Romney/Ryan Lose 2012 Election Thread

[greenspandan]

christie and rubio are the only two legitimate contenders on the GOP side at the moment, but the eventual nominee is probably someone who's not currently in the conversation. yes, it always surprises people how quickly presidential candidates emerge, especially from the non-incumbant party: virtually NOBODY thought Obama had a shot at the 2008 nomination back in 2004, for example. even the biggest Obama boosters (the ones who were blown away by his '04 DNC speech) were thinking 2012 or 2016 at the earliest.

we all assumed Romney was the front runner for the GOP nomination from more or less 2008 on, and he ended up getting it, but that's actually a bit unusual. it's to the GOP's shame that he was the only even remotely credible contender they could come up with in 4 years. normally, the guy that catches on is someone that's a little bit of an up-and-comer and enough of an unknown factor that people can fantasize a bit -- project what they want onto what he has shown, and not have there be too much of a disconnect. Romney had all kinds of problems in that department. too much of a record. too many contradictions.

which brings up an interesting point: i think history (or at least recent history) shows that serious political experience is generally a detrement to Presidential aspirations, for better or worse. compare the relative political experience levels of obama, gw bush, clinton, and reagan to their opponents and i think it's a bit lopsided in favor of the losers of those elections!

[Rdskns2000]

Aren't the GOP going to try even harder and send up Bobby Jindal and/or Marco Rubio—hey we're NOT the party of rich white guys. REALLY.

I think it's a lock that there will be hispanic on both parties tickets. Dems probably veep and same thing for the Repubs unless Marco Rubio gets the nomination. Personally, I think Marco should run for governor first and get executive experience. We already did the Senator with Obama.

[greenspandan]

We already did the Senator with Obama.

and in most peoples' opinion, that worked well enough for him to trounce his opponent.

like i said -- the more experience a guy has, the harder it is for him to get elected POTUS.

[Rdskns2000]

christie and rubio are the only two legitimate contenders on the GOP side at the moment, but the eventual nominee is probably someone who's not currently in the conversation. yes, it always surprises people how quickly presidential candidates emerge, especially from the non-incumbant party: virtually NOBODY thought Obama had a shot at the 2008 nomination back in 2004, for example. even the biggest Obama boosters (the ones who were blown away by his '04 DNC speech) were thinking 2012 or 2016 at the earliest.

we all assumed Romney was the front runner for the GOP nomination from more or less 2008 on, and he ended up getting it, but that's actually a bit unusual. it's to the GOP's shame that he was the only even remotely credible contender they could come up with in 4 years. normally, the guy that catches on is someone that's a little bit of an up-and-comer and enough of an unknown factor that people can fantasize a bit -- project what they want onto what he has shown, and not have there be too much of a disconnect. Romney had all kinds of problems in that department. too much of a record. too many contradictions.

which brings up an interesting point: i think history (or at least recent history) shows that serious political experience is generally a detrement to Presidential aspirations, for better or worse. compare the relative political experience levels of obama, gw bush, clinton, and reagan to their opponents and i think it's a bit lopsided in favor of the losers of those elections!

Reagan, Bush Jr, Clinton had executive experience since they were governors. Papa Bush was probably the most experience person to hold the office. Obama had little.


The modern GOP has a history of giving the nomination to the next guy.

80- Reagan- he was the runner up in 76
88- Bush- he was the runner up in 80
96- Dole- he was the runner up in 88
08- Mccain- he was the runner up in 00
12- Romney- he was the runner up in 08

Only time they didn't go with the next runner up was Bush Jr in 00.


Odds are the Republicans will nominate someone sensible with a chance like Christie or Rubio, though I think Marco is too green to be president. Or the alternative; the right wingers nominate someone unelectable at the national level. This generation's Barry Goldwater.

Either way; Hillary is the prohibitive favorite.

---------- Post added March-14th-2013 at 12:49 AM ----------

and in most peoples' opinion, that worked well enough for him to trounce his opponent.

like i said -- the more experience a guy has, the harder it is for him to get elected POTUS.

Obama also had no competition. In 2008, given the Bush fatigue and then the crash; no Republican was going to win. Any candidate the Dems would've had would've won in 2008. In 2012, Obama was beatable but he had no electable opposition.

[Burgold]

Seems to me that the Republicans have four contenders at the moment...

Jeb Bush, who they really want to like. Marco Rubio, who they like because he is charismatic and they believe that will get the Latino vote, Ryan, who's next in line, or Rand Paul who's the champion of Austerity.

I see Paul being the VOP and Rubio being the candidate right now. The last two go arounds, the Republicans chose as their candidate someone they thought looked moderate and was electable, but that they didn't like. Their VP candidate was their true Presidential candidate. They believed in Palin and Ryan more than they believed in McCain and Romney.

Obvious problem with this strategy is that if you don't like your face in the mirror why should you expect others too?

[Elessar78]

Well the GOP just snubbed Christie at CPAC (yet D. Trump is there). Wouldn't be surprised if he ran as an independent.

Scott Walker is already publicly taking down Jeb Bush by highlighting that if you didn't know his last name, he'd be a great candidate. But that he IS a Bush, and Bush was no where near the last RNC.

So we're 3 years away and they're all taking each other down. You'll know Christie is running for POTUS if you start seeing him slim down. Sounds glib, but I don't think I'm wrong.

I want them to run Rubio. Do people think Hispanics will forget decades of anti-them policy because the GOP throws someone with brown skin in front of them? "Oh, they're different now."

[Burgold]

I want them to run Rubio. Do people think Hispanics will forget decades of anti-them policy because the GOP throws someone with brown skin in front of them? "Oh, they're different now."

You got to remember that many Republicans seem to believe that the only reason any African American voted for Obama at all was the color of his skin. That's one of the major reasons they are pushing Rubio at this point.

[Elessar78]

You got to remember that many Republicans seem to believe that the only reason any African American voted for Obama at all was the color of his skin. That's one of the major reasons they are pushing Rubio at this point.

So they've mis-identified the problem? Fantastic!

[Larry]

You got to remember that many Republicans seem to believe that the only reason any African American voted for Obama at all was the color of his skin. That's one of the major reasons they are pushing Rubio at this point.

I also believe that they figured that Sarah Palin would pull disgruntled Hillary supporters because of her gender.

But then, the fact that the GOP isn't dead and buried is a testimony to the fact that it's possible to get people to vote against their best interests. A lot of people.

[deejaydana]

You got to remember that many Republicans seem to believe that the only reason any African American voted for Obama at all was the color of his skin. That's one of the major reasons they are pushing Rubio at this point.

This may be in part true, in fact with older R voters, it likely is the case but you'll also never find a more monolithic voting block than the African American voters. Many will readily admit to voting because of skin color.

[greenspandan]

Reagan, Bush Jr, Clinton had executive experience since they were governors. Papa Bush was probably the most experience person to hold the office. Obama had little.

i didn't say they had NO experience. i said they all had less experience than their opponents.

Obama also had no competition. In 2008, given the Bush fatigue and then the crash; no Republican was going to win. Any candidate the Dems would've had would've won in 2008. In 2012, Obama was beatable but he had no electable opposition.

i agree with all this, although i do think Obama deserves credit for running two exceptional campaigns.

[twa]

But then, the fact that the GOP isn't dead and buried is a testimony to the fact that it's possible to get people to vote against their best interests. A lot of people.

That used to be a noble trait, before we became self absorbed.
But it is always nice to see someone else determine what our self interest is.......Baaaaa

tick tock.........
http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.c...-go-broke.html

[mjah]

[...] i do think Obama deserves credit for running two exceptional campaigns.

It has been fascinating to watch Obama get underestimated over and over again for years now, and to watch those underestimating him learn nothing each time they turn out to be wrong.

I just tried to make a list of each time it has happened. It was going to take too long. I gave up. His reelection campaign is just one of the latest examples.

At this point, underestimating Obama makes a person look Dick Morris / Karl Rove bad. It's just a flat out failure to learn from history.

[...Wondering who will inevitably mistake this for a claim that the guy is somehow unassailable...]

[Rdskns2000]

i didn't say they had NO experience. i said they all had less experience than their opponents.



i agree with all this, although i do think Obama deserves credit for running two exceptional campaigns.

Not Deny Obama ran a great campaign, but 2008 was going to be Democratic no matter who was the nominee. Obama could've been beaten last year but he had no electable opposition. He gets credit for his GOTV operation which never ceased after he became president in 2009. Still he could've been beaten. Just like Bush could've been beaten in 2004 and 2000. Papa Bush in 1988.

---------- Post added March-14th-2013 at 01:48 PM ----------

This may be in part true, in fact with older R voters, it likely is the case but you'll also never find a more monolithic voting block than the African American voters. Many will readily admit to voting because of skin color.

I think Rubio will find the 2016 Republican Primaries many voters will reject him. They plenty of Republican primary voters who will NEVER vote for Hispanic, much less one who is a Republican. Also, remember Rubio is pushing a immigration plan that has amnesty- a big no no to Republicans.

Honestly, unless the economy is far worse than it was in 2012; I don't see how any Republican will win. Obama has given the Democrats a winning coalition and I don't see that coalition falling for whatever the Republicans attempt to con the nation with in 2016. Their nominee maybe acceptable but the party at it's core no longer appeals to the voters that has given Obama 2 wins.

[Buford]

I think Christie could be an independent by next year in the GOP doesn't right the ship quickly.