Reconcilement of the Shanahan's offenses through the numbers and outcomes

[Oldskool]

To me, one of the most exciting and highly anticipated aspects of next season is how the offenses of newly hired OC Kyle Shanahan and his father Mike will mesh and what type of balance between the two will they strike (if at all). It should be noted that Kyle runs the same version of the WCO that he was taught by his father as well as his former HC (and Shanahan OC in Denver) Gary Kubiak.

I went back through the 14 years of Mike Shanahan calling plays for the Broncos, as well as Kyle's 2 years as OC in Houston and saw some interesting patterns:

All stats courtesy of NFL.com, http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/den/ and http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/htx/

Stats are broken down by: Team, Year, Total passes, total rushes, Total offensive plays, Pass/Rush difference, % of plays that were passing and % of plays that were rushing.

Broncos   	1995	594	440	1034	154	57.45%	42.55%
Broncos   	1996	536	525	1061	11	50.52%	49.48%
Broncos   	1997	513	520	1033	-7	49.66%	50.34%
Broncos   	1998	491	525	1016	-34	48.33%	51.67%
Broncos   	1999	554	465	1019	89	54.37%	45.63%
Broncos   	2000	569	516	1085	53	52.44%	47.56%
Broncos   	2001	511	481	992	30	51.51%	48.49%
Broncos   	2002	554	457	1011	97	54.80%	45.20%
Broncos   	2003	479	543	1022	-64	46.87%	53.13%
Broncos   	2004	521	534	1055	-13	49.38%	50.62%
Broncos   	2005	465	542	1007	-77	46.18%	53.82%
Broncos   	2006	454	488	942	-34	48.20%	51.80%
Broncos   	2007	515	429	944	86	54.56%	45.44%
Broncos   	2008	620	387	1007	233	61.57%	38.43%
	
Averages	     526.86	489.43	1016.29	37.43 51.84%	48.16%
		 		 	 	 	 
Texans      	2008	555	432	987	123	56.23%	43.77%
Texans	        2009	593	425	1018	168	58.25%	41.75%
							
Averages	     574	428.5	1002.5	145.5	57.24%	42.76%

On average, in his 14 years as HC with the Broncos, the offense was fairly balanced. However looking closer at the numbers and breaking them down by the 4 starting QB's that played for Shanny in Denver shows some trends.

1995-1998 Elway 47 wins - 17 losses

Broncos   	1995	594	440	1034	154	57.45%	42.55%
Broncos   	1996	536	525	1061	11	50.52%	49.48%
Broncos   	1997	513	520	1033	-7	49.66%	50.34%
Broncos   	1998	491	525	1016	-34	48.33%	51.67%
							
		        533.5	502.5	1036	31	51.49%	48.51%

All in all a balanced offense with only 31 more passing plays executed versus running plays on average in 4 seasons. Over 4 seasons, they averaged 2nd in total yards/game, 4th in total points/game, and 30 more wins than losses.


1999-2002 Griese 34 wins 30 losses

Broncos   	1999	554	465	1019	89	54.37%	45.63%
Broncos   	2000	569	516	1085	53	52.44%	47.56%
Broncos   	2001	511	481	992	30	51.51%	48.49%
Broncos   	2002	554	457	1011	97	54.80%	45.20%
							
		        547	479.75	1026.75	67.25	53.28%	46.72%

The Griese years were a bit more of a pass first offense, having thrown on average over 67 passes than rushes.

This also partially reflects on their record IMO, as Shanahan went away from the run game and what was done best during the Elway tenure. Team averaged over 10th in yards per game and 9th in points per game.

2003-2006 Plummer 42 wins - 22 losses

Broncos   	2003	479	543	1022	-64	46.87%	53.13%
Broncos   	2004	521	534	1055	-13	49.38%	50.62%
Broncos   	2005	465	542	1007	-77	46.18%	53.82%
Broncos   	2006	454	488	942	-34	48.20%	51.80%
		       479.75	526.75	1006.5	-47	47.66%	52.34%

During the Plummer years there wasn't a single season in which there were more passes thrown than rushes. In average there were 47 less passes per year than rushes. This also equates to +20 overall wins in that time period. During which, they averaged a bit over 9th in yards/game and 10th in points/game.

Jay Cutler 2007-2008 15 wins - 17 losses

Broncos   	2007	515	429	944	86	54.56%	45.44%
Broncos   	2008	620	387	1007	233	61.57%	38.43%
		        567.5	408	975.5	159.5	58.06%	41.94%

Prior to the 2007 season, when Cutler took over as the full time QB, Shanahan had a more balanced attack and ran the ball with more consistency. Prior to Cutler's arrival, in 12 years the Broncos passed the ball 6241 times (50.83%) and ran 6036 times (49.17%).

After Cutler took over as QB, Shanahan's offensive direction changed. In his 2 years at Denver, Cutler threw the ball 1135 times (58.17%). The team in the process ran the ball only 816 times during that span (41.83%).

This with the fact that they were on average a bit over 6th in yards/game but 18th in points/game along with the 167 point differential between points allowed and points scored is what sank Shanahan in Denver. The -167 point differential was the first negative since 1999 when they had a -4 differential.

Kyle Shanahan's time in Houston shows some of the same tendencies that his father showed in Denver with Cutler at QB:

Shaub 2008 - 2009 17 wins - 15 losses

Texans	2008	555	432	987	123	56.23%	43.77%
Texans	2009	593	425	1018	168	58.25%	41.75%
							
	         574	428.5	1002.5	145.5	57.24%	42.76%

On average the Texans threw over 145 times more than they ran during Kyle's tenure as OC. Having only had a 27 point differential in points scored versus points allowed was definitely a contributing factor.

From what the stats produce, it seems that the Shanahan offense works best when the pass/run ratio is along the lines of 50/50 or so. Having had a fairly strong defense along with this was also a contributing factor for the Broncos in the mid to late 90s as well as the middle of the 2000s.

It appears that to have success, Mike and Kyle will have to tone down the passing game and go back to more of the bread and butter ZBS rushing that made the offense one of the best in years past.

[Timmy Smith]

"reconciling"

...tons of great data here - thanks.

One question: did Shanahan really do all the play-calling in Denver? I could have sworn I read an interview with him last week where he said he ceded play-calling duties after a certain point.

[stoney26]

Great thread. I think it also might mean that both coaches scheme around the players. Terrell Davis was on those Elway teams so they had to feed him the ball. Cutler and Brandon Marshall were the two best players on those teams with no real running back with the myrad of injuries they had. And Kyle had schaub and johnson so I could see why they would pass more.

Hopefully we get our running game back on track bc I just love that brand of football

[Oldskool]

Also before someone starts harping on defense being an issue, let me state again that it did have a huge factor in his exit from Denver and the Cutler area but it had much less of an effect in the past, even when the defense wasn't great.


Elway era 47 wins - 17 losses

Def rank
Points/yards

17/15
7/4
6/5
8/11

Griese era 34 wins - 30 losses
11/7
23/24
21/8
15/6

Plummer era 42 wins - 22 losses
9/4
9/4
3/15
8/14

Cutler era 15 wins - 17 losses

28/19
30/29

[SWFLSkins]

Boy Cutler was a coach killer,hmmm, good thing that Vin/Snydie trade didn't work out.

[Oldskool]

Boy Cutler was a coach killer,hmmm, good thing that Vin/Snydie trade didn't work out.

It wasn't Cutler per se that got Shanny fired in Denver. As that stats show, it was the atrocious defense coupled with Shanny going away from his bread and butter run game, thus allowing Cutler to do his best Brett Favre impersonation.

[[[ghost]]]

I went back through the 14 years of Mike Shanahan calling plays for the Broncos, as well as Kyle's 2 years as OC in Houston and saw some interesting patterns:

...

During the Plummer years there wasn't a single season in which there were more passes thrown than rushes. In average there were 47 less passes per year than rushes. This also equates to +20 overall wins in that time period. During that period, they averaged a bit over 9th in yards/game and 10th in points/game.

Amazing, amazing analysis.

My thoughts are that the Plummer years will be very similar to what we can expect if we retain Campbell. Shanahan will utilize Campbell to the best of his abilities, and Campbell's weaknesses are similar to Plummer's. Shanahan will likely attempt to disguise them like he did with Jake the Snake.

All in all, threads like these are what make the offseason tolerable. Way to go, Oldskool.

[Oldskool]

Amazing, amazing analysis.

My thoughts are that the Plummer years will be very similar to what we can expect if we retain Campbell. Shanahan will utilize Campbell to the best of his abilities, and Campbell's weaknesses are similar to Plummer's. Shanahan will likely attempt to disguise them like he did with Jake the Snake.

All in all, threads like these are what make the offseason tolerable. Way to go, Oldskool.

Thanks.

This all came to me when I was watching that clip of Billick break down Denver and the ZBS. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-networ...locking-scheme

At 1:57 he states 3 very important things that caught my attention:

This is the heart of the teams scheme
Running Backs are disciplined.
Shanahan has the will to stick with the running game / staple of offense.

After doing the number crunching I believe that the run game is going to be what solidifies and will be the basis of the offense as it was in years past under Shanahan.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Great thread here. Lots of good stuff to read

I am curious as to why Shanahan was passing more with Cutler.

Was the factor of the defense not being up to snuff, and thusly having to pass more to catch up a factor?

The o-line aging a bit and unable to run as much?

I am just wondering if there is another factor involved in going away from a balanced offense to what appears to be an Andy Reid O

[Oldskool]

Great thread here. Lots of good stuff to read

I am curious as to why Shanahan was passing more with Cutler.

Was the factor of the defense not being up to snuff, and thusly having to pass more to catch up a factor?

The o-line aging a bit and unable to run as much?

I am just wondering if there is another factor involved in going away from a balanced offense to what appears to be an Andy Reid O

My first thought was that his defense had got to a point that his defense couldn't be counted on and that he needed to outscore his opponents ala the 1999 Rams.

Another thought of mine was that he was so enamored with Cutler's arm and with Marshall's ability that he changed the offense to suit them. Mind you this is just my theory, but I think that after giving Cutler the reigns of a 7-4 team in 2006 after benching Plummer and having spent a 1st round pick for the first time on a QB, that he wanted to get his monies worth.

I don't think that the OL had much to do with it. Although he had some vet starters that were long in the tooth, such as Nalen, and Hamilton, the majority of his 2007-2008 OL was on the young side. One thing Shanny did was keep a nice and deep OL chart.

[robotfire]

Also before someone starts harping on defense being an issue, let me state again that it did have a huge factor in his exit from Denver and the Cutler area but it had much less of an effect in the past, even when the defense wasn't great.

I read an article after Mike Shanahan was fired. The article said that the owner asked Shanahan to fire his defensive coordinator. Mike stood by his guy and refused, so the owner fired Mike. The article I read (and it's late, so I don't feel like googling it...do it yourself, people) said that it was very difficult for the owner to let him go and that it was almost entirely done because Shanahan stuck by his defensive coordinator.

[Oldskool]

I read an article after Mike Shanahan was fired. The article said that the owner asked Shanahan to fire his defensive coordinator. Mike stood by his guy and refused, so the owner fired Mike. The article I read (and it's late, so I don't feel like googling it...do it yourself, people) said that it was very difficult for the owner to let him go and that it was almost entirely done because Shanahan stuck by his defensive coordinator.

Correct. That DC's name is Slowik and he's part of our coaching staff now. He became the DC in 2008 after Jim Bates left and could not have done a worse job. For some reason Shanny didn't want to can him. For the life of me I can't figure it out.

[Bronco Chris]

I don't know the deal with Slowik, but I do a bit about the Broncos offense in 07-08. Those pass/run numbers are skewed in 08 quite a bit because the broncs had 6 RBs injured. Mike even commented after a game that he was that he was throwing the ball more than he wanted. Running the 3-4 seems to improved Denver's D this year, however, if Denver was on the field more in 08 it would have improved the stats for the D quite a bit. Bear in mind that there were games at the end of 08 when Denver literally had no RB. Guys from the practice squad were on the IR and Denver was pulling guys out of WalMart to run the ball.

The 07 stats can't be trusted because it was a transition year for Cutler. Mike loves the vertical passing game. Look for him to stay with Campbell until he seeks out the young QB of the future. Bear in mind that Cutler had no discipline problems in Denver until Mike left. Shanny has the amazing ability to work with many different personalities and help them work together. McDaniels touts this "team" mentality in Denver now - making it sound as if it's a new concept for the Broncos. In reality, Shanny was always a team first guy - he just knows how to give direction to the really talented players.

The Redskins and their fans have every reason to be excited. That run/pass ratio statistic from Denver's SB years is fantastic stuff.

[MartinC]

[QUOTE=Bronco Chris;7236253]I don't know the deal with Slowik
QUOTE]

I would not sweat that. He will be coaching the DBs here not the whole defense and by reputation he is a good secondary coach.

If he and Haslett combined can just get our corners to play tight coverage when we blitz and on 3rd and medium rather than giving a 10 yard cushion I will be pleased.

[Oldskool]

I don't know the deal with Slowik, but I do a bit about the Broncos offense in 07-08. Those pass/run numbers are skewed in 08 quite a bit because the broncs had 6 RBs injured. Mike even commented after a game that he was that he was throwing the ball more than he wanted. Running the 3-4 seems to improved Denver's D this year, however, if Denver was on the field more in 08 it would have improved the stats for the D quite a bit. Bear in mind that there were games at the end of 08 when Denver literally had no RB. Guys from the practice squad were on the IR and Denver was pulling guys out of WalMart to run the ball.

The 07 stats can't be trusted because it was a transition year for Cutler. Mike loves the vertical passing game. Look for him to stay with Campbell until he seeks out the young QB of the future. Bear in mind that Cutler had no discipline problems in Denver until Mike left. Shanny has the amazing ability to work with many different personalities and help them work together. McDaniels touts this "team" mentality in Denver now - making it sound as if it's a new concept for the Broncos. In reality, Shanny was always a team first guy - he just knows how to give direction to the really talented players.

The Redskins and their fans have every reason to be excited. That run/pass ratio statistic from Denver's SB years is fantastic stuff.

Thanks Bronco Chris for the information on the 07-08 season. I completely forgot that the Broncos had those RB injuries and were using Hillis and Young as their RB's.

So in light of this, the issue of how different the offenses of Kyle versus Mike come to light: Kyle runs much more of a pass heavy version of his fathers offense. This will be interesting to see how it unfolds.