Tunisian Revolution and the Middle East

[twa]

The Muslim Brotherhood are moderates?
Compared to Al Qaeda maybe

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

Interesting article on this in the Economist. Tunisia is far from the poorest country in the Arab World, and its people were not particularly oppressed - as long as they didn't say anything political or challenge the status quo of kleptocracy by the ruling family. It's odd that Tunisia would be the one to rise up.

Is it though? Leaving possible military coups out of the equation (and they may very well be a big part in Tunisia), who has the greater ability to overthrow a corrupt but extremely wealthy regime: The poor, uneducated masses living in squalid conditions? Or the educated folk who are able to utilize modern technologies like twitter and youtube and whatever else?

[jpyaks3]

The Muslim Brotherhood are moderates?
Compared to Al Qaeda maybe

Yes, they are. In the 1960's and 1970's no they weren't but since then they have moved significantly towards the middle.

They are very conservative, but they are pretty moderate as a whole. There was a major leadership shake up in the early 1980's and their entire organizational structure changed, they renounced violence and most of their more violent and radical members splintered off. Currently, they are a moderate Islamist non-party (since they aren't allowed to be a party) focused mainly on social works and gaining greater political freedoms in Egypt.

---------- Post added January-25th-2011 at 04:27 AM ----------

Nothing is going to happen in Egypt

I think today is going to tell us a lot about if anything is going to happen in Egypt. There are plans for massive protests across Cairo and Alexandria and from what I have heard from Egyptians and long time ex-pats is that the Tunisian revolution actually changed the status quo a bit. People are a lot more freely denouncing Mubarak and the current government and there is a feeling of unity residual from the Alexandria church bombings which brought about a lot more anti-government rhetoric. Now I am not saying that anything is going to happen but it does seem like there has been a change and I wouldn't rule out something big happening in the near future. Mubarak has kind of backed himself into a corner with this upcoming Presidential election as well so there is quite a lot that can happen and as we saw in Tunisia it can happen pretty quickly.

That said, the Egyptian government has been extremely effective and controlling and quashing dissident and opposition forces, from the Islamic radicals to the left wing of the political spectrum, so more than likely nothing will come of this but the possibility is still there.

[JMS]

I am sorry but I don't really see a situation where an Islamist group that isn't moderate think Muslim Brotherhood not al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya comes to power.

Did you notice that Hezbollah just determined who the next PM or Lebonon will be? Signaling perhaps a historic turning of Lebonon away fromo a western and Saudi Arabian alliance in favor of a more pro Iran and Syria alliance. Not sure Hezbollah's new prominence in Leboonon is directly tied to Tunisia, but I do think it's part of Arab nationalism. I also think it's pretty easy for any popular Arab nationalist movement to be co-oped to work against both the United States and Israel. It's not like either one of us is very popular with the Arab man on the street.

Also I think at least for the United States the biggest risk is an Iran situation where we burned ourselves badly by supporting a dictator over democracy.

Isn't that our history across the middle east? From Morroco, Egypt, Jordan, Iran and Saudi?

If a moderate Islamic party comes to power so be it, look at the AKP in Turkey right now I think anything is better then the situation right now where the government suppresses the ability of moderates from playing a role in the political process to prevent Islamization but instead gives the radical and the violent factions more power because they can see that the political path isn't working so they try another path.

I tend to agree with you. Democracies are messy and we must be willing to accept and work with that messyness. In the long run democracies are much more reliable allies and friends than monarchies and dictators. Although that's going to be a tough sell if one of those new democracies takes a pot shot at Israel and Israel is forced to mop up the floor with them; using US weapons.

---------- Post added January-25th-2011 at 07:58 AM ----------

The Muslim Brotherhood are moderates?
Compared to Al Qaeda maybe

The Muslim Brotherhood are the grandaddies of all radicals in the ME. They are the ones who inspired AQ. They are the ones to killed Anwar Sadat. They are also in favor of Arab unity. That's where Saddam, Nasser(Egypt), and Asad(Syria) got the idea from wasn't it?

---------- Post added January-25th-2011 at 08:02 AM ----------

Interesting article on this in the Economist. Tunisia is far from the poorest country in the Arab World, and its people were not particularly oppressed - as long as they didn't say anything political or challenge the status quo of kleptocracy by the ruling family. It's odd that Tunisia would be the one to rise up.:

It kind of shows you how potentially unstable the entire ME is doesn't it. It if could happen in tunisia as it happenned in Iran before; It could really happen anywhere given the right spark.

[DRSmith]

The Muslim Brotherhood are moderates?
Compared to Al Qaeda maybe

When Al Quieda was threating Coptic Christians in Egypt the Muslim Botherhood offered them protection and went to the Christmas services to make sure they were able to worship in peace

[visionary]

Nothing is going to happen in Egypt

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/...pt=T1&iref=BN1

Thousands protest in Egypt

(CNN) -- People across Egypt took to the streets on Tuesday in demonstrations against corruption and failing economic policies, rallies partly inspired by similar protests that rocked Tunisia this month.

Thousands were protesting in the capital of Cairo, according to the "Front to Defend Egypt Protesters," an alliance of lawyers who helped organize the events.

At first, witnesses said, the police were restrained in Cairo. But later, they said, police fired around a dozen rounds of tear gas on the protesters, and people in the crowd threw the canisters back at the officers.

The group said about 200 demonstrators were in the southern city of Aswan, 2,000 in the eastern city of Ismailiya, and about 3,000 in the northern city of Mahallah.

Protest organizers said they hope to capture the regional momentum for political change set by Tunisians, who 10 days ago forced the collapse of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's 23-year rule.

[jpyaks3]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/...pt=T1&iref=BN1

Thousands protest in Egypt

Hearing estimates of around 50,000 in Cairo and 40,000 in Alexandria, absolutely crazy atmosphere here. People aren't afraid of the police anymore. There are still thousands in Tahrir Square.

Here is a twitter stream

http://tweetchat.com/room/jan25

Here is a sight that is live updating

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/4773.aspx

[visionary]

Hearing estimates of around 50,000 in Cairo and 40,000 in Alexandria, absolutely crazy atmosphere here. People aren't afraid of the police anymore. There are still thousands in Tahrir Square.

Here is a twitter stream

http://tweetchat.com/room/jan25

Here is a sight that is live updating

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/4773.aspx

Are you seeing any yourself where you are?
Curious if you're planning on checking one of the protests out.
Be careful if you are.
You never know what can happen, with either side.

[jpyaks3]

Are you seeing any yourself where you are?
Curious if you're planning on checking one of the protests out.
Be careful if you are.
You never know what can happen, with either side.

I was in Tahrir square all day, just returned home but there are thousands still in there. Streets are on lockdown. The protests were peaceful until the government ran through with a water cannon on top of a troop carrier someone jumped on the roof and ripped it off which just made the protests that much more intense. Then the troops boxed us in shot tear gas. When I left it had been subdued after an attempt to storm the Parliament building was put down with what must have been 30 or 40 rounds of tear gas. Seems like both sides were regrouping for the night.

[twa]

When Al Quieda was threating Coptic Christians in Egypt the Muslim Botherhood offered them protection and went to the Christmas services to make sure they were able to worship in peace

I thought the Muslim Brotherhood was banned in Egypt?

added
They seem so moderate
http://www.businessinsider.com/musli...olution-2011-1

[The Brave Little Toaster Oven]

they can protest all they want...nothing is going to happen in Egypt

[jpyaks3]

I thought the Muslim Brotherhood was banned in Egypt?

added
They seem so moderate
http://www.businessinsider.com/musli...olution-2011-1

This is not a Muslim Brotherhood driven thing, this is an extremely diverse group of Egyptians protesting. Mubarak may try and paint it as a Muslim Brotherhood thing but it wasn't.

---------- Post added January-25th-2011 at 03:01 PM ----------

they can protest all they want...nothing is going to happen in Egypt

I would have said so before today, but I honestly think this is something bigger, these are by far the biggest protests since the Bread Riots over 2 decades ago. This is also occuring all throughout Egypt in enormous numbers.

---------- Post added January-25th-2011 at 03:07 PM ----------

Picture from Tahrir

[Hubbs]

they can protest all they want...nothing is going to happen in Egypt

Why not?

[The Brave Little Toaster Oven]

Why not?

What more can they ask for? They already have free press and are free to do whatever they want unlike most Arab countries.

To be higher up in their military, you cannot have a veiled wife or be conservative. It is a fairly liberal country, I dont see anything happening besides people protesting asking for better rights/services...but other than that, I dont know what else could happen

[jpyaks3]

What more can they ask for? They already have free press and are free to do whatever they want unlike most Arab countries.

To be higher up in their military, you cannot have a veiled wife or be conservative. It is a fairly liberal country, I dont see anything happening besides people protesting asking for better rights/services...but other than that, I dont know what else could happen

Freedom. Egypt is a police state, its elite have become extremely wealthy while everyone else has suffered. There is no free press, there is plenty to ask for. Free and fair elections would probably be a good starting point.