Romney/Ryan Lose 2012 Election Thread

[Predicto]

The problem with both political prediction AS WELL as the polls we're seeing is they ALL carry a bias factor. There's seemingly no way around it. The polls are almost meaningless to me though I do like reading predictions from both sides to a degree to see how the politically minded think. With that last statement in your most recent post though P, I'm taking it you've also sworn off watching MSNBC?

I have never watched MSNBC in my life. Well, except when someone on this board links to a funny clip from Rachel Maddow.

But if you link me to an op-ed prediction by Michael Moore or James Carville or someone else like that, I'm not going to buy into it either, as much as I want to.

[DjTj]

I'll post this again, with larger excerpts, since it didnt' get much play the first time.

How the Election Will Play Out (and Why Romney Will Win)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...in_114848.html

I think that's a little too simplistic.

Rope-a-dope works in boxing (and really it only worked one time, when Foreman was a young and inexperienced fighter) because people actually get tired over time by throwing punches for round after round. Maybe this equates to Obama running out of money, but I really don't think he's going to run out of money at the end of the campaign. It's going to come down to a few states, and both sides will have more money than can realistically be spent there. At some point, throwing dollars into a campaign has diminishing returns. I think that reporters are generally too focused on money because it provides a useful concrete metric, but elections aren't really won with just money (and remember, we can only see the officially reported money, and there is still a lot of "soft" money that is unreported and will be spent).

I think that the Obama campaign is trying to follow the "swift boat" strategy that Bush used against Kerry. While the swift boat attacks also started just before the Olympics last year, they really had no effect on the polls, and Kerry was even leading in many polls in July and August. But by the time of the conventions, after the Olympics, Kerry had been defined as unpatriotic and disloyal to his fellow veterans, and the polls shifted sharply in Bush's direction. They hammered Kerry for being a flip-flopper, and the election was effectively over in September. The Obama campaign is trying to do the same thing by laying the groundwork for painting Romney as a wealthy businessman out of touch with the American people, and they'll also want to pile on him as a flip-flopper.

I don't know if it's going to work the same as it did against Kerry, and I don't know if Romney is doing the right thing by trying to sidestep all the attacks without really addressing them, but I don't think we'll really know the impact until September, after the conventions.

[Wrong Direction]

The guy may turn out to be correct, but I have read scores of political predictions like this in my life, and when they come so deeply from one side of the fence, they tend to be more like locker room rallying speeches (or attempts to spin the narrative) than objective political predictions.

Fair enough.

I thought it did a good job of laying out the next couple of months though. Things will be relatively quiet for the olympics (politically, barring something terrible happening that none of us would wish for), but then it's 2 weeks of Romney VP and Republican convention. Obama will get his convention week, and then it'll be both sides hitting hard until election day.

As a matter of strategy, I think it lays out Romney's ideas fairly well. I think it underplays Obama's cash, but generally references the playbook for the next couple of months well.

---------- Post added July-20th-2012 at 02:59 PM ----------

I think that's a little too simplistic.

Good post. I agree.

[Buford]

Well, folks here haven't said why they like Romney, what he stands for, and why they want to vote for him besides that he's not Obama. It does seem a lot like 2004 here.

Is it wishful thinking to say this tax stuff is only going to grow and grow and grow? Why would it stop? If he's not releasing information on himself and/or Bain, and people continue to say that he was leader in sending American jobs to China. How does he prove that isn't true? Or does it matter?

He can complain about spending and debt. But what has be suggested that will bring down spending and pay off debt? Lowering taxes and not cutting defense at all?

Again, what can we agree on that Romney stands for and has always stood for? What major election topic?

[Wrong Direction]

Again, what can we agree on that Romney stands for and has always stood for? What major election topic?

Specifically? This is from his website (I cut and pasted). This is healthcare only.

• Block grant Medicaid and other payments to states
• Limit federal standards and requirements on both private insurance and Medicaid coverage
• Ensure flexibility to help the uninsured, including public-private partnerships, exchanges, and subsidies
• Ensure flexibility to help the chronically ill, including high-risk pools, reinsurance, and risk adjustment
• Offer innovation grants to explore non-litigation alternatives to dispute resolution
• Cap non-economic damages in medical malpractice lawsuits
• Empower individuals and small businesses to form purchasing pools
• Prevent discrimination against individuals with pre-existing conditions who maintain continuous coverage
• Facilitate IT interoperabilityEnd tax discrimination against the individual purchase of insurance
• Allow consumers to purchase insurance across state lines
• Unshackle HSAs by allowing funds to be used for insurance premiums
• Promote "co-insurance" products
• Promote alternatives to "fee for service"
• Encourage "Consumer Reports"-type ratings of alternative insurance plans

Generally?

Healthcare is most important, and "small" bullets like promote co-insurance products and empower purchasing pools means a ton to me because I think those types of relatively mundane reforms are part of what our system really needs, in a totally different economic direction than Obama seems to be taking us.

On taxes, I have to go on faith that Mitt Romney will generally support what most honest conservatives are supporting these days (lower rates in exchange for eliminating loopholes and spending through the tax code). In fairness to those questioning him, he hasn't put the latter in his platform, likely because he's afraid of Grover Norquist.

On energy, I'm almost as "conservative" as you get. I see higher prices in every sector because of higher energy prices. I think it's a massive tax on the economy that hurts standards of living and thus people, and I don't think clean energy is ready to compete (though I do support further support to try). I think America can produce enough through oil, coal, nuclear over the next 20 years to drastically improve our economy over what an Obama-directed future would look like. I feel this very strongly.

These are the three hot-bed issues which I currently think are most critical (should add spending in general as a 4th, which I believe Romney will cut more than Obama). Taken together, I think they'd reduce inflation pressures, greatly improve the economy, improve healthcare access and put a down payment on fixing our debt. I genuinely believe that R's are finally serious about cutting the debt, mostly because they absolutely have to be at this point.

[The Evil Genius]

That's odd.

I found this on his site for his plan for the economy.



I kid.

[deejaydana]

That's odd.

I found this on his site for his plan for the economy.

http://www.queuefull.net/~bensons/gr...GnomesPlan.jpg

You're on a roll with the cheapshots today

[The Evil Genius]

You're on a roll with the cheapshots today

I'll keep this brief. I should have been a boxer.

[Hersh]

This is hilarious:
Romney to Olympians: 'You didn't get here solely on your own'

Mitt Romney has criticized President Obama for his “you didn’t build that line,” when it came to businesses. The president was making an “it takes a village” argument, which the Romney campaign and conservatives have roundly panned.

But in 2002, during his speech at the Opening Ceremonies at the Winter Olympics -- the games in which Romney was lauded for turning around the management of the event -- Romney made a similar argument about Olympians.

"You Olympians, however, know you didn't get here solely on your own power,” said Romney, who on Friday will attend the Opening Ceremonies of this year’s Summer Olympics. “For most of you, loving parents, sisters or brothers, encouraged your hopes, coaches guided, communities built venues in order to organize competitions. All Olympians stand on the shoulders of those who lifted them. We’ve already cheered the Olympians, let’s also cheer the parents, coaches, and communities. All right! [pumps fist].”

More at link

[Tulane Skins Fan]

This is hilarious:
Romney to Olympians: 'You didn't get here solely on your own'



More at link

Just goes to show that there are only so many speeches in a politician's stock to go to. And they all say the same bs.

[The Evil Genius]

Mitt's planning to travel overseas this week.

His plan is to visit Poland, Israel, and his money.

[Hersh]

Mitt's planning to travel overseas this week.

His plan is to visit Poland, Israel, and his money.

That's really funny. I'm probably gonna have to steal it.

[The Evil Genius]

That's really funny. I'm probably gonna have to steal it.

Feel free, I did.

[NoVaO]

So Obama's campaign has spent what, at least a month or more throwing haymakers. Where's the resulting bounce in the polls? I think they've more or less stayed the same from what I've seen. Clearly Romney needs to address the tax issue at some point and soon but, to what degree? Logically the election will be a question of the incumbent adequately providing a convincing reason why people should get on board for another 4 years. What I want from both camps is a SUBSTANTIVE reason for me to choose them. I don't see it yet from either side (we still have a lot of time before November.) Heck, looking forward to the Olympics starting so I can take a much needed break from this already ugly campaign.

The top lines haven't moved much, but Romney's negatives have risen, particularly in swing states. His business background is now viewed as a negative.

[USS Redskins]

I think Romney is really doing pretty well considering, he has been pummelled in the press for a few weeks now and the latest poll has him at 45-43 beating Obama. After all the bad press and attack ads he is leading by a slim margin. Even in some swing states he is pretty close.
Pretty good position to be in with 3 months to go against an incumbent.
There is still the VP announcement - which probably wont be a big deal but if its a swing state Gov or favorite, it might help.
Three months of employment numbers to go - which could be really good for him if they are still stagnant.

I think its anyones game and his biggest obstacle is the Obama friendly press.

I am voting for him, not that I am a big supporter but my vote is just an anti-Obama vote that I want to count. Gary Johnson -sorry, the guy doesnt even register in polls.

I really want a business man in the office for a term. I am fed up with career politicians... I wanted to vote for Trump but he just got too nutty....