Prediction: The 2011 Skins Offense Will Perform Above Average in the Red Zone

[Oldfan]

..

John Beck appears to be more mobile and more accurate than Rex Grossman. I’m projecting him to be our QB. His strength will be running a WCO ball control game. With Beck at QB, we should be an above-average Red Zone team.

The ZBS disadvantage: A power blocking scheme, with bigger O-linemen would be better in the RZ. Mike Shanahan’s Broncos were not a great RZ team.

The John Beck disadvantage: Beck’s low release point will hurt when he stays in the pocket.

The John Beck advantages: Beck’s mobility is a major plus in the RZ as are his sharp, accurate passes. In other words, the same advantages that will enable him to play the ball control game well, will apply even more in the compressed area of the RZ.

The Shanahan advantage: Coaching experience is a major advantage when game planning for the RZ. But, don’t expect the Shanahans to show much in the preseason.

The Cooley-Davis advantage: The versatility of these two, blocking and receiving, should be a big plus in the RZ.

Note: We should not be relying heavily on Red Zone stats which can be deceptive. When a team already has a lead, as the Skins did against the Steelers and Colts, it’s smart to be conservative on third downs, not making stupid mistakes is a good thing in the RZ, but the conservative call doesn’t help the RZ stats.

The bottom line: The Skins should be above average in the RZ with John Beck at QB.

[illone]

Assuming John Beck starts are we?

[WyomingRedskin]

I hope you are right. I think the zone blocking scheme hurting as down at the goal line is an important point. I would assume that puts at a big disadvantage in running the ball in short yardage and goal line situations. We just don't have the ability to really clobber the defense and push them around since we have smaller lineman. I wish in these preseason games we were more aggressive with our play calling down at the goal line.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

That's a heck of a turnaround your predicting Of man from the worst red zone scoring this team has had in the last 10 years through year 1; to 'above average' in year 2.

I remain to be convinced.

Hail.

[WyomingRedskin]

Assuming John Beck starts are we?

Is that not a safe assumption? Evidence at this point seems to suggest he may be.

[RandyHolt]

Pass the Kool Aid! Compared to the past 10 years, one could surmise blindly that the only way to go is up. Without a threat at wideout in the redzone, we would remain near the bottom of the league. I think it comes down to Jabar. Donte could be a player as well.

The biggest thing is we have upgraded our WR's. That gives me optimism but to predict we will be above average is ignoring Beck and his mere 5 starts and 7 fumbles under his belt. Do we have anyone to throw the end zone fade too?

[jflow78]

Who are you and what did you do with the REAL Oldfan?

Nah, just kidding. I agree with all of what you said. (EDIT: Beck wasn't talking about the RZ, he was just giving an example of a poor throw he made) (BTW, is Austin the most unflashy consistently productive WR we've ever had?).

Anyway, I've been waiting for someone who has Tivo to respond to this, but did any of you notice if the Colts were playing their safeties deep? Because that would explain Beck's lack of longer passes. Everyone has been complaining about it, but it MIGHT have been the proper read, and from what I remember, the safeties were deep nearly the entire game, but I don't have a recording to go back and check.

If they were covering the deep ball, then Beck's discipline in sticking to the shorter/intermediate routes is another strength, instead of compulsively throwing deep just because we haven't done it in a while.

[DJD2]

How are you defining "above average'?

Total points scored?

Scoring efficiency?

TD's vs. FG's?

Turnovers?

Penalties?

Also, how can you say you can't rely heavily on stats when stats are what is used to say a team is "above average". Average by its nature is average of measurable statistics. Otherwise it is subjective.

[Oldfan]

That's a heck of a turnaround your predicting Of man from the worst red zone scoring this team has had in the last 10 years through year 1; to 'above average' in year 2.

I remain to be convinced.

Hail.

On August 29 last year, I predicted that McNabb would come up short in the RZ and recommended a two-QB scheme with either Grossman or Beck replacing Donovan.

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthre...terback-scheme

[SpringfieldSkins]

I sure hope you're right. Preseason hasn't really seemed to indicate that there is any departure from the past though.

[Fight for ole DC]

Hankerson could be a big-body RZ threat we've lacked for years. His propensity to drop passes could be minimized in the RZ. His drops seem to be caused by a habit of turning to look for running room before he catches the ball. In the RZ, running after the catch is less of a factor so Hankerson's bad habit of turning his head before the catch could be eliminated.

Any thoughts?

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

On August 29 last year, I predicted that McNabb would come up short in the RZ and recommended a two-QB scheme with either Grossman or Beck replacing Donovan.

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthre...terback-scheme

I remember it well. But I still remain to be convinced going forward that the OC can have such a turnaround, regardless of QB.

Hail.

[Oldfan]

Pass the Kool Aid! Compared to the past 10 years, one could surmise blindly that the only way to go is up. Without a threat at wideout in the redzone, we would remain near the bottom of the league. I think it comes down to Jabar. Donte could be a player as well.

The biggest thing is we have upgraded our WR's. That gives me optimism but to predict we will be above average is ignoring Beck and his mere 5 starts and 7 fumbles under his belt. Do we have anyone to throw the end zone fade too?

Mike Shanahan didn't care about John Beck' stats produced with other teams and other schemes. I don't either.

Fades are overused. I'd rather see Davis and Cooley posting up smaller DBs like power forwards in basketball.

---------- Post added August-20th-2011 at 10:50 AM ----------

How are you defining "above average'?

Total points scored?

Scoring efficiency?

TD's vs. FG's?

Turnovers?

Penalties?

Also, how can you say you can't rely heavily on stats when stats are what is used to say a team is "above average". Average by its nature is average of measurable statistics. Otherwise it is subjective.

The RZ success percentage is the applicable stat. But, I don't rely on ANY football stat entirely to make my judgments. Sure, my judgments are subjective, but there's no choice.

---------- Post added August-20th-2011 at 10:58 AM ----------

Hankerson could be a big-body RZ threat we've lacked for years. His propensity to drop passes could be minimized in the RZ. His drops seem to be caused by a habit of turning to look for running room before he catches the ball. In the RZ, running after the catch is less of a factor so Hankerson's bad habit of turning his head before the catch could be eliminated.

Any thoughts?

I don't know what to think of Hankerson. I've never seen a player like that. My guess is that he isn't going to be of much help. I hope I'm wrong.

---------- Post added August-20th-2011 at 11:03 AM ----------

Who are you and what did you do with the REAL Oldfan?

Nah, just kidding. I agree with all of what you said. (EDIT: Beck wasn't talking about the RZ, he was just giving an example of a poor throw he made) (BTW, is Austin the most unflashy consistently productive WR we've ever had?).

Anyway, I've been waiting for someone who has Tivo to respond to this, but did any of you notice if the Colts were playing their safeties deep? Because that would explain Beck's lack of longer passes. Everyone has been complaining about it, but it MIGHT have been the proper read, and from what I remember, the safeties were deep nearly the entire game, but I don't have a recording to go back and check.

If they were covering the deep ball, then Beck's discipline in sticking to the shorter/intermediate routes is another strength, instead of compulsively throwing deep just because we haven't done it in a while.

All I can tell you is that the Colts have had the reputation of not letting themselves get beat deep since Dungy went to Indianapolis. You need to be able the complete the short-to-intermediate passes, play ball control, and keep Peyton off the field to beat them.

[Ashburn Dave]

The ZBS is suited more between the 20's.

The disadvantage of the ZBS in the redzone is that the number of defenders increases at the point of attack which results in a higher chance of a break down.

[illone]

Is that not a safe assumption? Evidence at this point seems to suggest he may be.

What evidence is that?