First Wave of Votes favor Kerry

[afparent]

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

http://www.drudgereport.com/

[Hooper]

Dailykos.com has Kerry up in Philly (by a large margin), Ohio, and Florida in the first exit polls.

[Cskin]

"Competitive" and "in striking distance" DO NOT mean he's leading. How on earth can you come up with that?

[SnyderShrugged]

Exit polls are 100% crap. Don't buy any of it.

The exit polls will shift dramatically minute to minute.

[Hooper]

Go to Dailykos.com. They have the breakdown. Of course, it's probably BS.

[Skins24]

What skin-n-vegas said....



Originally posted by Hooper
Go to Dailykos.com.
Just to note: you have to type in the "www." for it to work...

[iheartskins]

As I said during the entire Red Sox campaign by quoting Yogi Berra, "it ain't over 'til it's over."

No reason to attack each other or the news sources yet.

[Hooper]

I just thought it was an interesting link -- not saying I believe it or support it.

Deep breaths, everbody. We're all Americans and Skins fan, no matter who wins the election.

[Hooper]

Has Kerry up 20 points in PA so I wouldn't say it's the best source.

[afparent]

What if Kerry wins every swing state...it could be a blowout!!!

[Kilmer17]

I think they are accurate.

Tell all the Kerry supporters that havent voted that they dont need to now.

[SnyderShrugged]

Originally posted by iheartskins
As I said during the entire Red Sox campaign by quoting Yogi Berra, "it ain't over 'til it's over."

No reason to attack each other or the news sources yet.


I don't think any are attacking each other here. I did, however, attack :exit polls" in general. They tend to be totally wrong and only serve to de-energize the voters from one side when they feel A. my vote won't matter, since my guy is losing or B. "My vote isnt needed because my guy is winning.

[Monte51Coleman]

Originally posted by Kilmer17
I think they are accurate.

Tell all the Kerry supporters that havent voted that they dont need to now.

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

[iheartskins]

Originally posted by skin-n-vegas



I don't think any are attacking each other here. I did, however, attack :exit polls" in general. They tend to be totally wrong and only serve to de-energize the voters from one side when they feel A. my vote won't matter, since my guy is losing or B. "My vote isnt needed because my guy is winning.

I think your points about exit polls are right on. Maybe I was wrong, but I thought some of the initial threads were getting to be a touch incidiary.

[Predicto]

Exit polls are pretty much crapola when the race is this close.

[DSF]

I'd laugh at, not to mention whole-heartidly enjoy, a Kerry blow-out.

First thing the Skins have done right all year was to ensure his victory :)

[wickedwitch]

And we all know how accurate exit polls were in Florida in 2000.

But I hope it's true.

[lckelsey4]

So much for waiting for all of the results before reporting anything. Not like that was going to happen anyway, though.

[aREDSKIN]

Originally posted by DSF
I'd laugh at, not to mention whole-heartidly enjoy, a Kerry blow-out.

First thing the Skins have done right all year was to ensure his victory :)

You'd better wake up from your dream because your nightmare is fast approaching. :)

Exit polling, especially early, is pure crappola when trying to predict these huge elections.

[Kilmer17]

Exit polls in previous elections were meaningless. ESPECIALLY when taken a various points in a day.

For what it's worth. The sample used for these results had a 59-41 woman to man ratio.

If that's all Kerry has from that big of a woman percentage, then it's KERRY not BUSH who is in trouble early.

But as I said. Exits are worthless. ESPECIALLY this year. I walked right past the poller without even responding.

[SkinsHokieFan]

I didn't even notice an exit poller at my place

[Kilmer17]

Anone know when the next batch comes out?

[Hooper]

No idea.

Not getting a lot of work done today, that's for sure.

[Thiebear]

The democrat table was there at 5:50am.. the repubs didnt show up till 6:15...

Cant wait till 8pm est... I wanna see which news station steps in "IT"...

[pez]

Originally posted by Kilmer17
Exit polls in previous elections were meaningless. ESPECIALLY when taken a various points in a day.

For what it's worth. The sample used for these results had a 59-41 woman to man ratio.

If that's all Kerry has from that big of a woman percentage, then it's KERRY not BUSH who is in trouble early.

But as I said. Exits are worthless. ESPECIALLY this year. I walked right past the poller without even responding.

Not every woman will be voting kerry, and not every man will be voting bush....

[Walking Deadman]

No exit polling at my area.
All of the polls are pretty BS anyway- let's wait until the polls close this time.

That means you CBS!

[gstahl]

Originally posted by Kilmer17
I think they are accurate.

Tell all the Kerry supporters that havent voted that they dont need to now.

Yea, that is the danger of these polls, who thinks the election is won or lost already and who fails to vote???

One, could argue if someone is stupid enough to believe an noon exit poll, then maybe they just shouldn't vote. =)

[Kilmer17]

Historically, woman vote for Dems by 15-20 points, and men for Repubs by 10-15.

The point is that you shouldnt take any exit poll seriously. And if they have this much of chasm between who they sample, they will be even less reliable.

Now, if they had polled 59% men vs 41 woman and these were the results, it would be over.

[Hooper]

Drudge has withdrew that 59-41 ratio comment.

Not that it matters. We won't know $hit for a couple hours.

[pez]

Originally posted by Kilmer17
Historically, woman vote for Dems by 15-20 points, and men for Repubs by 10-15.

The point is that you shouldnt take any exit poll seriously. And if they have this much of chasm between who they sample, they will be even less reliable.

Now, if they had polled 59% men vs 41 woman and these were the results, it would be over.

I am not believing anyone (even cnn) until the REAL count is in...

[Kilmer17]

Only because he replaced it with Senate polls and comparrions to 2000

[Thiebear]

Guam.. that's all i have to say... Guam
I mean we just won a whole country's worth right? ;)

[KevinthePRF]

Please everyone remember, polls are meaningless to the final outcome, unless your guy is ahead, then they mean everything in the world!

By the way, can I get an over under on how many Red Sox references were going to get between now and the time it is over? Sheesh.

[Hooper]

From Cnn --

Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.


Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.

Michigan - Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than

[Thiebear]

Who is the Gore guy you keep mentioning?
Radio and Television in Ohio to put out that if you didnt receive an absentee ballot to go do a provisional vote: Can you say: Not counted unless really close... That sucks...

[Skins24]

Originally posted by Thiebear
Who is the Gore guy you keep mentioning?

I believe they're talking about Al Gore.

You know...he's the guy who's the Tim Hasselback of politics. Serviceable backup (I guess), but you wouldn't want him leading.