---------- Post added June-30th-2012 at 09:27 AM ----------
---------- Post added June-30th-2012 at 09:27 AM ----------
As with a few others of us I was really hoping we'd take TRob. Aside from the local guy angle I think he's a lock to be a great player, perhaps even a superstar if he develops as he should. I know the consensus is that our primary weakness was at SG. However all of our forwards have asterisks next to them, Nene because of age/durability/contract and the rest just aren't all that talented except possibly Seraphin. If Nene goes down for any length of time we're awfully close to being in the lottery again.
I don't have anything against Beal. I think he's a good shooter, a good guy and filled a glaring hole. However if he doesn't turn out to be Ray Allen part deux, we screwed up royally.
The trade essentially forced the wizards to take a shooting guard. Grunfeld would have to admit Singleton or Vesely is a bust or look like the NBAs Matt Millin drafting SF constantly if he went with Barnes or MKG. If we had drafted TRob Grunfeld would struggle to get him floor time and it's hard to market bench players. If e did throw him out there he'd have a 14 million dollar player cooling his heels making the trade look worse.
By going SG he doesn't have to admit any moves he's made are failures. It was Beal the moment Ernie bent over for the Hornets. I think the wizards would have tried to trade the pick or make Barnes play SG had Beal gone 2nd,
Now we hope Beal can out perform his college numbers and pray we can sneak into the postseason until the team explodes in 2014.
What's the Beal with it?
I was begging for trob didn't think we would get thr chance and I'm going to say we just blew that.
I wanted TRob before the draft too. Double double machine big that plays like a man possessed, is humble, from D.C., and happens to be an authentic Wizards fan? That sounds perfect.
But there isn't a doubt in my mind Beal was the right pick. You can't just stockpile the best talent in the draft regardless of the other pieces on your team. If you do you end up with a mess like the Timberwolves or the Kings. They've got a logjam at certain positions and a deficiency at others leaving the roster unbalanced. Not only that, it stunts the development of your young players when you stifle their opportunities. Derrick Williams will never reach his potential in Minny if they don't clear the way in front of him. Too many forwards there. Just like Marcus Thornton, Jimmer, and Tyreke all hamper each other as ball dominant guards who can't truly run the point. You have to make your roster work.
I believe a similar logjam would have occurred here if we drafted TRob.. Drafting TRob means we would have had to deal some of our current players. You've got to remember roster building is about projecting people and getting a group of people together to form a team. Who was to be the odd man out? Booker is loved by his teammates. Nene is our high character influence, source of veteran stability, and our best front court player--he needs to be here for now. Okafor is untradeable right now. And we'd be fools to give up Seraphin right now. It would be a tough decision every way. Booker is the only viable option to trade and Booker is one of our biggest glue players. John has openly talked about how much he likes Booker and singled out Booker as one of his favorite teammates in the past. Dealing away one of his favorites to make room for a rookie doesn't seem like the best way to make John happy and facilitate his development.
Plus Booker is starting to show he can play. He's a second year player with a PER over 15. That suggests he's going to be a good NBA player. He's our man for all the dirty work. Excellent in the pick and roll, rebounds, plays physical defense on big post players. A young player like that is important to keep around. Guys like that are why Boston and L.A. had championship caliber rosters after they added their key All Stars and why Miami petered out last year. You need roster glue and quality role players.
Beal himself also projects as a better SG than TRob as a PF in the NBA IMO. Beal is skilled, cerebral, and intense. He's got such a nice package of upside and safety. I read some western conference GM thought Beal was the safest pick in the top 5. I think Beal is the better package deal at the three major phases of the game than TRob is, making him a more complete option for us. Relative to his position, Beal is nearly as good a rebounder as TRob is. Beal is a much better defensive player than TRob at this point. Beal is a terrific defender. Strong, cognizant, fast, athletic, and relentless. He was in a class by himself defensively in this guard class. Best defensive rebounder and best shotblocker by a country mile in the class. Relentless running through screens and chasing guards around the perimeter. Excellent help defender who understands rotations remarkably well for an 18 year old. And fast enough to stay in front of athletic guards when he's on the ball. He's going to be a high quality NBA defender.
And Beal has a clearly defined and projectable NBA role on offense whereas TRob is still developing his NBA niche offensively. A spin move and a jump hook, nice ability to dribble penetrate for a big, and a willingness (but not really an ability) to face up and shoot from range is what TRob has right now. That doesn't add up to an NBA offensive game though. Beal already shows a high level ability to be a classic off ball shooting guard. He knows how to facilitate offensive movement by working to get open off the ball. He knows how to use screens and cuts and set defenders up to get his space. This, just as much as his shot, is the reason he gets so many Ray Allen comparisons. He looks like Allen the way he moves around on the court. And his shot is perfect. It's perfect almost every time he shoots. And it's lightning quick. I think he ends up being a more successful shooter than Harrison Barnes because of that speed. He doesn't need much of a window to let her rip.
I think Beal is the perfect SG to pair with Wall. We're constructed a lot like the Bulls. But unlike the Bulls, we were bad long enough to find ourselves a terrific potential SG to go with our PG. Not only that, I think Beal improves what we get out of Crawford. He eventually pushes Crawford to the bench, a role he's always been better suited for (like Jamaal Crawford). The only reason we had to start Crawford is because we didn't have anyone better ahead of him. Jordan can come in and dominate the ball as the sixth man without killing our offensive efficiency for the game and keeping John from getting in rhythm. He's a quick starter and high energy player that is useful for his ability to run point. So he'll thrive playing with either Wall or Beal most likely. Plus we've now got an interesting three guard lineup we can use to get ourselves some mismatches depending on the right situations.
Now we just need Vesely and Singleton to start developing like Seraphin and Booker did last season. They need to realize their defensive potential. They are two very different players and both equally important for our small ball ability. Singleton is the on ball guy and the strong post defender. Vesely is a potential freak covering the passing lanes with his superior anticipation and his rare length plus Vesely has huge potential as a weakside help defender and shot blocker. He understands rotations well, has great hands, and is so long and quick he's really pesky. Offensively, Vesely is probably our best pick and roll option down the line and Singleton should eventually be able to knock down corner threes as a kick out option making him a Battier-esque 3 and D player in a couple of seasons.
I like where we are headed now. I don't think 40 wins is out of the picture for us next season. I'd love to see us make the playoffs and get to battle it out with a series against the Heat or Bulls or Pacers.
I'm joking about TRob being distracted by the night life, but the DC night scene is undefeated.
I actually think more of the local people he know would be a distraction tho, more than the clubs.
---------- Post added July-1st-2012 at 10:47 AM ----------
Unless Anthony Davis gains 20 lbs, I dont think he is going to win ROTY. It will be Jeremy Lamb, IMHO.
Lamb is going to have a hard time getting opportunities and minutes.
I could see Barnes or Austin Rivers winning it because they'll probably be day one starters. Rivers will get to gun too because Gordon is the only other one going to get shots on that entire team. He could take 20+ shots a night right out the game. Doesn't mean he will win it though, because voters aren't going to be impressed by inefficient high volume scoring.
I think Davis will win it because he';s widely regarded as the best in the class and voters won't expect him to score much. He could rebound in double digits and block two shots a game and win it with 12 PPG and above 50% FG%.
---------- Post added July-1st-2012 at 12:46 PM ----------
I could see Beal winning ROTY too if it's one of those years where nobody's scoring statistics are crazy.
He'll shoot efficiently, rebound, and defend. It'll be one of those holistic efforts that the basketball journalists will appreciate and celebrate so long as no rookie goes off for 20+ PPG on good shooting.
He'll also be on a rising team which will help his profile. Especially if we make a playoff push.
But I could see it being a couple months into the season before he gets to start too, which would kill his chances of winning it.
NBA players will go right through davis unless he adds some girth to his frame. I see it going down to T-Rob and Lilliard. I think team success may play a factor as well. MKG is my darkhorse though, if he discovers a jumper I don't think it'd be out of the question for him to put up 15-7-4 on that team.
Seeing some of these FA deals being offered/signed, I feel MUCH better about what EG/Ted did with the acquisitions of Nene, Ariza, and Oakfor. None of those deals are crippling....but 4/40 for Gerald Wallace...MAX deal for Hibbert...Max deal for Batum...etc....
Lack of strength in your big is less of a deal now than it's ever been.
New Orleans could also help him out by getting him a strong positional defender to play at PF/C along side Davis.
---------- Post added July-1st-2012 at 05:07 PM ----------