2011 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database

[StillUnknown]

sucks for them, but potentially beneficial for us

[Dro89]

schadjoe UNCs Greg Little, Robert Quinn ruled permanantly ineligible by NCAA

Should effect his stock much like Dez Bryant, dropping him into a range where we might be able to grab him.

Being a avid UNC fan this is bad news.. BUT being a life long skins fan this is GREAT news.. Quinn is back in my sights once more

[skinsfan190]

Being a avid UNC fan this is bad news.. BUT being a life long skins fan this is GREAT news.. Quinn is back in my sights once more

No doubt Quinn is a beast. Him and Orakpo would be unbelievable. I still think ultimately he'll be a top 5 pick, top 10 at worst.

[Kostaskins]

Him being out a year will make his stock slide. Also keep in mind other teams will fill in more imortant needs rather than there bpa.
Well have to wait really. And also factor in other players raising up the charts and of course senior bowl along with other big games n bowl games

[stevemcqueen1]

No doubt Quinn is a beast. Him and Orakpo would be unbelievable. I still think ultimately he'll be a top 5 pick, top 10 at worst.

I think you are just being defensively pessimistic. I doubt Quinn has any realistic shot at all of being taken in the top 10 now, much less the top 5:

- Andrew Luck
- Jake Locker
- Adrian Clayborn
- Prince Amukamara
- Mark Ingram
- Patrick Peterson
- A.J. Green
- Michael Floyd
- Julio Jones
- Janoris Jenkins
- Aaron Williams
- Marcell Dareus
- Christian Ballard
- Derek Sherrod
- Tyron Smith
- Brandon Harris
- Kyle Rudolph

All of those are guys who probably have better draft stock than Quinn does right now based on the fact they've been brilliant this season.

Also Akeem Ayers and Jeremy Beal are guys projected at Quinn's position who have helped themselves tremendously this year because of their brilliant play. They've close the gap on Quinn, and for some scouts they will have passed him.

I think Quinn will drop to us, even if we win 9 games or so and pick in the late teens or twenties.

The question is, if you draft Quinn, what do you do with Lorenzo? He's been excellent so far and he deserves to keep his job. Quinn would almost definitely be an upgrade, but if we want to keep our playmakers on the field, we'll have to consider changing our packages a bit to include Lorenzo. If we drafted Quinn, how about moving Lorenzo inside? It could be situational or permanent depending on how our personnel shakes out for the season.

[ConnSKINS26]

Julio Jones' hand is broken, he'll be out for a few weeks while he gets surgery that could include screw(s?) in his hand. Don't know which hand.

Could this drop his stock enough to make him available in the second round? Or just later in the first, as long as he gets back in a while and plays well again?



Also, for everyone in this thread:

How would you compare Julio Jones, AJ Green, Floyd and Baldwin to the best WR's taken the last couple of drafts, Crabtree and Dez Bryant?

And how do they compare to guys like Fitz, Megatron, Andre Johnson, etc. when they were rookie prospects?

Basically, do any of them, in your opinions, have the chance to come in and be dominating forces in the league, AKA the best at their position, physical specimens, etc., or are they just the best guys this year, and possibly for the last couple years?

[Kostaskins]

when i saw baldwin on tv i think a thursday night game the guy just didnt have heart and well was ok. jones from watching him is ok more of a possession receiver. the one guy who is a beast is aj green! wow hes special! floyd not sure about him but hes not gonna be a 1st round pic.

akeem ayers is a beast but i think we should focus on our nt, de, c in the draft.

[ConnSKINS26]

when i saw baldwin on tv i think a thursday night game the guy just didnt have heart and well was ok. jones from watching him is ok more of a possession receiver. the one guy who is a beast is aj green! wow hes special! floyd not sure about him but hes not gonna be a 1st round pic.

akeem ayers is a beast but i think we should focus on our nt, de, c in the draft.

Interesting.

I'd still love to see guys like steve, Tris, and D&S address my original post, but this is a good place to start with another POV!

Why exactly was Baldwin just okay?

Why is Julio Jones more of a possession receiver, not great speed? Its my understanding that this is a great WR class, but none of the top guys have top-end elite speed.

Why is AJ Green head and shoulders a beast above the others? Specifics would be appreciated, I don't get to watch much college football.

[stevemcqueen1]

Julio Jones' hand is broken, he'll be out for a few weeks while he gets surgery that could include screw(s?) in his hand. Don't know which hand.

Could this drop his stock enough to make him available in the second round? Or just later in the first, as long as he gets back in a while and plays well again?

Oh my God! What a brilliant weekend to be a Redskins fan! I hate to celebrate a player's injury, but I do so only because I think he's a great prospect. If Jones misses a significant amount of time from this injury, I think there is a very real possibility he could drop into the second round. We need to remember that this is an extremely strong class and that it could take very little for a brilliant prospect to free-fall. Even if we're picking fairly late, it shouldn't be that hard to buy low on good prospects.

Jones hasn't been mindblowingly productive at Alabama and has had concentration lapses that would have dropped him a bit in the class anyway. I don't think an injury where he only missed a month or so will entirely sink him, but it's another blemish, particularly if he comes back slow from it. Arrelious Benn was considered a very high draft pick going into last season but fell to 39 after he started off the year quite slow. IMO Jones is a much better prospect than Benn was, but this is a better class than last year's. If Jones slipped into the second, I would trade quite a bit to move up from where we'll pick and take him.

As each week passes, we're coming closer to a dream scenario of taking Robert Quinn in the first and Jones in the second. We could cap that off by dealing veterans to move into the third round and take Rodney Hudson. Marvin Austin in the fifth? That's not as crazy as it sounds. Mike Williams was a legit first round talent who fell into the fourth round for leaving his football team midseason, and the case surrounding him was less sordid than it was for Austin.

Also, for everyone in this thread:

How would you compare Julio Jones, AJ Green, Floyd and Baldwin to the best WR's taken the last couple of drafts, Crabtree and Dez Bryant?

And how do they compare to guys like Fitz, Megatron, Andre Johnson, etc. when they were rookie prospects?

Basically, do any of them, in your opinions, have the chance to come in and be dominating forces in the league, AKA the best at their position, physical specimens, etc., or are they just the best guys this year, and possibly for the last couple years?

I think A.J. Green and Jones are extremely rare athletes. Floyd and Baldwin are good athletes, but neither are as special as Jones and Green. Those two are 6'4 receivers who will probably run in the 4.4 range. Both are a threat to score every catch, and both create huge mismatches no matter where they attack a defense. Plus they've each got elite leaping ability and body control and Green's hands are as spectacular as it gets. I think both he and Jones have the potential to be excellent #1 type receivers, and I think the same is true for Floyd.

The issue I have with Floyd is that he's a bit high cut for the position which I suspect limits his speed out of his breaks because long legged players have a harder time gathering themselves when they change directions. Still, Floyd looks surprisingly good working underneath and he's got nice body control and hands, and he's a very strong player, if not as tight skinned as the other big receivers. But he lacks the elite top gear that Jones and Green have, so I don't think he'll be the same kind of deep threat in the NFL that he is in college.

Baldwin is also a bit leggy in comparison to Jones and Green, and I've not been super impressed with his mental aspect of the game. He looks very strong in traffic and he's got a king sized frame, plus his long speed is very good for a player his size, making him a legitimate deep threat in the NFL. But he doesn't have the well rounded skill set that I think the first three receivers in the class have.

Having watched each of them quite a bit more this season, these are the NFL players I would compare them to:

A.J. Green - Larry Fitzgerald. This is an easy comparison, although Green will run a faster 40. I thought Reggie Wayne at first, but Green is a lot longer and more naturally gifted than Wayne was.

Julio Jones - Terrell Owens, another fairly easy comparison. I would have said Brandon Marshall, but Jones is considerably more explosive even though he's similarly strong. Some will compare him to Michael Irvin. I think he's much quicker than Irvin was.

Michael Floyd - Hakeem Nicks. Similar talent and questions about deep speed. I also see some Koren Robinson to Floyd's game, particularly in his level of strength and in the way he runs after the catch. Those don't sound like flattering comparisons but they are. Robinson was a great prospect before substance abuse problems ruined his career. Nicks also looks like a keeper. Nicks, Dez Bryant, whoever you want, they each have a similar skill set to Floyd.

Jon Baldwin - Vincent Jackson. The similarities in their game are remarkable. I think this is the surest comparison out of all the ones I made. Jackson wasn't heralded coming out of college because he went to Northern Colorado, but he was still taken in the second round. Baldwin is more visible at Pitt, and I think he'll go in a similar range, if not earlier. Their frames are almost identical. They've got similar long speed and leaping ability, similar strength and concentration going over the middle of the field. They each adjust to the ball very well in flight and have sticky hands (if not quite elite) to make catches off their frame. They both are significant deep threats although neither are elite in creating after the catch. Both give only so-so effort as blockers and play with a hot and cold motor. Both are leggy athletes that have to gather themselves out of their breaks. Baldwin is Jackson 2.0 as a player.

[The Tris]

Moving Lorenzo inside would only increase his coverage responsibilities, which despite yesterday, is an area of concern IMO. Quinn would absolutely be an upgrade on the outside though, and if he slips will represent a great value at a position of need.

That being said, a legit 5-tech would also be a massive upgrade, where our rotation is replacement level players at best. I think an arguement can be made that Draft Pick/Lorenzo represents a greater net talent gain at DE/OLB than Golston/Draft Pick.

Regardless, I think we can't go wrong upgrading either position, and the mistake would be poor scouting, not poor choice of position. A true BPA pick IMO.




As far as the WRs, first I think you have to rate who was the best of the current elite group coming out as a prospect.

Based on pre-draft profiles, I would rack the current elite WRs as PROSPECTS like below:

Calvin Johnson (flawless prospect)
Larry Fitzgerald (speed questioned)
Andre Johnson (was inconsistent in college)
Michael Crabtree (foot injury, system player)
Dez Bryant (maturity, work ethic)


Calvin Johnson was one of the highest rated prospects I can remember. I would say AJ Green compares very favorably to him.

[ConnSKINS26]

Thanks guys, this is exactly the reason why I hang around in this thread, mostly reading. Excellent info and opinions. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that a couple of you guys give more than just opinions...very reliable info, it seems. And Steve, I love your draft blog, I've got it bookmarked.

I'm gonna spend some time looking at highlights of all of these WR's and reading more about them before I really comment, but I do have another question:

Do you think that any of the guys coming out this year are BETTER prospects than the others mentioned? As rookie prospects, mind you, not keeping in mind what they've done since.

Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Fitz, Dez, Crabtree, anyone else you want who were the "best" WR's in their class. Are Green, Floyd, Baldwin, and Jones better prospects than any of these guys, rather than just comparable?

Thanks again for responding so well to questions from us less knowledgeable fans, guys. Its incredibly insightful and interesting, and I appreciate you imparting your knowledge.

Easily one of my favorite threads, during the season AND off-season.

[skinsfan190]

I think you are just being defensively pessimistic. I doubt Quinn has any realistic shot at all of being taken in the top 10 now, much less the top 5:

- Andrew Luck
- Jake Locker
- Adrian Clayborn
- Prince Amukamara
- Mark Ingram
- Patrick Peterson
- A.J. Green
- Michael Floyd
- Julio Jones
- Janoris Jenkins
- Aaron Williams
- Marcell Dareus
- Christian Ballard
- Derek Sherrod
- Tyron Smith
- Brandon Harris
- Kyle Rudolph

All of those are guys who probably have better draft stock than Quinn does right now based on the fact they've been brilliant this season.

Also Akeem Ayers and Jeremy Beal are guys projected at Quinn's position who have helped themselves tremendously this year because of their brilliant play. They've close the gap on Quinn, and for some scouts they will have passed him.

I think Quinn will drop to us, even if we win 9 games or so and pick in the late teens or twenties.

The question is, if you draft Quinn, what do you do with Lorenzo? He's been excellent so far and he deserves to keep his job. Quinn would almost definitely be an upgrade, but if we want to keep our playmakers on the field, we'll have to consider changing our packages a bit to include Lorenzo. If we drafted Quinn, how about moving Lorenzo inside? It could be situational or permanent depending on how our personnel shakes out for the season.

U make some good points. I def think Marvin Austin draft stock will be effected but I think Quinn will remain a top prospect. He's a great athlete and he was very productive. In addition IDK Character will be a concern for him. Although he got caught up in this mess I think he'll be fine. Plus most scouts had him as a top 3 prospect before the season. As long as he doesn't get lazy he'll be fine

[stevemcqueen1]

Moving Lorenzo inside would only increase his coverage responsibilities, which despite yesterday, is an area of concern IMO. Quinn would absolutely be an upgrade on the outside though, and if he slips will represent a great value at a position of need.

That being said, a legit 5-tech would also be a massive upgrade, where our rotation is replacement level players at best. I think an arguement can be made that Draft Pick/Lorenzo represents a greater net talent gain at DE/OLB than Golston/Draft Pick.

Regardless, I think we can't go wrong upgrading either position, and the mistake would be poor scouting, not poor choice of position. A true BPA pick IMO.

Yeah, in the end, you have to remember not to get too cute with trying to gauge net value you just gave an example of. It's hard enough just to get the picks right in the first place. First and foremost, go with the best bet, particularly when all your defensive needs are as pronounced as ours are. Need must always be secondary in consideration to talent or else you're likely to end up with a roster full of busts or mediocre players at every position. I love Quinn as a prospect and put him on similar footing with Marcell Dareus and Julio Jones. But if Dareus is already gone and I think Jones might drop a bit, I'll take Quinn. He was my favorite prospect going into the season, and I don't think the ban or the emergence of Lorenzo really changes that for me.

As far as the WRs, first I think you have to rate who was the best of the current elite group coming out as a prospect.

Based on pre-draft profiles, I would rack the current elite WRs as PROSPECTS like below:

Calvin Johnson (flawless prospect)
Larry Fitzgerald (speed questioned)
Andre Johnson (was inconsistent in college)
Michael Crabtree (foot injury, system player)
Dez Bryant (maturity, work ethic)


Calvin Johnson was one of the highest rated prospects I can remember. I would say AJ Green compares very favorably to him.

I think you've got your analysis dead on, particularly on Johnson, Johnson, and Fitzgerald. I think you can add a couple other concerns to Crabtree's and Bryant's resume that made them drop farther than those other guys did. Bryant's long speed was also questioned and I don't think he was considered to have an elite top speed. Ditto for Crabtree, who never ended up running a 40. He was also a bit of leggy player who took a while to gear up and down, and he never really learned to run pro-style routes in college. Also, I remember having concerns about his maturity level and he was perceived as a diva. His televised reaction to the Raiders picking Darius Heyward-Bey spoke volumes to me. It made him look unprofessional and clownish. I remember thinking that I didn't want us to select either him or Percy Harvin that year, and that I'd have rather taken a risk on Andre Smith as a character concern, who struck me as more oblivious than arrogant and troubled. It also didn't help that Crabtree measured considerably shorter than the height he was listed at by Texas Tech. Just a litany of negatives cropped up with him right before the draft that frightened people off.

Still, Crabtree was almost universally considered the best prospect in that class, much like Calvin Johson was in '07. He had elite hands, body control, and ability to run after the catch. He was a strong player who didn't struggle at all to beat press coverage and was great at using his frame to seal defenders from the ball. Whatever his character issues might have been off the field, on the field he was an unselfish teammate who kept to himself and was a pretty good blocker for a college player.

[The Tris]

Why is AJ Green head and shoulders a beast above the others? Specifics would be appreciated, I don't get to watch much college football.

Edited 10/20/10 for OP Profile

AJ Green, WR Georgia
Junior, 6'4", 210 lbs


I don't want to get hyperbolic, but AJ Green is the perfect WR. At 6-4, he moves like he is 5-10. Smooth and explosive are the two words that come to mind. As a true freshman, he caught 56 balls for 963 yards and 8 TDs. With a huge drop off in skill at the QB position his sophmore year, he caught 53 for 808 and 6 TDs, in nine games, which to me, is more impressive than his freshman year, considering defenses were doubling him the whole season as UGA lost Moreno, Stafford and Massoquai (sp). He was basically their sole offensive weapon last season.

He is clearly he top non-QB offensive prospect in this class, and compares favorably to some of the top WRs drafted the past couple of years. He should grade out close to Calvin Johnson, but who he really reminds me of is Randy Moss - explosive, lean, long, terrific hands. If you are looking for a flaw, he does have a slender frame, and has had several minor dings throughout his college career, including hip flexor his freshman year, and minor shoulder and hamstring injuries his sophmore year.

Also, his 4 game suspension is obviously something that will come up, though it should not be of real concern moving forward. The quick overview of it is as follows: during the John Blake/Gary Wichard scandal that destroyed UNC's team, TMZ reported on a rumor that Green attended the infamous party in Miami, an accusation that ultimately was proven completely false. Nevertheless, the NCAA investogators, convince of Green's guilt of something, scoured over his personal financial statement going back to 2008. Noticing a $1,000 deposit in early 2010, they approached Green and he admitted to selling a jersey for that sum in order to pay for a Spring Break trip this year. He was then suspended for 4 games, 2 games more than Marcel Dareus, who admitted to attending the Miami party and recieving what amounted to $1,700 in gifts and benefits. By all accounts, Green is an upstanding young man who made the mistake of selling NCAA liscensed merchandise - a capital offense for a college athlete.

In his first game back from suspension against Colorado, he played out of his mind. Below is the video. I love the 40 yard end around, as he turns the corner and glides (not runs) up the sideline, then carries a DB seven extra yards. Then lets follow that up with a SICK one handed grap that rivals Charles Rogers catch in 2002 (which I think is one of the greatest catches in cfb). Otherworldly body control. His next TD is pure speed, blowing by the defender. Speed, Power, Hands, Precise Route Running...a complete WR.

[YOUTUBE]CY_gXCJ2B_A[/YOUTUBE]

Here is Wes Bunting briefly on him:

What else can be said about Georgia wideout A.J. Green? At 6-4, 205 pounds, the guy is so fluid and balanced as a receiver, consistently gaining initial separation out of his breaks with the burst and speed to routinely be a threat down the field. However, what’s even more impressive is his overall body control and coordination to go up and make a play on the throw. His concentration level is unmatched when you watch him, as his eyes instantly go to the football and don’t come off until he secures the grab. There really isn’t much this guy can’t do and has the makings of being one of the higher graded out prospects to come along over the past couple drafts.

Like he says, what else can be said that already hasn't been said.

2008 Highlights:
[YOUTUBE]dF515bWfv9Y[/YOUTUBE]

2009 Highlight:
[YOUTUBE]EglUFT1OwKo[/YOUTUBE]

One last note, you saw some LSU in those videos...well in two games against Patrick Peterson, Green has 8 catches for 188 yards and 2 TDs. What else can you say?

As Green compares to the other top WRs in this class, he is clearly the most complete player. He displays more consistancy and better hands than Julio Jones, while producing more against better competition that Baldwin or Floyd. He has rarely had a "bad" game. He's not as solid a blocker as Jones, but isn't afraid to get dirty either, and is capable. His athleticism is abundantly clear, and even more so emphasized by his block of an ASU FG in a critical possession in 2009.

For us, he would certainly be the best option this year for solving our WR needs long term via the draft. However, a prospect of this calibur likely won't fall out of the top 10, and depending on the teams drafting, very likely is a top 5 pick. It seems unlikely we would be in a position to draft him without a draft day trade.

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't think any receiver compares well to Calvin Johnson as a prospect. He was one of a kind, and we probably won't see another college player like him for a long time.

I think Green compares well to Fitzgerald as a college player and prospect. He's not as productive or as big as Fitzgerald was, but the Big East from that era was nowhere near as good as the SEC is right now even though he still had to play big games against VT and Miami. And Green will balance out the scales in a comparison between him and Fitzgerald because he'll probably run a much faster 40 yard dash than Fitzgerald did (4.63). Green will add weight in the NFL and become a stronger player. The core skillset compares well to the college Fitzgerald.

Jones' resume certainly isn't as strong as Fitzgerald's, and probably not as strong as Andre Johnson's. It's probably not even as good as Braylon Edwards' was but I think he's a significantly smarter and more mature player than Edwards was. Jones had a great freshman season, but he simply hasn't lived up to his expectations from a production standpoint, and he's demonstrated a tendency to lose concentration and allow himself to be taken out of games all throughout his career. Still, I think he's a much better prospect than Dez Bryant was, and I even like him better than I liked Crabtree. Crabtree's personality rubbed me the wrong way, whereas Jones is a very smart, hardworking, and savvy player. Athletically, Jones is in the same class as Andre Johnson, and he's probably the best athlete of the bunch this year. He's a 6'4", 215 pound player with 4.4 speed and great quicks and CoD. He could return punts for us. That's why I think he's a top 5 talent. But his consistency issues, lack of collegiate production, and this injury will drop him. I think he could be immensely successful for us though, and fulfill an Andre Johnson type role in our offense. Maybe it's a pipe dream for him to fall into the second round.

Floyd shares a similar draft value with Dez Bryant because they have such similar talents. Bryant was a little better of an athlete, but Floyd doesn't have the same maturity concerns, that I'm aware of. I wouldn't say Baldwin compares favorably to any of the receivers you mentioned. He's certainly a good prospect, but not as good as those superlative prospects you mentioned. At this stage, he's got a lot of work to do to become a well rounded NFL receiver. Right now, it looks like his role will be somewhat confined to being a deep threat in an offense, and that's probably how he'll make an early impact.