The rumored McGahee deal and Betts' value

[Rufus T Firefly]

The rumor is that McGahee will be shipped to the Ravens for a 2nd and 5th. If true, it at least ends the talk about RBs "being worth a max of a 3rd rounder", after the T. Jones deal. Of course, Baltimore's 2nd is late, but the 5th adds value. Because of contract status, I still think Betts may carry more value than Willis.

No idea if we will trade him, but I think this (if true) at least changes the parameters on trade value a little.

Just sayin.....

[kappaluvacee]

Betts isn't going anywhere. That would leave our team at a weakness at the RB position. Our feature back is returning from injury and the thrid back is a special teamer. Won't happen dude!

[JoeGibbsThickandthin]

Betts was a second rounder himself. And he has played above that.

So why would they trade him now that he is signed?

[bigyim]

The question you have to ask yourself is this: with the draft such a hit-and-miss proposition, why are proven players not reaping #1 draft choices in trades anymore?

It's because of the salary cap...draft choices have become more valuable than current veterans, because they bring cheaper players.

In this case, however, that's why Betts is such a hot property to other teams...he is a starting caliber running back, who has a very affordable contract. He'll get paid less than any of the unproven RB commodities that will come out of the first 2 rounds in this year's draft.
That's worth gold...and it's why the Redskins shouldn't trade him for merely a 2nd rounder.
There are other reasons I can think of as to why we shouldn't trade him at all, but that's the main one.

[D-Day]

I just wonder what his trade value could be if he gets 1000 yards rushing and 500 yds receiving this year.

[drjim94]

We do not!!! Let me repeat do not trade Betts!!! He has done everything we want him to do as a core redskin. He Keeps his mouth shut, plays hard, had a huge season, and signed for low money to remain a Redskin. You do not trade that kind of core redskin away. Plus, in todays nfl you need two good running backs.

[D-Day]

Well since this thread is pretty much on his value due to his contract. If we were to trade him here are the numbers

Cost to trade him this year for us = 4.305 mil extra cap hit.


What the inheriting team will have to pay
this year = .595 Salary and .100 Roster = .695 cap hit
08 = .605 Salary and cap hit
09 = .900 Salary + .100 Roster Bonus = 1 mil cap hit
10 = 1.4 mil Salary + .100 roster Bonus = 1.5 mil Cap hit
11 = 1.4 mil + .100 Roster = 1.5 mil cap hit
12 = 1.4 mil + .100 roster = 1.5 Cap hit

That folks is worth a 1st round pick.

THAT SAID DO NOT TRADE BETTS

Look at those numbers. DO NOT TRADE BETTS

[taylor362183]

Betts isnt going anywhere and I dont want him to go any where. Betts and Portis in the backfield....WOW:eaglesuck :eaglesuck :eaglesuck

[Rufus T Firefly]

Well since this thread is pretty much on his value due to his contract. If we were to trade him here are the numbers

Cost to trade him this year for us = 4.305 mil extra cap hit.


What the inheriting team will have to pay
this year = .595 Salary and .100 Roster = .695 cap hit
08 = .605 Salary and cap hit
09 = .900 Salary + .100 Roster Bonus = 1 mil cap hit
10 = 1.4 mil Salary + .100 roster Bonus = 1.5 mil Cap hit
11 = 1.4 mil + .100 Roster = 1.5 mil cap hit
12 = 1.4 mil + .100 roster = 1.5 Cap hit

That folks is worth a 1st round pick.

THAT SAID DO NOT TRADE BETTS

Look at those numbers. DO NOT TRADE BETTS

As I said to you earlier, he is due a $2 mil bonus this year, which an acquiring team will have to pay (which adds a whopping 400K to his cap figures every year), which would make the net hit to us around 1 mil.

Secondly, I am grateful that none of the myriad people posting "Don't trade him. Period!"-type of things don't actually work in our front office. That would be just a horrendously bad mind-set for them to take.

[D-Day]

that 2 mil isn't guaranteed already? I thought it would be one of those split Guaranteed Signing bonus things the skins are famous for.

http://www.skinsfans.com/pcinoz/Salaries%20-%20Detail.htm

this says the 2.1 mil bonus is due in 08. He got a 3.5 mil SB and he is due a .100k bonus later this year.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/08/AR2006120800804.html

Washington's five-year contract extension offer. Sources said it included a $3.5 million signing bonus and $5.5 million in guaranteed money, $100,000 workout bonuses and could be worth up to $11 million in total

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_previousnews.aspx?sport=NFL&id=138

Redskins signed Ladell Betts to a five-year, $11 million extension, with $5.5 million guaranteed in the first year of the contract.

Here is where you are getting your info from I guess.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2691260
He got $3.5 million in signing bonus money this year and a $2 million roster bonus in 2007. With half of the money going to him early, Betts figured it was the best of all worlds.

It looks like PC has the bonus on the wrong year and it should be on this year, but all the other articles but the ESPN one shows it at a guaranteed bonus.

I tend to believe PC on these issues as he hasn't been wrong, maybe a bit behind some days on updating, and his insider released the Smoot and Fletcher contracts exactly a day before the press did.

[Genghis Khan]

We made the mistake of trading to get Duckett lets not make another mistake by trading away betts.

[Rufus T Firefly]

that 2 mil isn't guaranteed already? I thought it would be one of those split Guaranteed Signing bonus things the skins are famous for.

http://www.skinsfans.com/pcinoz/Salaries%20-%20Detail.htm

this says the 2.1 mil bonus is due in 08. He got a 2.8 mil SB and he is due a .100k bonus later this year.

It is guaranteed, but it isn't due yet.

I'm not sure why people assume a guaranteed bonus due later wouldn't automatically be transferred to the new team, but I haven't seen any reason or proof to think that. It would be the same as if his salary was guaranteed for 08, and that would certainly be paid by the trading team. Just like in baseball or basketball. Or, to look at it another way, the cap relief we looked for on Springs' contract in a trade was to delay a payment on a guaranteed bonus until after the trade. Same thing was discussed with the Coles deal. Don't see any reason this would be different. But if someone has proof that I'm wrong, I'm open to it.

And, even were that the case, it would be easy to change the language in the contract to facilitate that. Just throw Betts an extra 100K, if necessary.

[D-Day]

I edited my original, I think the guaranteed bonus part makes it kind of in the same realm as already paid. I wonder if betts would change the language but I also wonder if that would affect his compensation.

[RDSKNfaithfull]

Didn't the Bears give up there 2nd rounder as well?

Also Mcgahee >>>>> Betts

[Rufus T Firefly]

I edited my original, I think the guaranteed bonus part makes it kind of in the same realm as already paid. I wonder if betts would change the language but I also wonder if that would affect his compensation.

Again, you're making that assumption, but I haven't found any reason to think that. While the evidence I sited at least suggests the opposite is the case.

And no, I don't think that affects compensation much. He is still basically going to cost 1 mil a year for a couple, and maxing out at 1.9.

[D-Day]

Didn't the Bears give up there 2nd rounder as well?

Also Mcgahee >>>>> Betts

Yes he did and no he is not.

someone posted in another thread the stats and Betts is actually better and he has less wear and tear on his body. His fumbles could be improved.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Didn't the Bears give up there 2nd rounder as well?

Also Mcgahee >>>>> Betts

Yes, they traded up in the 2nd, which was considered 3rd round value. Which is what I mentioned in the first post, that Clayton and others have said that 3rd round value was basically max for a vet RB.

And McGahee may be better than Betts (though many think Betts started to become a top-notch guy this year), but he has an injury history and is 1 year from a huge FA payday, while Betts is signed long-term for cheap. Tarde value wise, Betts should be worth more.

[mi6]

Betts was a second rounder himself. And he has played above that.

So why would they trade him now that he is signed?

Still not convinced that Betts is the real deal.

When it counted he was ineffective in getting the tough 1st down yards or the end zone. He is a fumbler...

The holes the o-line opened for him were huge. Someone's grandma could run thru them.

[D-Day]

I just googled my ass off and I can't find any infor either way if it is counted for us or against us, so no one really knows either way. With the cap room we have available it is not really a problem though.

Not signing NC may have done wonders for this team.

[Seabee1973]

Betts was a second rounder himself. And he has played above that.

So why would they trade him now that he is signed?


Portis was a second rounder and has played above that. Betts defiantly hasnt played like a seconder rounder

[LoudMouth12thMan]

Betts isn't going anywhere. That would leave our team at a weakness at the RB position. Our feature back is returning from injury and the thrid back is a special teamer. Won't happen dude!
:applause: :1stplace:

[Oldskool]

Portis was a second rounder and has played above that. Betts defiantly hasnt played like a seconder rounder

Up to last year, people were rightfully saying that he was a waste of a 2nd round pick (myself included).

One good year out of 6 doesn't instantly make up for the other 5 that he just floundered on the bench or on IR.

[XxSpearheadxX]

The question you have to ask yourself is this: with the draft such a hit-and-miss proposition, why are proven players not reaping #1 draft choices in trades anymore?

It's because of the salary cap...draft choices have become more valuable than current veterans, because they bring cheaper players.

In this case, however, that's why Betts is such a hot property to other teams...he is a starting caliber running back, who has a very affordable contract. He'll get paid less than any of the unproven RB commodities that will come out of the first 2 rounds in this year's draft.
That's worth gold...and it's why the Redskins shouldn't trade him for merely a 2nd rounder.
There are other reasons I can think of as to why we shouldn't trade him at all, but that's the main one.

This is a great great post. Plus the lockeroom would probably be a little upset if we traded a semi-stud RB who signed a hometown discount contract. It would be very upsetting, and at this point it isn't going to happen, once LB signed that contract, all this talk is over.

[HoyaSkins28]

only trade him if we can get a stellar deal for him

[ClintonINFORSIX26]

The Ravens blow

[Smokeskins]

why do people want to get rid of betts???, what happens (god forbid) if cp gets hurt again???

[Taurus82]

We do not!!! Let me repeat do not trade Betts!!! He has done everything we want him to do as a core redskin. He Keeps his mouth shut, plays hard, had a huge season, and signed for low money to remain a Redskin. You do not trade that kind of core redskin away. Plus, in todays nfl you need two good running backs. amen my brother

[jivelikenice]

Betts also in comparison to Mcgahee did not have the major knee injury and is signed to a very fcap friendly contract which would make him more desirable in the market....

[Buddha]

Why exactly did they trade away their only experienced RB???

[Thirtyfive2seven]

We do not!!! Let me repeat do not trade Betts!!! He has done everything we want him to do as a core redskin. He Keeps his mouth shut, plays hard, had a huge season, and signed for low money to remain a Redskin. You do not trade that kind of core redskin away. Plus, in todays nfl you need two good running backs.

I agree with everything you said, except the part about trading a running back for more picks in the draft. RB's are a dime a dozen. Betts has been great here, and done everything asked of him, but if we can get extra picks then trade his butt

[HEavyJumbo85]

The Ravens blow

So short yet so sweet...It's hard to believe that no one had made this point...

I just can't stand there smug sense of Baltimorianess (p.s. no offense to Baltimorians that root for the Redskins, soley directed at Ravens fans).

:ravensuck

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

as ive stated before, if portis is fully recovered and back to 05 form, betts will be invisible again, just like he was every year until last year. he fumbles too much and he has no breakaway speed whatsoever, and if we dont end up trading him, he'll be worthless next year to any team but us. i knwo everyone looooooves keeping "core redskins" around, but if we can get very good value in return for him im all for it, and anyone who wants this team to succeed should be for it too. but im assuming he will stay a redskin, and he will rot on the bench like he has for since 02. if you dont believe me, go pull his stats.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Still not convinced that Betts is the real deal.

When it counted he was ineffective in getting the tough 1st down yards or the end zone. He is a fumbler...

The holes the o-line opened for him were huge. Someone's grandma could run thru them.



exactly, we were deluded into thinking betts was so good. do you really think that betts just turned it on 5 years into his career?? doubtful, our o-line was bulldozing people off the line, you could have driven a yacht through most of those holes. he has no breakaway speed, fumbles waaaaaaaay too much, and the endzone is betts' kryptonite. and other teams think hes good now and we need to unload him while we can. anybody can back up portis like betts did last year, betts is nothing special.

[Skins PR]

Well with McGahee being traded for Baltimore's 3rd, next year's 3rd (equal to a 4th this year), and 7th I think we can only draw one conclusion... our front office sucks.

Further proof of how we were shafted on the Portis for Bailey trade. Granted Portis had racked up better stats then McGahee but he still wasn't worth giving up the only shutdown corner in the league plus a 2nd rounder. I'm surpirsed that noone has ever pointed how bad of a move this was prior to my doing so just now.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Well with McGahee being traded for Baltimore's 3rd, next year's 3rd (equal to a 4th this year), and 7th I think we can only draw one conclusion... our front office sucks.

Further proof of how we were shafted on the Portis for Bailey trade. Granted Portis had racked up better stats then McGahee but he still wasn't worth giving up the only shutdown corner in the league plus a 2nd rounder. I'm surpirsed that noone has ever pointed how bad of a move this was prior to my doing so just now.


um somebody usually complains about the portis/bailey trade just about every day.

[SnyderMustGo]

Granted Portis had racked up better stats then McGahee but he still wasn't worth giving up the only shutdown corner in the league plus a 2nd rounder.

Are you SURE about that?

Portis has been here for 3 seasons.
Over the last three seasons, here is how Portis and McGahee stack up:

2004-2006
Clinton Portis: 38 games; 822 carries 3,354 yards, 23 TDs 4.08 ypc; 14 20yd+ runs; 168 1st Downs
Willis McGahee: 40 games; 868 caries 3,365 yards, 24 TDs 3.87 ypc; 18 20yd+ runs; 183 1st Downs

We can argue all day long about how great we think Portis is, but the stats show he isn't any more productive or worth any more than McGahee is.

[Skins PR]

Are you SURE about that?

Portis has been here for 3 seasons.
Over the last three seasons, here is how Portis and McGahee stack up:

2004-2006
Clinton Portis: 38 games; 822 carries 3,354 yards, 23 TDs 4.08 ypc; 14 20yd+ runs; 168 1st Downs
Willis McGahee: 40 games; 868 caries 3,365 yards, 24 TDs 3.87 ypc; 18 20yd+ runs; 183 1st Downs

We can argue all day long about how great we think Portis is, but the stats show he isn't any more productive or worth any more than McGahee is.

I'm in agreement with you. I was talking about the stats he had in Denver prior to the trade.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Are you SURE about that?

Portis has been here for 3 seasons.
Over the last three seasons, here is how Portis and McGahee stack up:

2004-2006
Clinton Portis: 38 games; 822 carries 3,354 yards, 23 TDs 4.08 ypc; 14 20yd+ runs; 168 1st Downs
Willis McGahee: 40 games; 868 caries 3,365 yards, 24 TDs 3.87 ypc; 18 20yd+ runs; 183 1st Downs

We can argue all day long about how great we think Portis is, but the stats show he isn't any more productive or worth any more than McGahee is.



and here is portis and mchagee for 04 and 05 when both were healthy.


Portis: 31 games, 695 carries, 2831 yards, 16 TDs, 4.07 YPC, 11 20+ yd runs, 139 1st downs.

McGahee: 32 games, 609 carries, 2375 yards, 18 TDs, 3.89 YPC, 14 20+ yard runs, 135 1st downs.


mcgahee has never rushed for over 1300 yards in a season, portis has done that in every season other than last season when his shoulder got pwned. portis is better out of the backfield as well. if portis had been healthy when our o-line clicked, my god he would have racked up the yards.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

theyre both very good runningbacks, and i think mcgahee is going to do very well in baltimore next year. but i think portis is an all around better player. mcgahees ypc is always under 4, which isnt good.

[SnyderMustGo]

and here is portis and mchagee for 04 and 05 when both were healthy.


Portis: 31 games, 695 carries, 2831 yards, 16 TDs, 4.07 YPC, 11 20+ yd runs, 139 1st downs.

McGahee: 32 games, 609 carries, 2375 yards, 18 TDs, 3.89 YPC, 14 20+ yard runs, 135 1st downs.

If you want to do it that way, I'm still not sure it makes Portis that much better. McGahee has more TDs, more 20+ carries, and almost as many 1st downs in 90 less carries.

Moreover, when evaluating a runningback, you can't overlook injuries. McGahee hasn't been the most healthy back either. But my point is not to say Portis sucks, but to say that we are kidding ourselves to say that Portis that much better.


if portis had been healthy when our o-line clicked, my god he would have racked up the yards.

Doesn't it strike you as a little bit odd that you are arguing the o-line didn't click until Betts was in there? That's a really convenient excuse for Portis, isn't it?

________

We need to take off the homer goggles and be straight up with ourselves. Portis is not great. If we could ship him off and make the team better by doing so, then we should consider it. But this argument that Portis is worth so much that he is not replaceable is silly. He could be replaced by McGahee or 10 other rbs in the league. It is likely Betts could do admirably as well.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

If you want to do it that way, I'm still not sure it makes Portis that much better. McGahee has more TDs, more 20+ carries, and almost as many 1st downs in 90 less carries.

Moreover, when evaluating a runningback, you can't overlook injuries. McGahee hasn't been the most healthy back either. But my point is not to say Portis sucks, but to say that we are kidding ourselves to say that Portis that much better..


i wouldnt say portis is tons better, i just think hes proven he can rush for 1500 yards in a season whereas mcgahee cannot. hes got better ypc than mcgahee, and if you look at his 2 years in denver, he was definitely the better back (hell even last year his numbers with mcgahee were night and day). but i think mcgahee is a great RB and im not taking anything away from him.



Doesn't it strike you as a little bit odd that you are arguing the o-line didn't click until Betts was in there? That's a really convenient excuse for Portis, isn't it?.


considering betts had done nothing at all up until the last few games of the season, im willing to give portis the benefit of the doubt. he also somehow managed to score 7 touchdowns on 523 yards whereas betts only had 4 on 1154 yards. it was pretty clear our o-line was attempting to do more of the zone blocking business because our running game drastically changed once gibbs got all mad and went back to "redskins football". betts did pretty much nothing until portis went out (if you negate the run fest we had on the texans, betts was avg 3.5 yards per carry) then somehow our o-line wakes up, we go back to oldschool smash mouth and betts is getting 5+ per carry. i dont buy that betts figured out how to be a top tier running back during his 5th season in the league for the last 6 games.



We need to take off the homer goggles and be straight up with ourselves. Portis is not great. If we could ship him off and make the team better by doing so, then we should consider it. But this argument that Portis is worth so much that he is not replaceable is silly. He could be replaced by McGahee or 10 other rbs in the league. It is likely Betts could do admirably as well.


portis proved last season when he is healthy, he is a 1500 yard back. there arent a lot of other RBs that can match this production. if you wanna trade portis for larry johnson, just tell me where to sign, but ill pass on willis mcgahee.

[TheDane]

Why exactly did they trade away their only experienced RB???

Holy ****!

A Buddha sighting!

[[[ghost]]]

I wouldn't trade Betts for draft picks, unless they're in the top half of the second. and even then, they'd have to be multiple. Because otherwise, we're just using those picks to make up for Betts.

[pjfootballer]

We need to keep Betts. We'll probably bring CP along slowly the first few weeks. I doubt he'll play in preseason. We'll need Betts for the first few weeks.

[D-Day]

In regards to our questions about the value of trading Betts, I emailed JLC and questioned him about the 2 mil bonus Betts is due this year.

Here is my email.

JLC,

Love your blog and thanks for your hard work. I have a question regarding the potential trade of one L Betts. He is due a 2 mil bonus either this year or next. Most papers and articles reported (when he signed the extension) that he will be getting 5.5 mil guaranteed. He received a 3.5 mil signing bonus (of which .700k was accounted for last year) and a 2 mil bonus that was guaranteed.

If the skins trade him today before the 2mil bonus is paid, would we still be responsible for it on the cap. I know we are responsible for the 2.8 mil signing bonus that is left. I assume that once a bonus is deemed guaranteed then we are responsible for it. For instance SS is due a payment this year also and by all accounts we are responsible for it if we trade him before the payment is physically paid.

I hope this isn't too confusing, any questions about it I will be at this email all night.

Thanks for your time.

HIS REPLY


******, thanks for checking in.
On a guaranteed bonus such as that there is generally langauge called a "non-exercise clause," which basically assures that the player will still get the money (over a set portion of years) and that money is then accelerated for cap purposes should he be cut or traded. So that would increase his "dead cap" money in this scenario.
Betts is in demand because he signed a very modest deal, but I don't see the Skins trading him for precisely that reason.
Also, if a team did get Betts I could see him holding out for a new contract given the craziness going around in free agency. Bottom line is I don't see it happening unless Denver or Green Bay make an offer along the lines of the McGahee deal, if not better.
Thanks again for the great email and have a great weekend.
Cheers.

[pjfootballer]

My post in another McGahee/Portis comparison:

Portis was having his worst year of his career, yet had only 16 carries a game for 8 games (7 started) for 523 yards. If he ONLY average 16 carries the rest of the way at 4.1 yards a pop, he'd have ended up with 1,051 yards.

McGahee played and started 14 games and had 990 yards at 3.8 yards a pop at 19 carries a game. So if he had've played in 16 games, McGahee would have ended up with 1134 yards, or only 83 more yards than Portis in his WORST year.

Mcgahee has found the endzone rushing only 11 times in the past TWO years while Portis had 7 in 8 games this season and 18 the last 2 years.

So, NOOOOO, Mcgahee is not the better back. Stats don't lie, remember?

[Muzzah]

Betts is a good back, I'm glad we arent trading him. When he stops fumbling, we will be able to get more out of him