Indystar.com: Colts matchup week 6: Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Washington Redskins (3-2)

[Oldskool]

http://www.indystar.com/article/2010...21/1004/SPORTS

PHIL B.'S PREDICTION: COLTS 27, REDSKINS 24

This NFL season has become so unpredictable, it seems impossible to guess about which way this game will go. Washington has been a tough out at home, all three nailbiters, blowing a 17-point lead against Houston in the one FedEx Field game lost. The Colts have been less than stellar on the road, losing at Houston and at Jacksonville. If they have one thing in common, both the Redskins and Colts are coming off gritty wins at home. Washington edged Green Bay 16-13 in OT. The Colts knocked off Kansas City 19-9 to give the NFL’s last unbeaten team its first loss.

So why pick the Colts? Because we keep expecting this team to show the form it has continually displayed in past 12-win seasons. Because the game is in prime time and Colts QB Peyton Manning tends to shine in these moments. And because the Redskins have trouble protecting the passer, they don’t blow teams away with an unstoppable offense and the Colts seem to match up well with this team. Think about it. The Colts have just two sacks in three games, one of those on a fumbled snap. Yet here are the Redskins, who have allowed 11 sacks. Sounds like an opportunity for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to feast. Then there’s Manning, who for the first time this season didn’t throw for 300 yards or have a TD pass. Yeah, like that’s going to happen two games in a row.

Still, always mindful there are two sides to a coin, the Redskins could win because QB Donovan McNabb has proven, once again, football is a team game. It’s about making clutch plays at the most important times. It’s about a leader managing the ebbs and flows. McNabb’s numbers aren’t that impressive. He tends to lock in on a couple guys in the passing game. But he makes it work. All that said, nobody manages a game better than Manning. And while the Colts have issues – still not sold all the defensive problems are fixed because the guys played well at home twice – Manning will remind a national television audience of his greatness. That’s enough.

COLTS' RUN OFFENSE VS. REDSKINS' RUN DEFENSE

The Colts have been without backup RB Donald Brown for two weeks. Now leading rusher Joseph Addai has a shoulder/neck injury. Even if the Colts need to bring in someone new, past results suggest the Colts typically don’t run for much. They’re averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Not that the Redskins have been great at stopping it. They’re allowing 4.5 yards per carry. So it’s almost a push. Almost. EDGE: REDSKINS.

COLTS' PASS OFFENSE VS. REDSKINS' PASS DEFENSE

No NFL quarterback has attempted more passes in five games than the Colts’ Peyton Manning at 216. But Kansas City had him guessing with a 2-3-6 alignment, sure to be copied by others after Manning failed to pass for 300 yards or a TD. The Redskins have a decent pass rush with 12 sacks, four by Brian Orakpo, but are allowing 298 yards passing per game. Colts WR Reggie Wayne leads the NFL with 39 catches. EDGE: COLTS.

REDSKINS' RUN OFFENSE VS. COLTS' RUN DEFENSE

Clinton Portis is out with a groin injury, so the Redskins have been handing off to second-year RB Ryan Torain, who is averaging 3.8 yards per carry. The Redskins average 3.9 yards as a team. The Colts are among the NFL’s worst at stopping the run at 142.2 yards allowed per game. Teams look to overpower smaller Colts defenders. EDGE: REDSKINS.

REDSKINS' PASS OFFENSE VS. COLTS' PASS DEFENSE

Donovan McNabb always seems give his team a chance, although his 56.5 completion percentage isn’t gaudy, he’s been sacked 11 times and has thrown three interceptions. Yet the Redskins win because, like their leader, they make clutch plays. The Colts have been inconsistent in pass coverage and generating a pass rush. They have just two sacks in three games. This could be a key to the game’s outcome. EDGE: EVEN.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Colts continue to be steady with field goals, punts and kicking off. P Pat McAfee has 11 kickoff touchbacks, which ties for the league lead. PK Adam Vinatieri has made all eight of his FG attempts. Redskins PK Graham Gano has made a clutch kick to win a game (Green Bay) and missed another that ended up costing his team an OT game (Houston). Redskins have a modest edge in return yards. EDGE: EVEN.

COACHES

Redskins coach Mike Shanahan, winner of two Super Bowl rings while with Denver, is owner Dan Snyder’s latest expensive investment. Shanahan acquired a mobile quarterback in Donovan McNabb and stood up to disgruntled holdout DT Albert Haynesworth. The coach has restored some order. Colts coach Jim Caldwell’s team has been hit by injuries, but fans have been quick to criticize him in losses. EDGE: REDSKINS.

[PortisBetts]

pretty fair analysis

[Snarky]

Depends on which Colts team shows up. I'm expecting an all-out assault with Peyton in prime time. We better put out big-boy cleats on for this one...

[rockfan7224]

Agreed, this is a pretty spot on analysis.

[D'KanSkinFan]

Okay, if anyone saw anything last Sunday of the KC/Indy game - you saw the "holes". This, statement, to me is the biggest indicator that we can beat them: The Colts have been inconsistent in pass coverage and generating a pass rush. They have just two sacks in three games. This could be a key to the game’s outcome.

One point this comparison did not have in it: OUR DEFENSE. So, I would say, Peyton has things to look at and be concerned about because every Defensive player wants to put Manning on his - uh - back.

[Oldskool]

Depends on which Colts team shows up. I'm expecting an all-out assault with Peyton in prime time. We better put out big-boy cleats on for this one...

I expect that the Skins will run similar oddball secondary formations and for them not to set in their defensive scheme until the last moment, just as KC did this last week in order to confuse Manning. The way that you beat Indy is to run the ball, control the clock, keep Manning on the bench and force them to run the ball or to settle for short passes.

[Hitman21ST]

are the special teams and redskins pass O vs colts pass D pushes?

[[[ghost]]]

Peyton + Wayne + No run game - Addai = Aerial Assault.

We'll have to contain Manning and keep up with him.

If our offense can drop more than 25, and that is by no means a given, then we stand a good chance.

[Oldskool]

are the special teams and redskins pass O vs colts pass D pushes?

Sorry that was a formatting error on my part. It's fixed now.

[pjfootballer]

We've given up 11 sacks, but 5 were in this past game. So through the first 4, we'd given up 6. Around 1.5 a game. I think it will be tight. 27-24 seems fair.

[Oldskool]

We've given up 11 sacks, but 5 were in this past game. So through the first 4, we'd given up 6. Around 1.5 a game. I think it will be tight. 27-24 seems fair.

With 3-4 teams, you don't know where the pressure is going to come from the 4 LB's. With Indy playing a 4-3 and a Tampa 2 shell, you know exactly where the pressure is coming from and that makes it much easier to game plan for.

[Kostaskins]

running and keeping there offense off the field is gonna be huge!

[JimmyConway]

Depends on which Colts team shows up. I'm expecting an all-out assault with Peyton in prime time. We better put out big-boy cleats on for this one...

It also depends on which Redskins team shows up. The Skins can't allow Manning to shred them like Schuab did because our offense can't stay with their offense. However, Schuab had a running game to set-up the pass whereas the Colts running game is pretty weak. We also held Rogers and Romo in check.

IMO the key to the game will be pressuring Manning the way we did against Rogers in crunch time. Keeping Manning off the field with a strong running game always helps (still surprised we pulled it out against the Pack w/o a running game).

FYI, Manning had a field day the last time we met the Manning and the Colts.

[HailToTheRedskins14]

We really, really have to be able to run the ball here. I'd definitely say that the matchup to watch is Skins Rush Offense Vs. Colts Rush Defense. If we can't run the ball and are constantly having quick 3 and outs, we're in trouble. You simply can't give Peyton multiple chances. That's what scared me about the Packers.

Especially considering, if we get behind, Kyle Shanahan has a tendency to completely abandon the run. Now granted the rushing hasn't done a whole lot, but I'd take Manning and the Colts WR's over McNabb and our WR's in a shootout any day of the week. Gonna be interesting. I think it all starts with those fat boys up front this Sunday. And I love that it's primetime. Means everybody will be watching. The pressure is on! HUGE game, biggest game of the year for us...4-2 or 3-3? WHATCHA GOT BOYS!

[DeadExField]

Over the last two years of Shanahan being out of the NFL, I believe he studied the Colts extensively to get a hold of their game. If I took a break from coaching, the Colts is the first team I would study from the ground up. I'm looking for Shanahan to surprise us if we can be mistake free. In Shanahan's last 8 meetings with the Colts he is 2-6 (1999-now) and the Redskins last 3 meetings vs the Colts the redskins are 2-1 (1999-now). With a win/loss like that, I'm sure Shanahan did his homework during his brief hiatus from coaching