Mad Mike's Post Draft Review. (Long)

[Mad Mike]

What I would like to do here is give my opinions of our draft over all and some thoughts on some of our picks, why I think we did what we did and chose who we chose. I hope you find some merit in it.

By now, a lot of people may know by now that I was high on drafting Jordy Nelson. I still think he's going to be a great player and he's going to be outstanding for Green Bay. But here's the lesson about not falling in love with a player... Unless it is clear from the beginning that your team is taking that player you are likely to be disappointed because teams have a different take on the draft process. They know that falling in love with a player makes you do dumb things like give up all your picks for a Ricky Williams. The other thing they know is that you stick to your board. Those are players you know the most about. Getting jumpy and picking players you did not first intend to and have not thoroughly vetted can land you players that have problems you might have missed.

So how does this apply to our draft? I think that the redskins were going to draft two receivers one way or another if they could. I also think the Redskins were going to draft Jordy thinking that he would be one of the two available. I also think they had a logical order they were following and they got the best guys available. We will never know if Jordy was ranked ahead of Kelly in their minds because Green Bay made the choice for them, and for Green Bay I think it was the best choice because if you are going to take only one receiver out of those remaining, Jordy Nelson was the closest thing to a sure pick you are going to find. In fact I would say that the only thing better than drafting
Jordy was drafting the other two best receivers on the board, including the guy most people think was the best receiver in the draft.

So why draft two receivers now? A couple of reasons. 1) We had a big need at that position. We have been coming up short there for years (pardon the pun). 2) Two top picks are more likely to produce one outstanding receiver than one pick can. 3) Receivers usually take time to develop. A new system for the team, QB, and rookie receivers could take a year or two to really get going. Why not get everyone (including the new TE and OG) in place from the start so they can all develop together? This was really a smart long term move by the Redskins. And 4)... hopefully the two rookies will see this as a competition and push each other.

OK so let's look at the picks:

2) Devin Thomas WR - Likely the best receiver in the draft at our biggest need. A no brainer when he fell to us.
2) Fred Davis TE - My WTF moment but once you realize the importance of a two TE set, a great pickup.
2) Malcolm Kelly WR - Great potential here and he will give us lots of options. 4 wide anyone?
3) Chad Rinehart OG - He should be good for depth this year and could be starting next year. Makes the first three picks better.
4) Justin Tryon CB - Depth at the #3 slot and he may even start. A good need pick who should contribute.
6) Durant Brooks P - We needed this guy. In a game of field position he could be a huge weapon.
6) Kareem Moore S - Good depth and a guy who could develop into a starter. Special teams.
6) Colt Brennan QB - Not sure about this guy but Zorn thinks he can coach him up in a few years. He was picked after a punter so....
7) Rob Jackson DE - They must see something but he's a project at best. I'm hoping we make some other DL move soon.
7) Chris Horton FS - You can never have too many safeties and line backers playing special teams.

There you have it. At least as I see things. I still wish we had picked up a big time DE or DT. I think its a huge weakness that can hurt us this year if we do not address it. Hopefully we can find some help somewhere and if we make a trade, we don't have to give up too much to get someone. For that reason, the biggest question to me is still going to be Fred Davis. Did we need him that much? Was he rated that much higher than any of the available DEs or DTs? Do we have a plan for the DL that is still in play?Those are questions that will have to wait for answers; maybe until the team hits the field in September.

My draft rating: At worst a B+. Great draft with one piece missing. But I could be wrong. It was a bold draft and a year or two from now we may all be giving them an A+ for building a championship caliber offense. All I know now is that September cant get here soon enough.

[Reaganaut]

You practically speak for me too Mike. Great analysis. I do like the Brennan pick a little more than most. I stayed up for those late games and think he will be a Tony Romo type of pick.

[helptheSKINS]

Good job Mike. I agree with your analysis on all of them actually.

[ouvan59]

I agree with most of what you posted. I'm probably a little higher on the Davis pick than most. I'm probably not as confident that anybody beyond the punter will ever be a real contributor. I look at the 6th and 7th round as "throwing spaghetti at the wall" guys. Even the best GMs have very low percentage hits in these rounds. People love to point at New England and Brady in particular as evidence they do very well in the later rounds but the truth is they are no better or worse than anybody else. Almost all of their picks in the 6th and 7th round have been out of the league within 2 or 3 years. So I don't expect much from these guys but it's nice to have a lot of these picks because they are generally cheap and hungry. If you do luck out and find a player then it's big.

[MurrayH81]

Going to have to agree with MM on this one.

Two highly rated recievers gives us better odds of having a top performer, and back-up in case of injury.

The same can be said for having to similar tight ends. If Capt. Chaos views his role as assisting the development and attitude of Davis, I see this a going from good to great.

I am very high on the Punter. Many people poo-poo punters in general, because they do not directly score points, and we haven't had a particularly good one in some time.

However, most people can see the value if they think about opponents pinned consistently deep, giving the defense legitimate opportunities to give the ball back to the offense with decent field position, or score a safety (or both). No offense in the pro's consistently drives the length of the field and scores, so a punter that can consistently pin the opposition deep, automatically makes your team one score better IMO. Add to that the fact that even on long punts, the guy doesn't outkick his coverage, and you add the opportunity for turn-overs, or again, reduce the potential for scoring (this time on special teams). Perhaps I view it differently, as I grew up watching the SD Chargers, who had to play Ray Guy twice a year, although Redskins fans should remember him from our losing Superbowl season.

[leesburgvaskinsfan]

MM, I like your analysis too. Nice laydown on each pick! Thanks!

Hail!

[Smoot Point Really]

I believe the Redskins have actually done something extraordinary with this draft, and it's been something that I've been mentioning since the end of the season.

The philosophy: Draft to build a team, fill holes in Free Agency/Trade.

I believe they went in thinking they would take the BPA in every round... They stuck to their draft board, and I have to give them some credit for doing this. I scratched my head on a few picks, but for me it comes down to whether or not I can see this current crop contributing as Redskins for the next 5-10 years (or 15 in the punter's case).

I think if we were sitting with the 5th pick, we would've landed the player everyone wanted (Dorsey). At 21, they likely would've just taken Devin Thomas anyway. However, they didn't do this, traded down, and "lo-and-behold" there is Thomas sitting there 13 picks later and we improve our draft position in the 2nd round.

Devin Thomas - A lot of people call this player a "one year wonder", but if you look at most college players coming out, most of them are "one year wonders"... Limas Sweed was a "one year wonder" (and he had four years to put up big numbers). Donnie Avery had one season with over 90 catches and 900 yards... Jordy Nelson had one great year... I just can't really understand how people can single him out as a "one year wonder" and expect to win an argument against us taking this player.

Fred Davis - I thought this was going to be Calais Campbell or Trevor Laws (who I think Philly took just before this pick... I think Philly did this just to tick us off). However, this is pretty much the highest rated TE (Dustin Keller is solid, but mostly a big WR who was amazing at the combine). I believe that since we took this player, Zorn&co will find a way to use him. It looks like a "luxury pick", but to me it's a "team building" pick. This is someone you game plan FOR so other teams have to game plan AGAINST. You ask why do we need 2 TEs like Chris Cooley (Davis is an inch taller and 5 lbs heavier)? How many teams do we play who have two OLB/S who can keep up with 2 Chris Cooleys? You are talking about lining up with 2 TEs in a bunch formation and then splitting one or both out... They are both a threat and they should help open things up for Clinton Portis (even if neither can block a DE... Though I hear Cooley got a lot of practice last year).

Malcolm Kelly - My expectations are lower here, but I am hopeful that we'll all be pleasantly surprised. Kelly should be HIGHLY motivated based on his press clippings. In 5 years, our starting WRs could be Thomas and Kelly (and hopefully still Cooley and Davis at TE). If that happens, this was all worthwhile. I believe this was a team-building pick, not so much a need-filling pick. A 6'4" receiver with marginal speed, but really good acceleration (and hopefully healthier knees than reported) would qualify for the "big receiver" definition. I just hope he can block better than he raps.

Rinehart - Great pick and an offensive lineman you hope will be with the team 5-10 years.

Tryon - Has a lot of Smoot-type potential. If he is with the team in 5 years, this could be the type of guy who wins fans easily. Hopefully he has the heart and courage of Fred Smoot, or at least what Smoot has will rub off. It certainly sounds like it.

Brooks - A punter who you hope to pencil in and forget about the position for 10-15 years...

Moore - Backup to Laron Landry and a special teamer... A 6th round steal if he is on the team in 5 years.

Brennan - A clipboard holder who Zorn believes he can turn into an NFL-caliber QB. You can't deny the new coach his QB project. This is a team-building move.

Jackson & Horton - bottom of the 7th round... Expectations are about the same for these two as any of the UDFAs we bring in.

Anyway, I believe the team went in a new direction this year. We are drafting players, not needs... We may have over-valued the WRs based on need, but you can't argue the following point: Over the last 64 regular season games (With Joe Gibbs), our top 3 TD producing WRs have totaled 31 TDs... Chris Cooley alone has 27 TDs over the same period of time. How can our TE nearly out-produce our top 3 WRs over the same period of time?

Anyway, just some random thoughts on the subject...

[terpfan]

When you look at our weaknesses we actually addressed most of them. Here's what I thought they were.

1. Size/talent at WR - Obviously this has gone from a weakness to a major strength.
2. Depth on the OL - I think between Rinehart and Brown we did a fine job here. Especially if one of them can play center.
3. A nickel corner - Almost everything I read on Tryon mentioned that he would be ideal as a nickel corner.
4. Safety depth - We didnt spend a high pick on a safety, but we didnt need a starter. We did draft two for depth.

Which leads me to the two we didnt address...
1. An impact defensive lineman - We didnt need depth on the DL. We needed one really good player. With Merling, Balmer, and Jackson going off the board before our first pick, such a player was simply not available. Sure, we could have settled for a player like Dre Moore, Marcus Harrison, Calais Campbell (a 3-4 end), or Quentin Groves (a 3-4 LB). But are they really better than Montgomery, Golston, or Daniels+Wilson?
2. Linebacker depth - This is one position that does really worry me. I would have liked to grab Erin Henderson or some other LB with one of those 7th round picks. Of our three starters, one is 30 and injury prone (Washington), and one is coming off a serious knee injury (McIntosh). Not to mention we only have two reliable backups, one of which is really just a special teams player (Blades, Campbell).

And while we didnt address these two needs, we did get two great bonuses in the best TE in the draft (who will be a huge upgrade over Yoder) and the best punter in the draft (who could certainly be an upgrade over Frost).

So, in my opinion, we satisfactorily addressed 4 of our 6 needs, while also adding two other players who could be considered the best at their position. Given the situation, I think we did about as well as we could have. A B+ is certainly warranted.

[PlayAction]

Hopefully the Skins have finally solved the WR problem and the continuous search for a backup TE. I think Sellers will be full time FB again. Mainly blocking with the occasional pass to keep the Defenses honest. Whether all this new talent (+hopefully Mix) translates into more offensive production is the key.

The Defense though is a worry. We can talk about how well the Defense did last year despite no pass rush. But you can't stay still. The DL is a year older and couldn't get any pass rush even when fully healthy. The backup LB Godfrey is gone. The starting WLB will take a while to get back to full speed. The starting SLB is always injured. If the Offense can carry the team for one year the Skins may be able to turn the corner with another solid draft (this time for the Defense).

[pjfootballer]

I wish we could've snagged Brandon Coutu, K from UGA, but I wouldn't waste 2 picks on 2 Kickers. I like Coutu's career at GA and he has a hellava leg like Mason Crosby.

[bushwack]

I wish we could've snagged Brandon Coutu, K from UGA, but I wouldn't waste 2 picks on 2 Kickers. I like Coutu's career at GA and he has a hellava leg like Mason Crosby.

I'm not worried about Suisham, IMO he'll be a great asset for us. On the other hand Frost needs to be shown the door, his performance is shotty at best. Brooks will come in and make Frost look like the bum he truly is.

[BillyKilmer]

Very nice thread...

I am sure we will see a veteran D lineman or two added to the roster as camp opens. While the NFL no longer has the bloodbath of June 1st it once did. Thier will be players available and we have cap room.

[Reaganaut]

When you look at our weaknesses we actually addressed most of them. Here's what I thought they were.

1. Size/talent at WR - Obviously this has gone from a weakness to a major strength.
2. Depth on the OL - I think between Rinehart and Brown we did a fine job here. Especially if one of them can play center.
3. A nickel corner - Almost everything I read on Tryon mentioned that he would be ideal as a nickel corner.
4. Safety depth - We didnt spend a high pick on a safety, but we didnt need a starter. We did draft two for depth.

Which leads me to the two we didnt address...
1. An impact defensive lineman - We didnt need depth on the DL. We needed one really good player. With Merling, Balmer, and Jackson going off the board before our first pick, such a player was simply not available. Sure, we could have settled for a player like Dre Moore, Marcus Harrison, Calais Campbell (a 3-4 end), or Quentin Groves (a 3-4 LB). But are they really better than Montgomery, Golston, or Daniels+Wilson?
2. Linebacker depth - This is one position that does really worry me. I would have liked to grab Erin Henderson or some other LB with one of those 7th round picks. Of our three starters, one is 30 and injury prone (Washington), and one is coming off a serious knee injury (McIntosh). Not to mention we only have two reliable backups, one of which is really just a special teams player (Blades, Campbell).

And while we didnt address these two needs, we did get two great bonuses in the best TE in the draft (who will be a huge upgrade over Yoder) and the best punter in the draft (who could certainly be an upgrade over Frost).

So, in my opinion, we satisfactorily addressed 4 of our 6 needs, while also adding two other players who could be considered the best at their position. Given the situation, I think we did about as well as we could have. A B+ is certainly warranted.

I am surprised to find myself being led in this direction too. This is a great thead Mike. I feel a lot better Terp with your run through of the draft. The disappointment of not getting a second round DL ticked people off, but it isn't fatal to the team. We are going in an Offensive direction after having a decade of underachieving in that area. (Ugh... it's been since Norv hasn't it?) I'd like to see this thread bumped. Cheers.

[thinker]

I think that a factor that makes this situation even better is that we have about $8 million in cap room which seemed to have been cleared for CJ or AB. Now that might be used to pick up a late camp veteran cut as a stop gap at DT if our guys don't produce.

[#21Taylor4Ever]

Good job Mike.

At least your football opinions are better then your political ones.