Drafting a franchise QB from the Redskins draft slot: what 25 years of history tells us

[Vilandil Tasardur]

Looking at your list, something jumps out to me. In most cases where those busts occur, the problem wasn't that the team was too low to get the best QB, it was that that draft simply didn't have a franchise QB.

2010, in my mind, is to soon to tell. I doubt Tebow is anything, but I can't know it for sure.
2009: All three QBs appear to be franchise QBs.
2008: Both were franchise QBs.
2007: Both Russel and Quinn were busts
2006: Both Leinart and Young were busts
2005: Rodgers is a stud, Campbell (right after) and Alex Smith were busts.
2004: RIvers, Eli, and Ben are studs
2003: Tough to grade Leftwhich and Palmer. I wouldn't call them busts.


The point that I'm trying to make is that history shows us that, with the exception of 2005 and MAYBE 2010, we rarely see the draft playing out as some of the QBs being studs and some being busts.

Instead, we usually see clusters. A given draft either has 2-3 studs, or it has 2-3 busts. Look at it in terms of draft classes.
09 are all studs
08 are all studs
07 are all busts
06 are all busts
05 is the anomaly where you get one guy in each category
04 were all studs
03 you can classify either way, but they were pretty equal in their success.

I don't know what the data means, but I can tell you I don't buy into "QB X is a stud and QB Y will be a bust." In my mind, that is just some people wanting to put down the QB they don't like in order to pull up the one they do. When you look at the actual data, you can see that entire draft classes tend to go together. Rarely do you see one of the QBs pan out and one bust, as was the case in 2005. Again, 2010 may be the case, with Bradford looking like a stud. But I'm not ready to make that claim until I see how Tebow, Claussen, and Mccoy pan out. I know they aren't first rounders, but still.

[GothSkinsFan]

1st this year, 1st next year, 2nd this year, 2nd next year, 4th next year + Cooley or Davis

Andrew Luck is going to be a star and an excellent fit in our system

If you trade away all those picks and players, what system?
If you fix the rest of the team then in a couple of years you can spend every pick on a QB.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

If you trade away all those picks and players, what system?
If you fix the rest of the team then in a couple of years you can spend every pick on a QB.

You can't predict that we'll be in a position to get a QB in a couple of years.

[.gunslinger.]

we all know a tight end is a QB's security blanket, so we start giving up Cooley and Davis, who the crap is this guy supposed to throw to? Especially a rookie QB, he will need a good TE more than most. Also, correct me if I'm wrong (knowing I covet Luck as well, best QB by far) isn't Kellen Moore coming out this year (Sr.)? I know he's extremely accurate. Not sure about arm strength. But I know Boise ran a lot of roll outs/ play action for him as well and he excelled in that; which is very similar to what we do. He also seems to make better decisions than Jake Locker, Ryan Mallet or Christian Ponder. With Ponder being injury prone I wouldn't want him. Locker and Mallet have riffles for arms, but make me nervous. Just wondering what the thought on Moore is. I would love to get Luck, but it seems Moore would excel in our offense.

-HTTR

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

we all know a tight end is a QB's security blanket, so we start giving up Cooley and Davis, who the crap is this guy supposed to throw to? Especially a rookie QB, he will need a good TE more than most. Also, correct me if I'm wrong (knowing I covet Luck as well, best QB by far) isn't Kellen Moore coming out this year (Sr.)? I know he's extremely accurate. Not sure about arm strength. But I know Boise ran a lot of roll outs/ play action for him as well and he excelled in that; which is very similar to what we do. He also seems to make better decisions than Jake Locker, Ryan Mallet or Christian Ponder. With Ponder being injury prone I wouldn't want him. Locker and Mallet have riffles for arms, but make me nervous. Just wondering what the thought on Moore is. I would love to get Luck, but it seems Moore would excel in our offense.

-HTTR

I like Kellen Moore but I don't believe that he has the arm strength that Shanny likes in his QBs.

[SkinsHokieFan]

If you trade away all those picks and players, what system?
If you fix the rest of the team then in a couple of years you can spend every pick on a QB.

You get the QB first. It moves your franchise much quicker

Yes, we can spend 5 years to put together a perfect o-line, 2 stud WRs, and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens on D. Yet we still won't get to the Superbowl

Or we could get the man at QB, allow him to work with the pieces we have now, supplement a bit through FA to give him a better o-line and, similar to the Giants, draft well over the next few years and have something special set up for the next decade

I would love it if we found a QB in round 6 like Brady. But damn, think of how much futher along we would be with Bradford today

[DarrellsMyHero28]

Agree, but we were 4-3 at one point

There was still a very good chance at making the playoffs.

A 4-12 team wouldn't get us the top spot

True.

Never should have traded for McNabb. Should have traded Fat Albert.

Shoulda coulda woulda.

Gotta get a franchise QB. There's no one on this roster who comes close to that.

[.gunslinger.]

I like Kellen Moore but I don't believe that he has the arm strength that Shanny likes in his QBs.

Yeah, that was my biggest question about him. I wasn't to sure of his arm. Maybe with some good off-season work he can build that up. Bradford went from scrawny to pretty well bulked up before the draft and that seemed to help his velocity from what i saw from him in Oklahoma. I know Moore is a sniper, now he needs to trade in that .22 for something with some kick to it...

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

True.

Never should have traded for McNabb. Should have traded Fat Albert.

Shoulda coulda woulda.

Or we could have just stayed in a 4-3 and built the defense around him (which was my choice).

Shoulda coulda woulda.

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 04:22 AM ----------

Yeah, that was my biggest question about him. I wasn't to sure of his arm. Maybe with some good off-season work he can build that up. Bradford went from scrawny to pretty well bulked up before the draft and that seemed to help his velocity from what i saw from him in Oklahoma. I know Moore is a sniper, now he needs to trade in that .22 for something with some kick to it...

I wish we had managed to pull off the Cutler trade.

[Travdaskin]

Fix the o-line and maybe the QB play will pick up?

[mistertim]

I would love it if we found a QB in round 6 like Brady. But damn, think of how much futher along we would be with Bradford today

I don't really get some people who talk about looking for a gem in later rounds for a QB. It hardly ever happens. Ever. The situation with Brady is a complete anomaly. For any one Brady there are probably hundreds of other QBs taken in mid to late rounds that do absolutely zero. Or, at best, end up as decent backups or passable starters after some time.

Yes, you're going to have an anomaly every once in a while ala Brady or Warner (though I wouldn't put Warner in the same catagory at all). Romo is a good but not great QB. Look at how many of the top QBs in the league were 1st round picks (many being high 1st rounders). There is a reason for that. If anything you use later rounds to find positions like OL, DL, or sometimes LB as there is more of a chance that they will become quality starters.

Obviously trading multiple picks to move up for a guy is a risk. But I trust that Shanahan knows what he is doing when it comes to QBs. And, sooner or later, you're going to have to take a chance and go for it if you see "the guy". Last year Shanny really wanted Bradford but wasn't able to get him. He has seen that Bradford has played well this year and helped start to really turn that team around. I would be incredibly surprised if he didn't like Luck at least as much as Bradford. If he is convinced Luck is the real deal, I doubt he will let the chance pass again without a serious fight.

[The Tris]

Giving up 4 top 40 picks for any player, especially an unproven one, is patently absurd.

[Backpack3r]

What about Cam Newton? Is he supposed to be a 1st round pick?

[1972FAN]

There is no second place in the franchise QB derby, at the top of the draft. Either you win big, or it's a disaster that scars the franchise for years. You don't get 90% of a franchise QB by missing: you get 100% of a 4-year hangover.

using a high #1 pick on wishful thinking has 84% odds of making things much worse.

Thats not necessarily ALWAYS the case

1983 Draft

1. John Elway (#1 pick)
2. Jim Kelly (#14 pick)
3. Dan Marino (#27 pick)

Stating the obvious, I would consider all of them franchise QB's, Buffalo should of won a Superbowl, if not for their stupid kicker and Marino did go to a Superbowl,

[Vilandil Tasardur]

Thats not necessarily ALWAYS the case

1983 Draft

1. John Elway (#1 pick)
2. Jim Kelly (#14 pick)
3. Dan Marino (#27 pick)

Stating the obvious, I would consider all of them franchise QB's, Buffalo should of won a Superbowl, if not for their stupid kicker and Marino did go to a Superbowl,

That kind of goes along with my earlier post, which everyone else seems to have ignored.

QBs don't seem to be studs or bust, instead draft classes seem to be studs or bust. For whatever reason, it seems like QBs in a given draft class tend to have similar fates.