Last year I would have traded 2 full drafts for Sam Bradford, and this year might be tempted to do it again for Andrew Luck. By full drafts, I mean all available picks, rounds 1-3.
However, this year I don't see the Panthers giving up the pick, assuming they pick #1, and I don't see Shanahan offering what would be required.
So, we move on to Plan B. Elsewhere I've made the argument for Rex Grossman as starter. Here I simply give you History's Guide to QBs Picked in the Redskin Slot.
"Redskin Slot" is defined as the higher of:
This presumes that 2 QBs will be picked in the first 5 picks, and the Redskins will draft #6 or lower. The actual scenario could be worse. As many as 3 QBs could be picked before the Redskins pick, and the Redskins might pick as low as #10.
- 3rd QB picked in the first round, or
- First QB picked with pick #6 or lower
Here we go. Meet the future Redskin franchise QBs, from 25 years of history!
2010: Tim Tebow (#25, second QB after Sam Bradford)
2009: Josh Freeman (#17, third QB. Mark Sanchez was #5)
2008: Joe Flacco (#18, second QB after Matt Ryan)
2007: Brady Quinn (#22, second QB after JaMarcus Russell)
2006: Matt Leinart (#10, second QB after Vince Young)
2005: Aaron Rodgers (#24, second QB after Alex Smith)
2004: Ben Roethlisberger (#11, third QB after Eli Manning and Philip Rivers)
2003: Byron Leftwich (#7, second QB after Carson Palmer)
2002: Patrick Ramsey (#32, third QB after David Carr & Joey Harrington)
2001: N/A no qualifiers
2000: N/A no qualifiers
1999: Akili Smith (#3, third QB after Tim Couch & Donovan McNabb)
1998: N/A no qualfiers. Ryan Leaf #2, second QB after Peyton Manning
1997: N/A no qualifiers
1996: N/A no qualifiers
1995: N/A no qualifiers. Kerry Collins #5 after Steve McNair.
1994: Trent Dilfer (#6, second QB after Heath Schuler)
1993: N/A no qualifiers. Rick Mirer #2, second QB after Drew Bledsoe.
1992: Tommy Maddox (#25, second QB after David Klinger)
1991: Todd Marinovich (#24, second QB after Dan McGuire)
1990: Andre Ware (#7, second QB after Jeff George)
1989: N/A no qualifiers
1988: N/A no qualiifers
1987: Kelly Stouffer (#6, second QB after Vinny Testaverde)
1986: Chuck Long (#12, second QB after Jim Everett)
I wanted Sam Bradford last year, and I want Andrew Luck this year. Assuming that we aren't getting Luck, history tells us that picking "the next best thing" has about a 16% chance of working out, and 84% chance of saddling the team with an expensive bust who costs a pick better used for another position.
- 25 drafts
- 4 drafts with franchise QBs available & chosen in / around Redskin slot
- 21 drafts with busts in Redskin slot or not even a 2nd QB chosen in first round
- Odds of hitting franchise QB: 16%
There is no second place in the franchise QB derby, at the top of the draft. Either you win big, or it's a disaster that scars the franchise for years. You don't get 90% of a franchise QB by missing: you get 100% of a 4-year hangover.
Drafting a franchise QB is a dream come true. Wanting that dream does not make it happen, and using a high #1 pick on wishful thinking has 84% odds of making things much worse.
The Redkins simply don't suck enough to be rewarded with a franchise QB.
So says history.
If Grossman doesn't regress badly and immediately, he's the obvious Redskins starting QB for the next four years under the Shanahan regime. If he does regress badly in the next 2 games, then I'd look long and hard at trading whatever is required for Andrew Luck.
It's all about the next two games. Either Grossman performs, or all chips should be on the table for Andrew Luck.