Top 7 reasons Redskins will win NFC East. Why the "Dream Team" cluster**** Eagles won't.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Barring critical additional injuries, I predict the Redskins will win the NFC East this year.


Here are seven reasons why:

1. Rex Grossman and Will Montgomery
2. Tim Hightower and Jabar Gaffney
3. Barry Cofield, Stephen Bowen and Ryan Kerrigan
4. Kyle Shanahan
5. Mike Shanahan
6. Bruce Allen, Scott Campbell and the NFL lockout
7. The "Dream Team" Cluster****: 2011 Philadelphia Eagles

#1 Rex Grossman and Will Montgomery


I've banged the drumb plenty for Rex Grossman. He's a far better QB than almost anyone has given him credit for being. For more, see:

• 12/25/10: Projecting NFL QBs from collegiate sophomore seasons: Rex Grossman > Brees > Luck > P. Manning > Roethlisberger > Rodgers > McNabb > Campbell
• 8/14/11: 5 NFL Secrets: The big lie about Grossman. Redskins have top 5 receivers by position in NFL. Grossman's best 5 years are in front of him. Median age of 13 out of last 24 NFL MVP QBs is 33. Super Bowl winning QBs are system QBs.
• 8/21/11: Preseason breakdown: Grossman’s Game 1 vs Beck’s Game 2. Sex Cannon dominates 13-4 Steelers. Admiral Checkdown rolls over 4-18 Colts. Mike and Kyle Shanahan’s Jedi mind tricks confuse everyone.
• 8/21/11: Rex Grossman, 2006, Chicago Bears: What Really Happened
• 8/28/11: Shanahan's Jedi Mind Tricks II: Sex Cannon in dead heat with Admiral Checkdown? Shanahan deserves Coach of the Year, if not an Oscar

I'm including Will Montgomery as a critical variable, for two reasons:

1. Grossman lives on throwing between the numbers. This means he is highly dependent on his interior OL opening up passing lanes over the middle, and the most critical player for opening interior passing lanes (by frequency) is the center. The guards are also important.
2. Grossman needs to be able to step up in the pocket and step into his throws. This means that the center needs to hold his ground. It's not enough to avoid sacks: he needs to avoid being pushed back. Grossman is best throwing from the gun, but otherwise mostly a pure pocket QB. He can roll out, but he's no threat to run.

The interior OL starters right now are very strong by Redskin standards, but there is no depth whatsoever. The Redskins have no backup guards on the roster. They have an awful player, Erik Cook, backing up Montgomery at center. See my thread, C/G Eric Olsen must be on 53-man roster in place of Erik Cook.

For Grossman to succeed, he needs his interior OL starters to remain healthy, and he needs great play by Will Montgomery. Assuming good OL health, I expect Grossman to put up a career year, and part of the credit will have to go to Montgomery. Will Montgomery is much stronger than Casey Rabach and is massive upgrade.


#2 Tim Hightower and Jabar Gaffney

I expect Hightower to have a fantastic year running the ball. In addition, he offers superb pass protection, which looks to my eyes in the class of Portis. Finally, he offers a better pass catching option at starting RB since maybe Joe Washington in the early 1980s. This makes him a triple threat and will be a critical reason why the Redskins offense succeeds.

Another reason will be the balance of options provided by the top 5 receivers: Moss, Gaffney, Armstrong, Cooley and Hightower. A 3-WR set with Moss, Gaffney and Armstrong is far more powerful than anything the Redskins have had from three receivers since Monk, Clark and Sanders. Gaffney offers crisp route running to complement Armstrong's speed and ability to get open deep. This allows the receivers to play to their strengths. You'll see lots of combination routes with Armstrong deep and Moss or Gaffney underneath. Lots of options for Grossman, and more when Austin is on the field.


#3 Barry Cofield, Stephen Bowen and Ryan Kerrigan

Last year, the Redskins struggled and failed to stop the run. They also struggled to put pressure on the opposing QB. The Redskins will never crawl out of the NFC East cellar until they stop the run and put pressure on opposing QBs.

Cofield, Bowen and Kerrigan will make a huge difference. They would have done even better with help from Jarvis Jenkins, but so it goes. If the Redskins beat the Giants this year, these guys will play key roles. If the Giants run all over the Redskins, and if Manning has time to throw, these guys will have disappointed. I expect them to succeed.


#4 Kyle Shanahan

Kyle Shanahan is weirdly underrated by Redskin fans. He gets the nepotism tag by stupid media hacks, but as I posted in response, that's nonsense.

Shanahan is one of the best OCs in the NFL, and also shows talent developing QBs and WRs. His passing offense is a marvel of design. The design has hypnotized Cooley into a remarkably revealing quote:

“This is the first time in my career that an offense has fit so much that I’ve been willing to study it,” he said. “I’ve been willing to know it as thoroughly as I do. It’s exciting. It’s fun. It makes sense.

“A lot of offenses have contradictions. Instead, this offense has answers. It’s neat to see the way we get everyone involved. It’s the first time I care what we’re doing on the line. I care what our quarterback’s reads are. I care about other positions besides mine.”

When Grossman and Hightower blow the lid off the NFC East with easily the most high-octane offense in the division, much of the credit should go directly to Kyle Shanahan.


#5 Mike Shanahan

Forests have been cut down to cover the remarkable cultural transformation that Mike Shanahan has achieved this offseason with the Redskins. I am in full agreement, and Mike Shanahan is the most obvious and deserving reason that the Redskins will win the division.

Let me illustrate with more Cooley quotes:

“Even back to Joe [Gibbs], I remember the Redskins’ Welcome Home luncheon I was at, Joe got up towards the end and said ‘Hey, I don’t know what’s going to happen this week. No one knows. We’re going to go see what happens,’” Cooley recalled. “And since then I’ve kind of always felt like, ‘Well, it’s the first game. Let’s go see what’s going to happen.’ I fully expect to win, and I fully expect this team to play well. We’re not going to go see what happens this week. Guys expect to win. As a group, we spent the time, and I’ve never seen a more confident group of guys or a group of guys that play as well together as well as we have this offseason.”

Cooley, who last season recorded a career-high 77 catches for 849 yards and three touchdowns, attributed that improved confidence and focus to the tone set by Shanahan and his staff.

“It’s the preparation; it’s so business-like,” Cooley declared. “The staff is extremely demanding on its players on knowing their responsibilities and knowing their assignments and eliminating all mental errors, playing fast. If you’re able to be part of our practice for a whole practice now, it’s so much faster. We’re getting in and out of the huddle, and it’s been impressive for me to watch, and I really have watched from a coach’s standpoint. It’s been much better than I’ve ever known.”

#6 Bruce Allen, Scott Campbell and the NFL lockout

Bruce Allen has turned in the most masterful Redskin offseason by a GM since Bobby Beathard in 1981. The team was bereft of talent, short of draft picks and facing a player lockout, then found itself at spending parity with much of the league due to minimum spending requirements enacted by the new CBA. The latter threatened to neutralize one Redskin advantage under Snyder, the willingness to spend cash for players.

The draft was a tour de force, starting from weakness, coming up with 12 picks, and avoiding the temptation to pick a QB high. This won't equal the 1981 draft (what could?), but set the team on a great direction with two high-impact defensive players (Kerrigan, Jenkins), many candidates to help the team depth (Roy Helu, Brandyn Thompson, Markus White, DeJon Gomes, Niles Paul, Chris Nield, Evan Royster), and finally that boom/bust wildcard, Hankerson. This was followed by smart free agent acquisitions (Cofield, Bowen, Atogwe, Chester, Wilson, Fox, Rocca), smart retentions (Grossman, Moss, J. Brown), a nice UDFA (Willie Smith), and then the highway robbery trades for Hightower and Gaffney. That's six (!) starters who weren't even on the team last year, plus 10 new depth guys. All of them are under 30, and most are under 25.

This is an all-star performance by Bruce Allen, together with Mike Shanahan. They couldn't have pulled it off without the key leadership of Scott Campbell, director of player personnel. Jim Haslett credits Campbell directly for Jenkins and other defensive players:

"Scott Campbell [Redskins director of player personnel] did a great job and his staff of targeting the guys that fit this defense," Haslett said. "He's ideal for it. He's a big human being. He's very coachable. He likes to work.

Finally, Allen, Shanahan and Campbell pulled off this coup in very challenging conditions, with the NFL lockout followed by the new CBA and short offseason. We'll see a lot of other teams in turmoil this year as a result of these factors. Much like in the strike-shortened seasons of 1982 and 1987, the Redskins organization rose to the challenge when other teams failed.


#7 The "Dream Team" Cluster****, the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles

I was going to post an entire thread on this topic, and may do so as I have time.

Suffice it to say, the Eagles are massively overrated and have critical problems across the board. They have no center and no RG, unless you count the guy they picked up off waivers on Sept. 3 and who will START game 1 at RG!. Their OL coach was pulled out of retirement from the Colts, is 69 years old, and rides around on a scooter due to poor health. Vick is being hit every other drop-back. Their defensive coordinator is their failed OL coach, "promoted" to defensive coordinator. They have 3 all-star CBs and no LBs, unless you count "Fredo" Matthews.

This is a team only Vinny could create, and he essentially did. The director of pro personnel (the guy who scouts the rest of the NFL) is Louis Riddick, who previously held the same position with the Redskins under Cerrato. He's a complete clown. That the Eagles have put him in such a position again, and allowed him to chase after star skill players while ignoring the OL and LBs, is classic Vinnyball.

Dream Team my ass. Karma's got #7 on speed dial.

[Art]

I'd say the Eagles sorry defense might help us too .

Boy, they are soft at linebacker. They will still beat the Rams most likely, but, wow.

[ljs]

Thank you Steven Jackson for that 47 yd TD run, first play of the game. Stupid Iggles.

[Art]

The Eagles also appear incapable of blocking.

[Jumbo]

Iggles O-line weaknesses are showing early---but I will keep further game comments in the ATN gameday thread. Hoping Rams get ASF's premise off to a good start.

[braindx]

Sounds good to me.

Eagles do have a lot of Q's though... OL, LBs, possibly safety. We'll see how it turns out.

[Brooklynskinsfan]

great thread Love your insight and documentation

[Jumbo]

oops wrong thread sorry

[Coolio47]

Eagles aren't looking so hot right now. You may be onto something.

[SkinsHokieFan]

What an awesome thread. Love the facts, documentation, etc.

I am still not sold on Grossman. I am still not sure if this O can be consistant, something that has not happened since 1999.

But this is not unrealistic at all

Now ASF, tell me why the Cowboys and Giants won't win the NFC East

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Now ASF, tell me why the Cowboys and Giants won't win the NFC East

New York Giants

The Giants won't win the East for three reasons:

1. Holes on defense: injuries at CB, DL & LB, loss of Cofield
2. Loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss (TE)
3. Eli Manning

The Giants have suffered huge losses on defense due primarily to injuries, but also losing Cofield to the Redskins. Given how good Cofield is, I have to assume that the Giants will miss him more than they admit. Add the injuries at CB, DL and LB, and this very strong defense enters the season on very shaky ground.

On offense, Manning will miss Steve Smith and Kevin Boss, and his OL is a work in progress. Looking at the loss of Smith, here's what I posted on Sept. 6:

Everyone has been focusing on the injuries to the Giants defense, as they should be. The Giants are also missing two key contributors on offense this year: Steve Smith (WR) and Kevin Boss (TE).

Steve Smith is a big loss. He was out for the last 8 games last year (including both Redskins games). The Redskins had their own problems, notably the Giants DL. But it's worth noting the difference between the Giants offense, with and without Smith.

• In 8 games with Smith, the Giants put up a median of 29.5 points, with 24.5 first downs. Opponents scored a median of 19 points, with 14 first downs. The Giants were 6-2 in those games.
• In 8 games without Smith, the Giants scored a median of 20.5 points, with 18.5 first downs. Opponents scored a median of 23.5 points, with 19 first downs. The Giants were 4-4 in those games, and 2-4 in games not involving the Redskins.

That may not be all due to the loss of Steve Smith, but the differences are stark. Add the loss of Boss, and the Giants offense will have a much harder time moving the chains this year. They've lost 2 out of 5 of Manning's top targets, which makes it that much harder for the other 3 to produce. They've done nothing to replace Smith and Boss either.

All this puts great pressure on Eli Manning, and Manning has shown himself to be a very ordinary QB, aside from 2008. He's increasingly prone to INTs (25 in 2010), and I don't see how he's going to do better in 2011.

I doubt the Giants implode: they're too strong an organization. But, a game within 8-8 seems likely.


Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys could finish anywhere from first to fourth. I really don't have a strong read on them, but there are enough negatives that I assume the negatives will outweigh the positives.

Here are some negatives:

1. Rob Ryan, defensive coodinator
2. Cowboys OL
3. Tony Romo

The Cowboys are starting over with Rob Ryan as DC, and generally a new scheme requires a year of transition to take root. Some outstanding DCs can do it faster, but Rob Ryan's not in that class.

Cowboys OL is a work in progress, with many new parts. Gurode is gone. From right to left, they're starting Tyron Smith, Kyle Kosier, Phil Costa and Bill Nagy. Maybe they can get magic from those four guys, but that would be surprising. If the OL struggles, that weakens potential strengths at TE, WR and QB.

Tony Romo is a streaky QB. He's too good to be awful, but like Eli Manning, I see him taking on too much due to weakness on defense. The patchwork OL will probably force some bad decisions, so you'll see bad games and bad plays intermixed with ESPN highlights when Romo connects with Austin and Bryant at WR and Whitten at TE.

There's a lot of upside here, and Jason Garrett seems to have the respect of his team. Garrett did put on a nice run late in 2010. Somehow Jerry Jones will **** things up, as he always does, if the other negative factors aren't enough.


I see the Redskins as the most complete and disciplined team in the division from a team culture and coaching view, and I figure they'll find ways to win much like the Gibbs I teams did. With the Giants and Cowboys, not so much this year. In the end, I think that's the difference that will matter in putting the Redskins over the top.

In order to win the division, the Redskins will have to be dominant through the first 11 games. The last 5 games are brutal. If the Skins aren't in first place after 11 games, they aren't going to win the division. They need a fast start and a strong middle. If they do that and have a 2 game lead after 11, they might survive the last 5 games and finish on top.

My prediction is admittedly homerish. I'm basically assuming that the Skins see most of their upside, and little of their downside risks (esp. injuries), and meanwhile their rivals see more of their downside. I have some reasons for thinking that this might happen, but it's not quite a neutral view.

In sum:

• Eagles lose due to lack of talent on OL and LB, plus DC weakness, with Vick playing hot and cold, lots of hits, possible injuries
• Giants lose due to missing too many starters from 2010
• Cowboys lose due to being in transition (DC) and OL weakness creating Romo mistakes
• Redskins win due to coaching, Grossman/Hightower, and lack of additional key injuries to starters

[SpringfieldSkins]

I thoroughly enjoy your posts ASF.

I will admit though, I find it mildly amusing that you list Manning and Romo as reasons that the Giants and Cowboys won't win the NFCE. In your OP, you listed Rex Grossman as a reason that the Redskins will win the NFCE. Possibly the most wonderfully enjoyable kool-aid there is on this board.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I thoroughly enjoy your posts ASF.

I will admit though, I find it mildly amusing that you list Manning and Romo as reasons that the Giants and Cowboys won't win the NFCE. In your OP, you listed Rex Grossman as a reason that the Redskins will win the NFCE. Possibly the most wonderfully enjoyable kool-aid there is on this board.

I cheerfully agree. I don't throw out many homerish predictions, but now feels like the right time. I'm just not sold on any of the other teams, and the conditions seem right for a big run by the Redskins. My knocks on Romo and Manning stem from my expectation that they will face more pressure than Grossman will. I'm not stating that Grossman is better than them, but rather he's surrounded by more talent and a seriously underrated system and offensive coordinator.

[jflow78]

Man, the Rams are pretty much giving this game to the Eagles right now. They fumbled the ball and the Eagles returned it for a TD, they've dropped 6 passes, all which would have gone for a 1st down, they had one drive where they had the Eagles stopped, then had 5 straight penalties that gave the Eagles a TD, they missed a FG, they had the ball at the Eagles' 1 and then committed a false-start penalty and tried to pass 3 straight plays (when they've been running up the middle like crazy) and failed to get the TD.

This is pathetic.

The positive, the Eagles are weak in every spot we thought they would be. They can't cover the middle or flats, they can't stop people from running up the middle, and their OL can't stop the Rams from getting plenty of pressure on Vick. In fact, so far, the only time the Rams DON'T get pressure on Vick is when they only rush 3.

[jgbkab1]

Actually after watching the teams that we played in the preseason, I think we may be overestimating the talent of this team. Pitt and Indy got walloped and Balt looked really good. Tampa's second string manhandled us and they're struggling against the Lions. I think this season is a toss up.