Michigan "Latest" 1-7-08 Poll Numbers

[prophet]

Romney is in serious trouble.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

From the Rossman Group (January 6 - 7) -

Huckabee 23

Romney 22

McCain 18

Giuliani 8

Thompson 4

Paul 3

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If this "Holds up" a Michigan win, Huck is leading by 20% in SC, and is now leading in FL... Romney is done, and Huck is on path to win the Nomination.

[prophet]

http://www.rossmanmartin.com/press_releases/article_read.cfm

LANSING, Mich. — With the New Hampshire Primary and Iowa Caucus now complete, the next stop on the road to the White House is the Michigan January 15 Presidential Primary. With the nation’s eyes now on the Great Lake state, a new survey of Michigan Presidential Primary voters shows Mike Huckabee with a one-point lead in the GOP race, and a tenuous Hillary Clinton lead over the second place finisher, “Uncommitted.”

According to the latest Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor survey, the GOP contest in Michigan is now shaping up as a battle between Mike Huckabee (at 23 percent), Mitt Romney (at 22 percent) and John McCain (at 18 percent). Further back in fourth place, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani continues to drop (eight percent).

Trailing are Fred Thompson (at 4 percent), and Ron Paul (at 3 percent). Uncommitted scored 13 percent of the vote. Rounding out the field were Duncan Hunter (at one percent), Tom Tancredo (at less than one percent) and Sam Brownback (at zero percent) – thirteen percent favored “Uncommitted” while seven percent were “unsure.”

“The Republican primary in Michigan is coming down to a three-way scrum between Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and John McCain” said Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO of The Rossman Group. “The real loser is Rudy Giuliani, who didn't even get to double digits here this time around. Proving that being first out of the gate doesn't get you to the finish line."

Meanwhile, among a Democratic field that does not include Barack Obama or John Edwards, Hillary Clinton (at 48 percent) is now looking over her shoulder at the threesome of “Uncommitted” (at 28 percent), “unsure” (at 11 percent) and “other” (at 10 percent).

The other Democrats – Dennis Kucinich (at three percent), Christopher Dodd (at one percent) and Mike Gravel (at one percent) – lag considerably behind.

“I think the big stories shaping up in Michigan are Huckabee’s leap to the top of the GOP field, and general dissatisfaction among Democratic Primary voters with the absence of marquis candidates on the ballot,” said John T. Reurink, president of Michigan Information & Research Service Inc. (MIRS newsletter).”


click to read full story

[PeterMP]

Romney is in serious trouble.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

From the Rossman Group (January 6 - 7) -

Huckabee 23

Romney 22

McCain 18

Giuliani 8

Thompson 4

Paul 3

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If this "Holds up" a Michigan win, Huck is leading by 20% in SC, and is now leading in FL... Romney is done, and Huck is on path to win the Nomination.

I believe that Michigan is also one of those tricky states like NH (and to a certain extent even more tricky) in that people can cross over parties to vote. So as a registered Dem, I could vote in the GOP primary.

I'm pretty sure this is the case. How many Dems are going to cross over for Huck? Not as many for McCain for sure, and I'll bet even Romney draws more. How was this poll done?

If I'm right, and it is just Hillary on the Dem. ballot, this poll is completely meaningless (and I normally back polls).

[China]

Meanwhile, among a Democratic field that does not include Barack Obama or John Edwards, Hillary Clinton (at 48 percent) is now looking over her shoulder at the threesome of “Uncommitted” (at 28 percent), “unsure” (at 11 percent) and “other” (at 10 percent).

Wait, in a field that does not include Obama and Edwards, Clinton still can't get more than half the vote? :laugh: That's sad.
I guess it shows how many people just plain dislike her.

[prophet]

I believe that Michigan is also one of those tricky states like NH (and to a certain extent even more tricky) in that people can cross over parties to vote. So as a registered Dem, I could vote in the GOP primary.

I'm pretty sure this is the case. How many Dems are going to cross over for Huck? Not as many for McCain for sure, and I'll bet even Romney draws more. How was this poll done?

If I'm right, and it is just Hillary on the Dem. ballot, this poll is completely meaningless (and I normally back polls).
The Rossman Polling is the best there is.

Check out what was predicted for NH for the GOP
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html

Here is Iowa,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

And Nationally,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

[DjTj]

Wait, in a field that does not include Obama and Edwards, Clinton still can't get more than half the vote? :laugh: That's sad.
I guess it shows how many people just plain dislike her.The Democratic Party of Michigan is instructing supporters of Obama, Edwards, and Richardson to vote "uncommited." (pdf) (http://www.michigandems.com/Guide.pdf)

This is a really weird situation with the Republicans contesting the election while the Democrats are not. If I were in Michigan, I would definitely cross over to the Republican side and maybe vote for McCain. Trying to predict that kind of behavior through polling is going to be very tricky.

[Larry]

So why's Hillary unopposed in Mich?

Did Obama and Edwards both go to Ohio State?

[DjTj]

So why's Hillary unopposed in Mich?

Did Obama and Edwards both go to Ohio State?Michigan moved its primary to January in violation of the calendar that the Democratic and Republican National Committees had set. The Democratic candidates agreed to boycott the state so none of them have campaigned there. Hillary was leading by like 30% in the polls at the time, so Edwards, Obama, Biden, Richardson, and Kucinich withdrew their names from the ballot. (Kucinich missed the deadline for the paperwork so his name is still on the ballot :doh: )

[Larry]

I suspected something like that.

Last I heard, the Florida Democratic primary won't count (The Dems say they won't seat any delegates from Florida), and the GOP is only going to count half of Florida's delegates. The Dems, at least, are also threatening financial retaliation against any candidate who campaigns here.

Seems really stupid to me, even by the standards of the Democratic Party.

After all, wouldn't want the Dems to nominate somebody based on how well he does in Florida or anything.

(It's also been pointed out that the Democratic Party is punishing Florida for something that the Republicans in Tallahassee did.)

[DjTj]

I suspected something like that.

Last I heard, the Florida Democratic primary won't count (The Dems say they won't seat any delegates from Florida), and the GOP is only going to count half of Florida's delegates. The Dems, at least, are also threatening financial retaliation against any candidate who campaigns here.

Seems really stupid to me, even by the standards of the Democratic Party.

After all, wouldn't want the Dems to nominate somebody based on how well he does in Florida or anything.

(It's also been pointed out that the Democratic Party is punishing Florida for something that the Republicans in Tallahassee did.)Yeah, the Democrats are boycotting Michigan and Florida.

It is kind of a perverse situation, but I think the Democratic Party probably figured that Hillary was winning the nomination in a landslide so they didn't really need to test the waters in Florida or Michigan. The Republicans didn't have a candidate, so they really need the open competition. The candidates themselves were probably very happy to avoid having to campaign all across Florida or to pay for TV ads in huge markets like Miami or Tampa Bay ... the Republicans probably were just unable to reach consensus because Rudy and Huckabee are really counting on Florida while Romney and McCain really wanted Michigan.

Michigan's primary is only for the President, so it's not really a big deal if nobody votes in it. Florida is trying to vote on some constitutional amendments as well, and the Democratic side is really going to suffer on those from low turnout.

I really don't understand why Florida moved up - they're already a really important state in electoral politics. It's not like they'll be ignored ... why rock the boat? :whoknows:

[PeterMP]

I believe the Dems stripped the Fl and MI of all of their delegates for moving their primary up (the GOP did 1/2) so in terms of delegates winning those elections is meaningless for the Dems so as a result nobody is campaigning there and voting for a Dem there is worthless.

The way to do this in terms of polls is just to poll the whole population, and then try and figure out who the actual likely voters are, which will be tricky.

[PeterMP]

The Rossman Polling is the best there is.

Check out what was predicted for NH for the GOP
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html

Here is Iowa,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

And Nationally,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

You do understand that Rossman isn't Rasmussen don't you? They are two different things.