jbooma
July-17th-2003, 03:26 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2003/07/17/news/economy/recession.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes
Group declares recession over
Economists say downturn ended in November 2001 but note the job market's still very weak.
July 17, 2003: 1:42 PM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The panel that decides U.S. business cycles Thursday declared the economy pulled out of its recession after eight months in November 2001 and is now in a recovery phase.
The announcement from the National Bureau of Economic Research confirmed what many economists already believed: that the economy has resumed growing, albeit slowly.
"The committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in November 2001," the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee said in a statement.
In making the determination, the panel of top-notch academic economists made clear it was not passing judgment on the economy's current health.
"In determining that a trough occurred in November 2001, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity," it said.
In fact, it took note that employment -- one of the key factors it considers in making recession calls -- was stuck in the doldrums. "Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all," it said.
Members of the panel, widely accepted as the arbiter of U.S. business cycles, had said determining when the recession ended had been complicated by the surprising gains in the productivity of U.S. businesses, which had enabled firms to boost output while laying off workers.
They recently decided to give more weight to measures of U.S. gross domestic product in their deliberations, a decision NBER President Martin Feldstein said would likely make it easier to conclude when the recession ended.
GDP, the broadest measure of the nation's economy, has been growing slowly since late 2001, and the panel noted that it was now 3.3 percent above its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2000.
The committee said the length of the downturn, which started in March 2001, was "slightly less than average" for recessions in the post World War II period
Group declares recession over
Economists say downturn ended in November 2001 but note the job market's still very weak.
July 17, 2003: 1:42 PM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The panel that decides U.S. business cycles Thursday declared the economy pulled out of its recession after eight months in November 2001 and is now in a recovery phase.
The announcement from the National Bureau of Economic Research confirmed what many economists already believed: that the economy has resumed growing, albeit slowly.
"The committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in November 2001," the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee said in a statement.
In making the determination, the panel of top-notch academic economists made clear it was not passing judgment on the economy's current health.
"In determining that a trough occurred in November 2001, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity," it said.
In fact, it took note that employment -- one of the key factors it considers in making recession calls -- was stuck in the doldrums. "Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all," it said.
Members of the panel, widely accepted as the arbiter of U.S. business cycles, had said determining when the recession ended had been complicated by the surprising gains in the productivity of U.S. businesses, which had enabled firms to boost output while laying off workers.
They recently decided to give more weight to measures of U.S. gross domestic product in their deliberations, a decision NBER President Martin Feldstein said would likely make it easier to conclude when the recession ended.
GDP, the broadest measure of the nation's economy, has been growing slowly since late 2001, and the panel noted that it was now 3.3 percent above its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2000.
The committee said the length of the downturn, which started in March 2001, was "slightly less than average" for recessions in the post World War II period