Playoff Scenerio Thread (Just The Facts)

Deleted the previous OP and am simplifying for Week 17:

Obviously, the easiest thing to wrap your brain around is the East Title is on the line Sunday Night. We win, we are the champs and we will be the #4 seed and play at home in the wild card round. If we lose, then Dallas wins the East and will be the #4 seed.

There is no way for us to lose and win the East.

There is ONE way for us to lose and still be a wild card (because we are the Sunday Night game we will know before kickoff):

--Bears lose in Detroit
--Vikings lose at home to Green Bay

Bears play at 1:00; Vikings at 4:25..... If they both lose, we will clinch th playoffs prior to our game starting. If one or both win, then our game becomes a true "win or go home" situation for both teams.

No other games on the schedule affect our playoff hopes

If you wanted to peak ahead the Cards-Niners and Rams-Seahawks games could affect WHO we play if we make the playoffs, but for the sake of keeping it simple I won't go into that here.

I think our odds of clinching prior to our game are significantly better than most seem to believe.

--I watched the Bears today... Their offense is horrible. No exxageration- give Arizona an average NFL QB instead of a putrid one and they either win that game or keep it very close. Detroit has had a miserable year and the fear of course is that they've already checked out for the season. Very possible. But generally speaking, teams like the Lions can motivate themselves for one game to take out a division rival. If things go poorly early for Detroit, I could see them tanking, but if they get off to a good start, the Bears will struggle to score. Gotta lean Bears here of course, but I think it's a 60/40 type game. Lions absolutely have a shot.

--Packers will be motivated in Minnesota. They can clinch the #2 seed and a bye with a win. They play at the same time as SF, so they can't clinch anything prior to their game. I will be a little surprised if Minnesota wins this one.

So, the scenerios are much more simple now....

Thanks for this! Sticky this now!

Thanks. Can we delete all the other threads now?

Good stuff, kleese. Thanks!

Thanks man...I was waiting for someone to do it lol

This is the best playoff scenario thread I've read. I hope the MODS leave this open! Great job!

My dream scenario is we beat the eagles plus Cowboys, Giants, Bears, and Vikings lose in week 16. Meaning we would've already clinched a playoff spot going into the final game. And week 17 is all about winning the division in our house against our most hated rival!!

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Originally Posted by redskins55

This is the best playoff scenario thread I've read. I hope the MODS leave this open! Great job!

My dream scenario is we beat the eagles plus Cowboys, Giants, Bears, and Vikings lose in week 16. Meaning we would've already clinched a playoff spot going into the final game. And week 17 is all about winning the division in our house against our most hated rival!!

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Under your dream scenerio, the Cowboys don't need to lose. We'd still clinch. Cowboys-Saints game is immaterial to us

Thank you, seriously, thank you. Im sitting here with the playoff calculator and man there were just crazy things.
Heres one you havent listed though.
IF per say, we lose to the eagles but TIE the Cowboys at the end of the year, do we still get the nod?

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Originally Posted by kleese

-Bears to lose one
-Vikings to lose one
-Seahawks to lose two

I would say our playoff chances under scenerio number two are around 75% or so.

3. Redskins beat Eagles, lose to Cowboys. This would be tough. We'd be eliminated from the East race so our only hope would be a WC. We would need three of the following four things to happen:

-Giants lose one
-Bears lose one
-Vikings lose one
-Seahawks lose two

Thinking this would be around a 50/50 proposition.

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First off, this thread is amazing!

I do think the chances of either of these two scenarios playing out in our favor are more of a stretch than 50/50 or 75%. There are just too many contingencies that need to play out for either of these overall scenarios to be above 50%.

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Originally Posted by redskins4ever28

Thank you, seriously, thank you. Im sitting here with the playoff calculator and man there were just crazy things.
Heres one you havent listed though.
IF per say, we lose to the eagles but TIE the Cowboys at the end of the year, do we still get the nod?

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Man, that makes my brain hurt. But I believe Dallas still wins...we'd need lots of help in that scenerio

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redskins4ever28

Thank you, seriously, thank you. Im sitting here with the playoff calculator and man there were just crazy things.
Heres one you havent listed though.
IF per say, we lose to the eagles but TIE the Cowboys at the end of the year, do we still get the nod?

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I would Yes because we won the first time, meaning that we would be 1-0-1 against them and they would be 0-1-1, meaning we have the tie breaker by beating them the first go round.
As long as the Giants lose to the Ravens. We would be 9-6-1 as would the Cowboys BUT we hold the tie breaker because we won the first go round. The Giants would have to lose to The Ravens or the Eagles, they would be 9-7.

The chances of us tieing are almost nothing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TE#80

First off, this thread is amazing!

I do think the chances of either of these two scenarios playing out in our favor are more of a stretch than 50/50 or 75%. There are just too many contingencies that need to play out for either of these overall scenarios to be above 50%.

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Depends on your perception. I think losing to Philly/beating Dallas still gives us 75% or better odds. First of all, if the Giants lose one we would still win the East... If put that alone at 50%. Then even if Giants win twice, we still need the Bears and Vikes to just lose one. I'll stick with my 75% mark on that one.

Scenerio #3 might be less than 50% though

---------- Post added December-17th-2012 at 03:20 PM ----------

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Originally Posted by RedskinsandRockBandFan

I would Yes because we won the first time, meaning that we would be 1-0-1 against them and they would be 0-1-1, meaning we have the tie breaker by beating them the first go round.
As long as the Giants lose to the Ravens. Actually scratch that, i have no clue haha.

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I think you are correct actually, but seriously, lets not get bogged down in the tie scenerios... It will derail and confuse us all :)

Huh.

Here's me the past two weeks looking at possible WC opponents having clinched the division already at 10- 6.

You mean there's a chance we might not get in?

Hail.

Thanks for making a very precise and outlined thread. I was getting a little tired of all the other ones with all the confusion in them. With that said:

Skins control their own destiny and are in better shape than the Giants and the Cowboys at the moment. But I would really like the Skins to just win the last two. Take care of our business and we get the NFCE crown and be the in playoffs to host the Seahawks. :)

What are the chances that Skins get the division by winning out but Cowboys manage to get the #6 seed?

Then if we got the #3 we would play them two weeks in a row, correct?