braindx
November-14th-2011, 05:14 PM
So I've been keeping track of how we are doing (as a whole) prediction wise in the previous threads.
Game 1: 66 predictions, 52 Skins win, 14 Giants win
Predicted scores:
Redskins 22.3 +/- 5.8 (95% confidence interval is 10.7 to 33.9 points)
Giants 17.2 +/- 5.6 (95% confidence interval is 6 to 28.4 points)
Actual Score = 28 – 14
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?353394-What-is-your-prediction-for-the-results-of-Sunday-s-Game
Game 2: 77 predictions, 71 Skins win, 6 Cardinals win
Predicted scores:
Redskins 29.3 +/- 6.1 (95% confidence interval is 17.1 to 41.5 points)
Cardinals 17.2 +/- 5.3 (95% confidence interval is 6.6 to 27.8 points)
Actual Score = 22 – 21
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?354079-Cardinals-Skins-Predictions-for-Week-2
Game 3: 99 Total, 74 Redskins win, 15 Cowboys win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 25.2 +/- 6.2 (95% confidence interval is 12.8 to 37.6 points)
Cowboys: 17.9 +/- 5.1 (95% confidence interval is 7.7 to 28.1 points)
Actual Score = 16 – 18
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?354748-Redskins-Cowboys-Predictions-for-Week-3
Game 4: 109 Total, 90 Redskins win, 19 Rams win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 23.1 +/- 7.0 (95% confidence interval is 9.1 to 37.1 points)
Rams: 16.0 +/- 6.2 (95% confidence interval is 3.6 to 28.4 points)
Actual Score = 17 – 10
Rudechain, Bigmuss1, and skinfan1957 all predicted it correctly! First time anyone has so far.
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?355243-Redskins-Rams-Predictions-for-Week-4/
Game 5: 96 Total, 62 Redskins win, 34 Eagles win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 23.5 +/- 6.9 (95% confidence interval is 9.7 to 37.3 points)
Eagles: 23.1 +/- 7.9 (95% confidence interval is 7.3 to 38.9 points)
Actual Score = 13 – 20
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?355999-Redskins-Eagles-Predictions-for-Week-5
Game 6: 117 Total, 87 Redskins win, 30 Panthers win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 21.3 +/- 5.8 (95% confidence interval is 9.8 to 33.0 points)
Panthers: 17.0 +/- 5.1 (95% confidence interval is 6.8 to 27.2 points)
Actual Score = 20 – 33
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?356659-Redskins-Panthers-Predictions-for-Game-6/
This is the first time that a team has scored more than the 95% interval prediction – Panthers DESTROYED our defense.
Game 7: 166 Total, 58 Redskins win, 108 Bills Win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 20.7 +/- 6.4 (95% confidence interval is 7.9 to 33.5 points)
Bills: 30.2 +/- 9.5 (95% confidence interval is 11.2 to 49.2 points)
Actual Score = 0 – 23
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?356995-Redskins-Bills-Predictions-for-Game-7
Our offense is terrible. But you already knew that.
Game 8: 114 Total, 33 Redskins win, 81 49ers Win
Predicted scores:
Redskins:13.1 +/- 8.5 (95% confidence interval is -3.9 to 30.1 points)
49ers: 24.3 +/- 10.5 (95% confidence interval is 3.3 to 45.3 points)
Actual Score = 11 – 19
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?357599-Redskins-49ers-predictions-for-Game-8
lol @ the -3.9 confidence interval points :(
Game 9: 74 Total, 22 Redskins win, 52 Dolphins Win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 13.5 +/- 6.4 (95% confidence interval is .7 to 26.3 points)
Dolphins: 17.9 +/- 6.0 (95% confidence interval is 5.9 to 29.9 points)
Actual Score = 9 – 20
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?358006-Skins-vs-Fins-Week-10-Predictions
Cumulative predictions
Actual offense and actual defense PPG
G1 = 28 -- 14
G2 = 25 -- 17.5
G3 = 22 -- 17.7
G4 = 20.8 -- 15.8
G5 = 19.2 -- 16.6
G6 = 19.3 -- 19.3
G7 = 16.6 -- 19.9
G8 = 15.9 -- 19.8
G9 = 15.1 -- 19.8
Offense totally sucks.... Defense has evened out at averaging about 20 points per game. Which is impressive because our offense sucks that much.
Predicted offense and predicted defense PPG
G1 = 22.3 -- 17.2
G2 = 26.1 -- 17.2
G3 = 25.7 -- 17.5
G4 = 24.9 -- 17
G5 = 24.6 -- 18.3
G6 = 23.9 -- 18
G7 = 23.2 -- 20.8
G7 = 21.8 -- 21.3
G7 = 21.2 -- 21.0
There's so many overall predictions that prediction O and D don't drop as fast as it actually is which is sad even though we've predicted 13.1 and 13.5 ppg for both the past two games and the offense has delivered a worse 11 and 9 points respectively.
As a collective whole in predictions we are:
G1 = 52 - 14 = 78.8%
G2 = 123 - 20 = 86.0%
G3 = 138 - 94 = 59.5%
G4 = 228 - 113 = 66.9%
G5 = 262 - 175 = 60.0%
G6 = 291 - 263 = 52.5%
G7 = 399 - 321 = 55.4%
G8 = 480 - 354 = 57.6%
G9 = 532 - 376 = 58.6%
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So yeah. I see us losing this next game something like 20-6.
Game 1: 66 predictions, 52 Skins win, 14 Giants win
Predicted scores:
Redskins 22.3 +/- 5.8 (95% confidence interval is 10.7 to 33.9 points)
Giants 17.2 +/- 5.6 (95% confidence interval is 6 to 28.4 points)
Actual Score = 28 – 14
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?353394-What-is-your-prediction-for-the-results-of-Sunday-s-Game
Game 2: 77 predictions, 71 Skins win, 6 Cardinals win
Predicted scores:
Redskins 29.3 +/- 6.1 (95% confidence interval is 17.1 to 41.5 points)
Cardinals 17.2 +/- 5.3 (95% confidence interval is 6.6 to 27.8 points)
Actual Score = 22 – 21
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?354079-Cardinals-Skins-Predictions-for-Week-2
Game 3: 99 Total, 74 Redskins win, 15 Cowboys win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 25.2 +/- 6.2 (95% confidence interval is 12.8 to 37.6 points)
Cowboys: 17.9 +/- 5.1 (95% confidence interval is 7.7 to 28.1 points)
Actual Score = 16 – 18
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?354748-Redskins-Cowboys-Predictions-for-Week-3
Game 4: 109 Total, 90 Redskins win, 19 Rams win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 23.1 +/- 7.0 (95% confidence interval is 9.1 to 37.1 points)
Rams: 16.0 +/- 6.2 (95% confidence interval is 3.6 to 28.4 points)
Actual Score = 17 – 10
Rudechain, Bigmuss1, and skinfan1957 all predicted it correctly! First time anyone has so far.
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?355243-Redskins-Rams-Predictions-for-Week-4/
Game 5: 96 Total, 62 Redskins win, 34 Eagles win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 23.5 +/- 6.9 (95% confidence interval is 9.7 to 37.3 points)
Eagles: 23.1 +/- 7.9 (95% confidence interval is 7.3 to 38.9 points)
Actual Score = 13 – 20
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?355999-Redskins-Eagles-Predictions-for-Week-5
Game 6: 117 Total, 87 Redskins win, 30 Panthers win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 21.3 +/- 5.8 (95% confidence interval is 9.8 to 33.0 points)
Panthers: 17.0 +/- 5.1 (95% confidence interval is 6.8 to 27.2 points)
Actual Score = 20 – 33
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?356659-Redskins-Panthers-Predictions-for-Game-6/
This is the first time that a team has scored more than the 95% interval prediction – Panthers DESTROYED our defense.
Game 7: 166 Total, 58 Redskins win, 108 Bills Win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 20.7 +/- 6.4 (95% confidence interval is 7.9 to 33.5 points)
Bills: 30.2 +/- 9.5 (95% confidence interval is 11.2 to 49.2 points)
Actual Score = 0 – 23
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?356995-Redskins-Bills-Predictions-for-Game-7
Our offense is terrible. But you already knew that.
Game 8: 114 Total, 33 Redskins win, 81 49ers Win
Predicted scores:
Redskins:13.1 +/- 8.5 (95% confidence interval is -3.9 to 30.1 points)
49ers: 24.3 +/- 10.5 (95% confidence interval is 3.3 to 45.3 points)
Actual Score = 11 – 19
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?357599-Redskins-49ers-predictions-for-Game-8
lol @ the -3.9 confidence interval points :(
Game 9: 74 Total, 22 Redskins win, 52 Dolphins Win
Predicted scores:
Redskins: 13.5 +/- 6.4 (95% confidence interval is .7 to 26.3 points)
Dolphins: 17.9 +/- 6.0 (95% confidence interval is 5.9 to 29.9 points)
Actual Score = 9 – 20
http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?358006-Skins-vs-Fins-Week-10-Predictions
Cumulative predictions
Actual offense and actual defense PPG
G1 = 28 -- 14
G2 = 25 -- 17.5
G3 = 22 -- 17.7
G4 = 20.8 -- 15.8
G5 = 19.2 -- 16.6
G6 = 19.3 -- 19.3
G7 = 16.6 -- 19.9
G8 = 15.9 -- 19.8
G9 = 15.1 -- 19.8
Offense totally sucks.... Defense has evened out at averaging about 20 points per game. Which is impressive because our offense sucks that much.
Predicted offense and predicted defense PPG
G1 = 22.3 -- 17.2
G2 = 26.1 -- 17.2
G3 = 25.7 -- 17.5
G4 = 24.9 -- 17
G5 = 24.6 -- 18.3
G6 = 23.9 -- 18
G7 = 23.2 -- 20.8
G7 = 21.8 -- 21.3
G7 = 21.2 -- 21.0
There's so many overall predictions that prediction O and D don't drop as fast as it actually is which is sad even though we've predicted 13.1 and 13.5 ppg for both the past two games and the offense has delivered a worse 11 and 9 points respectively.
As a collective whole in predictions we are:
G1 = 52 - 14 = 78.8%
G2 = 123 - 20 = 86.0%
G3 = 138 - 94 = 59.5%
G4 = 228 - 113 = 66.9%
G5 = 262 - 175 = 60.0%
G6 = 291 - 263 = 52.5%
G7 = 399 - 321 = 55.4%
G8 = 480 - 354 = 57.6%
G9 = 532 - 376 = 58.6%
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So yeah. I see us losing this next game something like 20-6.