Romney/Ryan Lose 2012 Election Thread

[Predicto]

This is a picture of Dean Chambers, the guy who produces the unskewed polls website from his home in Duffield, Virginia (pop. 91). Somehow, it seemed fitting to post it here.

[twa]

Speaking of polls, this is kind of odd...anyone want to explain to us small town folk?

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/0...ng-state-lead/

Can Mitt Romney have such a huge lead in non-swing states that he can be within two points of Barack Obama nationally — but be behind in swing states by eleven? So says the Washington Post today in their curiously schizophrenic report:

..
I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

[Predicto]

Speaking of polls, this is kind of odd...anyone want to explain to us small town folk?

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/0...ng-state-lead/

Can Mitt Romney have such a huge lead in non-swing states that he can be within two points of Barack Obama nationally — but be behind in swing states by eleven? So says the Washington Post today in their curiously schizophrenic report:

..
I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

Because he is winning by at least 29 across the entire Southeast and plains states, I suppose.

[RedskinsFan44]

Speaking of polls, this is kind of odd...anyone want to explain to us small town folk?

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/0...ng-state-lead/

Can Mitt Romney have such a huge lead in non-swing states that he can be within two points of Barack Obama nationally — but be behind in swing states by eleven? So says the Washington Post today in their curiously schizophrenic report:

..
I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

Because if you look at the averages of the polls Obama is up by more than 2% nationally 3.5%, and does not have a "huge" lead in the swing states, typically about 5%. Your major population states for the most part are not swing states, FL is and it is Obama +3%. The swing states are where the campaign is being played out, and Obama is running a more effective campaign. Or more honestly, Romney continuously screws up.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

[twa]

Because if you look at the averages of the polls ]

This is their own polls, not a average of other polls

[Larry]

Speaking of polls, this is kind of odd...anyone want to explain to us small town folk?

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/0...ng-state-lead/

Can Mitt Romney have such a huge lead in non-swing states that he can be within two points of Barack Obama nationally — but be behind in swing states by eleven? So says the Washington Post today in their curiously schizophrenic report:

..
I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

It's easily possible.

Imagine if Romney gets 95% of the vote in Texas, 40% in California, and 45% everywhere else, just to make up a really goofball hypothetical.

[twa]

A lot of things are possible...hell even the unskewed site could be right

[zoony]

He will get 95% of Utah and Tennessee

[AsburySkinsFan]

I love it. Faux has now not only caused the complete and total distrust of journalists, the UN, and government, now they have caused the very a-political polling firms to be politicized and distrusted. Is it any wonder that when I distrust GOPers as a default?

[RedskinsFan44]

This is their own polls, not a average of other polls

They sampled 813 likely voters nationally, I am assuming the swing state stat was a subsample of that. 813 had a margin of error of 4%, your margin of error for a smaller sample would be more.

813 is a small sample size, individual state polls are usually a minimum of 500.

Thanks for the mental exercise.

---------- Post added October-1st-2012 at 10:35 PM ----------

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/...161.html?hp=r6

"If Obama wins, let me tell you what it's the end of: The Republican Party," Limbaugh said. "There's gonna be a third party that's gonna be oriented toward conservatism.... I know if Obama wins, the Republican Party is gonna try to maneuver things so conservatives get blamed."

Following an Obama victory, the Brooks and the Noonans might argue that the conservative base dragged the party too-far to the right ("Reagan wouldn't recognize these Republicans!") while the Limbaughs and the Malkins might argue that the so-called establishmentarians were too cautious -- too mainstream, even ("It's time to take the party back!").

This probably deserves its own thread, but I wonder about the fallout for the Republican Party should Romney lose. Inevitably the pundits like Hannity and Limbaugh will do the same as they did to McCain and say he lost because he is a RINO, despite their supporting him ( or at least not speaking out against him) during the primaries. I suspect that a real break will not happen, but who ends up taking the lead is interesting.

[twa]

They sampled 813 likely voters nationally, I am assuming the swing state stat was a subsample of that. .

Separate polls

[Buford]

Limbaugh is on his Rx's again. If anything, people are going to figure out that the GOP he wants is getting smaller and smaller. You can't be the party of so few and expect the rest to vote for you. Let the Tea Party go Jihad on the GOP and get a handful of extremists elected. If you don't make your tent bigger, the Moderate and Progressive will always side with the more Liberal when given a choice.

[Predicto]

Massive LOLs

http://www.slate.com/articles/video/...e_fights_.html

[Jumbo]

Massive LOLs

http://www.slate.com/articles/video/...e_fights_.html

Brilliant!

[visionary]

Massive LOLs

http://www.slate.com/articles/video/...e_fights_.html

That was pretty funny. Where are the other videos?
I think I saw this mentioned on twitter this morning.