The key states: Election Prediction

[Thiebear]

Realclearpolitics.com

Colorado     46.7	46.3	Obama +0.4
Virginia       45.7	  46.3	  McCain +0.6
Missouri      45.0	 47.3	 McCain +2.3
Michigan     46.0	42.8	Obama +3.2
Ohio           46.0	 45.5	  Obama +0.5
Florida        45.4	  47.2	  McCain +1.8

I think that McCain is going to win by 8 million votes overall out of 120.
I think he will also win every single state above.
Michigan will be close.

[Rdskns2000]

Obama will win Colorado. He may win Virginia, Ohio and Michigan. Mccain will win Missouri and Florida.

If Mccain picks a pro choice veep or Leiberman; then Obama wins all those states. Bob Barr will get alot of the conservative voters that actually vote if Mccain doesn't pick a conservative pro lifer for veep.

[Rdskns2000]

Oh as far turnout; it will be a record turnout among black and younger voters. Overall though it may not be as I think you will see record low turnout among other groups.

[Teller]

Save the cheerleader, save the world.

Win West Virginia, win the White House.

[DarrellsMyHero28]

I think Obama will take Virginia. He's making a massive push in the state, opening up offices all around both here in NOVA and in the southern part of the state.

As far as I can tell, McCain hasn't made as much of an effort and if he takes VA for granted he will lose.

[Thiebear]

Seems to me so far: The more commercials you do: the worse you do.
After 2 years people can't take it anymore.

[Tastes Like Chicken]

Obama will quickly attempt to force McCain to spend extensive resources in all of those states, plus a couple others like Georgia. Things will slow down for a period, then Obama will save a bollus of cash for a massive surge of ads in the final week or so before the election.

[Teller]

Things will slow down for a period, then Obama will save a bollus of cash for a massive surge of ads in the final week or so before the election.

We win.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

www.fivethirtyeight.com is the best website for all of this.

[Rdskns2000]

Mccain will have $82 million to spend this fall. Obama will have 500 million+. We will see Obama's face so much that Mccain will be an afterthought.

[Burgold]

Mccain will have $82 million to spend this fall. Obama will have 500 million+. We will see Obama's face so much that Mccain will be an afterthought.

Even better or worse, McCain started this trend of having ads where he just lards on about the opponent and at the end smiles and says, "I'm John McCain... I endorse all the mud that was just tossed at my opponent". That could backfire. McCain might be all but out of money and face twenty ads illustrating how he's a flip flopper, Bush hugger, economically weak and inexperienced, and a wife leaving rat with no money to respond.

[jpyaks3]

Obama

Colorado, he has polled ahead for the most part and the convention being there doesnt hurt.

Michigan, Consistently polled ahead in Michigan.

McCain

Florida

Missouri

Both states he has polled ahead in and are demographically strong for him


Toss-up or too close to call on election night

Virginia, Obama can win with massive turnout in Northern Virginia and the African American vote. He already has over 20 campaign offices set up in state. I think Obama will pull out a squeeker.

Ohio, Obama has polled ahead but only slightly. Could go either way but I am leaning towards Obama holding on.

[DarrellsMyHero28]

Virginia, Obama can win with massive turnout in Northern Virginia and the African American vote. He already has over 20 campaign offices set up in state. I think Obama will pull out a squeeker.

Don't forget all the college students in VA.

Between Tech, UVA, CNU, GMU, W&M, JMU, ODU etc. there are a ton of young voters.

[jpyaks3]

Obama is investing heavily on the ground game which may not show up in the polls and provide a boost on election day. His GOTV effort is incredible and I believe will make the difference in swing states.

Here is an article on the ground game which has Obama having 3 times more field offices

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...-in-field.html

Here is another article on the subject

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...ven-close.html

McCain's campaign made 20,000 door knocks and calls in July it is now up to 324,000 for the week

Obama's campaign made 109,029 phone calls, in Ohio, on Monday.

This shows the differences in approach McCain is running ads while not focusing on the ground game, this shows up in polls pretty quickly. Obama is investing heavily in the ground game which takes a while to show up in the polls and builds over time.

[Hubbs]

In the primaries, Obama climbed in the polls in almost every single state as election day closed in.

Obama also wound up several points higher than almost all of the latest state polls predicted, largely because of new voters that don't get called.

Obviously, there are many differences in the general election, but I expect the same pattern in most states, including the battlegrounds. Obama's ground game has been and still is so far ahead of his competitors that they just can't keep up.