Drafting a franchise QB from the Redskins draft slot: what 25 years of history tells us

[Spartacus87]

MARK MY WORDS: After the combine everybody is going to be drooling over Jake Locker and he is most likely going to be our pick. Last year everybody had him being the #1 pick if he came out but he decided to stay an extra year and it didn't go as well as planned due to the lack of talent around him.

Locker is mobile big and has a pretty good arm which is what the skins need with our offensive line and Shanahan like to stretch the field. Watch come draft day Locker will be our pick and he will be around when we pick because someone will jump on Newton before we pick or if both Newton and Locker are on the board Shanny will pick Locker.

Nobody but Todd McShay had Locker as some kind of universal 1st overall pick. The NFL Draft Advisory board gave him a 2nd round grade actually.

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 03:59 AM ----------

I can NEVER agree with purposely losing games. It's just not in a competitive man's nature.

That sounds well and good, until you keep going 7-9, 8-8, 6-10, 8-8, 9-7, over and over and over again.

The people arguing for simply tanking it are correct. I don't believe in fully rebuilding and cutting everybody to start from scratch; teams that do that take years to gain talent back, but when you're in need of a QB and your team sort of sucks as a whole, at some point you just start putting guys on IR, testing out young elements of your team, and figure out how you're going to get your top 1st round QB target in the upcoming draft.

[Hubbs]

We should draft Cam Newton. We would have something to look forward to in the future and we would have an exciting player ala John wall

Remember, kids: Drugs are bad, mmkay?

[Spartacus87]

For those wanting to trade up to get Luck, and those last year including myself who wanted Bradford, how much are you willing to give up in draft picks? Every team will trade their pick for the right pick.

You really don't want to know how much I'd be willing to do for the Redskins to land Andrew Luck.

That's a long, dark road that nobody needs to head down.

[Backpack3r]

Remember, kids: Drugs are bad, mmkay?

Hes gonna be drafted in the 1st round probably

[JoeSkinsfaninNJ]

ASF, you forgot the 3rd QB picked in the first round of the 2006 NFL draft, Jay Cutler drafted by Shanahan. So, at least Mike is one for one in picking the third QB of a first round. I like those odds!
Also, since 2004 the percentage has been much better. Let's hope that continues in April.

[longball]

Can this team going into next year or even two years protect any quarterback? Probably not, I say focus on drafting o-lineman and be vocal about the rebuilding process. Bring in a young talented QB to get rushed, hit, and hurried would only negatively impact the QBs career in my mind. I can see the happy feet in the pocket now. Suck it up for another year which is what we should have done but we somehow paid for McNabb(?), let Grossman or any QB play next year. We are not competing this year or in 2012 likely. But focus on getting young at the o and d line. Just my two cents. Organization needs to come out and say we are rebuilding!!! When will this happen?

[K.O. Johnny]

Why don't we try and develop someone.

I really liked Tony Pike out of Cincy in the 2010 draft and he went in the sixth round - kinda like Tom Brady. Why don't we go for him.

The talent is out there, no need to sell the farm folks. All this talk of give them Cooley, this year's first, next year's first, blah, blah, yadda, yadda. These kind of moves are what's gotten us into this hole in the first place. I swear, Vinny posts on ES sometimes.

[seriously]

I would rather get as much with our picks (and any other picks we can get for current players) and build our trenches. A mediocre QB (Rex/Beck) can get us through just fine with a good o-line before a rookie (don't care how good) can without time to throw.

[Shanahanigans]

If you have the opportunity to get the QB you need, you do it! That's all. If it's not this year, it will be next, but if there is someone that Shanny likes, which isn't that often, he needs to get his guy. Plummer took us to the AFCCG before Shanny decided that was as far as Plummer was going to go. Although, that was based more on dedication, rather than skillset. Sure enough, Plummer had his worst year with the Broncos in 06 after Cutler was drafted. A player who becomes complacent will not go far with Shanny. Work ethic and the ability to be coached is far more important than than being NFL ready. Cutler had bad habits and poor footwork. They were all coming along nicely until Shanny was let go. He is often criticized for it today as he's regressed some, but hopefully under Martz, that will also improve in a couple of years with proper protection. Shanny drafted a RT in 07 and a LT in 08 all after Cutler was drafted. They were part of one of the best o-lines in the NFL.

Another thing to note that often gets overlooked is the situation that the QB is put in. Jamarcus was lazy and just wanted to get paid, but he didn't have any mentors and had multiple coaches in his short time with the Raiders. The proper mentoring and coaching goes a long way to success. Shanny will give any QB the tools to succeed. Griese, Plummer, etc. all did very well under Shanny. I think the one thing he didn't give Cutler was a good defense. Plummer used that all up.

[S.T.real,lights,out]

I agree! It's Luck or nothing. I would give up two 1st round picks to get this guy. I would not want to give up this years 2nd tho. I think we really need to use that on a C, or G if we dont get one in FA. Dont want him getting killed in his 1st year. That throw he made at the :40 mark was amazing.

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 07:31 AM ----------

Why don't we try and develop someone.

I really liked Tony Pike out of Cincy in the 2010 draft and he went in the sixth round - kinda like Tom Brady. Why don't we go for him.

The talent is out there, no need to sell the farm folks. All this talk of give them Cooley, this year's first, next year's first, blah, blah, yadda, yadda. These kind of moves are what's gotten us into this hole in the first place. I swear, Vinny posts on ES sometimes.

NO!! We haven't made moves like this for players like this. This is y we are in the position we are now. If we would have given up picks we would have a guy like Bradford or even Sanchez. We would have our QB of the future. Instead we gave up picks for McNabb and now we are stuck with Grossman. The longer we wait to bring our star QB and im not talking about a development project the longer we are going to suck!

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 07:32 AM ----------

I would rather get as much with our picks (and any other picks we can get for current players) and build our trenches. A mediocre QB (Rex/Beck) can get us through just fine with a good o-line before a rookie (don't care how good) can without time to throw.

Tell that to Bradford. When u get rid of the ball quick and cam make quick decisions you dont need as good of a line.

[Riggo-toni]

The one time Shanny drafted a QB in this situation it was Cutler, so I'm reasonably confident he won't pull the trigger on the next Rick mirer.

[benskins26]

I'm by no means a draft expert, nor a fortune teller. The draft is always a gamble, and the top 10 draft picks will certainly shift a great deal between now and draft day. However, look at our biggest areas of need: QB, WR, Interior Oline (RT too most likely), NT, OLB, and possibly CB/FS (though I think the group as a whole is significantly better with LL in there). There are certain "rules" to the draft:
1.) If you have a top 5-10 pick, you take it on a Playmaker/gamechanger- a QB, LT, WR, Passrusher- be it DT or DE, and CB
2.) NEVER pick any Oline player OTHER than LT in the top 10; (really, even in the top 20)
So to reiterate our needs- QB, WR, Interior Oline, NT, OLB, and CB/FS, and assuming we pick in the 8-10 range (not to get off topic, but I agree with previous posters- if we're not going to the playoffs, getting stuck in that 6-10 to 8-8 rut is a killer)

To follow the 2nd rule, NEVER take any Oline player other than LT. And lucky for us, this will be an interior oline rich FA class, so I think we address that need there. But for a 1st round pick, that's out

Sadly, last year was the truly elite NT class. There aren't any guys that I would spend a top 10 pick on at NT. So NT is out

While we certainly need another passrusher/OLB, we did that 2 years ago, and could be construed as a frivolous pick. That being said, there are really only 2 guys who fit that mold that I would take, and again, being in that 8-10 range, we'll most likely miss out on both- Marcel Darius and Robert Quinn. So if we want either, we'll have to trade up, which to trade up for anything other than QB, IMO would be stupid. So OLB is out.

CB is definitely an area of need, but is it our weakest spot? With LL back, the unit as a whole is significantly better. That being said, the only CB out of this class that truly excites me is Patrick Peterson. And he'll be gone by pick 5, so same conundrum as with the OLB/DE position. So CB is out.

That leaves QB and WR.
IMO, there are 2 can't miss WRs in this draft, Green and Jones. While I would have preferred to sign Vjax, and not have to use the pick on WR, with the likely franchise tag (**** you AJ Smith), he appears to be off the table. Green most likely will be gone by our pick, with leaves Julio Jones, which IMO is a safe pick, so that's 1 possibility.

As for the big debate, QB, Luck IMO is the only sure fire guy in this draft. While one of Locker, Newton, or Mallet will certainly be there by our pick, I don't feel comfortable spending that high a pick on any "prospect". If you want a prospect, you look in the 2nd-4th rounds, like at a guy like Christian Ponder. But if we want Luck, we'll have to mortgage the farm. For those saying, "build the lines", etc etc, look at it this way- if we're somehow better next year, and QB is the missing piece, it will take A LOT more to move up from even 14th pick to 1st pick or whatever, than what it will take in our current position. And IMO, it all starts with the QB anyway.

The 3rd option is trade back (easier said than done). Pick up an extra 2nd rounder. Go LB in the first (Bruce Carter would be an EXCELLENT ILB, and eventual replacement for Fletcher, an anchor for our defense for years, and could probably be had around 17-20). Then in the 2nd, take BPA of NT/OL/DB.

So in summation, in order of preference- Trade up by any means necessary and take Luck; Trade down and fill needs; Stand pat and take Julio Jones. Just my 2 cents.

[Mursilis]

I said this in another thread, but there is nothing worse than being really bad but going 5-11, 6-10 or 7-9. If you are going to suck, go big. Go 2-14 or 3-13. It is your best chance to grab a franchise QB. There is nothing worse for a franchise than slowly dying with 7-9 or 8-8 records, drafting 10th through 15th and never being bad enough to grab a game changing franchise player.

Your fear here is vastly overstated. It's not like drafting in the top 5 for most of the past 10 years did the Lions any good, and picking late in the first round hasn't hurt teams like the Pats, Steelers, or Colts. There's plenty of quality in every round, if you've got a nice combo platter of luck and good scouting.

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 08:40 AM ----------

I don't really get some people who talk about looking for a gem in later rounds for a QB. It hardly ever happens. Ever. The situation with Brady is a complete anomaly. For any one Brady there are probably hundreds of other QBs taken in mid to late rounds that do absolutely zero. Or, at best, end up as decent backups or passable starters after some time.

Heck, it happened twice with the same team - Cassell was a 7th round pick. They got a 11-5 season out of him, and then traded him for a 2nd!

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 08:52 AM ----------

Personally, I'm going after Luck. Hard.

Multiple 1st rounders, players etc. Do whatever is necessary.

Even the best QB ever still needs help. Look how long it took P. Manning to get a ring. Dan Marino and Jim Kelly never got one. I'm all for getting a franchise QB - I've said repeatedly it's the most important position on the field - but this isn't basketball. An elite QB without talent around him will get you no better than 8 wins. There is such a thing as paying too much for a player, no matter how elite. This team has a LOT of holes, and we can't afford to be trading a bunch of high picks for one single player with so many other needs.

[Riggo#44]

Here are the teams currently ahead of us in draft order:

1. Carolina (2-12)
2. Denver (3-11)
3. Cincinnati (3-11)
4. Arizona (4-10)
5. Detroit (4-10)
6. Buffalo (4-10)
7. San Francisco (5-9)
8. Dallas (5-9)

The teams in bold are more-than-likely to be looking at a QB in the draft as well. I left Buffalo off due to Ryan Fitzpatrick looking pretty good there...

Considering there are four top QB prospects (Luck, Newton, Mallett and Locker) we will be left with "what's left over." I don't think we can safely assume that we are GOING to take a QB in the 1st round. And the more I read, the less and less I want Ryan Leaf...uh...I mean Mallett.

[pray4surf]

Hes gonna be drafted in the 1st round probably

Agreed, but hopefully not by the Skins.
If it's not Luck, we need to address as many needs as possible.
Luck seems to be a sure thing. If I'm Shanny, following the D5 debacle, I wouldn't want to hitch my wagon on to any other QB in the first round.