President Barack Obama/Vice-President Joe Biden Re-elected to 2nd Term Thread

[greenspandan]

rasmussen polls ONLY using automated landline phone calls. for a variety of reasons, this skews their polling data older and more conservative (in general). i don't think the bias is particularly intentional.

[Rdskns2000]

I think the President wins the election but fails to break 300 EVs

I think I have him projected at something like 296 EV's right now.

If Ricky Santanna wins the nomination; Obama might break 400 EVs.

Obama has the black vote. Obama has the majority of the hispanic vote, only die hard conservative hispanics will vote for Republicans. Obama will have the liberal and moderate single and married woman vote. Obama will have the traditional union vote. Obama will probably get enough of the swing vote to push him over to reelection. Quite Frankly, I don't really don't see Obama losing to many states he won in 2008 if any.

---------- Post added February-23rd-2012 at 05:20 PM ----------

Obama is already talking about he will have 5 more years.

[LadySkinsFan]

Is it fair that some of Mr. Obama's largest campaign contributors received federal loan guarantees on their investments in renewable energy projects that went bust?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...ditorialPage_h

would a ban on political donations from those recieving federal loans be a good idea?
who is watching the watchers

You know, we could get rid of this speculation about politicians and where their campaign cash comes from if we'd outlaw all campaign contributions except from registered voters and only for the candidates that directly affect them and with strict limits, like $1,000 and go back to the Fair Doctrine Act.

Also, Rdskns2000, you forgot to add the liberal and moderate single and married men. They have skin in the game too, as far as contraception goes.

[deejaydana]

If Ricky Santanna wins the nomination; Obama might break 400 EVs.

Obama has the black vote. Obama has the majority of the hispanic vote, only die hard conservative hispanics will vote for Republicans. Obama will have the liberal and moderate single and married woman vote. Obama will have the traditional union vote. Obama will probably get enough of the swing vote to push him over to reelection. Quite Frankly, I don't really don't see Obama losing to many states he won in 2008 if any.

---------- Post added February-23rd-2012 at 05:20 PM ----------

Obama is already talking about he will have 5 more years.

I think you're potentially over-estimating both the black vote for him as well as the youth vote. I'm not saying the black vote won't trend to him, of course it will and overwhelmingly so, but I think you're much more likely to see a lack of voting on the Dems side in several demographics. The fact that unemployment for 18-25 year olds is at historic highs shouldn't help things for him either and the youth vote is notoriously (and historically) apathetic. Who cares if Obama is talking about another 5 years? Is he going to say he's not going to win?

[Teller]

Gas at $5+ and another government shutdown circa Sept/Oct would be awfully inconvenient.

Unfortunately, the alternative to Obama will be just as bad.

[NoVaO]

I think you're potentially over-estimating both the black vote for him as well as the youth vote. I'm not saying the black vote won't trend to him, of course it will and overwhelmingly so, but I think you're much more likely to see a lack of voting on the Dems side in several demographics. The fact that unemployment for 18-25 year olds is at historic highs shouldn't help things for him either and the youth vote is notoriously (and historically) apathetic. Who cares if Obama is talking about another 5 years? Is he going to say he's not going to win?

Disagree on the black vote. They will turn out for him just as hard for Obama as they did four years ago. Polls show their enthusiasm remains very high as well.

Young voters you are probably right on. It will be harder to turn them out this year than in 2008. But Obama's organization and ground game is very good, and their are 4 million or so newly eligible voters that will help make up for any drop off in turnout from those who voted in 2008. It will be a challenge though.

Other demographics, hispanic approval of Obama is solid, though down from its 2008 levels, like it is for every other demographic group other than black voters. That said, most of the polling I've seen still have hispanics voting for Obama at an equal or greater rate than they did in 2008. This is a consequence of Romney's hard turn to the right during the primaries, particularly on immigration.

Which leads to another point...Republicans can't be a somebody with a nobody. They need to have an appealing alternative to Obama, and for Romney, the more the electorate gets to know him, the less they like him. The primary has been taken a toll on his favorability ratings, which have risen sharply over the past month or two. Being seen unfavorably as a challenger to the President is a big red flag heading into the general.

That said, there are plenty of headwinds Obama will have to deal with. Things can change very quickly for any number of reasons. Way too early for Dems to be celebrating.

[Kilmer17]

rasmussen polls ONLY using automated landline phone calls. for a variety of reasons, this skews their polling data older and more conservative (in general). i don't think the bias is particularly intentional.

That's an old rumor that just wont die.

Here's direct info from Rasmussen website-



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...us/methodology


To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.

[greenspandan]

pretty much everything i said is true. the only inaccuracy is that they added an online poll component. (pretty sure most pollsters weight their data to match broader demographics). but the fact remains that their results have historically leaned conservative compared to other polls and actual election results.

[Kilmer17]

pretty much everything i said is true. the only inaccuracy is that they added an online poll component. (pretty sure most pollsters weight their data to match broader demographics). but the fact remains that their results have historically leaned conservative compared to other polls and actual election results.

Well, you said he ONLY uses landlines. That's not true at all.

And the myth of his innaccuracy is another one that just wont go away.

Here is the study of accuracy from the 2008 Pres campaign.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academ...20election.pdf

Rasmussen was the top. One of only two who got it perfect.

The reason behind this is that Rasmussen is incredibly slanted in his non-election polling. It drives the left wing nuts. And they project that onto his election analysis polling.

But his election polling is the best in the business.

---------- Post added February-24th-2012 at 04:47 PM ----------

Which is closer to the real spread in the O v Mitt race?

Rasmussen has Obama up by 7
USA Today Gallup has Mitt up by 1

[greenspandan]

---------- Post added February-24th-2012 at 04:47 PM ----------

[/COLOR]Which is closer to the real spread in the O v Mitt race?

Rasmussen has Obama up by 7
USA Today Gallup has Mitt up by 1

The gallup poll is a major outlier. A whole bunch of polls have Obama up nationally. But Rasmussen being in line with the rest on a single polling instance doesn't prove they're the best in the business.

[Kilmer17]

The gallup poll is a major outlier. A whole bunch of polls have Obama up nationally. But Rasmussen being in line with the rest on a single polling instance doesn't prove they're the best in the business.

True. Which is why I linked the study from the 08 race that shows he was the best.

[IHOPSkins]

Disagree on the black vote. They will turn out for him just as hard for Obama as they did four years ago. Polls show their enthusiasm remains very high as well.......

Yup

Its their patriotic Duty

Obama Plays Race Card, Calls on Churches to Support Campaign

The program urges black Americans to volunteer their time by making calls, organizing events and going door to door in their neighborhoods encouraging other African Americans to vote for Obama.

Not only is Obama playing the race card in an attempt to pressure black Americans into voting for him, he is also violating the separation between church and state. In the video promo for the campaign, Obama urges black people to pressure churches into supporting his administration by getting his message out via “the faith community”. He also calls on voters to become “congregation captains”.

Again, imagine what the reaction would be any of the Republican candidates launched a ‘Whites for Romney’, ‘Whites for Santorum’ or ‘Whites for Gingrich’ campaign. There would be non-stop uproar. But Obama does the equivalent and gets a free pass.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/obama-pl...-campaign.html

Quote from the Official Obama Site

This year, I’m asking African Americans, women and all people who want to see our progress continue to stand with me. Let’s have the President’s back like he’s had ours.

http://www.barackobama.com/african-americans/

Here is a few quotes from the Liberal Huff Puff

Should Black Americans Expect More From Obama Than Any Other President?

Has the Obama presidency been good for black America? It depends on who you ask. But what I ask, quite simply, is that we focus on tangible results and not symbolism when making our assessment.......

.......At the end of the day, the proof must be in the pudding. If the numbers on unemployment, foreclosure and wealth inequality show that Obama has done a good job for black Americans, then we should support him. But if the numbers do not justify his re-election, we should not allow anyone to play the race card to convince us to vote blindly.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-boy...b_1222622.html

Is this Boyce guy a Conservative?.......you tell me

Now if a white president had the record that Obama has with black Americans.....do you think there would be this much Support in the black community?

But Obama will win re-election.......God is on his side

[mjah]

True. Which is why I linked the study from the 08 race that shows he was the best.

I have never heard anyone claim that Rasmussen was way out of line on the eve of the 08 election.

What I have heard, is that one or two pollsters will slant the results a bit to one side or another when the election is still further away, so as to make a particular candidate look more viable and shape public opinion about his chances. Everyone likes a winner, after all. Rasmussen's name comes up an awful lot in those conversations.

Now obviously, if anyone is still deliberately playing those games on the eve of the election, then they'll only look worse for it and degrade their reputation for the next election. Regardless of one's preferred outcome, it pays to be accurate on the eve of the vote.

Hence the value of the RCP average -- which in this most recent case shows Rasmussen being a major right-leaning outlier. That doesn't at all prove that Rasmussen is always a right-leaning outlier when the election is still weeks or months away. But neither does one accurate election-eve poll from 08 prove that Rasmussen is any good most of the time.

You'd have to show superior accuracy over an extended period of time -- which, given that an election only involves one deterministically measurable event, would be a bit of a trick. But you could make a strong argument for it if Rasmussen was consistently somewhere in the middle of the pack (surrounded by other, presumably less accurate outliers) in the many RCP averages taken in the months leading to November 08. As I recall though, Rasmussen was not found in the middle of the pack most of the time, suggesting bias vs. the collection of other polls.

(I'm wondering who will take the bait and claim that clearly, then, all the other polls must have been biased left. )

[No Excuses]

Yup

Its their patriotic Duty

[COLOR="orange"]Obama Plays Race Card, Calls on Churches to Support Campaign

The program urges black Americans to volunteer their time by making calls, organizing events and going door to door in their neighborhoods encouraging other African Americans to vote for Obama.

Not only is Obama playing the race card in an attempt to pressure black Americans into voting for him, he is also violating the separation between church and state. In the video promo for the campaign, Obama urges black people to pressure churches into supporting his administration by getting his message out via “the faith community”. He also calls on voters to become “congregation captains”.

Typical nonsense article by an Alex Jones lemming. Take a video (or article, science paper etc.), in general pick out a small piece of a larger message and blow it out of proportion by injecting lies and false analysis. Watch the video and then match it up with the laughably bad analysis in the article.

[IHOPSkins]

...... bad analysis in the article.

Exaggerated maybe (although Boyce makes the same "Race Card" claim

But

I think the coverage of Obama is biased favorably also......The question concerning "are you better off NOW?" should be asked and answered