Well which wonderful FAs did we want to get in the first place? Kevin Garnet lol
Well which wonderful FAs did we want to get in the first place? Kevin Garnet lol
Does anyone think that's actually going to work?
Nene, Beal, Vesely, and pray John takes the rookie max extension because he has't figured out yet that he's wasting his career here...
Then maybe we can start from square one everywhere else.
Why are we putting this off two years with lousy veteran stop gaps? Why were Ernie and Wittman extended again?
I think it was more about hoping that Wall has a breakout season next year and that breakout enticing free agents next year. Then we would have the cap space to attract those FA here. Now we are stuck with 2 more guys who cant help with the future of this team, nor the biggest deficiency... the offense.
John Wall will not resign here if next year is another circus. I can guarantee that.
Last edited by Skin'emAlive; June-21st-2012 at 02:03 AM.
We'll grind that axe, for a long time!
Ariza is a seven million a year perimeter defender who is horrible offensively. That's terrible.
Okafor is a 14 million a year injury prone backup center. Let me repeat that. We're now paying 14 million a year for a backup center. That's completely absurd.
We'd already done this last year with the Nene trade. Could have finished the job by simply amnesty clausing Blatche. There are far cheaper and less restrictive options for adding veteran presences to the locker room than going out and trading for two of the most overpaid contracts in the league--contracts another team couldn't wait to get rid of. Hell, just extend Cartier Martin and James Singleton.I think after last year's toxic and immature locker room the FO and coaches badly want to create a more positive atmosphere for the young players to develop in. They also want more vets to balance it out as you really can't have a team of all 20-22 year olds or you end up with the early 2000s Bulls/Clippers or mid 2000s Celtics.
We will not solve our immediate shooting problems in the draft. By and large, rookies can't shoot. We can get pieces that might be good shooters down the line but in the short term, our only hope was to go through FA to get shooters. We can't afford to get anyone in FA now this year or next without first amnestying Blatche. And amnestying Blatche is a move we should think long and hard about now, because we may very well have to amnesty Nene instead.I agree that this trade doesn't solve our shooting woes, but there is still the draft and FA for that. And I think people are overrating raw cap space. Unless you're a team like the Lakers, you're not gunna be landing big name FAs with raw cap space. How often do these golden expirings really work out for teams? Look at the mess the Nets are in because they tried to go all in on Williams/Howard.
We aren't going to chase big time FAs any time soon. But now we can't even chase mid level or lower FAs because we essentially luxury taxed ourselves with the Nene and Okafor/Ariza deals.
FA is no longer a team building option for us this and next offseason. How do we fix our shooting problems in that time frame? Jan Vesely and John Wall learn to shoot? A 19 year old rookie comes in and takes over early? Some second rounders do it?
---------- Post added June-21st-2012 at 03:12 AM ----------
Aside from him, I'd have loved to have gone out and put a reasonable offer in for Gerald Green, Willie Green, Patrick Mills, or even Brandon Rush. A shooter.
Does anyone else get the sense that Ted doesn't really give a crap about the Wizards and only pays the franchise half a mind when the Caps aren't keeping him busy? How else can Ernie's extension be explained? How else can extending Wittman without even conducting a search be explained?
"Oh ****, I didn't even realize they were bad..."
---------- Post added June-21st-2012 at 03:23 AM ----------
Originally Posted by ErnieUh oh. I have a bad feeling about both of those little statements.Originally Posted by Ernie
So being too cheap to pay the buyout might have been a factor--although avoiding a buyout to take on two longer contracts for just as much money per year doesn't make sense as a cost saving measure over the next two years.
There was a third and fourth option of course--trade the contract for something to benefit the offense or just let the damn thing expire for us.
And the "it doesn't affect our plans in the draft statement" is troubling.
How are people going to feel about this deal when we come away with MKG, Andre Drummond, or Thomas Robinson on draft night?
Gerald Green would have been a great addition to this team for sure. So, let me get this straight:
Our best shooter currently on this team is Jordan Crawford? Is that right? Am i missing someone?
We'll grind that axe, for a long time!
We cannot amnesty Nene, per new CBA rules.
It will still be Blatche.
And I really wanted Batum, but the slim chances of that happening are now extinguished
I read a nice breakdown for why we didn't buy out Shard's contract and decided to trade it for two rotation players instead of either buying him out, amnestying him, or letting his deal expire. The trade makes a bit more sense financially when you understand a few things:
1.) Management wanted to get rid of Shard this offseason one way or another. I don't necessarily agree with that imperative, just know that it was an imperative that established the conditions of the trade for us. The team wanted to add vet rotation players and did not see Shard as a vet rotation player.
2.) Since we can't keep Shard to let his deal expire (see 1), our only options for getting rid of him were:
2a.) Amnestying Shard was almost certainly never seriously considered because the FO intends to use the amnesty clause on Blatche.
2b.) Buying out Shard's deal was expensive and put an expensive cap hold of 13.6 million for a guy who was no longer even a player on the team. Depending on whose analysis and numbers you trust, this cap hold may have still put us over the cap this summer, taking serious FA off the table this summer anyway.*
2c.) With amnesty off the table, trading Shard then became the only way to get rid of him this offseason while keeping one or more rotational players around at roughly his cap hold.
3.) Ted might very well be more interested in making the playoffs than aiming for the higher goal of building a sustainable contender like the Thunder or Bulls did. He's OK with us pulling a win now move that sacrifices flexibility to field a team with more rotational players to try and make a run at the playoffs with this group he's assembled today. He's taking his shot now. The goal is pretty low if you ask me. But I also understand that fan expectations and interest are very low at this point and he might simply be desperate to stave off fan apathy.
*Here's a concise breakdown from real GM of our cap situation to explain how buying out Shard's deal put us over the cap:
The gist of it:
-- 10 players under contract excluding Shard, salary totaling roughly 39 million (this figure includes the 3rd overall pick). This leaves us roughly 19 million in cap space if the cap number is the same as last year's.
-- add two minimum salary holds to get the roster to the minimum of 12 contracts (~2 million)
-- add a hold for the MLE (~5 million)
So that guy estimates we'd actually only have ~12 million in cap space, which would subsequently be wiped out by Shard's 13.6 million dollar buyout.
His numbers are funny. First off, I'm not sure why he put the MLE, minimum salary, and rookie salary exceptions into our cap figure. They are exceptions. They are for going over the cap.
If you take that out of his calculations since they're all cap exceptions, you save 9-11 million dollars depending on some of the numbers. That means post buyout, we'd have probably had at least 8 million to spend before we hit the cap and became eligible for those exceptions.
What that means to me is that Ted/Ernie felt we couldn't spend enough to get to the cap following a Shard buyout, so that we couldn't have triggered all of those exceptions. OR, they were attempting to avoid paying luxury tax derived from a Shard buyout for whatever reason. OR it means to me that Ted/Ernie were uncomfortable pursuing free agents at all. They didn't like the money they might have to commit to the type of free agent they felt they could actually sign because of the years of the contract they might have to offer.
I think this last bit was a huge part of the decision. It feels like they will no longer take on any deal aside from rookie contracts that will extend into the summer of 2014--When Wall, Seraphin, Crawford, and Booker are free agents. That could probably be a smart rule. There is every chance they're going to have to max out Wall that summer. But it could also be needlessly conservative and restrictive. We could very well afford/find valuable mid and lower level free agents for short term deals. Particularly if we're looking for shooters. Veteran shooters are pretty abundant relative to other types of role players, and that means you can find some for pretty cheap.
If you accept that buying out Shard or keeping him for his deal expire made meaningful FA an impossibility for us this summer, then it's whatever on this deal. We turned one non rotational player into two rotational players.
The problem is the deal also tanks our financial flexibility next summer too, whereas we'd have been completely off the hook for once and for all if we either bought out Shard or kept him. That's why this is a win now move. The fact that those were not the options we chose indicates to me the FO had no interest in pursuing FAs next summer either.
Again, this comes back to what I believe is the FO's desire to not take on any more deals aside from rookie contracts that extend into/past the summer of 2014.
Essentially, they're gambling that the Seraphin/Booker/Wall/Crawford core is worth clearing space for to keep intact, & that it's going to take a lot of space to keep intact...
It's not a terrible gamble because Wall and Seraphin seem to be working out and if they keep progressing, they will command interest as RFAs. But then you stop and think about it... what have any of these guys shown to make true believers out of anyone--that they have the ability to contend for championships?
Then you realize that the real goal/expectation might be simply to contend for the playoffs and not really for championships and then everything starts to make sense.
One of the downsides to this trade is that it puts two more players into our rotation who, to quote that real GM article, do not provide "surplus value under their contracts." That's putting it mildly.
That author lists opening up minutes for young players like Anthony Davis as one of the major positives of the trade for New Orleans but makes no acknowledgement of that same value for our own franchise.
I really, really hope Okafor doesn't get in the way of Seraphin and Booker. Especially Seraphin. Ditto for Ariza and Vesely to a lesser extent. Seraphin's time is now though. He's demonstrated he's ready for big minutes.
---------- Post added June-21st-2012 at 04:54 AM ----------
---------- Post added June-21st-2012 at 04:59 AM ----------
Basically, this Shard trade for me boils down to the Wizards taking the expedient way out yet again.
"We don't feel like having to deal with free agency so we'll take a losing deal just to turn one contract into two rotation players so long as their deals come off by 2014."
It feels like the exact same reasoning behind giving EG a contract extension until 2014 rather than conducting a real search for a long term GM commitment.
And it feels like the exact same reasoning behind extending Wittman to 2014 with no coaching search.
We're punting the next two years of development to try and see if we can maybe make the playoffs as a low seed with this current group.
Did you all know Jan Vesely converted on all of his dunks last year? 63 for 63. That's a nifty little factoid. Also shot .507 on layups and .563 on tip shots. Dude is actually a pretty good finisher at the rim. Apparently he's good at drawing contact and getting to the line while he does it too. Surprising he'd convert at such a high rate given how skinny he is.
Too bad he can't shoot free throws.
If he ever learned to shoot he'd be a special starting SF.
I'm parsing through the shot finder to see what kind of shots we're actually good at.
Nene is our most effective jump shooter by far, but also had one of the lowest sample sizes for this category on the team.
Emeka Okafor actually converted his jumpers at a terrific rate last season. Also, not a ton of attempts here, but he's shown an ability to knock them down from close to mid range.
Those two are actually our most efficient shooters by far, the only two who shot over .400 on jumpers.
I did not say the Wizards would make a run at Howard themselves. I said Shard's deal is much more valuable than what we got in return for it.
I understand that we're limiting ourselves as far as free agency this offseason and next, but when's the last time we brought in a big free agent here? Was it Jamison? Is that from lack of trying, lack of having the money, or lack of interest from players. I've just settled on the Wizards not being a team that's attractive. What I didn't want was to overpay for a Gordon and then be locked into that deal for the next 5-6 seasons. At least this way we're only locked in for 2 years, and if (as you say) expiring contracts are such a high value, then we've just set ourselves up for a trade next year because these guys will then have expiring contracts and so we can bring in something. The difference is that its inarguable that Lewis brought NOTHING to this team. Both Okafur and Ariza have been good in the past. They have injury histories as well and so potentially they can help us improve enough this season that free agents start looking at Washington as a place to come and as John Wall as a strong leader on this team. I think that's the main think we need to be looking for right now. We need to see how far Wall can take this team.
In my opinion, we're working with house money because Lewis wasn't a player who was gonna contribute, and I never had any wild dreams of us being all active in free agency. Even if we were active, I was fearful that we'd make the same mistakes we made with Blatche in falling in love with some promising young guy who doesn't have a history of producing, but did enough lately to demand a high dollar and is willing to come here, only to underperform. I mean that's kinda what we got with Ariza, but its only a 2 year deal, so it doesn't sting nearly as bad as something like Blatche's deal did.
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Looks like our best sources of offense next season is going to be:
1.) Wall and Crawford creating around the basket off the dribble--neither all that efficiently
2.) A very respectable faceup game from Nene and Okafor. Nene finds his way to the line well and can score pretty well in iso post up situations. Okafor is more of a pure faceup shooter than Nene judging by his numbers. His consistency on close range and mid range jumpers is actually high quality.
3.) A super efficient Kevin Seraphin jump hook that he is capable of getting off in ISO situations.
4.) Spot up shooting from Brad Beal assuming we draft him (not totally comfortable assuming this). Efficiency here would be anyone's guess.
5.) Transition buckets.
Our three best scorers are Nene, Seraphin, and Okafor.
I agree with No Excuses that our roster is very unbalanced right now. Our inside scoring is actually pretty good now. It's efficient and varied. But our perimeter scoring is still terrible to the point it offsets what we do well in the frontcourt--we won't feature a good offense next year without some of our poor shooters drastically improving.
We're probably the worst shooting team in the league last season. We were arguably the worst jump shooting team in the league. This is an area we really needed to improve.
If Ariza and Okafor truly make a difference on D, and if we draft Beal and he comes in and defends well, then we should definitely win more games. We were bottom third of the league in defense last season, the perimeter defense was bad, and for most of the year, the post defense was too. But how many more? Perimeter and post defense were probably our third and fourth biggest needs after perimeter shooting and rebounding.
I'm really interested to see what we do in the draft and how we deal with some of our excess forwards. I'm going to be troubled if we don't draft or acquire a shooter because we're reaching critical mass with our shooting problems.
I know coaches and GMs don't like to focus on makes and misses because it puts unproductive pressure on players to make shots. But I think we've taken that to mean you should ignore shooting ability. How is it that we've assembled a team full of guys where a ten day contract player like Cartier Martin is the only guy on the team who shoot from range with any respectability? This is a team wide problem.
If we do make the playoffs off of D and hustle some time within the next two years, we're going to be like Philly was--have to catch all the right breaks to win games and we're going to get bounced eventually because we can't shoot.
There are just so many brought about by this deal IMO. I've been trying to figure it out from every angle possible and I just can't come up with a take where the gains convincingly outweigh the losses. The core justification for it that I keep coming back to is that we're punting the next two offseasons to see if we can make a modest run with this group. That line of thinking is so foreign to me as to be nearly incomprehensible. Why not try and build a sustainable and legit run from the get go like the Thunder did. Presti's goal when he set out was to build sustainability.
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