CNN: World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011

[China]

World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011 (http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/08/12/world.population/index.html)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The world's population is forecast to hit 7 billion in 2011, the vast majority of its growth coming in developing and, in many cases, the poorest nations, a report released Wednesday said.

A staggering 97 percent of global growth over the next 40 years will happen in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the Population Reference Bureau's 2009 World Population Data Sheet.

"The great bulk of today's 1.2 billion youth -- nearly 90 percent -- are in developing countries," said Carl Haub, a co-author of the report. Eight in 10 of those youth live in Africa and Asia.

"During the next few decades, these young people will most likely continue the current trend of moving from rural areas to cities in search of education and training opportunities, gainful employment, and adequate health care," Haub continued, calling it one of the major social questions of the next few decades.

In the developed world, the United States and Canada will account for most of the growth -- half from immigration and half from a natural increase in the population -- births minus deaths, according to the report.

High fertility rates and a young population base in the developing world will fuel most of the growth, especially in Africa, where women often give birth to six or seven children over a lifetime, the report says. The number is about two in the United States and 1.5 in Canada.

A stark contrast can be drawn between Uganda and Canada, which currently have about 34 million and 31 million residents, respectively. By 2050, Canada's population is projected to be 42 million, while Uganda's is expected to soar to 96 million, more than tripling.

Click on the link for the full article

[Kosher Ham]

I guess the Africans are trying to make up for the American black males in prison or jail.

[twa]

As my brother said growing up, "You better learn to be productive or to fight well" or "I got mine and I'm likely gonna take your's" :gap:

[PokerPacker]

I guess we're about due for a plague or a war, aren't we?

[Renegade7]

I guess the Africans are trying to make up for the American black males in prison or jail.

That's uncalled for and truely classless.

We are getting to the point that countries need to learn how to take care of themselves at the very least. We have people in this very country dying from hunger and preventable diseases due to lack of medical care. Plus, we're out here shelling out all this money to help stablizie some societies and people still hate our guts.

Stop giving fish, it's time to help them get to the point they can catch their own fish, if you catch my drift.

[Boots]

I guess we're about due for a plague or a war, aren't we?

War, desease, and the other two horsemen of the appocolypse, that I can never remember.

[Old Bay]

War, desease, and the other two horsemen of the appocolypse, that I can never remember.

Famine and Snuggles. Watch out for that Snuggles, he's a mean hombre.:silly:

[boobiemiles]

I guess it's time to start looking into space exploration, and find some other planet to screw up an utilize it's natural resource. Or we could always manufacter a sexually transmitted disease that covertly curves third world population....oh we already did that.

[Destino]

Population control still taboo? I'll check back in 10 years. Not hard to see where the population explosion leads.

[China]

When will the 7 billionth human be born? (http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228344.500-when-will-the-7-billionth-human-be-born.html)

ON 31 October, a newborn baby somewhere in the world will become the 7 billionth member of the human race. Or so says the UN - alternatively, this date could be at least a year too early.

Behind the UN's patina of certainty may lie outdated and unreliable census data. The suspicion is that millions of births and deaths have not been counted and there is huge uncertainty about the rate at which women are giving birth.

The precise "day of 7 billion" may not matter much. But the inaccuracies make it harder to answer a more important question: is human population set to peak within the next few decades or will it carry on growing beyond that?

Wolfgang Lutz of the Vienna Institute of Demography says the UN is "under political pressure to disregard uncertainty and name a date" for 7 billion. But he and colleague Sergei Scherbov estimate that the world probably won't reach 7 billion until early in 2013, though it could be as late as 2020.

The director of the UN population division Hania Zlotnik defends her data but agrees that "an interval of a few months or even a year would be a reasonable range of uncertainty".

Click on the link for the full article

[Predicto]

Of course, what the story doesn't tell us is that the growth rate has slowed dramatically as huge parts of the third world move out of poverty. Things are actually getting better on the population front, not worse.

Oh, and Kosher Ham shows a nice bit of class there. Grow up.

[Forehead]

In his defense, KH's comment is over 2 years old, and since I don't remember him usually posting like that, there's a possibility it could have been a reference to another thread going on at the time; that happens frequently.

[China]

Of course, what the story doesn't tell us is that the growth rate has slowed dramatically as huge parts of the third world move out of poverty. Things are actually getting better on the population front, not worse.

Oh, and Kosher Ham shows a nice bit of class there. Grow up.

Well they do say this:


The UN says world population will still be rising in 2100. Scherbov says there is an 85-per-cent chance it will have peaked by then. But nobody knows for sure.

Which means it's still a guess as they both don't have accurate census data and accurate forecasting models. If it is anywhere close to the 10 billion the UN forecasts, I'll be glad I'm dead by 2100.

[Predicto]

In his defense, KH's comment is over 2 years old, and since I don't remember him usually posting like that, there's a possibility it could have been a reference to another thread going on at the time; that happens frequently.

Fair enough. I didn't notice the date. I'm going to presume that is the situation and apologize to Kosher Ham.

[Goingforburgundy]

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Looks bad if the same trends follow for the next 25 years. We could reach a point where we wont be able to feed everyone

[Elessar78]

http://www.emaxhealth.com/files/imagecache/large/wesley%20warren.png

[Predicto]

Looks bad if the same trends follow for the next 25 years. We could reach a point where we wont be able to feed everyone

Actually, it looks pretty good if the same trends follow for the next 25 years. Population growth has been slowing since the 1980s. As the third world pulls itself out of poverty, it is expected to slow even further.

The biggest reason for the growth is that people live so much longer than they used to even a couple of decades ago. And because of the demographic delay, the absolute world population numbers continue to rise, and will keep doing so for a while. But the long term trends are actually reasonably good, not bad.

http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/7668/worldpopulationgrowthra.gif (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/841/worldpopulationgrowthra.gif/)

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/9219/world1.gif (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/703/world1.gif/)

(click on the second graph to see it more clearly)

[China]

Here's a UN report on the subject. There figures seem to correspond to the US ones Predicto posted, especially Figure 1:

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf