Drafting a franchise QB from the Redskins draft slot: what 25 years of history tells us

[Duckus]

The problem is everyone and their mother knows Andrew Luck will be a franchise QB for the next decade.

No one is going to pass that up.

[1972FAN]

The problem is everyone and their mother knows Andrew Luck will be a franchise QB for the next decade.

No one is going to pass that up.

I agree Luck is the closest to NFL Caliber Ready out of the gate. Thats why I don't pay any mind to the Heisman winner. Not sure of the percentage of the winner, but I'm sure its a very low percentage that they amount to anything in the NFL.

[SkinsHokieFan]

The problem is everyone and their mother knows Andrew Luck will be a franchise QB for the next decade.

No one is going to pass that up.

The Panthers did give us 2 first round picks for Sean Gilbert back during the 1998 offseason

Maybe they make another silly move?

[Mad Mike]

Um..... No.

Teams aren't built on statistical probabilities. And they aren't built by giving away two years worth of draft picks.

In fact, I find the irony of your reliance on statistical probabilities based on 25 years of history to argue for something as drastic as you propose a little mind numbing. Tell me. What is the success rate over the last 25 years for teams who give up two entire drafts to get their "franchise QB"? And if drafting the wrong QB can set you back for years, how much worse are you if you have given away all of your draft picks to get him.

[hitmandm]

I said this in another thread, but there is nothing worse than being really bad but going 5-11, 6-10 or 7-9. If you are going to suck, go big. Go 2-14 or 3-13. It is your best chance to grab a franchise QB. There is nothing worse for a franchise than slowly dying with 7-9 or 8-8 records, drafting 10th through 15th and never being bad enough to grab a game changing franchise player.

OMG...someone who pays attention to the NFL

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 12:08 AM ----------

The problem is everyone and their mother knows Andrew Luck will be a franchise QB for the next decade.

No one is going to pass that up.

I think you can buy Carolina out of that pick. They did spend a 2nd on Claussen. If you give them 5 top picks, they might decide it is worth it.

It is hilarious that everyone here says a QB isnt worth it, but then the discussion is that no one will take this "paying too much package" to give up this QB.

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 12:10 AM ----------

You can't predict that we'll be in a position to get a QB in a couple of years.

thats right. The absolute flaw in every argument regarding getting a QB in a couple of years.

[DarrellsMyHero28]

Or we could have just stayed in a 4-3 and built the defense around him (which was my choice).

Shoulda coulda woulda.

Yes and no.

Albert fits better in the 4-3 obviously but I'm sure him and Shanny would have gone at it no matter what defense we were playing.

Whatever, not the point of this thread.

Get a damn QB.

[scampbell1975]

Which is why we should have started IRing guys and putting in younger guys earlier in the season. As soon as we were mathematically eliminated we should have started tanking.

No one likes to hear that but there is NO reason to keep winning games once you know you won't make the playoffs. I can't root against this team but I don't want us to win these next games because it does zero for the team going forward.

I can NEVER agree with purposely losing games. It's just not in a competitive man's nature.

[GSF]

The Skins can't afford to trade away draft picks period. The roster is just way to thin.

[DarrellsMyHero28]

I can NEVER agree with purposely losing games. It's just not in a competitive man's nature.

Trust me, I'm a very competitive person.

But when you're running a franchise, you have to look at the big picture.

Its not the NBA, where you can only get a CHANCE to get the #1 pick. The worse the record, the better the pick, and if anyone believes that this team has the pieces to compete...I laugh at you.

This team is horrid. Bottom 5 in the NFL, talent wise. We're embarrassingly bad. Winning this year just pushed our rebuilding back even further.

Beating the Cowboys and Eagles once was fun and all, but it really hasn't done anything.

[Backpack3r]

We should draft Cam Newton. We would have something to look forward to in the future and we would have an exciting player ala John wall

[Boy1Der]

MARK MY WORDS: After the combine everybody is going to be drooling over Jake Locker and he is most likely going to be our pick. Last year everybody had him being the #1 pick if he came out but he decided to stay an extra year and it didn't go as well as planned due to the lack of talent around him.

Locker is mobile big and has a pretty good arm which is what the skins need with our offensive line and Shanahan like to stretch the field. Watch come draft day Locker will be our pick and he will be around when we pick because someone will jump on Newton before we pick or if both Newton and Locker are on the board Shanny will pick Locker.

[GothSkinsFan]

This isn't the NBA. Game-changing players can readily be round outside the top 9 picks. In fact, to suggest otherwise is an utterly silly statement, born out by: Dan Marino (27th pick in 1983) -- can you imagine if he'd fallen to the Skins 1 pick later? Marino with a running game? Scary. Tom Brady? Oh right, system guy. You can go through the draft lists year after year.

[darrelgreenie]

I spot 8 1st pick QB that didn't pan out either.

[Snagletooth]

Besides QB, those high first round picks would ideally be used at Left Tackle and for a pass rusher. We are looking pretty good at those positions, so it might not kill us, despite our many holes, to trade our top picks for a QB with as much potential as Luck.

Lets say we do get Luck, and he is on par with Bradford. I don't think the lack of additional picks cripples his ability to develop that talent. We don't have to have those premium picks to fill in the OL interior and I don't think anyone wants to be spending premium picks at RB in the Shanny system anyway.

With FA we can provide the supporting cast for Luck. The defense would likely be stunted, but that won't "ruin" Luck. We would likely be a few years out, still, but we would have the QB in place.

[mistertim]

MARK MY WORDS: After the combine everybody is going to be drooling over Jake Locker and he is most likely going to be our pick. Last year everybody had him being the #1 pick if he came out but he decided to stay an extra year and it didn't go as well as planned due to the lack of talent around him.

Locker is mobile big and has a pretty good arm which is what the skins need with our offensive line and Shanahan like to stretch the field. Watch come draft day Locker will be our pick and he will be around when we pick because someone will jump on Newton before we pick or if both Newton and Locker are on the board Shanny will pick Locker.

I don't think this is necessarily true. Teams have (generally) gotten smarter over the years about picking a guy high purely based on combines, tons of athletic ability, and "potential". The bottom line is, they will see him at the combine and at his pro day and say "this guy definitely has the tools". Then they will go into the film room and break down his play and see many shortcomings that will likely mark him as a project sort of player. Any time a guy regresses from one year to the next, while in the same system, its a bad sign...especially when his comp % goes down when it wasn't that good before.

Did Locker have elite talent around him? No. But he didn't have the worst players ever like some seem to suggest. Bottom line is that he is inconsistent. Inconsistent in his throws, in his footwork, technique, etc. When I watched him this year he would look great at times then he would suddenly lay an egg after that. I wouldn't mind Locker if Shanny likes him, but NOT with a top 10 pick. You don't draft a QB who will likely be a project in the NFL in the top 10. I'm guessing he falls to the later 1st round.