*Updated for week 17*
Alright, week 16 is in the books, and from a drafting standpoint, it couldn't have gone much better. From a "wanting to kill Dallas" standpoint, it sucked, but looking to next April, not so bad. Here's the current draft order:
Currently, the Redskins sit in 5th place. Here's the link showing opponents win percentage, which currently has us playing the 4th weakest schedule in the league.
Additionally, other members have posted a new link, showing pick odds, which looks really cool. It can be found here.
The Redskins pick range going into week 17 is basically anywhere from 3rd to 6th. If we lose to the Chargers, we maintain our #5 spot but could move as high as #3. The two teams ahead of us are Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Let's take a look at their matchup's.
Tampa Bay is playing Atlanta in week 17. The Falcons are coming off a solid victory over Buffalo. Frankly, I never counted on leapfrogging Tampa Bay because I figured they'd lose to New Orleans. But now that they've shown they're still fighting, a victory over Atlanta is entirely possible, especially considering that Atlanta has nothing to play for. We'll have to watch this one closely.
Kansas City is playing Denver, which is going to be a tough game. Denver is going into Week 17 fighting for a wildcard spot while KC has nothing to play for. Denver lost last week but played the Eagles very strong, KC hung with the Bengals before eventually losing. We can't discount the whole hatred angle, there's a lot of dislike in the Denver-Oakland-Kansas City triangle, so KC would like to ruin Denver's season, but it's not something I'm counting on happening.
Now then, let's assume that we beat San Diego, since they don't have anything to play for at this point. They already have the #2 seed sewn up and can't take home field from the Colts, so we may not see much of their starting lineup. If we were to win that game, this is who is within reach of us.
Cleveland. They're 4-11 but on a 3 game winning streak. They are playing a Jacksonville team who I believe is out of contention, but I'm not sure. Still, it's Cleveland, they haven't been that great, and a win by us combined with a loss by them costs us a spot.
Seattle, Buffalo, Oakland. All 5-10 teams, so a win by us combined with losses by them moves us into a tie. The team closest to us in terms of SOS is the Bills, not the Seahawks, and they're still 3% away, so the chance of them leapfrogging us is slim. Cleveland is really our only worry. It's worth noting however, that being tied with people messes with us in later rounds. If 3 teams are tied at 4-12, and hold draft slots 4-6, the team with the lowest SOS (us) would pick 4th overall in round 1. However, it rotates each round, meaning we'd pick 5th in round 2, 6th in round 3, then 1st again in round 4, and so on. We're concentrating so much on round 1, but being tied with teams can cost us a position or two later in the draft. We don't want tied records.
So finally, for those who haven't read the whole post, here is the Skins rooting interests for week 17.
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Kansas City over Denver
Cleveland over Jacksonville
That's it, let's see how it goes.
Kind of an FYI for those who are wondering. The Redskins currently sit in the #6 slot for each round of the upcoming draft, and we're the only team with a 4-10 record currently, so we don't need to worry about tiebreakers, etc., not this week anyway.
Now then, let me state for the record that I can't root for losses, especially against Dallas, but we have to accept the fact that we aren't favored in either of our last two games. So assuming we finish 4-12, the worst we can pick is #6. Who is ahead of us?
- St. Louis (1-13)
- Detroit (2-12)
- Tampa Bay (2-12)
- Cleveland (3-11)
- Kansas City (3-11)
We can't do worse than St. Louis, so the #1 pick is beyond our grasp. So instead, let's look at the other 4 teams and see who they're matched up against in Weeks 16 and 17. Also, for those wondering, our current strength of schedule is #16, at .492, meaning there are 15 teams who would potentially get to pick before us if we had the same records, if I have my tiebreakers right. Obviously, that will change over the next few weeks, but at the moment, that's the case. Keep in mind, all this is assuming we lose our last two games, I will adjust as necessary.
5. Kansas City: @Cincinnati, @ Denver. Current SOS = .51, #21.
This is bad for us. We need KC to win at least one game to force a tie with us in terms of record, but they're playing two solid teams. While they did manage to beat Pittsburgh (which no longer seems incredible) the Broncos have already beaten them by 31 points earlier this year. Cincy is historically bad, but appears to be a pretty solid team this year. My guess is KC finishes 3-13 and stays ahead of us. Their SOS is much better than ours, we're at .44. A tie in record at the end of the year favors us, meaning we move up a slot.
4. Cleveland: Oakland, Jacksonville. Current SOS = .51, #19
This team has potential for us. First, they have two home games, one of which is against Oakland. Also, with new Team President Mike Holmgren, Cleveland will be in the same position our players were, auditioning for jobs next year. Maybe their players will actually show up. Jacksonville is a tough game to predict...they're basically out of the playoffs but will still show up to play, and they have a solid running game. There is a good chance that Cleveland wins one game and ties with us in terms of record. Thus, we would move ahead of them based on SOS. Like KC, they are .07 behind us in terms of determining draft position.
3. Tampa Bay: @ New Orleans, Atlanta. Current SOS = .54, #27
Not even worth discussing. They won't beat NO. Though the SOS would favor us should we lose twice, they won't beat New Orleans, and Atlanta would be asking a lot as well. Forget it.
2. Detroit: @San Francisco, Chicago. Current SOS = .50, #18
This is actually a sneaky possibility. For sure, Detroit won't be favored in either game, but SF and Chicago are two teams you could actually make a case for Detroit beating. If they managed to do so, we'd move ahead of them as well, based on SOS rankings.
1. St. Louis: @ Arizona, San Francisco. Current SOS = .465, #22
It is impossible to move ahead of St. Louis.
Anyway, these are the teams you should be rooting for if you want the Skins to move up in the draft. The highest we can possibly hope for is #3, but that gives us access to an elite prospect (Suh, Okung, Berry, McCoy, etc.) that might not be there at #6. Even if we were to wind up at #4, St. Louis is probably locked into taking a QB, so 1 of those 3 would be available. So root for Kansas City, Cleveland, and Detroit especially hard over the next two weeks.
Now then, let's take a quick look at who is behind us. Assuming we were to actually win 1 of our next two games, who could catch us? Let's take a look:
7. Buffalo (5-9)
8. Seattle (5-9)
9. Chicago - belongs to Denver (5-9)
10. Oakland (5-9)
7. Buffalo: @Atlanta, Indianapolis. Current SOS = .46, #5
This is worrisome. We really need to root for Buffalo to beat a struggling Atlanta team. Their SOS is right behind ours, though adding Indy's minimum 14 wins will probably make us unreachable for them. If we win 1 game and Buffalo loses both of theirs, they will bump us down a slot.
*Edit from SoCalSkins: Based on the records of the teams the Skins and Bills are playing, it is unlikely the Bills would pass us in the draft unless we win both games and they lose both. Highly unlikely.*
8. Seattle: @ Green Bay, Tennessee. Current SOS = .47, #9
This is a tough one. Green Bay is fighting for wild card positioning. Tennessee hasn't had much to play for since week 6, but they keep on fighting. Seattle could very easily lose both games. Assuming we win 1, Seattle SOS is low enough that they might be able to overtake us, I haven't done the math yet. Let's just hope they win a game.
9. Chicago: Minnesota, @ Detroit. Current SOS = .48, #12
Tieing with Chicago could be interesting. They play Detroit, a team we are hoping to overtake. But if they lose to Detroit and Minnesota, the losses Detroit has could possibly drop them below us if we win 1 game. I have a hard time believing they beat Minnesota, especially when Minnesota is still fighting for playoff position. Someone to watch.
10. Oakland: @ Cleveland, Baltimore. Current SOS = .54, #26
This one shouldn't be an issue unless they lose twice and we win twice. Best case here is to have them lose to Cleveland but then beat Baltimore, somehow. Keep a cautious eye on this team.
So who do we root for. Well again, let me stress that I want the Skins to win, but assuming they don't, here are our rooting interests, best and worst case scenarios.
We want in week 16:
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Cleveland over Oakland
Detroit over San Francisco
Buffalo over Atlanta
Seattle over Green Bay
Chicago over Minnesota
*Bolded games are ones I think could actually happen.
We want in week 17:
Kansas City over Denver
Cleveland over Jacksonville
Detroit over Chicago
Buffalo over Indy
Seattle over Tennessee
Oakland over Baltimore
*Again, bolded games are ones I think could actually happen.
So at the moment, if everything falls our way, we could pick as high as #3, but moving up one spot to #5 is probably the best we can hope for realistically. If things do not go our way, we could drop as low as #8 based on these scenarios. I am currently not entertaining the thought of us winning both of our last two games, which could take us as low as #12 or so.