OF: 2010 Redskins: Great Expectations?

[Om]

2010 Redskins: Great Expectations?
July 14, 2010

T minus 14.

With training camp just two weeks away, focus is rapidly turning to the micro—can Donovan McNabb still move; who will start at free safety; how quickly can the offensive line gel and adjust to the new schemes, etc. The obvious macro question, of course, remains ...

How will the Washington Redskins do this year?

If you'll indulge me a minute, allow me to answer with a question:

What is a reasonable expectation?

Given their circumstances—coming off an ugly 4-12 season, replacement of their head coach, general manager and (apparently) entire modus operandi, installation of new systems on both sides of the ball, new quarterback and multiple additional new players—how exactly should one define “success” for the 2010 Redskins?

By wins alone? By some subjective assessment of "progress?"

Scenario 1: the Redskins start fast, say 5-3, stumble a bit down the stretch as the league gets a book on them, but claw out a tough win in the finale to go 9-7 and grab the final playoff spot. They then lose a lackluster road Wildcard game to the Eagles, 19-10.

Scenario 2: the Redskins start slow, say 3-5, struggling to find their new identity, but recover to go 4-4 over the tough second half of the season, including two solid wins against good teams to close out the year, and finish 7-9.

Sitting here today, which scenario would you define as more successful, hopeful, preferable ...?

CLICK HERE (http://www.theomfield.com/2010/07/2010-redskins-great-expectations.html) to read more

[MattFancy]

Good post OM. I say there is no reason for us to win at least 8 games. Looking at the schedule, we have 4 games that I'd say we should win (Rams, Lions, Bucs, Jags). So that would mean going 4-8 in our other games, which wouldn't be hard to do. I can honestly see us going 10-6 and getting the #5 seed.

[VPromuto65]

I would be happy with 8-8 and movement towards a more cohesive team where the best player plays each week amidst stiff competition. We haven't seen that in years.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

As attractive as your first scenario is (playoff berth), it would remind me too much of 2008. I think, as counter-intuitive as this sounds, I'd rather see a slow start and steady build to end the season. I'd like to see us have some momentum going into 2011 and the hopes that we are going to continue to get better. If we fade down the stretch and regress during the year...even if we get into the playoffs, it will have a "we better make a magical run this year" feel to it (like 2007 did).

[mdpell]

Great read as always Om. The most interesting point I saw in there that I certaily agree with pertains the the crisis mode point you offered.

What will the team and the fanbase do if we start off poorly?

Since Bruce and Shanny have come to town the skins have seemingly done "all the right things." They didnt go after the big named free agents this offseason. (Peppers) They got two probowlers for great trades and they finally drafted Oline. There is also a no nonsense attitude around Redskins Park. From interviews it seems the players have bought in and from this board we can certainly see that the fanbase has bought in.

But how long does that optimism and and trust last if it simply doesnt turn into W's? It was easy to crucify Danny and Vinny for the poor management of this team but who do we blame if we start this season off 2-6?

[pjfootballer]

Not sure if I want to quantify the success with wins (even though that is what a team is ultimatley judged on), rather how we play. If we play with more passion, make less stupid mistakes, make the other team play to our level and not vice-versa, then it will be a successful season. Changing the losing culture into a winning attitude has been a breath of fresh air in the offseason. Instead of the team bragging which free agent they signed, Shanahan and Allen have let the players know that anything less than a committment to winning will not be tolerated.

[Chump Bailey]

I think so...

I have us NFC East Champions. I think our defense will be in the top five if we can stay healthy. I think McNabb is itching for some payback. I also hope we sign Westbrook. We have the talent on paper to make a strong run easily IMO. We make the playoffs this season and win it all next. Kyle and Mike will have #5 playing like a man possessed. I'm certain of it.

[hail2skins]

But how long does that optimism and and trust last if it simply doesnt turn into W's? It was easy to crucify Danny and Vinny for the poor management of this team but who do we blame if we start this season off 2-6?

We brought in an established coach in 2001 and looked horrible in starting 0-5 before a relatively decent finish. A poor start next season would surprise me but wouldn't shock me, but I'm confident that Dan wouldn't make the same mistake that he did at the end of 2001.

[gholmesbm]

I think one of the points Shanahan and Allen have made is that they intend to return the team to the state where we would expect to be a playoff team every year. I think they have also said that they don't expect to wait for that to happen.

We should have expectations to be a playoff team this year (therefore, 9-7, or better in all probability). Setting our expectations for the team lower than that is not the right message to the coaches and players. There is simply no point compromising the plan with low expectations based on previous disappointments.

[bulldog]

I expect the Redskins to add a veteran free safety before the start of the season as a backup as there is little experience at the position on the squad currently.

I also expect as noted before a last major move, one for a veteran wide receiver either via trade or signing of a released player who will have other bidders.

Assuming those two holes are addressed, I think the Redskins have made a remarkable turnaround in a single offseason.

The club has added 6 offensive linemen who could be on the opening roster (T. Williams, Brown, Hicks, Capers, Lichtensteiger and Cook).

Washington has also added 5 defensive linemen with the same chance (Holiday, Carriker, Kemoeatu, Green, and Bryant).

Going along with the acqusition of Donovan McNabb at QB, I think Shanahan and Allen have identified and tried to address the major need areas from 2009 (outside of WR).

[hail2skins]

I think one of the points Shanahan and Allen have made is that they intend to return the team to the state where we would expect to be a playoff team every year. I think they have also said that they don't expect to wait for that to happen.

We should have expectations to be a playoff team this year (therefore, 9-7, or better in all probability). Setting our expectations for the team lower than that is not the right message to the coaches and players. There is simply no point compromising the plan with low expectations based on previous disappointments.

I'm sure the coaches and players are going into the season expecting to win the NFC East and make noise in the playoffs.

I think what Mark was getting at was what record and other things we could live with in Shanahan's first year. Granted, I'm sure things have been raised somewhat by the acquisition of McNabb. But, as Om said, if we wind up in the .500 neighborhood with a relatively strong finish, it'll be tough to be very upset about that, especially given the crap we endured last year.

I'm giving Shanahan this season to get this team back to respectability. After that, though, I agree.......I want to have a team consistently in the playoffs during his tenure here.

[clskinsfan]

After last years debacle, i'll take 8-8 and be ecstatic. I dont have to have the playoffs this year. I just want to see an effective offense line up. After that garbage Zorn was pushing if we can score 21 points a game I'm happy.

[s0crates]

Great stuff as always Om.

[skins island connection]

IMO, there's this thing called swagger, and McNabb has it. It is catchy, and it will spread to other players, and if a player thinks he is better than their opponent, more than likely it will show on the field. It keeps players in a upbeat mood, and even if he throws 3 pics in the 1st game {which I hope he doesn't} he will still radiate a winning attitude to the other players, which is something that the previous qb and coach did not have.
One player cannot be bigger than the team, BUT one player can surely lift the team up into a winning attitude, and with Cooley back, Moss and Portis with a re-focused mentality, I fully expect for th' Skins to be the surprise team this year, and we all know its just a matter of time becofre we're back on top, where we belong...

[hail2skins]

**never mind...delete post**

[Om]

Thanks for the read and comments.

Looks like for the most part (at least among those responding here) most of us are keeping the expectations realistic. In the case of the 2010 Redskins, truth is the case can be made that "realistic" could include anything from a 10(ish) win season and playoff appearance to a game or two under .500.

Which is why I'm going to focus less on the win column and more on what my lyin' eyes tell me I "see" in terms of professionalims, passion, cohesion ... all those things that the team has paid great lip service to over the past decade plus, but tended to fall short on between the white lines late in games when all the words mean not one damn thing.

[addicted]

If we have McNabb for the entire season and don't win 7 games out of 16 I'll think it was a failure. If we win 7 or more it was a success in my opinion. If we lose McNabb I'll be happy with 6 wins.

Truth be told I have no doubt that whatever happens the majority will be disappointed. Fact is doubling our wins from last year would be a huge accomplishments, 100% improvement. But even doing that won't make people happy. It's a lose-lose for most. Just keep your expectations realistic. 8-8 is realistic. Anything more then that is icing

[wrecker]

I can see 10 wins and here is why:

The upgrade in coaching alone will give us 3 more wins this year. It will be hard to out-coach us as happened many times last year. Add that the players seem to be all in (-1)
and working very hard.

The defense will cause more turnovers and may actually score points to win us 1 more game this year.

The kick return game has to be better than the anemic display last year. ST will win us 1 more game this year.

And finally the overall upgrade at QB and OL will give us 2 more wins this year. McNabb will put the team on his shoulders and win 1 of them by himself.(probably against the fleagles)

So that is 7 games that puts us at 10-6 and hopefully into the paloffs!

Come on ! Drink the Koolade!

[ConnSKINS26]

I hate when people say "X gives us 2 more wins, Y gives us 3 more wins, and Z gives us another 2 wins!"

That's not how it works, people. That's over-simplistic, to say the least.

[illone]

Anything better than four wins will be progress as far as I'm concerned.

I could see 10 wins, though.

Ultimately, I won't be disappointed if that doesn't happen, though. I just expect these guys to play harder and more focused than last year.

[wrecker]

I hate when people say "X gives us 2 more wins, Y gives us 3 more wins, and Z gives us another 2 wins!"

That's not how it works, people. That's over-simplistic, to say the least.


Smart coaching= more wins
Defenses that score TDs= more wins
Special teams that score TDs= more wins
Quality QB and OL= more wins.

Seems simplistic to me. :eaglesuck

[ConnSKINS26]

Smart coaching= more wins
Defenses that score TDs= more wins
Special teams that score TDs= more wins
Quality QB and OL= more wins.

Seems simplistic to me. :eaglesuck

Not when you put a number on it, as if there's a conversion chart somewhere. That's too simplistic.

Nothing about this upcoming schedule is like last year's schedule: even the teams we play again are going to be very different. That's true every year. So taking last year's win total, and adding wins to it based on what we've done this off season, is in fact over-simplifying.

[hail2skins]

Truth be told I have no doubt that whatever happens the majority will be disappointed. Fact is doubling our wins from last year would be a huge accomplishments, 100% improvement. But even doing that won't make people happy. It's a lose-lose for most. Just keep your expectations realistic. 8-8 is realistic. Anything more then that is icing

As Om suggested, I think it depends on how we get there. If someone had told you before the start of the 2008 season that Zorn would wind up 8-8 in his first season as coach, you probably would have been OK with that. But the way the season unfolded, with the Skins being lifeless in the second half of the campaign, sure didn't inspire a lot of confidence.

Looking at the 2010 schedule I see the first half of the schedule being slightly more difficult than the second half, even though the 2009 combined records of the first half opponents (66-62) are worse than the combined records of the second half opponents (68-60). First half features four double-digit win teams, two dregs, and two middle-pack teams. Second half features three double-digit win teams, one dreg, and four middle-pack teams.

If I had to guess right now, I'd see the Skins going 4-4 in each half.

[CFarley311]

I think the most overlooked thing about the changes we've made is that the offensive changes and upgrades will make our DEFENSE better. How many times did we witness multiple 3 and outs in a row last year? This offense, I believe, will generate first downs and points, and let our boys on D get rest and be fresh the whole game. At the least, we should have a better chance of playing the field position game, and not forcing our defense into defending a short field. I think we'll win 9 or 10 games, but with the way the offense will help the defense and the defense will help the offense (field position and potential turnovers), I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL to see us 11-5 or 12-4.

[dcdiscokid]

I think 8-8 is realistic, and will satisfy me that we are headed in the right direction. Though I do not want to see a repeat of zorns first year where all those wins come at the beginning of the season, and we just collapse once other teams have the book on us.

[wrecker]

Not when you put a number on it, as if there's a conversion chart somewhere. That's too simplistic.

Nothing about this upcoming schedule is like last year's schedule: even the teams we play again are going to be very different. That's true every year. So taking last year's win total, and adding wins to it based on what we've done this off season, is in fact over-simplifying.

Ok, here is some more simplicity:

Everyone thought last year the schedule was easy....it wasn't.

Everyone thinks this year the schedule is hard....it won't be.

10-6 baby! :laugh:

[Philip Pease]

The Redskins are so different from last years Redskins that my expectation is only to see a competitive team that will leave me with high expectation for the future.

With any new system there is bound to be an initial drop-off in execution; but there will be an increase in enthusiasm. The defense going to a 3-4 is a big unknown and I am anxious to see how well we play defense. On offense the offensive line is where I expect to see real improvement just because they could not be as bad as last year. Having a proven QB with a better OL raises my hopes on offense.

Thinking in terms of wins & losses I expect a winning season based on a proven coaching staff, a proven QB, and an expectation of noticeable improvement in the offensive line play.

My expectations were crushed so badly last season that my only expectation going into this season is that we will be much improved.

[Dukes and Skins]

As others have stated, we have to be both optimistic but realistic with this team. Personally I think we could be any where from a 7-9 team to a 10-6 team but it all depends on a few things. Will the OL mesh and gel early or will it be a struggle the first few games and then develop at the end of the year? Will McNabb stay healthy? Will the 3-4 provide the big plays or expose or D more?

Those are all questions we will be able to figure out after the first few games(save McNabb's health). Right now I see us at 7-9 which is better than last year. By 2011(if there is a season) we could see our selves as one of the teams to beat in the NFC if we draft well and add more strategic signings