Stats Lie: But let's take a look anyways

[KDawg]

We know that stats never tell the whole story, but let's take a look at them anyways, just to see where some of our guys stand:

Quarterbacks Rex Grossman and John Beck combined for 24 interceptions and 11 fumbles. That's 35 turnover opportunities between those two men alone. Furthermore, they combined for, including rushing touchdowns, 22 touchdowns. That, my friends is not getting the job done. But we knew that, and this has been discussed ad nauseum.

Our running backs were solid this year. Tim Hightower, Roy Helu, and Evan Royster combined for 291 carries, 1289 yards, 3 Rush TD, 4.42 YPC, 69 receptions, 533 yards, 2 TD, 2 fumbles. As a whole, those numbers aren't bad. What stands out as poor is TD production, as our backs only accounted for 5 touchdowns. That's the same number that wide receiver Jabar Gaffney accounted for.

Speaking of Gaffney, our receiving corps was led by Gaffney is receptions (68), yards (947) and TDs (5). He was second in yards per reception at 13.9 and only trailed Donte Stallworth who averaged 14.0 yards per. Fred Davis and Santana Moss had relatively decent years, especially considering their time missed. Davis had 59 receptions, 796 yards and 3 TD and Moss added 46 receptions, 584 yards and 4 TD.

Other receivers were total disappointments, such as Anthony Armstrong, who I'm not sure makes the cut next year. Armstrong appeared in 14 games and tallied 7 receptions for 103 yards. (Technically, he led the team in yards per reception, but given his low reception tally, I've left him out). He was outperformed by rookie wide receiver Leonard Hankerson who appeared in 10 less games. Hank had 13 receptions for 163 yards prior to his injury. Even Terrence Austin, and Logan Paulsen outperformed Armstrong (12/137 and 11/138 respectively)

Defensively, what can be said for London Fletcher that we haven't said time and time again? He led the NFL in tackles with 166. He also added 1.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 8 passes defensed, and 2 forced fumbles.

We had twelve players combine for 40 sacks. Contributors were: Brian Orakpo (9), Ryan Kerrigan (7.5), Stephen Bowen (6), Adam Carriker (5.5), Barry Cofield (3), Chris Neild (2), Kedric Golston, LaRon Landry, London Fletcher (1.5 each), Perry Riley, Rocky McIntosh (1 each) and OJ Atogwe (0.5)

As most of us know, nose tackles in the 3-4 generally aren't necessarily supposed to be getting sacks, although sacks are a welcome addition. Our noses added 5 sacks to our sack total. That's huge for this Redskin team who has struggled getting to the quarterback in the past.

As noted earlier, linebacker Perry Riley added a single sack, but he came on like a freight train at the end of the year. In 8 games started, and 16 games played in, he had 77 tackles. This isn't necessarily a great stat, considering he compiled tackles in games he didn't start, but if I were to break that down into tackles per game started he'd have 9.6 per game. London Fletcher averaged 10.37 per game. I'd say we found a player in Riley.

Outside backers Ryan Kerrigan and Brain Orakpo combined for 124 tackles, 16.5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD, 9 passes defensed, 7 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery and about 975 holds against them* :ols:

* denotes a totally fictional, unproven and unfounded statistic that I found humorous.

People like to dog cornerback DeAngelo Hall for his inability to tackle, but he finished second on the team in tackles with 90 total. Folks, it's never good when your corner is your second best tackler. And yes, some of that was due to Hall allowing receptions, but some of that was also due to outstanding hustle coming from DHall chasing down plays. Hall had a down year as far as interceptions are concerned, only tallying 3. He was, however, tied for the team lead with free safety OJ Atogwe. Cornerback Josh Wilson only had two picks, but he was a very, very good addition to the defense. He was solid in coverage all year long, which doesn't really show up on the stat sheet. Hall added 17 passes defensed and Wilson had 15 defensed. Of the two corners, coverage wise I'd say that Wilson was superior to Hall, for sure.

So there are some individual stats to take a look at. Hopefully, we continue to build this offseason, and we get rid of some deadweight... :)

CALIFAN007 ADDITIONAL INFO PROVIDED IN POST #6


We were 7th in sack percentage, which is pretty damn good ...

Just to give some perspective:

Sack Percentage ranking by Year

2011 - 7th
2010 - 30th
2009 - 5th
2008 - 25th
2007 - 27th
2006 - 32nd
2005 - 24th
2004 - 13th
2003 - 26th


I also remember seeing a comment on twitter about Orakpo being the first Skins player to get 8+ sacks in three consecutive years since Dexter Manley did it in the 80s lol...that's way too long.

HITMANDM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PROVIDED IN POST #9


We were 29th in Red Zone TD %, only scoring on 41.2% of our chances.

However, we were 4th in defensive Red Zone TD%, only allowing a TD on 43.9% of the chances

WILDBILL1952 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PROVIDED IN POST #68


Some OL Stats, while we're looking at stats:

Stuffed ranks - where a running back or QB is hit at or behind the line of scrimmage: Skins ranked 19th, which is better than the 28th they ranked last year, with 20% of all running plays failling in the "stuffed" category. Source http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol Stii bad, but improving.

The Skins ranked 3rd in sacks against us, which is always a dangerous stat to use, as a QB or covered receivers factor into that statistic. Same for QB hits. You can always blame some on the QB and some on the receivers, but a high number of QB hits plus sacks usually is a bad indication of a bad offensive line. On the other side of the coin, however, the Skins had the same number of sacks as the Green Bay Packers. The Skins had 41 sacks and 108 QB hits, making the Skins the 3rd worst in that totals column, but only 12th in counting only sacks. The two teams that were worse have acknowledged bad offensive lines - St. Louis and Seattle. Source: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...=PASSING_QBHIT

For the "QB makes the OL better crowd", I'm afraid the stats are a little confusing in that some support and some negate that theory.
Negating: Apparently Bradford must be a bad QB, as I have been told many times on this board that a good QB makes the OL better. Knowing he is a good QB makes me wonder about the theory. Supporting: Drew Brees and the Saints have the lowest sack + QB hits totals. What's a little strange is that the Campbell/Palmer Oakland Raiders seem to be the 6th best in this stat, meaning that Campbell/Palmer made the Skins/Cleveland line worse but made the Raiders line better somehow. I'll leave it to someone else to espouse this theory. I would say the stats do not support it.

[SWFLSkins]

Nice write up KDawg. I noticed you stayed away from Teams, lol. There are some rays of sunshine for sure if you don't stare into the black hole at QB.

[authentic]

Good post bro. Its obvious that we need more playmakers on this team... Especially on offense. Guys who can break tackles and take it 60 yards for a TD. WRs who could post up a DB and attack a jump ball. Trying not to be overly simplistic, but the point is that we are lacking in top tier talent at the skill positions. I like what we have in our RBs, i think they will continue to grow and improve. But otherwise we def need an upgrade. Its no doubt in my mind that will occur THIS offseason. It has to!!

[Goskinz0721]

Other receivers were total disappointments, such as Anthony Armstrong, who I'm not sure makes the cut next year. Armstrong appeared in 14 games and tallied 7 receptions for 103 yards. (Technically, he led the team in yards per reception, but given his low reception tally, I've left him out). He was outperformed by rookie wide receiver Leonard Hankerson who appeared in 10 less games. Hank had 13 receptions for 163 yards prior to his injury. Even Terrence Austin, and Logan Paulsen outperformed Armstrong (12/137 and 11/138 respectively)

I actuallly have a theory on the decline of AA and to a lesser extent, Santana: Rex's lack of arm strength. It's been noted that AA is the fastest Redskin and one of the fastest receivers in the NFL. Certainly Santana still has the speed to get deep, albeit not at the speed he had when he was younger. AA last year was the deep threat for McNabb. Rex just doesn't have the arm to hit these guys unless they are wide, wide open and can wait for the ball to flutter down to them. I think this hurt the use of AA as the games became passes underneath to Moss & Gaffney.

Just my $.02

[KDawg]

I don't know if anyone heard Shanahan, but apparently, and it's something I wish I would have noticed, we only had one touchdown that came from a pass that wasn't caught in the end zone.

One.

That needs to change.

Like, yesterday :ols:

[Hitman21ST]

A semi-inconsequential stat: Rex Grossman passes 10,000 passing yards for his career.

Something our next QB will do three years from now.

[Califan007]

We were 7th in sack percentage, which is pretty damn good :yes:...

Just to give some perspective:

Sack Percentage ranking by Year

2011 - 7th
2010 - 30th
2009 - 5th
2008 - 25th
2007 - 27th
2006 - 32nd
2005 - 24th
2004 - 13th
2003 - 26th


I also remember seeing a comment on twitter about Orakpo being the first Skins player to get 8+ sacks in three consecutive years since Dexter Manley did it in the 80s lol...that's way too long.

[KDawg]

Cali, I added that info to the OP. Excellent addition.

[Hitman21ST]

We were 29th in Red Zone TD %, only scoring on 41.2% of our chances.

However, we were 4th in defensive Red Zone TD%, only allowing a TD on 43.9% of the chances.

[Califan007]

was that the pass from Banks to Moss?

Shanny must have meant "from a QB" then, because the screen to Helu in the last game was the only one I could think of. If you include the one from Banks that would make it two...

[authentic]

I don't know if anyone heard Shanahan, but apparently, and it's something I wish I would have noticed, we only had one touchdown that came from a pass that wasn't caught in the end zone.

One.

That needs to change.

Like, yesterday :ols:

was that the pass from Banks to Moss?

---------- Post added January-3rd-2012 at 10:16 AM ----------


We were 7th in sack percentage, which is pretty damn good :yes:...

Just to give some perspective:

Sack Percentage ranking by Year

2011 - 7th
2010 - 30th
2009 - 5th
2008 - 25th
2007 - 27th
2006 - 32nd
2005 - 24th
2004 - 13th
2003 - 26th


I also remember seeing a comment on twitter about Orakpo being the first Skins player to get 8+ sacks in three consecutive years since Dexter Manley did it in the 80s lol...that's way too long.

now we need to get more FF as a result from those sacks. sort of like the Ravens who are (year in and year out) one of the top teams in forcing TOs. I think thats the next step for our defense.

[KDawg]

Where does that turnover # for our QB's rank versus the rest of the league I wonder?

Not sure, that's a lot of leg work. But, to be fair, they fumbled 11 times, but we did not lose all 11 of them. But I count a fumble as a turnover opportunity regardless. It's my opinion that recovering a fumble often depends on luck.

[da#1skinsfan]

Where does that turnover # for our QB's rank versus the rest of the league I wonder?

[KDawg]

was that the pass from Banks to Moss?

I'm not sure. Wish I could find the thread I read that in.

But I don't think they counted that play as one of them, pretty much because it was a trick play. I think Shanahan meant quarterback, typical type passing plays. Man, now it's bothering me that I can't remember where the heck I read that...

[authentic]

A semi-inconsequential stat: Rex Grossman passes 10,000 passing yards for his career.

Something our next QB will do three years from now.

:ols:... and how long has he been in the league? What a completely worthless stat for someone with his amount of experience. :doh:

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I'm not a huge Haslett fan, but I think our sack numbers are slightly inflated because he had no faith in his secondary and therefore decided that blitzing like crazy was the only hope for this team.

(I'm going on my gut with this because I can't find any blitz percentage stats which is driving me nuts).

[Hitman21ST]

:ols:... and how long has he been in the league? What a completely worthless stat for someone with his amount of experience. :doh:

Yeah, I noted that in the gameday thread.

Then I got to thinking about it how Brees, Stafford, et al passed for half that this season alone, and I facepalmed.

[S.T.real,lights,out]

Only 3 rushing TD's all season???!!!

Wow, that is terrible!

[KDawg]

Only 3 rushing TD's all season???!!!

Wow, that is terrible!

We actually had 8. There were only three between Helu, Hightower and Royster.

Beck had 2, Grossman had 1, Helu had 2, Hightower had 1, Young had 1, Torain had 1. But still not a good stat. It ranked 26th in the NFL. Our 19 pass TDs was good enough for 23rd in the NFL.

[Califan007]

Special Teams:

As you would guess, we were dead last in field goals blocked per game :ols: :doh:...and our FGs blocked percentage was a whopping 12.20%. Jeebus. The next closest were the Giants with 8.33%.

Excluding blocks, Gano made 86.11% of his FGs, which is a definite improvement. If you blame Gano for the blocks, though, it's not lol...

We were 6th in terms of fewest punts per game, which either means we had more lengthy drives than normal or Rex's turnovers eliminated any need to punt lol...

[Califan007]

Penalties:

Skins ranked 4th in terms of fewest penalties per game, which is excellent. But they ranked dead last in terms of yards per penalty...which means that while they didn't get penalties too often, when they DID commit a penalty it was usually a bad one :ols:...

[Enter Apotheosis]

I'm not a huge Haslett fan, but I think our sack numbers are slightly inflated because he had no faith in his secondary and therefore decided that blitzing like crazy was the only hope for this team.

(I'm going on my gut with this because I can't find any blitz percentage stats which is driving me nuts).

Honestly, I don't feel like we blitzed all that much relative to the rest of the league.

[Fergasun]

Reed Doughty's salary is > $0. That's a travesty.

[Califan007]

Honestly, I don't feel like we blitzed all that much relative to the rest of the league.
Neither do I, unless we count every time anyone other than a D-Lineman rushed the QB as a blitz, that is.

[Enter Apotheosis]

Neither do I, unless we count every time anyone other than a D-Lineman rushed the QB as a blitz, that is.

Yeah, it doesn't count if it's not a 5+ man rush.

We only have 4 or 5 sacks from non-DL, non-OLB players. That's the only immediately available statistic I can think of that points to us not being particularly blitz happy or, at the very least, not terribly exotic in the way we blitz.

[S.T.real,lights,out]

We actually had 8. There were only three between Helu, Hightower and Royster.

Beck had 2, Grossman had 1, Helu had 2, Hightower had 1, Young had 1, Torain had 1. But still not a good stat. It ranked 26th in the NFL. Our 19 pass TDs was good enough for 23rd in the NFL.

Man thats terrible. Look at a guy like McCoy who had 17 rushing TD's this season. Adding a guy like that is like adding a TD a game.

I cant even believe that there were what 9 teams that had fewer than us. :ols:

[Bang]

Special Teams:

As you would guess, we were dead last in field goals blocked per game :ols: :doh:...and our FGs blocked percentage was a whopping 12.20%. Jeebus. The next closest were the Giants with 8.33%.

Excluding blocks, Gano made 86.11% of his FGs, which is a definite improvement. If you blame Gano for the blocks, though, it's not lol...

We were 6th in terms of fewest punts per game, which either means we had more lengthy drives than normal or Rex's turnovers eliminated any need to punt lol...

Couldn't agree more..
Those six blocks knocked Gano from being a top ten kicker in FG% to 27th in the NFL.

As I've written over and over.. since Danny has been here the best we've ever finished in FG% is 19th, including 4 dead last finishes.
This year that had the chance to be completely blown away,, but somehow we just couldn't fix the problem of the entire center of the line caving in.

It's always something... but it's never Smith even though he's the common thread to ALL of our continuing special teams problems..
Strange how that works.

~Bang

[superozman]

DHall - about 10th in the league in passes defended too, a pretty good stat.

[Zhouse]

Out of the 19 new additions (FA signing and Draft):
-17 contributed in 2011.
-13 are legit starters/promising depth players.
-4 can still return in 2012 and become depth/rotational players
-Aldrick Robinson was signed to the roster in week 17. He may be back next year.

That's a pretty good job of scouting and bringing in young talent without wasting draft picks.

[Bang]

Penalties:

Skins ranked 4th in terms of fewest penalties per game, which is excellent. But they ranked dead last in terms of yards per penalty...which means that while they didn't get penalties too often, when they DID commit a penalty it was usually a bad one :ols:...

Our offense and defense were not penalized very much.. that was a definite positive.
The yards per penalty,,, factor in 6 kicks out of bounds.. which is 30 yards from the spot of the kick.
There's 180 yards in penalties right there.

~Bang

[Gurgeh]

Special Teams:

As you would guess, we were dead last in field goals blocked per game :ols: :doh:...and our FGs blocked percentage was a whopping 12.20%. Jeebus. The next closest were the Giants with 8.33%.

Excluding blocks, Gano made 86.11% of his FGs, which is a definite improvement. If you blame Gano for the blocks, though, it's not lol...



The field goal blocks were mainly down to the right side of the line. Whatever the problem is there, and I think it's down to the players more than the coach, it needs to get fixed as a priority.

[Skins Wingman]

This year that had the chance to be completely blown away,, but somehow we just couldn't fix the problem of the entire center of the line caving in.

It's always something... but it's never Smith even though he's the common thread to ALL of our continuing special teams problems..
Strange how that works.

~Bang

what is the freakin deal with the line collapsing? it happens every game, so it has to be a coaching thing. i see no benefit in telling the center and guards to just fall over, danny smith is a jack wagon.

have you also noticed on field goals and especially extra points that our team doesnt even try to block them? the edge rushers just kinda stand there, which is completely unacceptable. once again, it has to be a coaching thing.

we dont agree on much but this is one thing we do, fire danny smith.

[Bang]

we dont agree on much but this is one thing we do, fire danny smith.
Stick around!
Soon you will see how right i always am.
:silly:

~Bang

[MLSKINS]

I wonder how good has our Red Zone Defensive TD percentage has been in the last five years or so. For some reason every time an opponent is in the Red Zone I am so confident that they are going to get a FG.

[Bang]

The field goal blocks were mainly down to the right side of the line. Whatever the problem is there, and I think it's down to the players more than the coach, it needs to get fixed as a priority.

One time i'd agree.
Six times is a total trend, and a failure to address it.
If they all happened in bunches you could say 'well, a backup was messing up".. but six times over the course of 13 games is a failure to make adjustments to fix the problem.

~Bang

[I_Bleed_B&G]

A semi-inconsequential stat: Rex Grossman passes 10,000 passing yards for his career.

Something our next QB will do three years from now.

Drew Brees passed 10,000 yards in 2 years lol

[Califan007]

Couldn't agree more..
Those six blocks knocked Gano from being a top ten kicker in FG% to 27th in the NFL.

As I've written over and over.. since Danny has been here the best we've ever finished in FG% is 19th, including 4 dead last finishes.
This year that had the chance to be completely blown away,, but somehow we just couldn't fix the problem of the entire center of the line caving in.

It's always something... but it's never Smith even though he's the common thread to ALL of our continuing special teams problems..
Strange how that works.

~Bang

I think I've joined your anti-Smith bandwagon this season lol :mad:...

---------- Post added January-3rd-2012 at 11:18 AM ----------


Drew Brees passed 10,000 yards in 2 years lol

But not his FIRST two years lol...

Actually, it took Brees 5 years to pass the 10,000 yard mark.

[I_Bleed_B&G]

I think I've joined your anti-Smith bandwagon this season lol :mad:...[COLOR="Gold"]


But not his FIRST two years lol...

Actually, it took Brees 5 years to pass the 10,000 yard mark.
True...Is this Rexs' 2nd 3,000 yd passing year?

[Califan007]

True...Is this Rexs' 2nd 3,000 yd passing year?

Yep :yes:...once with the Bears and once with the Skins.

[I_Bleed_B&G]

Yep :yes:...once with the Bears and once with the Skins.

wow...This joker threw 25 ints in 2007 and only played in 8 games. LOOL

[Califan007]

wow...This joker threw 25 ints in 2007 and only played in 8 games. LOOL

??...Rex threw 7 INTs in 2007, not 25 :ols:...

[Dan T.]

have you also noticed on field goals and especially extra points that our team doesnt even try to block them? the edge rushers just kinda stand there, which is completely unacceptable. once again, it has to be a coaching thing.


Definitely noticed that lack of effort. It's tough to block kicks, but it's impossible if you don't even try. That needs to change.

[I_Bleed_B&G]

??...Rex threw 7 INTs in 2007, not 25 :ols:...

ooops. I went back and looked and I have no idea where I got the #25 from. Maybe I looked at sacks and that INT's lol

[Dan T.]

ooops. I went back and looked and I have no idea where I got the #25 from. Maybe I looked at sacks and that INT's lol


The sad fact remains that Rex Grossman has thrown more interceptions in his career than games played... 54 career games (47 starts), 60 career interceptions. That is ugly.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GrosRe00.htm

Edit: Looking into it a little more, he's in good company. Among other QBs who have thrown more career INTs than games played are Joe Namath, Dan Marino, Brett Favre. Their TD to INT ratio looks way better though.

[Alcoholic Zebra]

now we need to get more FF as a result from those sacks. sort of like the Ravens who are (year in and year out) one of the top teams in forcing TOs. I think thats the next step for our defense.

We're actually 7th in the league at FF, we just suck at recovering them.

[JerseyGator]

Peyton Manning threw 100 interceptions in his first five years. Rex has about three years worth of starts in his career. Eli Manning has had six years (5 1/2 technically) when he's thrown an average of 1 interception per game.

Redskins lead the NFL in total QB hits over the last 3 years on offense. Ask the Bears GM, who was fired in part because of his lack of signing quality OL, how important an OL is.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

We're actually 7th in the league at FF, we just suck at recovering them.

That's pure luck. We will recover more next year probably.

[KDawg]

Peyton Manning threw 100 interceptions in his first five years. Rex has about three years worth of starts in his career. Eli Manning has had six years (5 1/2 technically) when he's thrown an average of 1 interception per game.

Redskins lead the NFL in total QB hits over the last 3 years on offense. Ask the Bears GM, who was fired in part because of his lack of signing quality OL, how important an OL is.

Yet our favorite scapegoat, Don McNabb performed better than Grossman. Interesting.

OL is important, and we need to improve ours, but blaming the OL entirely is flat wrong.

[JerseyGator]

Where am I blaming the OL entirely. Of course it doesn't help that your two most talented players on offense are suspended for drugs and you used 4 running backs during the year. Can anyone name a more unstable offense in terms of personnel this year in the league? A QB is not a miracle worker despite what Madden/Fantasy Football implires.

Just keep ignoring the QB hit stat (which has only been measured by the NFL for 3 years) and see how many vet QBs want to play here.

[Califan007]

Yet our favorite scapegoat, Don McNabb performed better than Grossman. Interesting.


He did? If so, not by very much...

Completion %:
McNabb: 58.3
Grossman: 57.9

Yards per attempt:
McNabb: 7.2
Grossman: 6.9

TD percentage:
McNabb: 3.0
Grossman: 3.5

Fumbles:
McNabb: 10
Grossman: 8

QB rating:
McNabb: 77.1
Grossman: 72.4


The only place where McNabb had any real advantage was in INT percentage.

[thesubmittedone]

Awesome* job, Kdawg!

* denotes a totally fictional, unproven and unfounded adjective that I found humorous.

:pfft:

[JerseyGator]

Yep, Rex threw a lot of interceptions. I won't argue that. But Peyton threw 100 in his first 80 games. Rex hasn't even started 50. Next.

I've liked McNabb since Syracuse, so I'm not going to knock him. He was a very special talent.

[thesubmittedone]

I don't know if anyone heard Shanahan, but apparently, and it's something I wish I would have noticed, we only had one touchdown that came from a pass that wasn't caught in the end zone.

One.

That needs to change.

Like, yesterday :ols:

This goes back to what is, perhaps, the biggest issue we've had here for the longest time... and, no, it's not QB (which is a huge issue, obviously). It's the fact that we've never had a real playmaker. Just a guy who could take over games by himself. We've had that in spurts with Moss in 05 and maybe Stephen Davis as well as Clinton Portis 05/end of 07... but that's it. No Adrian Peterson's. No Calvin Johnson's. Not even a Ray Rice or a Greg Jennings.

That has to change. I think Helu/Royster can be those guys, but I'm not certain about it. Hankerson may be as well... but it's still up in the air.

I'm just glad Shanahan sees it clearly. :yes:

[KDawg]

He did? If so, not by very much...

Completion %:
McNabb: 58.3
Grossman: 57.9

Yards per attempt:
McNabb: 7.2
Grossman: 6.9

TD percentage:
McNabb: 3.0
Grossman: 3.5

Fumbles:
McNabb: 10
Grossman: 8

QB rating:
McNabb: 77.1
Grossman: 72.4


The only place where McNabb had any real advantage was in INT percentage.

Cali, I'm assuming you forgot how much I loathed the McNabb move. But better is better. And I am by no means saying McNabb was good.

Even if it's a minor advantage, McNabb was better in comp %, YPA, QB Rating, INT %, rushing yards.

And again, I'm not saying McNabb was good, I'm saying he was better, and the numbers prove that.

They both stink for us. :)

[thesubmittedone]

The McNabb comparison is exactly where the "stats lie" part of your thread title comes into play the most, KDawg. Grossman was more efficient overall and was able to convert third downs at a higher rate (I think, lol). We were also able to have long drives under Grossman, something McNabb failed miserably at. Those stats just don't show the boom/bust type of offense we had under McNabb. He led virtually no long, time-consuming, drives.

I just find it hard to believe McNabb was better. He was better for the big play once or twice a game, but that's it. 3 and outs were constant.

I think that's why Armstrong suffered as well this season. He's a one-dimensional go-route/deep post type WR and McNabb can't play the short game. Perfect for each other.

[authentic]

We're actually 7th in the league at FF, we just suck at recovering them.

well yeah, ultimate that's what i mean.

[wysknz1]

Our RBs never scored because we'd get down on the 5 yard line and throw 3 fades last one being an INT

[Califan007]

Cali, I'm assuming you forgot how much I loathed the McNabb move. But better is better. And I am by no means saying McNabb was good.

Even if it's a minor advantage, McNabb was better in comp %, YPA, QB Rating, INT %, rushing yards.
Notice how I had said "If so, not by very much" lol...a 0.4% difference in completion percentage is basically a tie. So is a 0.3 YPA differential. And rushing yards are irrelevant in terms of what's being discussed. It would be the same as saying Banks performed better at WR than Austin and Armstrong because he threw more TD passes lol...


And again, I'm not saying McNabb was good, I'm saying he was better, and the numbers prove that.
Again, the numbers only prove he was better at avoiding INTs, because the completion percentage and YPA were statistically a tie as the difference was neglible, and Rex beat McNabb in TD%.

[Tsoe]

I really miss ASF, he was good making stats do anything.

[Califan007]

The McNabb comparison is exactly where the "stats lie" part of your thread title comes into play the most, KDawg. Grossman was more efficient overall and was able to convert third downs at a higher rate (I think, lol).

Not sure how many were 3rd downs, but Rex had a 34.7% 1st down rate, and McNabb had a 32.2% 1st down rate...so you are probably right.

[KDawg]

Again, the numbers only prove he was better at avoiding INTs, because the completion percentage and YPA were statistically a tie as the difference was neglible, and Rex beat McNabb in TD%.

By .5%, which, by your definition, is negligible. :)

And rush yards are not, in any way, irrelevent. It's a part of QB play

[thesubmittedone]

Not sure how many were 3rd downs, but Rex had a 34.7% 1st down rate, and McNabb had a 32.2% 1st down rate...so you are probably right.

Interesting... I just went off what I remember, honestly. I just remember so many 3 and outs with McNabb in particular. With Rex, we'd at least move the ball a bit before turning it over or missing a FG, lol.

[Forever21]

I'm not a huge Haslett fan, but I think our sack numbers are slightly inflated because he had no faith in his secondary and therefore decided that blitzing like crazy was the only hope for this team.

(I'm going on my gut with this because I can't find any blitz percentage stats which is driving me nuts).

But at the same time. If our secondary had played a little better then Rak and Kerrigan may have gotten there a few more times as well regardless of blitzes or not. Either way I suppose the secondary is responsible.

[glongest]

Couldn't agree more..
Those six blocks knocked Gano from being a top ten kicker in FG% to 27th in the NFL.

As I've written over and over.. since Danny has been here the best we've ever finished in FG% is 19th, including 4 dead last finishes.
This year that had the chance to be completely blown away,, but somehow we just couldn't fix the problem of the entire center of the line caving in.

It's always something... but it's never Smith even though he's the common thread to ALL of our continuing special teams problems..
Strange how that works.

~Bang

And yet he is the only coach that gets endorsed by Shanny in his comments. This guy is unbelievable. He reminds me of teflon Bill Clinton. Nothing sticks to the guy.

[ExoDus84]

We didn't score 30 points this year. When was the last time a skins team didn't score at least 30 points once all season?

edit: Going back to 1993, only in 2008 and 2011 did we not score 30 pts or more at least once in a season.

[Goskinz0721]

And yet he is the only coach that gets endorsed by Shanny in his comments. This guy is unbelievable. He reminds me of teflon Bill Clinton. Nothing sticks to the guy.

Uhhh...how about Norv? The dude has a bigtime horseshoe in is rectum. Or maybe a four leaf clover. Whatever it is, I want to know what daily Lotto numbers he's betting because I want to be all over it....

[Califan007]

By .5%, which, by your definition, is negligible. :)
Not what I said...I didn't say 0.5% difference is neglible in ALL stats. In TD% that difference is substative because QBs really never go below 2.5% and never really go above about 6% in terms of TD percentage...so having a variance of half of a percent is more significant.

However, completion percentage for example can vary by as much as 30%...so that makes a difference of 0.3% negligible.

It's simple maths lol...


And rush yards are not, in any way, irrelevent. It's a part of QB play

It is when you're discussing which QB performed better, because it's ridiculously rare to have an offensive scheme at the pro level that requires the QB to be a good rusher. It can injure your starting QB having him run too much.

[wildbill1952]

Some OL Stats, while we're looking at stats:

Stuffed ranks - where a running back or QB is hit at or behind the line of scrimmage: Skins ranked 19th, which is better than the 28th they ranked last year, with 20% of all running plays failling in the "stuffed" category. Source http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol Stii bad, but improving.

The Skins ranked 3rd in sacks against us, which is always a dangerous stat to use, as a QB or covered receivers factor into that statistic. Same for QB hits. You can always blame some on the QB and some on the receivers, but a high number of QB hits plus sacks usually is a bad indication of a bad offensive line. On the other side of the coin, however, the Skins had the same number of sacks as the Green Bay Packers. The Skins had 41 sacks and 108 QB hits, making the Skins the 3rd worst in that totals column, but only 12th in counting only sacks. The two teams that were worse have acknowledged bad offensive lines - St. Louis and Seattle. Source: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&role=TM&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&archive=false&d-447263-p=1&qualified=true&d-447263-s=PASSING_QBHIT

For the "QB makes the OL better crowd", I'm afraid the stats are a little confusing in that some support and some negate that theory.
Negating: Apparently Bradford must be a bad QB, as I have been told many times on this board that a good QB makes the OL better. Knowing he is a good QB makes me wonder about the theory. Supporting: Drew Brees and the Saints have the lowest sack + QB hits totals. What's a little strange is that the Campbell/Palmer Oakland Raiders seem to be the 6th best in this stat, meaning that Campbell/Palmer made the Skins/Cleveland line worse but made the Raiders line better somehow. I'll leave it to someone else to espouse this theory. I would say the stats do not support it.

[KDawg]

The McNabb comparison is exactly where the "stats lie" part of your thread title comes into play the most, KDawg. Grossman was more efficient overall and was able to convert third downs at a higher rate (I think, lol). We were also able to have long drives under Grossman, something McNabb failed miserably at. Those stats just don't show the boom/bust type of offense we had under McNabb. He led virtually no long, time-consuming, drives.

But he wasn't more efficient.

First off, I'd argue that Rex Grossman's supporting cast was leaps and bounds better than McNabb's last season.

Second, the offense scored more points with McNabb under center than Grossman.

The 2011 Redskins scored 288 points. Kerrigan was responsible for 6. Gano was responsible for 118. That's 124 of our points, but in fairness, I'll break it up into two different segments. One including Gano's points scored, one without.

John Beck scored 26 total points this year (1 2PC, 2 TD rushes, 2 TD passes)

So 288 (total points) - 6 (Kerrigan) - 26 (Beck) = 256 points scored.

With Gano's points taken away: 288 - 6 - 26 - 124 (Gano) = 132 points scored, in 2011, with Grossman on the field.

In 2010, the team scored 302 points. Banks was responsible for 6. Hall was responsible for 6. Grossman was responsible for 44 (7 TD + 1 2PC). Gano was responsible for 100.

302 - 6 (Banks) - 6 (Hall) - 44 (Grossman) - 100 (Gano) = 146 points scoredm in 2010, with McNabb on the field

Furthermore, the 2011 Redskins allowed 367 points on the year. The 2010 Redskins allowed 377. So Rex's cast was very slightly better defensively.

Now let's look at turnover opportunities. I count a fumble as a turnover, because there's a high amount of luck within recoveries.

2011: Grossman: 20 interceptions, 8 fumbles = 28 turnover opportunities.

2010: McNabb: 15 interceptions, 10 fumbles = 25 turnover opportunities.

McNabb also attempted 14 more passes than Grossman.

It's marginal. I repeat, it's extremely marginal, but I stick by the point that McNabb actually performed better than Grossman by a hair. Which, regardless of whether it's just slightly better or not, it's better.


I think that's why Armstrong suffered as well this season. He's a one-dimensional go-route/deep post type WR and McNabb can't play the short game. Perfect for each other.

I'd say the reason he suffered has more to do with the fact that he's a one trick pony than anything else. He's not a guy that we can keep on the field on a regular basis. At best he's a #5 on most teams, if he even makes the cut. I'd say, this year, Santana Moss, Leonard Hankerson, Jabar Gaffney, David Anderson, Donte Stallworth were all better options.


And rushing yards are irrelevant in terms of what's being discussed. It would be the same as saying Banks performed better at WR than Austin and Armstrong because he threw more TD passes lol...

Rushing is a part of QB play in general. It also reflects yardage lost via sacks. McNabb was sacked more often than Grossman and still had almost 100 yards more rushing, which could (but not necessarily) prove he's more mobile. I believe it's obvious that McNabb was more mobile. And I believe it's obvious that Grossman actually, as scary as it is to say, had a better offensive line in front of him. That's just my opinion, though.


Again, the numbers only prove he was better at avoiding INTs, because the completion percentage and YPA were statistically a tie as the difference was neglible, and Rex beat McNabb in TD%.

Marginal or not, better is better. Something isn't a tie unless it's even. And again, if my argument were that McNabb was miles better, you'd have a point. But it's not. It's that McNabb outperformed Grossman. I think that stats I provided prove that.

The stat that I like most from you is that 1st down rate. Grossman was definitely better in that regard.

Also take into account the running games both guys had, to be fair to both arguments.

The 2011 rushing game from our running backs accounted for 362 carries, 1529 yards, 4.22 yards per carry, 5 TD. (That's Helu, Hightower, Royster, Young, Choice, Torain)

The 2010 rushing game from our running backs accounted for 311 carries, 1304 yards, 4.19 yards per carry, 9 TD. (That's Torain, Sellers, Portis, Young, Williams, Davis, Johnson)

McNabb's running game production was much better TD wise, otherwise they were similar with Grossman's running game having a slight edge. Due to TD production, I'd go the opposite way, though, and say McNabb probably had a better running game, although it used two more bodies.

I'm going to go look at football outsiders right now to look at advanced QB statistics from the two as well. Here's what I got (I went in blind, so whatever results are there, I'm still posting.)

2011: Rex Grossman:
DYAR: 267
YAR: 252
DVOA: -2.4%

2010: McNabb
DYAR: 354
YAR: 282
DVOA: 0.2%

Even in advanced statistics, McNabb was marginally better.

If anyone can find red zone break down efficiency/stats and post them, that would be appreciated. I'm genuinely curious what the playcalling looked like with McNabb in 2010 and Grossman in 2011 inside the red zone. It would provide some depth to this debate no matter who it favors. I can't find 'em :(

By the way, thank you for giving me some football to talk about. I definitely appreciate it. Love this game :ols:

---------- Post added January-4th-2012 at 08:31 AM ----------


Some OL Stats, while we're looking at stats:


Added to OP, great info.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Where am I blaming the OL entirely. Of course it doesn't help that your two most talented players on offense are suspended for drugs and you used 4 running backs during the year. Can anyone name a more unstable offense in terms of personnel this year in the league? A QB is not a miracle worker despite what Madden/Fantasy Football implires.


Houston

[Epochalypse]

Houston

Which makes sense because we have very similar offenses :)

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Which makes sense because we have very similar offenses :)

Injuries happen to everyone. Every message board for every team currently has a thread bitching about their injuries and acting like it only happens to them.

Hell, Pittsburgh is going to have to bench Ryan Clark this week because playing in Denver might cause him to die.

[KDawg]

Houston

I'll go through and just post IR lists. I won't mention guys who spent significant time hurt...

Buffalo:
IR:RB Fred Jackson, K Dave Rayner, K Rian Lindell, WR Donald Jones, WR Roscoe Parrish, WR Marcus Easley, WR CJ Hawthorne, WR PK Sam, T Brad Butler

Chicago:
RB Matt Forte, QB Jay Cutler, WR Johnny Knox,

Cincy:
WR Andre Caldwell, WR Jordan Shipley, WR Antonio Chatman, TE Bo Scaife, TE Ben Utecht

Houston:
QB Matt Schaub, QB Matt Leinart, WR Andre Davis (WR Andre Johnson missed significant time, RB Arian Foster missed time)

Kansas City:
RB Jamaal Charles, RB Jackie Battle, QB Matt Cassell, TE Tony Moeaki

Oakland:
RB Darren McFadden, QB Jason Campbell (neither were ever officially IR'ed but they were out the majority of the season), FB Lorenzo Neal

Seattle:
WR Mike Williams, WR Sidney Rice, T Kyle Williams, (QB Tarvaris Jackson missed time, as did T Okung)

St. Louis:
WR Mark Clayton, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, WR Greg Salas, WR Danny Amendola, WR Donnie Avery, QB AJ Feely, QB Sam Bradford

If I went through it I'd look through and find more guys who missed significant time on other teams. There are a ton of teams with instability in terms of offensive personnel. We are not the only ones. Though our injuries certainly didn't help us in the least.

---------- Post added January-4th-2012 at 09:59 AM ----------



Hell, Pittsburgh is going to have to bench Ryan Clark this week because playing in Denver might cause him to die.

Not to mention RB Rashard Mendenhall, RB Jonathan Dwyer, RB Mewelde Moore, OT Willie Colon, WR Arnaz Battle, OG Chris Kemoeatu, C Doug Legursky

[JerseyGator]

Did not realize the Bills had so many injuries which explains their similar season. The Rams and Seahawks lost 3 OL each for the year like the Skins at one point and those three teams finished in the top 3 in QB hits. Gee, what a shock!

[thesubmittedone]

KDawg, thanks for putting all those stats comparing Rex and McNabb.... definitely interesting. I was going off more of what I saw and felt than what I've studied as I've indicated, so to see the stats side by side makes for an interesting flow of thought in my mind. A little cognitive dissonance as well, lol. :)

I still think Grossman was more effective and the offense ran more smoothly under him. The problem with saying that is few stats can prove such a thing. That's more for the coaches who call the plays and run practice to know. However, there are things we could look at that would give us a better indication in terms of that. For instance, how many play calls were made to attack the intermediate area of a defense and how did Grossman do with those playcalls vs. McNabb? How much time was left on the play clock at the snap of the ball with Mcnabb under center in comparison to Rex? How much more effective was Rex in terms of passes within 5 yards of the LOS as opposed to McNabb or vice versa? How about 10 yards?

I think those questions, when answered, will prove Rex was the better QB for this offense. Just my opinion. :)

[Voice_of_Reason]

Edit: Looking into it a little more, he's in good company. Among other QBs who have thrown more career INTs than games played are Joe Namath, Dan Marino, Brett Favre. Their TD to INT ratio looks way better though.

I think and hope that is the last time I read Rex being compared to Joe, Dan or Brett in any capacity. :)

[KDawg]

KDawg, thanks for putting all those stats comparing Rex and McNabb.... definitely interesting. I was going off more of what I saw and felt than what I've studied as I've indicated, so to see the stats side by side makes for an interesting flow of thought in my mind. A little cognitive dissonance as well, lol. :)

I still think Grossman was more effective and the offense ran more smoothly under him. The problem with saying that is few stats can prove such a thing. That's more for the coaches who call the plays and run practice to know. However, there are things we could look at that would give us a better indication in terms of that. For instance, how many play calls were made to attack the intermediate area of a defense and how did Grossman do with those playcalls vs. McNabb? How much time was left on the play clock at the snap of the ball with Mcnabb under center in comparison to Rex? How much more effective was Rex in terms of passes within 5 yards of the LOS as opposed to McNabb or vice versa? How about 10 yards?

I think those questions, when answered, will prove Rex was the better QB for this offense. Just my opinion. :)

Here's the only thing I could find on football outsiders in regards to that... It's the 2010 game charting they do. So Rex's sample size is small, so the results are a bit skewed. We'll have a better idea of how they compare when they finish up 2011.

Grossman 2010:
Short passes: 58%
Mid: 25%
Deep: 14%
Bomb: 3%

McNabb 2010:
Short: 56%
Mid: 27%
Deep: 9%
Bomb: 8%

McNabb was better in "mid" and "bomb", Grossman was better in "short" and "deep". So that doesn't really prove Rex is the better QB. It again proves that the two are pretty much a dead even heat...

We'll know more, though, when Grossman's 2011 statistics are completed.