AJWatson3
February-28th-2004, 05:10 PM
Watson’s 2004 AL East Preview
Predicted Order of Finish (2004 record; +/- improvement from ’03):
1. New York Yankees (112-50; +11 games)
2. Boston Red Sox (107-55; +12)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (83-79; -3)
4. Baltimore Orioles (78-84; +7)
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (65-97; +2)
AL East MVP:
1. Curt Shilling (BOS)
2. Miguel Tejada (BAL)
3. Carlos Delgado (TOR)
4. Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
5. Keith Foulke (BOS)
AL East Cy Young:
1. Curt Shilling (BOS)
2. Roy Halladay (TOR)
3. Mike Mussina (NYY)
4. Pedro Martinez (BOS)
5. Javier Vazquez (NYY)
AL East All-Stars:
SP: Curt Shilling (BOS)
RP: Paul Quantrill (NYY)
CL: Keith Foulke (BOS)
C: Jorge Posada (NYY)
1B: Carlos Delgado (TOR)
2B: Brian Roberts (BAL)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
SS: Miguel Tejada (BAL)
LF: Manny Ramirez (BOS)
CF: Vernon Wells (TOR)
RF: Gary Sheffield (NYY)
DH: David Ortiz (BOS)
Baltimore Orioles (’03: 71-91, .438)
After another disappointing season owner Peter Angelos finally realized that winning (and at least the appearance of contending) goes hand-in-hand with attendance. The Orioles have not made the playoffs in six years, and as the team has gotten worse, the fans have seemed to lose interest. Couple this with the threat of a possible Northern Virginia or Washington area baseball franchise, and it was time to change something. The Orioles started with shaking up the front office. General Manager, Syd Thrift was replaced by Jim Beattie (Montreal) and former O’s pitcher and television announcer, Jim Flanagan. Their first move was to fire manager Mike Hargrove and replace him with Lee Mazzilli, bench coach for the New York Yankees. They also made it a priority to sign a new franchise player, now that the disastrous Albert Belle contract is off the books. Although they missed out on OF Vladamir Guerrero, they signed 2002 MVP Miguel Tejada to a long-term deal. He immediately becomes the cornerstone of the team, offering outstanding offensive skill, adequate defense, leadership, and a media-friendly personality to the Orioles. Also signing a long-term deal was catcher Javy Lopez, coming off his best season as a pro. Two players are making their return to Baltimore: 1B Rafael Palmiero, and SP Sidney Ponson. Palmiero enjoyed many productive seasons during the mid-late 90’s as an Oriole, and while his average has been down he still hits over 30 homeruns per year. Ponson was traded to the San Fransico Giants before the deadline in 2003 and returns to fill the #1 starter role. He had a career year in 2003, posting 17 wins and pitching over 200 innings.
The Orioles 2003 season ended much like the past few years, with the club playing above expectations through July, only to tank in August and September. Much of this was due to the lack of quality pitching and a young offense. However, the knocks those teams took should start to pay off now. The organization was able to find some quality talent during those years and now a core group of players has entrenched themselves in their positions.
Outfielders Larry Bigbie (LF), Luis Matos (CF), and Jay Gibbons (RF) all had the best seasons of their short careers in 2003. Bigbie finished with a .303 average, 9 homers, and 31 RBI’s in less than 300 plate appearances. The most impressive stat he posted was his .821 on-base plus slugging percentage, showing his ability to not only reach base, but to be very productive at the plate when given the opportunity. Matos took over the CF job about a third of the way through the season, and it looks like it is his for the keeping. Along with his great defensive skills he can be dangerous as a hitter. He batted over .330 for much of the season and was among the top hitters in the AL until cooling off in the final months. Matos still finished with a .303 average, 13 homeruns, and 45 RBI’s in 109 games, and had an OB+SLG of .869. Gibbons, in my opinion, is the best of the bunch. He broke out in 2003 and proved that he will be an everyday major leaguer. While he also cooled off considerably towards the end of the year, he still finished with a .270 batting average, 23 homeruns, and 100 RBI’s, and was the best player on the team. He has the potential to hit over .300 every season with 30-plus homeruns and well over 100 RBI’s with a little protection in the lineup. Each of the outfielders need to work on one major aspect of their game: strikeouts. Combined the three whiffed 268 times, and walked only 106 times, but with more at-bats and experience against opposing pitchers this number should improve.
The Oriole infield has the most new additions, with Palmiero at first, Tejada at short, Lopez at catcher, and Melvin Mora moving from the outfield to third base. Mora was on track to be the team MVP midway through the season. He was an all-star selection in 2003 and had incredible numbers until getting injured when hit by a pitch. That injury caused him to miss over two-months of baseball, and when he returned to the lineup he hit only .188 for the second half. His year then ended prematurely with a September knee injury. His season numbers were still very impressive: .317 average, 15 homers, 48 RBI’s, and a .921 OB+SLG. His move to third is going to be scrutinized as he hasn’t played the position, but he does have infield experience at both shortstop and second base, so the transition shouldn’t be too difficult.
Tejada will be counted on to carry the Orioles, and help rebuild them into a contender. While playing in Oakland he established himself as one of the best shortstops in baseball, along with Nomar Garciaparra, Derrick Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez (all in the AL East now). Tejada is an average defender, but excels offensively. Coming off and MVP year he hit .278 (well below his average), had 27 homeruns and 106 RBI’s in a weak Oakland offense. Those numbers should improve greatly playing in Camden Yards and with the protection he’ll receive in the Orioles lineup. Rafael Palmiero is back at first base for the Orioles and will be counted on to provide power to the offense and leadership in the clubhouse. In a potent Texas lineup he posted a .260 average (his lowest in many seasons), but countered that with 38 homeruns and 112 RBI’s. Also impressive was the at he walked more than he struck out (84 BB’s to 77 K’s), proving he still has a good eye at the plate.
The only position battle in the Orioles infield is at second base, where Jerry Hairston and Brian Roberts will compete for the job in spring training. Hairston has been in the organization for a number of years and was expected to be a long-term solution at second after Roberto Alomar departed, but he has yet to live up to his billing. After starting the 2003 season hot Hairston sustained and injury and was lost for the remainder. In his 58 games he hit .271 and had 14 stolen bases, third on the team behind Matos and his eventual successor, Brian Roberts. Roberts, a switch-hitter, played very well during his opportunity, providing solid defense and adequate offense at the leadoff position. He finished the year batting .270, with 41 RBI’s and 23 stolen bases in 112 games. Those numbers (along with every major statistic: H, 2B, 3B, HR, OBP, SLG, K, BB) would be almost identical to Hairston’s when projected over a 162 game season. I believe the starter will be the one who shows the best defensive skills and ability to get on base during spring camp, but my preference is Roberts.
At catcher the Orioles made a significant improvement over their 2003 starter, Brooks Fordyce. Statistically Javy Lopez hit 55 points higher, had 55 more hits, 37 more homeruns, and had 78 more RBI’s than Fordyce (who enjoyed his best season as an O). Lopez had one of the greatest offensive years of any catcher in history in 2003: .328-43-109. Hopefully he can continue to hit like that as they were by far the best numbers he has ever had (Todd Hundley….). Lopez is an adequate defensive catcher and has caught one of the best staffs in the majors while playing for Atlanta. The things he learned from their staff, which included Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Kevin Millwood, he should impart to the young group of Oriole pitchers.
At designated hitter the team has two options: swith-hitter David Segui or lefty Jack Cust. Segui, who may arguably be the most overpaid player in the major leagues cannot be relied on, because of his numerous injuries. In 2003 he played in only 67 games and posted unimpressive results. The team would be better off going with Cust, a youngster who was acquired in a trade that sent Chris Richard to Colorado. Cust has the reputation of having a selective eye at the plate, and above-average power. He could have a breakout season much like the outfielders did if he is given the opportunity. At the AAA level he hit .285 with 9 homeruns, 58 RBI’s, and a K to BB ratio of 94 to 80 in just over 300 at-bats. In Baltimore he played in only 27 games, but had 4 homers and a .521 slugging percentage in limited duty.
The pitching staff is the biggest question mark for the team in 2004. While the organization has a lot of young talent nearing the majors they will need some major contributions to reach a third-place finish in the AL East. Starting pitcher Sidney Ponson (right-handed) is the only sure thing, but who knows how he’ll follow up his best year. Ponson can be counted on to throw over 200 innings and reach double-digit wins. For a power-pitcher he doesn’t give up many homeruns, about one every 14 innings (or two starts), and he has about a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. After Ponson the staff is comprised of Eric DuBose (L), Rodrigo Lopez (R), Omar Daal (L), Kurt Ainsworth (R), and Matt Riley (L). Eric DuBose started the 2003 season in AAA Ottawa, compiling a 9-5 record and a 3.39 ERA. In Baltimore he started 10 games and had good numbers for his rookie season. While his record was only 3-6 he had a respectable 3.79 ERA, pitched one complete game, allowed only 60 hits in 73-2/3 innings, and had 44 strikeouts to 25 walks. If he can get more run support he has a chance of being a solid number two starter.
Lopez had a great 2002 season (15-9, 3.57 ERA), but his production dropped off considerably in 2003, going 7-10 with a 5.82 earned run average. Lopez got hammered giving up 188 hits and 24 homeruns in only 147 innings and had a stint on the DL. The only bright spots in his game were his 103:43 K to BB ratio, his three complete games and his one shutout (the only Oriole to have one in ’03). Similar to Lopez’s year was Omar Daal. Daal struggled to a 4-11 record in 17 starts, and had a team-worst 6.34 ERA. In 93-2/3 innings he allowed 134 hits and 11 homruns.
T
he final rotation spot will be between youngster Matt Riley (an Oriole prospect), and Kurt Ainsworth, who was acquired from San Francisco in the Ponson trade. Ainsworth piched well for the Giants last year before an arm injury forced him to end his season. He went 5-4 in 11 starts and had a 3.82 ERA. Coming out of the minors he was/is projected as a potential number one starter, so he has been scouted as having the skills to succeed in the majors. Riley saw limited action in Baltimore last year, but was dominating in the minor leagues. Between AA Bowie and AAA Ottawa, he compiled a 9-4 record, and ERA in the 3.3’s, and a 150-51 strikeout to walk ratio. His excellent command continued in his two starts for the Orioles. He averaged only 5 innings per start, but went 1-0, with a 1.80 ERA. He is considered, like Ainsworth, to contribute more in the future than the present, but he also has the tools to be a good starter.
Buddy Groom, B.J. Ryan and Rick Bauer are the primary relief pitchers. Groom has been consistently good, but had a poor 2003 season, his worst in nearly a decade. Ryan had a good first full season appearing in a team-high 76 games and winning four. Bauer also had his first full season in 2003 and pitched adequately. Even if these guys have a good season it is unknown how much it will matter, because closer Jorge Julio can be very erratic. Julio commands a dominating fastball that tops 100 miles-per-hour, and when he is on he is untouchable. However, too many times he loses focus and control and gives up big hits. Even though Julio converted 36 saves he blew too many chances for Baltimore. His record was 0-7, his ERA was 4.38, and he gave up far too many hits (60), homers (10), and walks (34) in the 61-2/3 innings he pitched. Julio does have the talent to be a very good closer and needs to rebound this year instead of turning into a replica of another former Oriole closer, Armando Benitez.
Final Prediction:
The Orioles have made too many good additions to not improve on their win total of last year. Although both the Yankees and Red Sox have made significant strides the Orioles should still be able to compete with their potent offense keeping them alive. Tejada will carry the club, and as long as the team stays healthy they should score a lot of runs in Camden Yards. Their season really depends on the performance of a young pitching staff. If a couple of prospects can adapt quickly to the majors Baltimore has a good chance of finishing in third place in 2004. I look for them to go 78-84, an improvement of 7 games over last year.
Predicted Order of Finish (2004 record; +/- improvement from ’03):
1. New York Yankees (112-50; +11 games)
2. Boston Red Sox (107-55; +12)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (83-79; -3)
4. Baltimore Orioles (78-84; +7)
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (65-97; +2)
AL East MVP:
1. Curt Shilling (BOS)
2. Miguel Tejada (BAL)
3. Carlos Delgado (TOR)
4. Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
5. Keith Foulke (BOS)
AL East Cy Young:
1. Curt Shilling (BOS)
2. Roy Halladay (TOR)
3. Mike Mussina (NYY)
4. Pedro Martinez (BOS)
5. Javier Vazquez (NYY)
AL East All-Stars:
SP: Curt Shilling (BOS)
RP: Paul Quantrill (NYY)
CL: Keith Foulke (BOS)
C: Jorge Posada (NYY)
1B: Carlos Delgado (TOR)
2B: Brian Roberts (BAL)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
SS: Miguel Tejada (BAL)
LF: Manny Ramirez (BOS)
CF: Vernon Wells (TOR)
RF: Gary Sheffield (NYY)
DH: David Ortiz (BOS)
Baltimore Orioles (’03: 71-91, .438)
After another disappointing season owner Peter Angelos finally realized that winning (and at least the appearance of contending) goes hand-in-hand with attendance. The Orioles have not made the playoffs in six years, and as the team has gotten worse, the fans have seemed to lose interest. Couple this with the threat of a possible Northern Virginia or Washington area baseball franchise, and it was time to change something. The Orioles started with shaking up the front office. General Manager, Syd Thrift was replaced by Jim Beattie (Montreal) and former O’s pitcher and television announcer, Jim Flanagan. Their first move was to fire manager Mike Hargrove and replace him with Lee Mazzilli, bench coach for the New York Yankees. They also made it a priority to sign a new franchise player, now that the disastrous Albert Belle contract is off the books. Although they missed out on OF Vladamir Guerrero, they signed 2002 MVP Miguel Tejada to a long-term deal. He immediately becomes the cornerstone of the team, offering outstanding offensive skill, adequate defense, leadership, and a media-friendly personality to the Orioles. Also signing a long-term deal was catcher Javy Lopez, coming off his best season as a pro. Two players are making their return to Baltimore: 1B Rafael Palmiero, and SP Sidney Ponson. Palmiero enjoyed many productive seasons during the mid-late 90’s as an Oriole, and while his average has been down he still hits over 30 homeruns per year. Ponson was traded to the San Fransico Giants before the deadline in 2003 and returns to fill the #1 starter role. He had a career year in 2003, posting 17 wins and pitching over 200 innings.
The Orioles 2003 season ended much like the past few years, with the club playing above expectations through July, only to tank in August and September. Much of this was due to the lack of quality pitching and a young offense. However, the knocks those teams took should start to pay off now. The organization was able to find some quality talent during those years and now a core group of players has entrenched themselves in their positions.
Outfielders Larry Bigbie (LF), Luis Matos (CF), and Jay Gibbons (RF) all had the best seasons of their short careers in 2003. Bigbie finished with a .303 average, 9 homers, and 31 RBI’s in less than 300 plate appearances. The most impressive stat he posted was his .821 on-base plus slugging percentage, showing his ability to not only reach base, but to be very productive at the plate when given the opportunity. Matos took over the CF job about a third of the way through the season, and it looks like it is his for the keeping. Along with his great defensive skills he can be dangerous as a hitter. He batted over .330 for much of the season and was among the top hitters in the AL until cooling off in the final months. Matos still finished with a .303 average, 13 homeruns, and 45 RBI’s in 109 games, and had an OB+SLG of .869. Gibbons, in my opinion, is the best of the bunch. He broke out in 2003 and proved that he will be an everyday major leaguer. While he also cooled off considerably towards the end of the year, he still finished with a .270 batting average, 23 homeruns, and 100 RBI’s, and was the best player on the team. He has the potential to hit over .300 every season with 30-plus homeruns and well over 100 RBI’s with a little protection in the lineup. Each of the outfielders need to work on one major aspect of their game: strikeouts. Combined the three whiffed 268 times, and walked only 106 times, but with more at-bats and experience against opposing pitchers this number should improve.
The Oriole infield has the most new additions, with Palmiero at first, Tejada at short, Lopez at catcher, and Melvin Mora moving from the outfield to third base. Mora was on track to be the team MVP midway through the season. He was an all-star selection in 2003 and had incredible numbers until getting injured when hit by a pitch. That injury caused him to miss over two-months of baseball, and when he returned to the lineup he hit only .188 for the second half. His year then ended prematurely with a September knee injury. His season numbers were still very impressive: .317 average, 15 homers, 48 RBI’s, and a .921 OB+SLG. His move to third is going to be scrutinized as he hasn’t played the position, but he does have infield experience at both shortstop and second base, so the transition shouldn’t be too difficult.
Tejada will be counted on to carry the Orioles, and help rebuild them into a contender. While playing in Oakland he established himself as one of the best shortstops in baseball, along with Nomar Garciaparra, Derrick Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez (all in the AL East now). Tejada is an average defender, but excels offensively. Coming off and MVP year he hit .278 (well below his average), had 27 homeruns and 106 RBI’s in a weak Oakland offense. Those numbers should improve greatly playing in Camden Yards and with the protection he’ll receive in the Orioles lineup. Rafael Palmiero is back at first base for the Orioles and will be counted on to provide power to the offense and leadership in the clubhouse. In a potent Texas lineup he posted a .260 average (his lowest in many seasons), but countered that with 38 homeruns and 112 RBI’s. Also impressive was the at he walked more than he struck out (84 BB’s to 77 K’s), proving he still has a good eye at the plate.
The only position battle in the Orioles infield is at second base, where Jerry Hairston and Brian Roberts will compete for the job in spring training. Hairston has been in the organization for a number of years and was expected to be a long-term solution at second after Roberto Alomar departed, but he has yet to live up to his billing. After starting the 2003 season hot Hairston sustained and injury and was lost for the remainder. In his 58 games he hit .271 and had 14 stolen bases, third on the team behind Matos and his eventual successor, Brian Roberts. Roberts, a switch-hitter, played very well during his opportunity, providing solid defense and adequate offense at the leadoff position. He finished the year batting .270, with 41 RBI’s and 23 stolen bases in 112 games. Those numbers (along with every major statistic: H, 2B, 3B, HR, OBP, SLG, K, BB) would be almost identical to Hairston’s when projected over a 162 game season. I believe the starter will be the one who shows the best defensive skills and ability to get on base during spring camp, but my preference is Roberts.
At catcher the Orioles made a significant improvement over their 2003 starter, Brooks Fordyce. Statistically Javy Lopez hit 55 points higher, had 55 more hits, 37 more homeruns, and had 78 more RBI’s than Fordyce (who enjoyed his best season as an O). Lopez had one of the greatest offensive years of any catcher in history in 2003: .328-43-109. Hopefully he can continue to hit like that as they were by far the best numbers he has ever had (Todd Hundley….). Lopez is an adequate defensive catcher and has caught one of the best staffs in the majors while playing for Atlanta. The things he learned from their staff, which included Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Kevin Millwood, he should impart to the young group of Oriole pitchers.
At designated hitter the team has two options: swith-hitter David Segui or lefty Jack Cust. Segui, who may arguably be the most overpaid player in the major leagues cannot be relied on, because of his numerous injuries. In 2003 he played in only 67 games and posted unimpressive results. The team would be better off going with Cust, a youngster who was acquired in a trade that sent Chris Richard to Colorado. Cust has the reputation of having a selective eye at the plate, and above-average power. He could have a breakout season much like the outfielders did if he is given the opportunity. At the AAA level he hit .285 with 9 homeruns, 58 RBI’s, and a K to BB ratio of 94 to 80 in just over 300 at-bats. In Baltimore he played in only 27 games, but had 4 homers and a .521 slugging percentage in limited duty.
The pitching staff is the biggest question mark for the team in 2004. While the organization has a lot of young talent nearing the majors they will need some major contributions to reach a third-place finish in the AL East. Starting pitcher Sidney Ponson (right-handed) is the only sure thing, but who knows how he’ll follow up his best year. Ponson can be counted on to throw over 200 innings and reach double-digit wins. For a power-pitcher he doesn’t give up many homeruns, about one every 14 innings (or two starts), and he has about a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. After Ponson the staff is comprised of Eric DuBose (L), Rodrigo Lopez (R), Omar Daal (L), Kurt Ainsworth (R), and Matt Riley (L). Eric DuBose started the 2003 season in AAA Ottawa, compiling a 9-5 record and a 3.39 ERA. In Baltimore he started 10 games and had good numbers for his rookie season. While his record was only 3-6 he had a respectable 3.79 ERA, pitched one complete game, allowed only 60 hits in 73-2/3 innings, and had 44 strikeouts to 25 walks. If he can get more run support he has a chance of being a solid number two starter.
Lopez had a great 2002 season (15-9, 3.57 ERA), but his production dropped off considerably in 2003, going 7-10 with a 5.82 earned run average. Lopez got hammered giving up 188 hits and 24 homeruns in only 147 innings and had a stint on the DL. The only bright spots in his game were his 103:43 K to BB ratio, his three complete games and his one shutout (the only Oriole to have one in ’03). Similar to Lopez’s year was Omar Daal. Daal struggled to a 4-11 record in 17 starts, and had a team-worst 6.34 ERA. In 93-2/3 innings he allowed 134 hits and 11 homruns.
T
he final rotation spot will be between youngster Matt Riley (an Oriole prospect), and Kurt Ainsworth, who was acquired from San Francisco in the Ponson trade. Ainsworth piched well for the Giants last year before an arm injury forced him to end his season. He went 5-4 in 11 starts and had a 3.82 ERA. Coming out of the minors he was/is projected as a potential number one starter, so he has been scouted as having the skills to succeed in the majors. Riley saw limited action in Baltimore last year, but was dominating in the minor leagues. Between AA Bowie and AAA Ottawa, he compiled a 9-4 record, and ERA in the 3.3’s, and a 150-51 strikeout to walk ratio. His excellent command continued in his two starts for the Orioles. He averaged only 5 innings per start, but went 1-0, with a 1.80 ERA. He is considered, like Ainsworth, to contribute more in the future than the present, but he also has the tools to be a good starter.
Buddy Groom, B.J. Ryan and Rick Bauer are the primary relief pitchers. Groom has been consistently good, but had a poor 2003 season, his worst in nearly a decade. Ryan had a good first full season appearing in a team-high 76 games and winning four. Bauer also had his first full season in 2003 and pitched adequately. Even if these guys have a good season it is unknown how much it will matter, because closer Jorge Julio can be very erratic. Julio commands a dominating fastball that tops 100 miles-per-hour, and when he is on he is untouchable. However, too many times he loses focus and control and gives up big hits. Even though Julio converted 36 saves he blew too many chances for Baltimore. His record was 0-7, his ERA was 4.38, and he gave up far too many hits (60), homers (10), and walks (34) in the 61-2/3 innings he pitched. Julio does have the talent to be a very good closer and needs to rebound this year instead of turning into a replica of another former Oriole closer, Armando Benitez.
Final Prediction:
The Orioles have made too many good additions to not improve on their win total of last year. Although both the Yankees and Red Sox have made significant strides the Orioles should still be able to compete with their potent offense keeping them alive. Tejada will carry the club, and as long as the team stays healthy they should score a lot of runs in Camden Yards. Their season really depends on the performance of a young pitching staff. If a couple of prospects can adapt quickly to the majors Baltimore has a good chance of finishing in third place in 2004. I look for them to go 78-84, an improvement of 7 games over last year.