The Official Washington Wizards Thread

[stevemcqueen1]

I also think people are sleeping on James McAdoo a bit. Terrific athlete, good size, good skill level, great BBall IQ. He offers a nice compromise between the strengths and weaknesses of the other three great PFs in the class.

Like TRob's motor and athleticism but don't like his BBall IQ and level of finesse? McAdoo is a good compromise. Like Davis's offensive game and athleticism but don't like his body type? McAdoo is a good compromise. Like Sully's IQ and finishing skill around the basket but don't like his level of athleticism? Again, McAdoo is a good compromise.

He doesn't do any one thing as great as the top three PFs in the class, but he does all of the things better than any of them. If we miss out on the top three guys at the position, McAdoo is our best remaining option--if he declares.

[StillUnknown]

I also think people are sleeping on James McAdoo a bit. Terrific athlete, good size, good skill level, great BBall IQ. He offers a nice compromise between the strengths and weaknesses of the other three great PFs in the class.

Like TRob's motor and athleticism but don't like his BBall IQ and level of finesse? McAdoo is a good compromise. Like Davis's offensive game and athleticism but don't like his body type? McAdoo is a good compromise. Like Sully's IQ and finishing skill around the basket but don't like his level of athleticism? Again, McAdoo is a good compromise.

He doesn't do any one thing as great as the top three PFs in the class, but he does all of the things better than any of them. If we miss out on the top three guys at the position, McAdoo is our best remaining option--if he declares.

In my opinion, McAdoo is UNC's best pro prospect.

The only issue with McAdoo is that I don't see him contributing in a meaningful way year 1. Going into year 3 of the John Wall project, I think Ted is going to want to see noticeable bump up in wins. I love McAdoo's game and wouldn't necessarily be mad if we drafted him, but I think we'll go with someone who offers a more immediate pick me up.

[Fight4RGIII]

We need to draft production over potential imo.

[nuposse87]

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/arnett-moultrie

I'm surprised this guys name hasn't been tossed around some. If we can acquire a mid to late 1st round pic you absolutely take him so long as we filled the SF problem with the top 5 pic.

[stevemcqueen1]

We need to draft production over potential imo.

In my opinion, McAdoo is UNC's best pro prospect.

The only issue with McAdoo is that I don't see him contributing in a meaningful way year 1. Going into year 3 of the John Wall project, I think Ted is going to want to see noticeable bump up in wins. I love McAdoo's game and wouldn't necessarily be mad if we drafted him, but I think we'll go with someone who offers a more immediate pick me up.

I think all of the top guys except for Sullinger and maybe Rivers are more potential over production types.

-- Davis is going to need time to fill out, which could take years. He's 20+ pounds lighter than Vesely. He's going to be a limited player until he gains bulk, and you can't really expect him to reach his form for several seasons because of his body.
-- MKG needs time to develop as a shooter and add a mid range game to his offensive repertoire. He's got minimal skills as a shooter right now. If you're drafting him and expecting him to start and make an impact year one, it's in his slashing game, his defense, and his rebounding. But again, I think it's a couple of years before he unlocks his offensive potential.
-- Ditto for TRob in many ways. Ball handling, shooting, and powering through double teams are all skills he needs some serious development in and it's going to take time for him to master these skills. He is also going to take time to develop as a defender. If he makes an impact as a rookie, it'll be as a rebounder and finisher off assisted buckets IMO.
-- Barnes needs time to develop as a ball handler. He's NBA ready as a spot shooter and should play solid defense early, but his ball handling is so lacking at this point. For him to get to that 18-20 PPG range, he needs time to work on attacking and finishing with both hands, and even still, I don't know if this will ever be a big part of his game.
-- Ditto for Beal. He lacks the skill to create his own offense right now, and is going to be limited to a role of spot up shooting--curling off screens, transition outlet, etc. during his rookie season. I don't see him being a high scoring part of our offense from the get go. And I'm not sure he'll ever be a great ball handler. That seems like one of those traits that wings either have or they don't.

And Sully is a true big, and all bigs take time to adjust to the NBA game to some extent. He'll certainly have to adjust to NBA length.

Rivers has an NBA ready offensive game but he's skinny and probably needs time to physically develop. He's nowhere near as strong as his father was as a player.

I think McAdoo can offer value as a rookie, mostly as a rebounder and catch and shoot outlet that can also drive to the basket and finish around the rim.

I don't think any rookie we add is going to be the source of a big bump in wins. We're going to have to rely on improvement from our returning players for that to happen.

I also think, if given the choice, we should take the guy who offers the biggest long term impact, for example, Davis and MKG over Sully and Rivers. We can't completely bank on building around John Wall because thus far, he has not shown the ability to carry a team on his own. He's too limited as a scorer and not a good enough defender to do it right now. It might be the case that Wall never becomes an All Star or franchise player. If you think you've got a star PF down the line out of someone like McAdoo, go ahead and take him over the more immediate impact, lower upside guy. In three years we might have to build around the Anthony Davis or James McAdoo era.

I don't think it will come to that personally, but I'm not a fan of taking the short term approach in the draft at all, and that's why.

The obvious exception is Drummond. He's surely the highest upside player in the class, but he's also the one I'm almost sure will never reach his potential. You can't develop heart. I think he'd be a step in the wrong direction.

[Forehead]

I've been reading over the last three pages (40 posts per) and wanted to get some clarification since I'm by no means as big a basketball guy as most of you. Is it generally agreed that the drop-off in prospects this year occurs after the Top 4 or 5? I'm just curious how badly the Wizards need to finish to be guaranteed a highly useful player even if the draft lottery screws us over.

Also, since the Wizards didn't use their amnesty last season, can they still do so next season? Would it be better to amnesty Blatche since we're on the hook for him for the next 3-4 years and, since Lewis will be in the last year of his deal, keep him and dangle his expiring contract as trade bait for a team that wants to clear space?

[stevemcqueen1]

The thing I like about McAdoo, and the reason why I think he'll be able to score as a rookie, is he's a really good ball handler, especially for a PF, and is fantastic in transition. He'd be our best running mate for Wall in transition and projects as an elite outlet down the road. He just gets it. In the half court he can stand in the corner, take a pass and attack the rim, plus he's already a fairly good shooter. The post game isn't as good as Sully's but it's better than Davis's by a sound margin. You get the sense from watching him that he'll be a quality scoring option running ISO low block post ups down the road. And the basketball IQ is tremendous. He's one of the smartest players in the class.

I'd be thrilled with a class where we get two lotto picks and get Rivers and McAdoo. If we get the third pick, I'd even consider moving down a bit for McAdoo instead of taking TRob in order to get the ammunition to add Rivers.

We'd get an immediate bump in scoring without sacrificing long term potential. Rivers looks like a legit 20 PPG guy down the road, and might even approach that number as a rookie.

---------- Post added April-2nd-2012 at 01:47 PM ----------

I've been reading over the last three pages (40 posts per) and wanted to get some clarification since I'm by no means as big a basketball guy as most of you. Is it generally agreed that the drop-off in prospects this year occurs after the Top 4 or 5? I'm just curious how badly the Wizards need to finish to be guaranteed a highly useful player even if the draft lottery screws us over.

Also, since the Wizards didn't use their amnesty last season, can they still do so next season? Would it be better to amnesty Blatche since we're on the hook for him for the next 3-4 years and, since Lewis will be in the last year of his deal, keep him and dangle his expiring contract as trade bait for a team that wants to clear space?

I think there is a big dropoff in quality after the first pick, and a bigger dropoff after the second. To me, Davis and MKG are the clear cut best prospects in the class, and the two I'd bet on becoming All Stars/foundational pieces for championship contenders.

Picks 3-8 seem fairly even in quality to me. I don't think there is a huge difference between TRob and Sully and McAdoo (who is still 50-50 on going back), and I don't think there is a huge difference in quality between Rivers, Beal, and Barnes.

Blatche will probably be amnestied. His contract still feels small to use the clause on, but it'll be nice to finally be rid of him and we don't have anyone better to amnesty.

Rashard has a buyout clause for next season in his contract. We can try and trade his expiring contract but that usually brings a bad contract in return. Or we can just buy him out, and if I'm not mistaken, he'd be off the roster next season.

[Destino]

The NBA draft is not about production it is about potential. This is why I've been saying all year that if the plan is to draft our way to success then the timeline for that plan 2015 as of today assuming there isn't another Vesely style set back. If the Wizards want to be good or better in 2013 and 2014 that will come from development of current players, trades, and FA acquisitions. You can't go into an NBA draft looking for instant production. If you're drafting bigs that timeline can be extended even further as they take even longer to generate results typically.

That is not to say we shouldn't look to draft guys we think can be primary scoring options. That is certainly what we need because IMO this team lacks exactly that. We have great hustle and effort guys like Booker, Seraphin, Mason, and Vesely that can give you some points with some assistance. We have no one that can take over a game on offense.

Next years outcome will be largely dependent on Wall improving his game. People like to say he needs a better team around him and I agree, but I wonder if he'd continue to be the best player in such a scenario. I'm not sure I'd say he's better than Nene right now to be honest. He has a ton of potential but in year three for a point guard the potential argument goes out the window. It's show me time for Wall next season because what he's done this year is nice but it's better suited for a Rondo role, supporting other star players, than it is for what Wizards fans hope he'll become.

[Fight4RGIII]

They all have potential but some can produce right away, some can't. Like Drummond, Henson, Leonard and McAdoo imo. Davis/MKG/Robinson/Beal can all produce right away. Just pray we get a top 4 pick. We should get productive scoring right away from our top pick. Hopefully some outside shooters somewhere along the way. If so,Wall's assists can probably get up to 10 pg.

[stevemcqueen1]

They all have potential but some can produce right away, some can't. Like Drummond, Henson, Leonard and McAdoo imo. Davis/MKG/Robinson/Beal can all produce right away. Just pray we get a top 4 pick. We should get productive scoring right away from our top pick. Hopefully some outside shooters somewhere along the way. If so,Wall's assists can probably get up to 10 pg.

Produce in what way though?

I don't see Davis's or Robinson's potential to produce on the offensive end initially being any better than McAdoo's. He has as many, if not more offensive skills as they do. MKG and Beal both have big holes in their offensive game too that are going to take time to fill in. Beal's shooting should translate fairly early but it's worth noting that Beal has not shot well from 3 point range in college this year, and it's not like he's going to be better spot shooter than even a pedestrian guy like Roger Mason right out of the gate. MKG will get his points if he gets high usage because he finds the rim, but opponents will force him to shoot from mid range early and that's not his game right now.

You can't really put too much stock in your ability to predict how a player is going to score and defend as a rookie, and it's not even that important in the grand scheme of things anyway because you're looking much farther down the line. Hell, for all we know the light bulb comes on for Drummond next season and he starts shoving fools around and looks like Amare Stoudemire Jr.

---------- Post added April-2nd-2012 at 02:43 PM ----------

The NBA draft is not about production it is about potential. This is why I've been saying all year that if the plan is to draft our way to success then the timeline for that plan 2015 as of today assuming there isn't another Vesely style set back. If the Wizards want to be good or better in 2013 and 2014 that will come from development of current players, trades, and FA acquisitions. You can't go into an NBA draft looking for instant production. If you're drafting bigs that timeline can be extended even further as they take even longer to generate results typically.

That is not to say we shouldn't look to draft guys we think can be primary scoring options. That is certainly what we need because IMO this team lacks exactly that. We have great hustle and effort guys like Booker, Seraphin, Mason, and Vesely that can give you some points with some assistance. We have no one that can take over a game on offense.

Next years outcome will be largely dependent on Wall improving his game. People like to say he needs a better team around him and I agree, but I wonder if he'd continue to be the best player in such a scenario. I'm not sure I'd say he's better than Nene right now to be honest. He has a ton of potential but in year three for a point guard the potential argument goes out the window. It's show me time for Wall next season because what he's done this year is nice but it's better suited for a Rondo role, supporting other star players, than it is for what Wizards fans hope he'll become.

If Rondo could shoot free throws, I think he'd be awful close to a star. Unfortunately he can't though, and it's such a big limitation for a PG that it seriously hurts the Celtics in the fourth.

I don't think Wall will ever be a superstar player in the way Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul are. All of those guys are amazing scorers that can easily put up 22+ PPG for a season if they are called to do so. John is just not that type of scorer to match them IMO, and I don't know if he ever will be, or even has the desire to be. In his heart, John is a true pass first PG. He truly doesn't care about his brand or about getting his numbers. He would rather get assists or pass to assist than score himself. The only way I see him getting those high PPG totals is if he plays off the ball more and has someone good facilitating for him.

That's not a huge knock on Wall because I think he can be a great offensive player in time that facilitates a potent offense, just like JKidd did for so many years. You can certainly win with a true passing PG running the show for everyone.

John also has the potential to become a freakishly good defender the likes of which the PG position has never really seen. Not sure there has been a PG that plays above the rim like him, Magic I guess. Hell, he could probably be an amazing defender today if his effort level and concentration defending in the half court was as high as it is when he defends in transition.

John also is a galvanizing and natural leader who is comfortable shouldering the burden of leadership on the court and in the locker room. People just follow him and trust him and are a little in awe of him. He can be that true quarterback that a championship contender can rally around. That's worth its weight in gold IMO, and is as important as scoring ability, if not more so. I think you find more gifted scorers around the NBA than guys who are comfortable with the responsibility of leadership.

When he gets things sorted out defensively, I think John is definitely going to be the type of PG you can build a championship roster with, and the starting PG is such a huge piece of the puzzle. He's not a go to scorer for a great team, but he's the leader and facilitator for such a team. How far we go from there depends on whether or not we get the right mix of pieces around him, including a really gifted scoring wing you're envisioning.

[Destino]

Steve I agree with you about Rivers being potentially one of the most productive offensive players in the draft, at least initially. My only concern with him is that he can't seem to, or doesn't choose to, finish above the rim. He favors that scoop layup to finish off drives and in the NBA you've got to be able to finish strong.

He is easily the best ball handler in the draft and he can move in traffic which is impressive. I think a team will take him and try to turn him into a point guard. Stephen Curry with more quicks.

I don't think he'd fit with Wall. Wall already gets replaced as the point guard, essentially, by Crawford in the half court. Rivers is an even better creator and shooter. Add him and Wall will spend more time in the corner, running off screens, and otherwise functions without the ball. An odd situation for a guy that's supposed to be a superstar point guard.

[stevemcqueen1]

I actually think playing off the ball from time to time is a good way to manufacture buckets for Wall and get him to the rim.

But I'd hardly say Jordan replaces him at point in the half court. He may run the offense from point from time to time, but when both are on the court, the vast majority of possessions start with Wall handling the ball at the top of the key. Most of the time when Jordan is running point, it's Mack and Mason at the other guard spot.

I think making Rivers a PG is a mistake and something a team would only do because of his size IMO. I understand putting a 6'4 190 pound guard at PG to minimize his size disadvantage on defense, but Rivers is a true SG IMO, and a team is always best served by putting a guy in his natural position and filling in the gaps later.

I don't think getting someone like Rivers hurts Wall's scoring ability. If anything, I think Rivers would improve Wall's scoring and hurt his assist / game numbers. Rivers can create for himself and dish to Wall, and just having him in the lineup would create space for Wall in the lane.

As for his finishing, I think it's an issue of strength and confidence. He's so skinny, I don't think he's got that comfort level going up and throwing it down in traffic yet. The ability is definitely there though. He's actually a pretty nasty and creative dunker.

[Warhead36]

I want guys with potential, but I also want guys who've shown they can play. If a guy isn't able to live up to at least some of his potential and dominate in college, what makes you think he'll dominate in the pros at all? Going for potential is what gets guys like Marvin Williams drafted ahead of guys like Chris Paul.

[Destino]

Looking at the updated free agent list on ESPN and it's not very promising for the Wizards. The only star free agent is Deron Williams. The best restricted free agents are:

Eric Gordon
Nicolas Batum
Ryan Anderson
Roy Hibbert

I don't see them landing any of those. Hibbert isn't going anywhere. Batum and Anderson are going to be overpriced and I doubt either of them leave their teams. Gordon's mysterious knee injury makes him a risk and I'm sure he'll still draw big contracts.

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah, I think Gordon seems like the only one of those guys that might leave his team. I agree that his knee injury makes him a risk, and that he's likely to draw a sizable contract that we should hesitate to pay for an injured player.

I'd rather see him come back on a one year deal in NO and demonstrate his value with a really strong comeback season before hitting the open market.

---------- Post added April-2nd-2012 at 04:12 PM ----------

If the Knicks decided to blow the Amare + Carmelo + Lin + Chandler experiment up and trade Carmelo, and we could get him for Booker, Singleton/Seraphin, Vesely, Crawford, and our first round pick, would you all take that deal?

If we got the pick top three protected, I'd definitely consider it.