TheDoyler23
November-18th-2005, 08:04 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5081948
Cabrera should take a big step forward in '06
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Dayn Perry / Special to FOXSports.com
Posted: 22 hours ago
Whether you're an observer of baseball in general, devotee of a particular team or impassioned fantasy player, you're no doubt in fevered pursuit of that elusive beast called the "breakout player."
As we approach the year 2006, we have a number of young talents coiled to make a notable leap forward. So let's a have a look at the best of that group.
Here are your top 2006 breakout performers — those who have already exhausted their rookie status and are ripe to make broad statistical strides in the upcoming season.
1. Daniel Cabrera, SP, Orioles :applause:
It's been mentioned many times before in this space:pitchers who strike out lots of batters and exhibit strong groundball tendencies tend to fare very well. In Cabrera's case, last season he joined A.J. Burnett and Carlos Zambrano (with Chris Carpenter narrowly Missing out) as the only pitchers to strike out at least eight batters per nine innings while maintaining a strikeout-to-walk ratio of at least 1.50. That means he's primed to take a major step forward in 2006.
Of course, let's not forget that the inestimable Leo Mazzone is now Cabrera's pitching coach in Baltimore. Those intangibles add up to Cabrera being the top '06 breakout candidate in all of baseball.
2. Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins
Expect Justin Morneau to make major strides in 2006. (Tom Pidgeon / Getty Images)
Coming into the 2005 season, Morneau was regarded as one of the most promising power prospects in recent memory (.528 career SLG in the minors); however, in his first full season in Minnesota, Morneau flopped to the tune of .239 AVG/.304 OBP/.437 SLG. Those are disappointing numbers, but there were mitigating circumstances.
This past season, Morneau endured a bone spur in his left elbow and a serious concussion, and this previous winter, he battled a long and bizarre list of maladies: appendicitis requiring emergency surgery, a cyst requiring minor surgery, pneumonia and chicken pox. To boot, many of Morneau's failures in 2005 were owed to his low batting average, and AVG is the traditional offensive statistic most prone to random variation. Given better health, expect Morneau to make major strides in '06.
3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians
How does a 22-year-old center fielder who batted .289 and tallied 70 extra-base hits "break out"? By doing even better. Sizemore, the lavishly gifted young Indian, will put up MVP-quality numbers in his prime; and if last season is any guide he may arrive sooner rather than later. Don't be surprised if Sizemore slugs better than .500 in 2006, gets on base at a .370 clip or better and mashes 30 homers. You may be witnessing the early hours of a Hall-of-Fame career.
4. Brandon McCarthy, SP, White Sox
McCarthy, the minor league strikeout leader in 2004, endured some fits and starts in Chicago this past season. However, after the All-Star break, he logged the following stat line for Chicago: 42.2 innings, 31 strikeouts, eight walks, 1.69 ERA. Ozzie Guillen made the puzzling decision to leave McCarty off the postseason roster, but his future remains exceptionally bright. McCarthy's only 22, and he possesses a tremendous minor league dossier. He'll be a quasi-ace for Chicago in 2006.
5. J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers
Don't be surprised if J.J. Hardy emerges as the best all-around shortstop in the NL next season. (John Grieshop / Getty Images)
Hardy fields his position well and has a promising bat. Last season, he was coming off major shoulder surgery, and that no doubt dampened his numbers in the first half. Hardy's overall 2005 stats don't look terribly impressive, but consider what he did at Milwaukee after being recalled from the minors: .308 AVG/.363 OBP/.503 SLG. It's perhaps a stretch to expect that level of production from him for the entirety of 2006, but don't be surprised if Hardy emerges as the best all-around shortstop in the National League next season.
6. Dan Haren, SP, A's
Tremendous minor league numbers, meet opportunity. Haren was long neglected in St. Louis, but last season in Oakland, he finally got a chance to stick in the rotation. He responded with 217 innings, a 3.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.73 ERA. Haren's always had the ability, and the A's have given him a chance to mature at the highest level. In 2006, he could emerge as a top-tier starter in the AL.
7. Austin Kearns, OF, Reds
The only thing standing between Kearns and near stardom is his serialized injury concerns. He flashed tremendous power and patience in the minors, and he's also a slick defender at the outfield corners. Last season, Kearns battled a serious hamstring injury, but he still tore it up at AAA-Louisville (.342 AVG/.407 OBP/.685 SLG) and, in Cincy, smacked 45 extra-base hits in only 387 at bats. If he's healthy, Kearns will rake in 2006, be that in Cincinnati or elsewhere.
8. Erik Bedard, SP, Orioles :applause:
Like Cabrera above, Bedard has the blessing of being tutored by Leo Mazzone. Also like Cabrera, Bedard has the numbers in his favor. This past season, the 26-year-old port-sider posted a 2.86 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.6 — both excellent marks. Before a knee injury sidelined Bedard in late May, he was having a Cy Young-caliber season. Those accomplishments and his outstanding record of performance in the minors augur well for his future.
9. Chad Orvella, RP, Devil Rays
Orvella's rookie season was a solid one (50 innings, 43 strikeouts, 3.60 ERA), but he was shut down late in the season because of shoulder inflammation. Still, he's one of the most promising relievers we've seen in some time. Just take a look at his cumulative minor league numbers: 111 innings, 1.46 R/G (!), 12.97 K/9, 5.11 H/9, 9.4 K/BB (!). Those are some profoundly impressive statistics. If his shoulder isn't seriously injured, he could emerge as one of the best setup men in baseball in 2006. Orvella's a future shutdown closer at the highest level, but he has the potential to be an elite reliever in the here and now.
10. Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels
Kotchman has, on balance, highly impressive minor league numbers, and if the Angels fail to sign Paul Konerko (a distinct possibility given the White Sox's impressive opening offer), he could see full-time duty in Anaheim next season. The Angels may move Darin Erstad back to center, and even if they don't, they could use a DH. As a result, Kotchman could get his chance.
Dayn Perry is a frequent contributor to FOXSports.com and author of the forthcoming book, "Winners: How Good Baseball Teams Become Great Ones" (Available soon at Amazon.com).
Cabrera should take a big step forward in '06
Story Tools: Print Email XML
Dayn Perry / Special to FOXSports.com
Posted: 22 hours ago
Whether you're an observer of baseball in general, devotee of a particular team or impassioned fantasy player, you're no doubt in fevered pursuit of that elusive beast called the "breakout player."
As we approach the year 2006, we have a number of young talents coiled to make a notable leap forward. So let's a have a look at the best of that group.
Here are your top 2006 breakout performers — those who have already exhausted their rookie status and are ripe to make broad statistical strides in the upcoming season.
1. Daniel Cabrera, SP, Orioles :applause:
It's been mentioned many times before in this space:pitchers who strike out lots of batters and exhibit strong groundball tendencies tend to fare very well. In Cabrera's case, last season he joined A.J. Burnett and Carlos Zambrano (with Chris Carpenter narrowly Missing out) as the only pitchers to strike out at least eight batters per nine innings while maintaining a strikeout-to-walk ratio of at least 1.50. That means he's primed to take a major step forward in 2006.
Of course, let's not forget that the inestimable Leo Mazzone is now Cabrera's pitching coach in Baltimore. Those intangibles add up to Cabrera being the top '06 breakout candidate in all of baseball.
2. Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins
Expect Justin Morneau to make major strides in 2006. (Tom Pidgeon / Getty Images)
Coming into the 2005 season, Morneau was regarded as one of the most promising power prospects in recent memory (.528 career SLG in the minors); however, in his first full season in Minnesota, Morneau flopped to the tune of .239 AVG/.304 OBP/.437 SLG. Those are disappointing numbers, but there were mitigating circumstances.
This past season, Morneau endured a bone spur in his left elbow and a serious concussion, and this previous winter, he battled a long and bizarre list of maladies: appendicitis requiring emergency surgery, a cyst requiring minor surgery, pneumonia and chicken pox. To boot, many of Morneau's failures in 2005 were owed to his low batting average, and AVG is the traditional offensive statistic most prone to random variation. Given better health, expect Morneau to make major strides in '06.
3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians
How does a 22-year-old center fielder who batted .289 and tallied 70 extra-base hits "break out"? By doing even better. Sizemore, the lavishly gifted young Indian, will put up MVP-quality numbers in his prime; and if last season is any guide he may arrive sooner rather than later. Don't be surprised if Sizemore slugs better than .500 in 2006, gets on base at a .370 clip or better and mashes 30 homers. You may be witnessing the early hours of a Hall-of-Fame career.
4. Brandon McCarthy, SP, White Sox
McCarthy, the minor league strikeout leader in 2004, endured some fits and starts in Chicago this past season. However, after the All-Star break, he logged the following stat line for Chicago: 42.2 innings, 31 strikeouts, eight walks, 1.69 ERA. Ozzie Guillen made the puzzling decision to leave McCarty off the postseason roster, but his future remains exceptionally bright. McCarthy's only 22, and he possesses a tremendous minor league dossier. He'll be a quasi-ace for Chicago in 2006.
5. J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers
Don't be surprised if J.J. Hardy emerges as the best all-around shortstop in the NL next season. (John Grieshop / Getty Images)
Hardy fields his position well and has a promising bat. Last season, he was coming off major shoulder surgery, and that no doubt dampened his numbers in the first half. Hardy's overall 2005 stats don't look terribly impressive, but consider what he did at Milwaukee after being recalled from the minors: .308 AVG/.363 OBP/.503 SLG. It's perhaps a stretch to expect that level of production from him for the entirety of 2006, but don't be surprised if Hardy emerges as the best all-around shortstop in the National League next season.
6. Dan Haren, SP, A's
Tremendous minor league numbers, meet opportunity. Haren was long neglected in St. Louis, but last season in Oakland, he finally got a chance to stick in the rotation. He responded with 217 innings, a 3.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.73 ERA. Haren's always had the ability, and the A's have given him a chance to mature at the highest level. In 2006, he could emerge as a top-tier starter in the AL.
7. Austin Kearns, OF, Reds
The only thing standing between Kearns and near stardom is his serialized injury concerns. He flashed tremendous power and patience in the minors, and he's also a slick defender at the outfield corners. Last season, Kearns battled a serious hamstring injury, but he still tore it up at AAA-Louisville (.342 AVG/.407 OBP/.685 SLG) and, in Cincy, smacked 45 extra-base hits in only 387 at bats. If he's healthy, Kearns will rake in 2006, be that in Cincinnati or elsewhere.
8. Erik Bedard, SP, Orioles :applause:
Like Cabrera above, Bedard has the blessing of being tutored by Leo Mazzone. Also like Cabrera, Bedard has the numbers in his favor. This past season, the 26-year-old port-sider posted a 2.86 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.6 — both excellent marks. Before a knee injury sidelined Bedard in late May, he was having a Cy Young-caliber season. Those accomplishments and his outstanding record of performance in the minors augur well for his future.
9. Chad Orvella, RP, Devil Rays
Orvella's rookie season was a solid one (50 innings, 43 strikeouts, 3.60 ERA), but he was shut down late in the season because of shoulder inflammation. Still, he's one of the most promising relievers we've seen in some time. Just take a look at his cumulative minor league numbers: 111 innings, 1.46 R/G (!), 12.97 K/9, 5.11 H/9, 9.4 K/BB (!). Those are some profoundly impressive statistics. If his shoulder isn't seriously injured, he could emerge as one of the best setup men in baseball in 2006. Orvella's a future shutdown closer at the highest level, but he has the potential to be an elite reliever in the here and now.
10. Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels
Kotchman has, on balance, highly impressive minor league numbers, and if the Angels fail to sign Paul Konerko (a distinct possibility given the White Sox's impressive opening offer), he could see full-time duty in Anaheim next season. The Angels may move Darin Erstad back to center, and even if they don't, they could use a DH. As a result, Kotchman could get his chance.
Dayn Perry is a frequent contributor to FOXSports.com and author of the forthcoming book, "Winners: How Good Baseball Teams Become Great Ones" (Available soon at Amazon.com).