Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
stevemcqueen1
If I were using hindsight available today to make that pick, yeah I'd have just taken Watt. If not that, I'd have either taken Quinn, or made the trade down for Kerrigan, and used that second rounder for Stephen Paea (this shouldn't have needed hindsight to make that call, Paea was a stud and first round talent).
It took Paea a year to get on the field as a starter, though. And as of right now, Paea only has two and a half sacks in his career and only a half sack this season. Paea's greatest asset was his power, but he was still relatively raw as a pass rusher. He's a solid player, but let's not over inflate him and call him a stood because of his physical assets; his play on the field thus far (and the season is early) hasn't dictated that he is a stud.
Paea is a one-gap run stuffer who would've been swallowed alive playing nose tackle or defense end in a 3-4 defense. Jarvis has similiar-ish production and was a better fit for what we wanted. Apparently. I don't think the leap from Paea to Jenkins is all that huge, and given Paea's relativively minimal impact on the Bears continued insistence that he's a stud is kind of silly.
J.J Watt is a stud. He produces. Stephen Paea has an interesting physical skillset, just like Quinn has an interesting physical skillset. That does not automaticaly make either one studs.
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Soooo back to the whole draft database and college evaluation thing, any of you college junkies do some studying of free safeties this weekend?
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
I mean, just look at Quinn's combine workout. Is it me or does he just not look comfortable on his feet, like, at all?
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combin...t-Robert-Quinn
And compare that to the way Ryan looked on his feet...
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combin...-Ryan-Kerrigan
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dukes and Skins
But I dont think we will go RT in the 2nd. Its not Shanny's style. Even the almighty Eric Winston was a 3rd rounder, and there is good value there now.
What do you think we go with for our 2nd and 3rd rounders, then?
Safety followed by RT?
I'm really coming around to the idea that we need a disruptive DL player, but worry that we don't have the ammo (ie, lack of high round draft picks) to make it happen.
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
I think the thing we're discussing in Watt versus Kerrigan/Quinn is "is a superstar worth 1 Pro Bowl caliber player, and 2-3 solid starters, which Hankerson and Jenkins still have a chance of becoming?)
It's easy to say "yes" now because Watt is looking like the next Reggie White (and I really feel Kerrigan is being hampered by the lack of pressure from ANYWHERE else on the field) but facing a thin roster and needing help everywhere, you take your chances that Kerrigan is an A to Watt's A+ (as opposed to be an A+++++++++++++++++++) and hope you get production with lower picks. And we've gotten it - we've just had horrible luck with injuries these past few years, given that we lost our 2011 2-4 picks to season ending injuries or are just getting them BACK from season-ending injuries, we lost our top 2010 pick to injury/suspension, and our top 2009 pick to a season ending injury. I don't think you can hold that against the front office.
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
hunterx
Soooo back to the whole draft database and college evaluation thing, any of you college junkies do some studying of free safeties this weekend?
Been studying Free Safeties for a while now. What do you want to know?
---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 01:21 PM ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bird_1972
What do you think we go with for our 2nd and 3rd rounders, then?
Safety followed by RT?
I'm really coming around to the idea that we need a disruptive DL player, but worry that we don't have the ammo (ie, lack of high round draft picks) to make it happen.
I'd expect our draft to be something like CB/S in round 2 and a DL in round 3. I would seriously target Sheldon Richardson in round 3
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dukes and Skins
Man, some people in here wont admit when they are wrong.....
EDIT: I'd personally rather be wrong 100 times and learn from it, then claim to be right every single time.
In that news, Sheldon Price got worked by Oregon St recently. His performance from the Houston game, which I highlighted, is now minimized. Of course I didn't claim him to be anything great ... or anything at all, for that matter. But as it were, the rollercoaster keeps going.
What you said reminds me of McCants last year. He showed up for C-USA, but when tasked to play against the best seniors of the country he fell apart in the senior bowl workouts and combine.
After that I had to quietly remove him from any draft lists and placed him as undraftable. Of course I didn't proclaim as such, so maybe someone might of thought I was championing trash, but I would have passed on him for the entire draft.
The thing is, I noticed his athleticism early on, no one was talking about him, but then when it was clear he couldn't muster it strength wise, I had to admit he wasn't that good of a prospect - albeit internally. Lacked base as it were. What would have been bulled-headed, is if I had remained high on him after watching his performance during the senior bowl. Thankfully I saw that and was able to move away from him prior to the draft.
Others found it necessary to trash him, rightfully so, but I guess it takes a certain something to go out of your way to admit the devalue process of a prospect that previously you alone had been charging.
So it happens.
---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 01:32 PM ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dukes and Skins
I would seriously target Sheldon Richardson in round 3
I like that ... :)
Though, I'm seeing athleticism from him that pushes his stock higher than that. I'm guessing / hoping for 2nd round right now (though I've read some articles that have him as a 1st rounder, some commentators speculating the same) because he lines up in 0 tech, 2/3 Tech, 5 Tech and every so often comes form a 2-point stand-up.
I don't know, I get a feeling about him that dovetails to things I felt last year with other prospects.
I mean I liked Ronnie Hillman - he was gone before the Skins had a chance. I liked Casey Hayward - gone. TY Hilton, Brian Quick, TJ Graham, Isaiah Pead, Miles Burris, etc. ... all those guys I liked and hoped were going to be around for the Skins were not.
Though the Skins did pass on Burris I guess, but the skilled players I think were all gone.
My lesson learned: if you like someone, don't wait, don't get cute, another team will grab him. Don't hope for a fall, navigate to a place to get the guy you want, don't let other teams dictate terms to you.
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DogofWar1
The injuries to Jenkins, Hankerson, and Helu have been unfortunate, but they're still contributing. Hankerson might be a little buried atm, but he's definitely playing well, and is still growing. While he could end up gone, I somewhat doubt it, there's too much upside, considering his salary is basically nil. Jenkins might not be Paea, but he's still playing well, and hopefully he stays healthy and continues to improve. Helu, I think, has a better chance of sticking around than Royster, Helu is fast enough to be the speed back to Morris' workhorse.
We used our own pick to get Jenkins. We could have both him and Paea plus Kerrigan. That would be a beast group. You'd get a little of everything out of it. If Kerrigan becomes a Probowler (which I'm really hoping he gets in this year now that Rak is out), then that would make up the difference of not having a Watt style DL. You get your disruptive player in Paea plus your run stopper in Jenkins.
My gripe is more with the fact we kept trading down after the first one instead of taking some of that second round talent. I'd rather have a good second rounder than Hankerson and all of the others.
Quote:
I think in general, you want to find a pro-bowler and at least two other starters every draft where you have picks in all 7 round, and a couple more depth guys. 2011 so far looks pretty good in that regard. Kerrigan is playing great, Jenkins is a starter (due to injury, yes, but he was in the rotation from the start), Hankerson is getting snaps consistently and should get more as he develops. Gomes, Robinson, and Hurt so far are just depth, but that's alright, they're cheap, and Helu we'll have to see but I think he still has a role to play. Hurt I think will be an interesting guy to watch, he could end up a starter as early as next year, and if he plays well suddenly the 2011 class looks much better.
Your standards are even higher than mine. If you can get three long term contributors out of a class, that's alright. If you get four or more (success rate on over half the picks), that's beating the odds and drafting well.
We had a 12 man class, so a success rate on over half of them is highly unlikely. But four or five long term contributors from the group means you've gotten a strong class. Will we reach that mark?
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Monk4thaHALL
I like that ... :)
Though, I'm seeing athleticism from him that pushed his stock higher than that. I'm guessing 2nd round right now because he lines up in 0 tech, 2/3 Tech, 5 Tech and every so often comes form a 2-point stand-up.
I don't know, I get a feeling about him that dovetails to things I felt last year with other prospects.
I mean I liked Ronnie Hillman - he was gone before the Skins had a chance. I liked Casey Hayward - gone. TY HIlton, Brian Quick, TJ Graham, Isaiah Pead, Miles Burris, etc. ... all those guys I liked and hoped were going to be around for the Skins were not.
Though the Skins did pass on Burris I guess, but the skilled players I think were all gone.
My lesson learned: if you like someone, don't wait, don't get cute, another team will grab him. Don't hope for a fall, navigate to a place to get the guy you want, don't let other teams dictate terms to you.
Right now I think he's a 3rd rounder, but he very well could end up being a 2nd round pick when its all said and done. He'd be a dream for a D Coordinator to work with. Can get the pass rush, stops the run and is easily the best player on a mediocre at best Defense
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dukes and Skins
Been studying Free Safeties for a while now. What do you want to know?[COLOR="Gold"]
I'm trying to keep myself updated on the performance of the free safeties we could target in round 2. Those being Reid, Rambo, McDonald and Jefferson.
Georgia got rocked by SC but only completed 6 passes...was Rambo unable to help defend the run? Was his tackling a liability at all?
Jefferson and company forced 3 interceptions from TTU, what part did he play in those turnovers?
Reid and the secondary were pretty dominating against UF, only giving up 61 yards. But the team did give up over 160 rushing yards, albeit the YPC weren't very good. I watched the end of this game, and Reid seemed to be all over the field being involved in nearly every defensive play.
McDonald was part of another strong secondary unit, giving up about 200 yards in the air but a low 5.5 ypa.
Were you able to watch some of these games, or have you heard how they fared individually in them?
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Of all of those guys I only kept up on McDonald and Reid. McDonald looked very typical of himself plays very wild, but at the same time he makes plays. Still looks like a early to mid 2nd round pick.
As for Reid, I'm lost on how people are moving him out of the 1st. He's a very consistent safety, who may not make the big plays, but he is very good. I think in the NFL his skills will be on display with his ability to play the run but also defend well in the pass. Another name to watch from that UF and LSU game was Matt Elam. Had a very strong game there
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NLC1054
It took Paea a year to get on the field as a starter, though. And as of right now, Paea only has two and a half sacks in his career and only a half sack this season. Paea's greatest asset was his power, but he was still relatively raw as a pass rusher. He's a solid player, but let's not over inflate him and call him a stood because of his physical assets; his play on the field thus far (and the season is early) hasn't dictated that he is a stud.
Paea is a one-gap run stuffer who would've been swallowed alive playing nose tackle or defense end in a 3-4 defense. Jarvis has similiar-ish production and was a better fit for what we wanted. Apparently. I don't think the leap from Paea to Jenkins is all that huge, and given Paea's relativively minimal impact on the Bears continued insistence that he's a stud is kind of silly.
J.J Watt is a stud. He produces. Stephen Paea has an interesting physical skillset, just like Quinn has an interesting physical skillset. That does not automaticaly make either one studs.
Paea was a stud in college. Wasn't using his NFL career to make that claim. On draft day, it was clear Paea was a stud and a first rounder. He fell to the second because of injury.
It was an injury that kept him out his rookie season.
This year he's been a beast though. The Bears defense is probably top 3 overall, they've been just hellacious. I don't care what his stats are, his is a position where he can totally dominate and not get any stats. Case in point is him against the Rams. He was an absolute beast that game and only got only 2 tackles and a half sack. Paea has been consistently blowing up the LoS this year and looks fantastic so far. It's not like Henry Melton is some world beater, his looks are coming from playing beside Paea, who has consistently been the guy deep in the backfield and flushing plays. The Bears lead the league in sacks and PFF has Paea as the team's highest graded pass rusher despite the fact he's only got a half sack on the year.
He's been a force. Don't go off of just the stats, watch him and you'll see. He's also a big time disruptor, not just a run stuffer.
I think you're wrong that Paea would struggle at NT in a 2 gap 3-4. Without a doubt, that dude is one of the most powerful players in the NFL. Possibly the most powerful. He could hold up physically in any scheme.
And once again, it's worth pointing out that if a scheme can't use extraordinary talents at DL, then it's the scheme that is useless, not the player. Keeping that scheme is not a good reason for passing on those players.
---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 02:17 PM ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NLC1054
You're suggesting Quinn wouldn't be able to play OLB? I certainly disagree, and I think this is pretty flimsy evidence for the claim.
You could tell from their college film Quinn is a more fluid and balanced athlete than Kerrigan. You can see it in the way each hit the edge on their outside rushes. If Kerrigan can play OLB as well as he has, I've no doubt Quinn could play OLB too. He's a superior athlete to Kerrigan.
Looking at those videos side by side, Quinn looks a lot more balanced and a lot smoother than Kerrigan. He's also more explosive and really uncoils. Kerrigan's video does not make me think "LB" when I view it. He's outperformed expectations.
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dukes and Skins
Right now I think he's a 3rd rounder, but he very well could end up being a 2nd round pick when its all said and done. He'd be a dream for a D Coordinator to work with. Can get the pass rush, stops the run and is easily the best player on a mediocre at best Defense
This is a vid I came across, make of it what you will - it's Russ Lande's opinion. He says the rumblings have him end of 1st, early 2nd.
http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-foo...u1bj8nrdiqf46s
I agree about his ability to penetrate, first step, quickness. There are times he can get swallowed up, stymied.
I mean I keep telling myself, if Dontari Poe is selected in the 1st round based purely on his size and athleticism, but lacking good tape, I wonder about a guy who obviously flashes on the tape, but not the same size, maybe similar athletic measurables when all said and done.
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bird_1972
I'm really coming around to the idea that we need a disruptive DL player, but worry that we don't have the ammo (ie, lack of high round draft picks) to make it happen.
Well, we can hope one falls into the second or third. It has happened recently, Paea is an example. He was a first round talent, had all the intangibles too, but he got hurt around the time of the draft and he wasn't only about 6' or 6'1 or so, so he dropped.
One player I like who might be there when we pick in the second is Kawann Short. He's got all of the physical measurables though, and his college production is ridiculous. So I'm not holding out hope he'll drop too far. But for whatever reason, he doesn't have a lot of first round buzz right now and he's still in the second round picture. The draft advisory board gave him a third round grade following last season. If they're conservative by a round, then hopefully we'll have a chance at him in the second.
Re: 2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database
Quote:
Originally Posted by
stevemcqueen1
We used our own pick to get Jenkins. We could have both him and Paea plus Kerrigan. That would be a beast group. You'd get a little of everything out of it. If Kerrigan becomes a Probowler (which I'm really hoping he gets in this year now that Rak is out), then that would make up the difference of not having a Watt style DL. You get your disruptive player in Paea plus your run stopper in Jenkins.
My gripe is more with the fact we kept trading down after the first one instead of taking some of that second round talent. I'd rather have a good second rounder than Hankerson and all of the others.
I'm sort of in agreement with that, I kind of felt sad we kept trading down after the 2nd round, I'm a sucker for big name talent. Still the guys we got haven't been bad, and I think we'll get a starter or two out of them in the end.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
stevemcqueen1
Your standards are even higher than mine. If you can get three long term contributors out of a class, that's alright. If you get four or more (success rate on over half the picks), that's beating the odds and drafting well.
We had a 12 man class, so a success rate on over half of them is highly unlikely. But four or five long term contributors from the group means you've gotten a strong class. Will we reach that mark?
Well, I feel like the 1st rounder should almost always hit, and the 2nd and 3rd rounder should be starters or rotational starters by the end of the 1st two years. If say, two of the four remaining guys end up as backups or depth, then that's pretty good. I feel like you want to draft with a success rate so that you can 100% turn over the starters every 7-8 years and the depth about every 10 years, with cheap FAs used in between to fill the gaps for depth (since many will probably be let go at the end of 4 years).
For 2011, Kerrigan, Jenkins, and Hankerson all are getting significant playtime, so currently I'd rate them as hits, though still developing. Gomes, Paul, Robinson, and Hurt I feel like are decent cheap depth, with Paul doing pretty well on special teams. Nield was looking pretty good as a backup to Cofield too before his injury. White is bubble, I guess I'll count him as a miss since he wouldn't be here if not for Orakpo's injury. Helu and Royster are special cases due to their injuries, but I think Helu has some long term backup value. The only one we've really completely cut ties with is Brandyn Thompson. So I count 3 starters, 4 backups, 5 if we count Nield, and possibly even more, depending on Helu's, Royster's, and White's ultimate fates. I'd say that's a pretty decent class.
Of course, that's only if you've got picks in all 7 rounds. For 2013, without the first, I might only expect 2 starters from the '13 class by the '15 season.
Safety and RT please, I want some pass protection on the right side.
