The key states: Election Prediction

[Thiebear]

Realclearpolitics.com

Colorado     46.7	46.3	Obama +0.4
Virginia       45.7	  46.3	  McCain +0.6
Missouri      45.0	 47.3	 McCain +2.3
Michigan     46.0	42.8	Obama +3.2
Ohio           46.0	 45.5	  Obama +0.5
Florida        45.4	  47.2	  McCain +1.8

I think that McCain is going to win by 8 million votes overall out of 120.
I think he will also win every single state above.
Michigan will be close.

[Rdskns2000]

Obama will win Colorado. He may win Virginia, Ohio and Michigan. Mccain will win Missouri and Florida.

If Mccain picks a pro choice veep or Leiberman; then Obama wins all those states. Bob Barr will get alot of the conservative voters that actually vote if Mccain doesn't pick a conservative pro lifer for veep.

[Teller]

Save the cheerleader, save the world.

Win West Virginia, win the White House.

[Rdskns2000]

Oh as far turnout; it will be a record turnout among black and younger voters. Overall though it may not be as I think you will see record low turnout among other groups.

[moviedude25]

Oh as far turnout; it will be a record turnout among black and younger voters. Overall though it may not be as I think you will see record low turnout among other groups.

We hear this every 4 years and it never happens. Sorry but the youth won't show up.

As for the black vote it is completely horrible in my eyes. Why would I say that? If every White person voted for McCain simply because hes white like a lot of the black voters have admitted to on the talk radio I listen to then McCain wins in a landslide. Voting for a man or woman because he is a certain color makes me want to puke. And these people who are doing that should be ashamed.

I can't wait for this crap to be over

[DarrellsMyHero28]

I think Obama will take Virginia. He's making a massive push in the state, opening up offices all around both here in NOVA and in the southern part of the state.

As far as I can tell, McCain hasn't made as much of an effort and if he takes VA for granted he will lose.

[Thiebear]

Seems to me so far: The more commercials you do: the worse you do.
After 2 years people can't take it anymore.

[Tastes Like Chicken]

Obama will quickly attempt to force McCain to spend extensive resources in all of those states, plus a couple others like Georgia. Things will slow down for a period, then Obama will save a bollus of cash for a massive surge of ads in the final week or so before the election.

[Teller]

Things will slow down for a period, then Obama will save a bollus of cash for a massive surge of ads in the final week or so before the election.

We win.

[PokerPacker]

We win.

come on, that's not even american!

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

www.fivethirtyeight.com is the best website for all of this.

[Rdskns2000]

Mccain will have $82 million to spend this fall. Obama will have 500 million+. We will see Obama's face so much that Mccain will be an afterthought.

[Burgold]

Mccain will have $82 million to spend this fall. Obama will have 500 million+. We will see Obama's face so much that Mccain will be an afterthought.

Even better or worse, McCain started this trend of having ads where he just lards on about the opponent and at the end smiles and says, "I'm John McCain... I endorse all the mud that was just tossed at my opponent". That could backfire. McCain might be all but out of money and face twenty ads illustrating how he's a flip flopper, Bush hugger, economically weak and inexperienced, and a wife leaving rat with no money to respond.

[jpyaks3]

Obama

Colorado, he has polled ahead for the most part and the convention being there doesnt hurt.

Michigan, Consistently polled ahead in Michigan.

McCain

Florida

Missouri

Both states he has polled ahead in and are demographically strong for him


Toss-up or too close to call on election night

Virginia, Obama can win with massive turnout in Northern Virginia and the African American vote. He already has over 20 campaign offices set up in state. I think Obama will pull out a squeeker.

Ohio, Obama has polled ahead but only slightly. Could go either way but I am leaning towards Obama holding on.

[DarrellsMyHero28]

Virginia, Obama can win with massive turnout in Northern Virginia and the African American vote. He already has over 20 campaign offices set up in state. I think Obama will pull out a squeeker.

Don't forget all the college students in VA.

Between Tech, UVA, CNU, GMU, W&M, JMU, ODU etc. there are a ton of young voters.