TheHill.com: Pelosi-says-dems-aim-to-win-majority-35-house-seats

[Thiebear]

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/20...35-house-seats

Pelosi says Democrats aim to win 35 House seats in 2012 elections


By Mike Lillis - 01/17/12 10:35 AM ET

Vowing that Democrats will win back the House this year, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Tuesday said the party is gunning to pick up 35 seats.
Democrats would need to steal 25 seats from Republicans in November to take control of the lower chamber after two years in the minority, but Pelosi said party leaders are eying a 10-seat cushion. Expected gains in a handful of key states – including California, Illinois, Texas, New York and Florida – make that goal attainable, Pelosi argued.
"In those five states, we come very close to picking up most of what we need – the 25," Pelosi said in an interview with Politico at the Newseum in Washington. "We need more than that, but come very close to what we need, the drive for 25 that takes us to 218.

For some recent track record:

February 28, 2010: “Pelosi Says Democrats Will Keep Control of the House”
March 1, 2010: “Nancy Pelosi predicts Democrats will hold the House”
May 19, 2010: “Bring it on: Pelosi predicts ‘for sure’ that Dems will win House”
July 15, 2010: “Pelosi guarantees Dems will retain House in November”
September 14, 2010: “Speaker Pelosi ‘Absolutely’ Confident Dems Will Retain House Majority”
September 28, 2010: “’I fully expect to be speaker of the House five weeks from now,’ Pelosi replied.”
October 9, 2010: “Vilified or Not, Pelosi Insists She’s Winning”
Midday of Election Day, November 2, 2010: “’With the early returns and the overwhelming number of democrats who are coming out, we’re on pace to maintain the majority in the House of Representatives,’ Pelosi said.”

I believe they set a record for losses.

[Buford]

Who says "We're going to not win"?

I'm so tired of that surgically altered bag of bones. I wish she'd leave and take the guy who spends to much time tanning...and Mr. Turkeyneck with her.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

Who says "We're going to not win"?

I'm so tired of that surgically altered bag of bones. I wish she'd leave and take the guy who spends to much time tanning...and Mr. Turkeyneck with her.

You want Eric Ratface to stay though?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

She should stick to talking about those things she actually knows about. Plastic surgery....and I am sure there must be another.

Dems will lose more seats.

Actually, I think I saw on fivethirtyeight.com that the odds were better than 50%. That was a little while ago, but I can't imagine its gotten worse for dems over the last few months, only better.

[Thiebear]

I was reading that it could be done, but the Senate is going to be much harder.
They hinted at this being why Nancy fought so hard to be minority leader, and why Reid didn't change any rules for the minority.

[NoVaO]

She should stick to talking about those things she actually knows about. Plastic surgery....and I am sure there must be another.

Dems will lose more seats.

No they won't. They pretty much maxed out last time around. I'm not sure if Democrats will take back the House, but they'll definitely pick up a few seats.

[Thiebear]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...vote-2170.html

[NoVaO]

Actually, I think I saw on fivethirtyeight.com that the odds were better than 50%. That was a little while ago, but I can't imagine its gotten worse for dems over the last few months, only better.

No, no...that's definitely too high a percentage. A lot are saying it's closer to 35% chance of re-taking the House. But the public is pretty disgusted with Congress, and the environment will be a pretty good one for challengers.

I'll add that a lot of polls recently have had Democrats winning on the generic ballot. I believe they lost the generic ballot by something like 6 points in 2010. In addition, I've seen a couple of polls (Post and Gallup I believe) where support for one's own Congressman is as low as its been in any poll they've recorded, another positive sign for Democrats.

---------- Post added January-17th-2012 at 11:45 AM ----------

Rasmussen latest (this week) has the Republicans picking up seats on a generic ballot. Granted, it's a generic ballot and we have 10 months of campaigning ahead, but the president cannot really help because he has his own battle to fight. It's every man for himself. I am also curious to see exactly what the left will be running on.

As far as Pelosi's statement. She only hurts her side by opening up her mouth.

It's Rasmussen. He was pretty much discredited with his results in 2008 and 2010. And on all the elections he was off, it was always skewed toward the Republican.

---------- Post added January-17th-2012 at 11:45 AM ----------

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...vote-2170.html

Exactly...illustrates my point. Rasmussen is the outlier right now.

[Buford]

You want Eric Ratface to stay though?

Of course not....He, Reid and the rest of the career politicians should have an American flag stapled to their butts and then mail them to Iran.

[Rdskns2000]

If the economy is the same a little better than I will say the Dems will use the union issue to help them capture the needed seats for a slim majority.

I think the Repubs though have a good shot at a slim majority in the Senate, they only need 4 seats, 3 if Romney wins- giving his veep the majority.

[Baculus]

The Democrats can win seats back, depending on Independents. The Republicans have certainly overreached on a number of issues, especially since the Republicans were voted into office to supposedly "create jobs," and they haven't done a ANYTHING to do this. Instead, they have moved forward with social conservatism and with efforts to secure the presidency in 2012, all the while ignoring the issues which face us.

I keep asking this, and no one ever has an answer: WHY would anyone, outside of social conservatives, vote for Republicans in 2012?

BTW, the right wing hatred shown towards Pelosi is rather obnoxious.

[Wrong Direction]

R's are still motivated and picked up some seats because of the caucus. However, they have a strong majority already. I think the smart money is on the D's to pick up a few seats, but nothing close to 25 net, much less 35. Pelosi is just a poll saying what she has to say though. Not unlike Huntsman's ticket to ride to South Carolina.

[Wrong Direction]

I keep asking this, and no one ever has an answer: WHY would anyone, outside of social conservatives, vote for Republicans in 2012?

In no particular order:

1. Debt
2. Unemployment
3. Spread of Islamic states
4. Lack of support for Israel
5. Energy development
6. Tax rates
7. ObamaCare

[Tulane Skins Fan]

Unemployment on election day 2010 = 9.8%. Unemployment today 8.5%.

Left wing hatred is rather obnoxious also.

What exactly are you attributing that to? Specifically, what bill passed by the republican congress are you attributing that to?

[GibbsFactor]

The Democrats can win seats back, depending on Independents. The Republicans have certainly overreached on a number of issues, especially since the Republicans were voted into office to supposedly "create jobs," and they haven't done a ANYTHING to do this. Instead, they have moved forward with social conservatism and with efforts to secure the presidency in 2012, all the while ignoring the issues which face us.

I keep asking this, and no one ever has an answer: WHY would anyone, outside of social conservatives, vote for Republicans in 2012?

BTW, the right wing hatred shown towards Pelosi is rather obnoxious.

Why would anyone vote for a Democrat? They can't get anything done with the majority. They are a party of no ideas. At least the GOP has bad ideas.