bubba9497
March-7th-2005, 11:23 AM
NFL with Gary Horton of Scouts, Inc.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/index
Gary Horton: The Indy combine is over and we've seen the first big wave of free agency. There are some very intersting signings to speak of, but now, expect things to slow down considerably as coaching staffs really zero in on the draft and become a little more cautious with spending on second tier free agents. Now, organizations' challenge is to anticipate filling remaining needs through the draft OR through f.a. which means we probably won't see a lot of big money signings in the next couple of weeks as teams plan for draft day.
Gary Horton: Just out of curiosity, away from football ... was their ever a more exciting sports weekend than this one -- Illinois and Ohio State, Duke and Carolina, an absolutely great showdown between Tiger and Phil, and even the opening of spring training! This was a pretty acceptable sports slate, even without football!
Jonathan Buffalo: Gary, what do you think of the Bills signing Kelly Holcomb, i feel it was a great move?
Gary Horton: Well, I think it's probably a work in progress and if you were giving it a grade, it'd be an incomplete. I honestly don't know what Kelly Holcomb is today. There have been times at Cleveland where I really liked him and thought he was the answer at QB, and there were other times that I thought he looked very average. He has good leadership skills and the coaching staff liked him and maybe he'll function nicely as a No. 2 guy behind Losman b/c he should be a good lockerroom guy, but I would have thought that the Bills would have gone for a little more well-established, older backup that would have been more of a mentor to Losman. I'm just not sure that a guy like Losman is capable of being a mentor or has the starting QB role out of his system. ... SO -- I think it's a real role of the dice for the Bills and I would be very nervous going into a season with an untested young Losman and an up-and-down Holcomb running my team.
Brian (Washington, DC): I am a huge Browns fan. I am really disappointed in the Dilfer signing. I'm tired of hearing "he's a winner". Yes when he has a great running back and defense he is, but the Browns don't have either of those. Why do you think they signed him?
Gary Horton: Brian, I think that Cleveland has basically decided that this will be a slow building operation and they will do it through the draft. Therefore, I think they're prepared to take their lumps for a year or two and, to them, it doesn't make sense to invest a lot of money at the QB position. I agree with you totally that when Dilfer has great weapons around him, he is a tough guy and a caretaker, but there is no way he can carry this team on his back especially with their lack of overall weapons. It could be that the Browns are looking at drafting a QB now in the first round and Dilfer buys them a year or two. OR, they may just think that they've got too many other more important things to fix right now, and they will address the QB needs a few years from now. They certainly don't look like a team ready to compete at that position in 2005.
Erich (Reston, VA): Seahawk fan here. If Dilfer is going to be the Brown's starter how come Seattle only got a 4th round pick for him. Even worse is that it is the Broncos pick instead of the better Browns pick in round 4. What gives?
Gary Horton: Trent Dilfer is not a hot name on the open market. He was in a perfect situation in Seattle at least in terms of what most teams thought about him -- and that is a solid backup guy with decent skills and great character. He can step in and finish a game. BUT, at this stage, he is not perceived by most to be a long-term starting QB and he is perceived as a marginal No. 1, but a GREAT NO. 2 and that's not going to bring you a high draft pick. BUT, from Dilfer's standpoint, the chance to go start in Cleveland is a huge confidence shot in the arm and one that he probably never expected.
Rich (Chapel Hill, NC): What do you think of the Panthers offseasons moves thus far in free agency, and how do you think the signings of Wahle and Lucas will influence what position they address in the first round?
Gary Horton: I think both signings are solid, they both fill a need and when you study Carolina's scouting dept, they are one of the most underrated groups in the league. They are not real flashy but they are very thorough and always seem to quietly fill their needs. It's too early to tell which direction they will go in the draft, but I'm sure they'll take the best athlete available to fit their needs, they won't take a less talented player, just to fill a need.
BILLY (ATLANTA): am i the only one who saw what vick could do with "good" receivers in the probowl? why are the falcons not making a move at all on any wr's? are tehy content with pierless "over"-price?
Gary Horton: I agree with you whole heartedly, Billy. They desparately need another big-play weapon for Michael Vick. I also agree that Peerless Price is a much better No. 2 than a No. 1 receiver. He is not going to be the ultimate go-to guy in this offense. I think you have to be a little careful on overrating Vick's performance at the Pro Bowl b/c he is not facing much of a passrush -- that was a lot of loose coverages and it was more like a pick-up game than a real NFL competition. HOWEVER, I am very surprised that Atlanta hasn't made a big move for a Derrick Mason or Plax or even get involved in the Randy Moss sweepstakes. To me, a big time receiver fastforwards this offense into one of the most dangerous in the NFL and Atlanta is an easy place to recruit skill players to, b/c everybody wants to play with Mike Vick. The Falcons must be comfortbable that they will get a guy in the draft, but I think they need an impact veteran right now b/c this offense is ready to roll. If you would have asked me at the end of football season to name the top 5 needs by any team in the NFL, a Falcons WR would certainly be on that list.
Tim (Phx): Why, please tell me why Kurt Warner. do you think, if he can manage to stay healthy, that he will get sacked more times this season than any qb in history?
Gary Horton: Obviously, going to Ariz as a starter is great for Warner, but I'm not sure it's the answer for your Cardinals, Tim. They had a strong plan a year ago when they passed on the top QBs in the draft and they could have had Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberer b/c they were convinced that Josh McCown was their QB of the future. Now they don't have enough faith in McCown, but I don't know what this move does for Arizona unless they pick another QB in this draft. Kurt is a short-term fix, at best, and his playing on a team that probably won't be a playoff contender will certainly hinder the maturation of Josh if he does have a future and my theory is we'll be looking at the QB situation in Arizona a year from now in the same light we're looking at it now. Warner only fits on a veteran team that is a playoff contender that needs a 1-year QB while they get somebody else ready. I'm not sure any or all of those things apply in Arizona... but obviously, the Cards think they are closer to being a competative team than we do! My guess is, Denny Green looks at four or five games a year ago that they lost b/c of inefficiency at the QB position and in his mind, with three quality receivers and a veteran QB, those losses become wins ... and in a medicore NFC, they are all of a sudden a playoff team. Denny wants to build quick, and Warner is the ultimate quick-fix gamble. Is he close enough to be a difference-maker? ....
nat da g-man( wythe va): Gary, Plexico Burress is visiting the giants today, what are the chances of new york signing Burress?
Gary Horton: You know, it's hard to know b/c the Giants are conservative by nature and character is very important to them. BUT, they desparately need a big play WR for Eli Manning. What makes this situation intriguing is the fact that Burress can look at this situation and say, 'it's NYC, the biggest stage in the world with a young QB that will get me the ball.'' BUT, the players won't sell this one too hard b/c of their head coach. It will be very interesting to see if the G-men bite the bullet and pick up Burress. People in the league tell me there is a little more concern than you may think about how Burress will compete after a big pay day. He was in the perfect situation in Pittsburgh and he turned his back to that. I'm surprised that there was't a rush to sign him in the first three or four days -- which leads me to believe that he's one of those guys that won't get the big contract until he visits a team and an organization has done enough research to feel comfortable with him. He may want to continue to look at a couple of other teams before he makes a decision, so I have my doubts about this deal getting done so quickly.
adam (blacksburg, va): Gary, I've heard a lot of talk about the Dolphins making a move to get the Edge, and I've heard they're shopping Patrick Surtain-- any weight to either of these moves taking place?
Gary Horton: I don' tthink the Phins will get Edge, I think he'll stay in Indy and I think they are committed to keeping this offense together for at least one more year. I feel pretty confident that SAban will build this team through the draft. He'll have his choice at either one of the top QBs or RBs -- both big needs for the PHins. There is an underlying feeling in the NFL that as good as James is, he does not have a lot of big years left and his production could start dropping a little quicker than we might think. I know a lot of folks will disagree with that, but there is a little bit of a feeling that he has a Marshall Faulk-type syndrome that when he starts to fade, he may fade fast. Saban has enough time at Miami to build and develop young players.
E Diddy (Sacramento): With Raiders signing of Lamont Jordan, do you think he will be able to fit into Turner's offense, fill the role of an every down back, and help establish the running game which is much needed?
Gary Horton: I think the Lamont Jordan signing is one of the best so far in free agency. He is definitely a starting back and this RAiders offense now becomes scarey. With Moss and Porter and the other Raider receivers giving them a vertical passing game, it is almost impossible to load up vs. the run! You will see defenses forced to play a lot of man-to-man and nickel schemes which makes them soft vs. the run. Not only will the Raiders benefit from Lamont's running skills to help set up the passing game and play action, but Jordan will also benefit from the inability of defenses to zero in on him. He could be headed for a huge year behind a big, physical O-line. The happiest guy in the NFL today may be Kerry Collins who has been hand-delivered the perfect offense to suit his skills.
mike (Oxford, WI) : packer fan here they seem to be getting rid of the O line and plan to use unproven players. and has not done any thing to help their defence. i know its early but thing seem to be unraveling fast is there any hope for next year
Gary Horton: I'm more concerned about their O-line losses than I am about their defensive upgrade needs -- which is also very important. My fear is that with the loss of Wahle and Rivera, you could adversely affect Brett Favre's decision to return. If Brett continues to play, I thought you'd have to keep this outstanding OL group together. That has been a challenge the last few years, but they've been able to do it and Favre had a great relationship with them. Now, there is a new group and I think it may be time for Brett to leave b/c these guys are leaving. Even if he stays, it won't be the same top unit as it was a year ago. It will be OK, Mike Flannagan will be a great anchor at OC, but I really fear that the Pack is going in the wrong direction.
Sam (Boston): Are the Patriots in trouble with all their losses or will Bill Belichick make things work as usual? Thanks
Gary Horton: Most teams would probably be in trouble losing some key contributors and both coordinators ... but I think the Pats, as usual, will come out of this situation on top. They have coaches in place that know this offense and defense and keep in mind that as great as Charlie Weiss and Romeo were, this has and always will be Bill Belichick's team. He is heavily involved on both sides of the ball and he always knows what he wants to do. The great thing about New ENgland is that they avoid the 'star-system syndrome' making it a lot easier to replace players. You're not looking for the perfect replacement, you're just looking for a role player who can fill a need. B/c of that, the Pats aren't frozen by four or five players that make the diffence. They will fill in with some mid-level free agents, but they will likely have another outstanding draft where they wheel and deal and bring in another 6 or 7 rookies that will make the team and quietly have more turnover than you might expect from a Super Bowl champion team. They will get better and younger -- that's the beauty of how Bill Belichick organizations operate and why they will never just fall apart.
Gary Horton: Today was a lot of fun, some really though provoking questions. Maybe Plax will sign by the time we talk again on Wed., but I think we're starting to see now what the philosophical approach is of most organizations and how they are going to approach this offseason. It makes for a lot of interesting discussion. The great thing about chatting in March is that everybody's right and nobody is wrong. There are 32 teams out there that think they are going to the playoffs! This is great!
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/index
Gary Horton: The Indy combine is over and we've seen the first big wave of free agency. There are some very intersting signings to speak of, but now, expect things to slow down considerably as coaching staffs really zero in on the draft and become a little more cautious with spending on second tier free agents. Now, organizations' challenge is to anticipate filling remaining needs through the draft OR through f.a. which means we probably won't see a lot of big money signings in the next couple of weeks as teams plan for draft day.
Gary Horton: Just out of curiosity, away from football ... was their ever a more exciting sports weekend than this one -- Illinois and Ohio State, Duke and Carolina, an absolutely great showdown between Tiger and Phil, and even the opening of spring training! This was a pretty acceptable sports slate, even without football!
Jonathan Buffalo: Gary, what do you think of the Bills signing Kelly Holcomb, i feel it was a great move?
Gary Horton: Well, I think it's probably a work in progress and if you were giving it a grade, it'd be an incomplete. I honestly don't know what Kelly Holcomb is today. There have been times at Cleveland where I really liked him and thought he was the answer at QB, and there were other times that I thought he looked very average. He has good leadership skills and the coaching staff liked him and maybe he'll function nicely as a No. 2 guy behind Losman b/c he should be a good lockerroom guy, but I would have thought that the Bills would have gone for a little more well-established, older backup that would have been more of a mentor to Losman. I'm just not sure that a guy like Losman is capable of being a mentor or has the starting QB role out of his system. ... SO -- I think it's a real role of the dice for the Bills and I would be very nervous going into a season with an untested young Losman and an up-and-down Holcomb running my team.
Brian (Washington, DC): I am a huge Browns fan. I am really disappointed in the Dilfer signing. I'm tired of hearing "he's a winner". Yes when he has a great running back and defense he is, but the Browns don't have either of those. Why do you think they signed him?
Gary Horton: Brian, I think that Cleveland has basically decided that this will be a slow building operation and they will do it through the draft. Therefore, I think they're prepared to take their lumps for a year or two and, to them, it doesn't make sense to invest a lot of money at the QB position. I agree with you totally that when Dilfer has great weapons around him, he is a tough guy and a caretaker, but there is no way he can carry this team on his back especially with their lack of overall weapons. It could be that the Browns are looking at drafting a QB now in the first round and Dilfer buys them a year or two. OR, they may just think that they've got too many other more important things to fix right now, and they will address the QB needs a few years from now. They certainly don't look like a team ready to compete at that position in 2005.
Erich (Reston, VA): Seahawk fan here. If Dilfer is going to be the Brown's starter how come Seattle only got a 4th round pick for him. Even worse is that it is the Broncos pick instead of the better Browns pick in round 4. What gives?
Gary Horton: Trent Dilfer is not a hot name on the open market. He was in a perfect situation in Seattle at least in terms of what most teams thought about him -- and that is a solid backup guy with decent skills and great character. He can step in and finish a game. BUT, at this stage, he is not perceived by most to be a long-term starting QB and he is perceived as a marginal No. 1, but a GREAT NO. 2 and that's not going to bring you a high draft pick. BUT, from Dilfer's standpoint, the chance to go start in Cleveland is a huge confidence shot in the arm and one that he probably never expected.
Rich (Chapel Hill, NC): What do you think of the Panthers offseasons moves thus far in free agency, and how do you think the signings of Wahle and Lucas will influence what position they address in the first round?
Gary Horton: I think both signings are solid, they both fill a need and when you study Carolina's scouting dept, they are one of the most underrated groups in the league. They are not real flashy but they are very thorough and always seem to quietly fill their needs. It's too early to tell which direction they will go in the draft, but I'm sure they'll take the best athlete available to fit their needs, they won't take a less talented player, just to fill a need.
BILLY (ATLANTA): am i the only one who saw what vick could do with "good" receivers in the probowl? why are the falcons not making a move at all on any wr's? are tehy content with pierless "over"-price?
Gary Horton: I agree with you whole heartedly, Billy. They desparately need another big-play weapon for Michael Vick. I also agree that Peerless Price is a much better No. 2 than a No. 1 receiver. He is not going to be the ultimate go-to guy in this offense. I think you have to be a little careful on overrating Vick's performance at the Pro Bowl b/c he is not facing much of a passrush -- that was a lot of loose coverages and it was more like a pick-up game than a real NFL competition. HOWEVER, I am very surprised that Atlanta hasn't made a big move for a Derrick Mason or Plax or even get involved in the Randy Moss sweepstakes. To me, a big time receiver fastforwards this offense into one of the most dangerous in the NFL and Atlanta is an easy place to recruit skill players to, b/c everybody wants to play with Mike Vick. The Falcons must be comfortbable that they will get a guy in the draft, but I think they need an impact veteran right now b/c this offense is ready to roll. If you would have asked me at the end of football season to name the top 5 needs by any team in the NFL, a Falcons WR would certainly be on that list.
Tim (Phx): Why, please tell me why Kurt Warner. do you think, if he can manage to stay healthy, that he will get sacked more times this season than any qb in history?
Gary Horton: Obviously, going to Ariz as a starter is great for Warner, but I'm not sure it's the answer for your Cardinals, Tim. They had a strong plan a year ago when they passed on the top QBs in the draft and they could have had Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberer b/c they were convinced that Josh McCown was their QB of the future. Now they don't have enough faith in McCown, but I don't know what this move does for Arizona unless they pick another QB in this draft. Kurt is a short-term fix, at best, and his playing on a team that probably won't be a playoff contender will certainly hinder the maturation of Josh if he does have a future and my theory is we'll be looking at the QB situation in Arizona a year from now in the same light we're looking at it now. Warner only fits on a veteran team that is a playoff contender that needs a 1-year QB while they get somebody else ready. I'm not sure any or all of those things apply in Arizona... but obviously, the Cards think they are closer to being a competative team than we do! My guess is, Denny Green looks at four or five games a year ago that they lost b/c of inefficiency at the QB position and in his mind, with three quality receivers and a veteran QB, those losses become wins ... and in a medicore NFC, they are all of a sudden a playoff team. Denny wants to build quick, and Warner is the ultimate quick-fix gamble. Is he close enough to be a difference-maker? ....
nat da g-man( wythe va): Gary, Plexico Burress is visiting the giants today, what are the chances of new york signing Burress?
Gary Horton: You know, it's hard to know b/c the Giants are conservative by nature and character is very important to them. BUT, they desparately need a big play WR for Eli Manning. What makes this situation intriguing is the fact that Burress can look at this situation and say, 'it's NYC, the biggest stage in the world with a young QB that will get me the ball.'' BUT, the players won't sell this one too hard b/c of their head coach. It will be very interesting to see if the G-men bite the bullet and pick up Burress. People in the league tell me there is a little more concern than you may think about how Burress will compete after a big pay day. He was in the perfect situation in Pittsburgh and he turned his back to that. I'm surprised that there was't a rush to sign him in the first three or four days -- which leads me to believe that he's one of those guys that won't get the big contract until he visits a team and an organization has done enough research to feel comfortable with him. He may want to continue to look at a couple of other teams before he makes a decision, so I have my doubts about this deal getting done so quickly.
adam (blacksburg, va): Gary, I've heard a lot of talk about the Dolphins making a move to get the Edge, and I've heard they're shopping Patrick Surtain-- any weight to either of these moves taking place?
Gary Horton: I don' tthink the Phins will get Edge, I think he'll stay in Indy and I think they are committed to keeping this offense together for at least one more year. I feel pretty confident that SAban will build this team through the draft. He'll have his choice at either one of the top QBs or RBs -- both big needs for the PHins. There is an underlying feeling in the NFL that as good as James is, he does not have a lot of big years left and his production could start dropping a little quicker than we might think. I know a lot of folks will disagree with that, but there is a little bit of a feeling that he has a Marshall Faulk-type syndrome that when he starts to fade, he may fade fast. Saban has enough time at Miami to build and develop young players.
E Diddy (Sacramento): With Raiders signing of Lamont Jordan, do you think he will be able to fit into Turner's offense, fill the role of an every down back, and help establish the running game which is much needed?
Gary Horton: I think the Lamont Jordan signing is one of the best so far in free agency. He is definitely a starting back and this RAiders offense now becomes scarey. With Moss and Porter and the other Raider receivers giving them a vertical passing game, it is almost impossible to load up vs. the run! You will see defenses forced to play a lot of man-to-man and nickel schemes which makes them soft vs. the run. Not only will the Raiders benefit from Lamont's running skills to help set up the passing game and play action, but Jordan will also benefit from the inability of defenses to zero in on him. He could be headed for a huge year behind a big, physical O-line. The happiest guy in the NFL today may be Kerry Collins who has been hand-delivered the perfect offense to suit his skills.
mike (Oxford, WI) : packer fan here they seem to be getting rid of the O line and plan to use unproven players. and has not done any thing to help their defence. i know its early but thing seem to be unraveling fast is there any hope for next year
Gary Horton: I'm more concerned about their O-line losses than I am about their defensive upgrade needs -- which is also very important. My fear is that with the loss of Wahle and Rivera, you could adversely affect Brett Favre's decision to return. If Brett continues to play, I thought you'd have to keep this outstanding OL group together. That has been a challenge the last few years, but they've been able to do it and Favre had a great relationship with them. Now, there is a new group and I think it may be time for Brett to leave b/c these guys are leaving. Even if he stays, it won't be the same top unit as it was a year ago. It will be OK, Mike Flannagan will be a great anchor at OC, but I really fear that the Pack is going in the wrong direction.
Sam (Boston): Are the Patriots in trouble with all their losses or will Bill Belichick make things work as usual? Thanks
Gary Horton: Most teams would probably be in trouble losing some key contributors and both coordinators ... but I think the Pats, as usual, will come out of this situation on top. They have coaches in place that know this offense and defense and keep in mind that as great as Charlie Weiss and Romeo were, this has and always will be Bill Belichick's team. He is heavily involved on both sides of the ball and he always knows what he wants to do. The great thing about New ENgland is that they avoid the 'star-system syndrome' making it a lot easier to replace players. You're not looking for the perfect replacement, you're just looking for a role player who can fill a need. B/c of that, the Pats aren't frozen by four or five players that make the diffence. They will fill in with some mid-level free agents, but they will likely have another outstanding draft where they wheel and deal and bring in another 6 or 7 rookies that will make the team and quietly have more turnover than you might expect from a Super Bowl champion team. They will get better and younger -- that's the beauty of how Bill Belichick organizations operate and why they will never just fall apart.
Gary Horton: Today was a lot of fun, some really though provoking questions. Maybe Plax will sign by the time we talk again on Wed., but I think we're starting to see now what the philosophical approach is of most organizations and how they are going to approach this offseason. It makes for a lot of interesting discussion. The great thing about chatting in March is that everybody's right and nobody is wrong. There are 32 teams out there that think they are going to the playoffs! This is great!