A very VERY interesting poll- Zogby.

[Kilmer17]

At this point, I have NO idea who is going to get the nominations. But I do know this, If McCain finishes strong in Iowa and somehow wins NH, he'll sew it up Super Tuesday. How insane is that. 6 months ago he was dead in the water, 3 months ago insignificant. 3 weeks ago an afterthought, and boom!! He gets a bunch of key endorsements and he starts to skyrocket-

This is getting to be alot of fun.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1404

The interesting one is that McCain is the closest GOPer vs Obama head to head-


UTICA, New York - Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would defeat all five of the top Republicans in prospective general election contests, performing better than either of his two top rivals, a new Zogby telephone poll shows.

His margins of advantage range from a 4 percent edge over Arizona Sen. John McCain and a 5 percent edge over Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee to an 18 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the survey shows. Against New York’s Rudy Giuliani he leads by 9%, and against Fred Thompson of Tennessee he holds a 16 point edge.


Romney Huckabee Giuliani McCain Thompson
Obama Obama leads 53%-35% Obama leads 47%-42% Obama leads 48%-39% Obama leads 47%-43% Obama leads 52%-36%

The telephone survey included 1,000 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/– 3.2 percentage points. The poll was conducted Dec. 12–14, 2007.

Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York would defeat Romney by a narrow 46% to 44% margin and Thompson by a 48% to 42% margin. She would lose to Huckabee 48% to 43%, to Giuliani 46% to 42%, and to McCain by a 49% to 42% margin. The data suggest that Clinton has improved her position slightly. A November Zogby Interactive poll showed her losing by small margins to all five of the top GOP candidates.


Romney Huckabee Giuliani McCain Thompson
Clinton Clinton leads 46%-44% Huckabee leads 48%-43% Giuliani leads 46%-42% McCain leads 49%-42% Clinton leads 48%-42%

Democrat John Edwards of North Carolina would beat Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson, but would lose to Giuliani and McCain, the Zogby survey shows.


Romney Huckabee Giuliani McCain Thompson
Edwards Edwards leads 50%-38% Edwards leads 47%-41% Giuliani leads 45%-44% McCain leads 46%-42% Edwards leads 51%-35%

The performance of the Democratic candidates among independent voters is notable. For instance, Clinton trails Giuliani by one point (43% for Giuliani, 42% for Clinton among independents), but Obama leads Giuliani among independents by a huge 56% to 31% edge. Edwards leads Giuliani, 52% to 38% among independents. Clinton has similar trouble among independents against McCain, in that she trails with 37% support to his 46% support. In a prospective Obama versus McCain match–up among independent voters, Obama leads, 51% to 35%. Edwards and McCain are tied at 42% apiece among independents.

[Midnight Judges]

That is interesting. So now we get to see if the primary voters care if a nominee can go all the way. McCain ticked off the Republican base before, they might hold that grudge. And somehow Hillary polls well with Democrats but piss poor among independants.

If the election turns out to be McCain vs. Obama I'll be happy.

[Predicto]

If the election turns out to be McCain vs. Obama I'll be happy.

Me too. At least the political discourse will be measured and focused on the issues. America could do far worse (and has).

[Kilmer17]

Me too. At least the political discourse will be measured and focused on the issues. America could do far worse (and has).

me three.

Okay, maybe that should be my last post of the year.

[Sarge]

So McCain is going to knock Billary and Obama off for the Democratic nomination?

[Midnight Judges]

So McCain is going to knock Billary and Obama off for the Democratic nomination?

:laugh: case in point.

[JohnLockesGhost]

So long as it's not Giuliani or Huckabee.

[Sarge]

A McCain nomination would hand the presidency to the Dems, even if John Poser was to somehow win the nomination

McCAin alienated a LARGE part of the conservative base by siding with Bush this last summer on amnesty


Maybe that's why the media is playing him up so

[Predicto]

Maybe openly catering to the conservative base is not the way to win this election.

Maybe the conservative base is not as focused on illegal immigration as the only issue that matters, the way they were a few months ago.

[Sarge]

Maybe openly catering to the conservative base is not the way to win this election.

Maybe the conservative base is not as focused on illegal immigration as the only issue that matters, the way they were a few months ago.

The conservative base stayed home or voted for conservative Dems in the last election largely because of immigration. They bombarded Congress and the Senate with phone calls over the Bush/McAin amnesty

They'll do the same if McCain is the nominee. Staying home equates to a Dem victory

[PleaseBlitz]

Maybe openly catering to the conservative base is not the way to win this election.

Maybe the conservative base is not as focused on illegal immigration as the only issue that matters, the way they were a few months ago.


Am i right in assuming that the major issue during the actual voting is going to be the economy?

[Predicto]

The conservative base stayed home or voted for conservative Dems in the last election largely because of immigration. They bombarded Congress and the Senate with phone calls over the Bush/McAin amnesty

They'll do the same if McCain is the nominee. Staying home equates to a Dem victory

Maybe. I'm not sure of that. There are a lot of voters in the middle who are tired of strict partisanship and could be swayed. McCain appeals to them much more than some other candidates.

[Predicto]

Am i right in assuming that the major issue during the actual voting is going to be the economy?

I dunno, but I bet national security, the economy, health care, and the perception of the candidates' personal integrity are all much bigger issues right now than immigration is.

[Sarge]

I dunno, but I bet national security, the economy, health care, and the perception of the candidates' personal integrity are all much bigger issues right now than immigration is.

So you figure a Dem has a chance how?

[Predicto]

So you figure a Dem has a chance how?


snicker.

Tell you the truth, to me McCain is the Republican that is most dangerous to the Democrats, even more than Guiliani. I'd love to see Huckabee or Thompson get the nomination, because I am pretty sure that the great middle ground wants nothing to do with social conservatism this year.

[Larry]

Am i right in assuming that the major issue during the actual voting is going to be the economy?

Probably. It almost always is.

Although, since there's no incumbent, "bad economy" doesn't necessarily equal "other party wins".

But I think there will be a lot of voters voting based on who they think will make the economy better.

[Tarhog]

I respect McCain, but the truth is, he's a hothead. He's never been able to control his temper, and its a liability. Its kept him from getting the nomination to date, and if he somehow gets the nomination, I'm betting it'll keep him from winning.

I value an even-keel termperament and calmness in a President. I think we need that quality. And as much as I respect McCain for a) having values and principles and sticking to them, and b) for the service and sacrifice he embodies, I'm not sure he has the right stuff to be a President.

If he gets the nomination though, I'll be rooting for him.

[Rdskns2000]

That is interesting. So now we get to see if the primary voters care if a nominee can go all the way. McCain ticked off the Republican base before, they might hold that grudge. And somehow Hillary polls well with Democrats but piss poor among independants.

If the election turns out to be McCain vs. Obama I'll be happy.


That would be a good race. You won't the usual spin but an honest discussion of where to lead the country.

[PeterMP]

A McCain nomination would hand the presidency to the Dems, even if John Poser was to somehow win the nomination

McCAin alienated a LARGE part of the conservative base by siding with Bush this last summer on amnesty


Maybe that's why the media is playing him up so




1. McCain is running well in the national polls in a direct match up with Hillary or Obama.



2. Presidential elections are different than off year elections because more people come out to vote so the base is less important.



3. Before Bush, it was common practice to try and "reach" out to as many voters as possible. Bush changed that (especially last election) w/ his focus on making his base happy. Now Bush won so that strategy worked, but that doesn't meant the old one can't work again.



4. Maybe the voters weren't upset over that one issue. Maybe it wasn't even much of an issue, but they were more upset by a Commander-in-chief that refused to change strategy even though strategy being used clearly wasn't working (McCain was one of the early if not first politicians calling for a surge and one of the first Republicans criticizing Rumsfeld), a federal goverment that didn't seem to be able to find something that they didn't want to spend money on (McCain has been talking about controlling spending for a long time now), and they weren't happy that the part that was suppossed to be cleaning up goverment was as corrupt as the other party (McCain has never had a serious issue w/ corruption). By the way, I've seen where several Republican House members made comments to the extent if Rumsfeld would have been replaced 3 months earlies they would have won. I didn't see a single one mention the immigration law that failed to pass.

[Teller]

Maybe the conservative base is not as focused on illegal immigration as the only issue that matters, the way they were a few months ago.

That's probably true; and it's akin, IMO, to the liberal base and Iraq. That focus has certainly shifted since the surge appears to have been at least somewhat effective.

The only difference is, the liberal base has moved away from the war, based on success. I wish I could say the same about the conservative base's move from illegal immigration. I really can't explain the reason for the shift there at all.