President Barack Obama/Vice-President Joe Biden Re-elected to 2nd Term Thread

[War Paint]

Rasmussen has Romney up by 3. Rasmussen was the most accurate poll last election. They are also assuming the enthusiasm for Obama is going to be the same as it was in 2008. It won't be this time around.

[Skinz4Life12]

Rasmussen has Romney up by 3. Rasmussen was the most accurate poll last election. They are also assuming the enthusiasm for Obama is going to be the same as it was in 2008. It won't be this time around.

Actually Rasmussen has the election as "Tie"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[War Paint]

Actually Rasmussen has the election as "Tie"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

My mistake. I must've seen a state poll instead. That said, no candidate who has had over 50% of the vote in Gallup during mid-October has lost the election. Romney is over 50% in that poll.

[Skinz4Life12]

My mistake. I must've seen a state poll instead. That said, no candidate who has had over 50% of the vote in Gallup during mid-October has lost the election. Romney is over 50% in that poll.

Did you see the other post about the other national polls taken during the last 24 hours? National polls published in past 24 hours: Obama +3.2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +1, Obama +0.6, Obama +0.5, TIE, Romney +7.

Something is off with that Gallup poll as it is the extreme outlier.

Also, no Republican has ever taken the white house without Ohio. A state that Obama has never trailed in and is currently leading

[thebluefood]

There is maybe a 1% chance Obama wins down here. He's not getting any help from Walton Dalton or Bev Perdue. Speaking of which, it's time for me to go vote.

True. It's looking like Raleigh is going to get awfully red for the next four years. McCrory might be an alright governor, though. Who knows? I may not even be in North Carolina in 2013.

[brandymac27]

True. It's looking like Raleigh is going to get awfully red for the next four years. McCrory might be an alright governor, though. Who knows? I may not even be in North Carolina in 2013.

It's been a LONG time since NC voted for a Republican as Gov.

[Skinz4Life12]

From your article..besides Rasmussen and Investor's Business Daily, I've never seen an Ipsos, RAND Corporation, and United Press International poll used in any reports, unless those polls data are used for another poll like NY Times or something.

So you are insinuating they have a liberal bias? Have you forgotten about the right wing bias of the Rasmussen poll?

[Skinz4Life12]

From your article..besides Rasmussen and Investor's Business Daily, I've never seen an Ipsos, RAND Corporation, and United Press International poll used in any reports, unless those polls data are used for another poll like NY Times or something.

double post

[War Paint]

Did you see the other post about the other national polls taken during the last 24 hours? National polls published in past 24 hours: Obama +3.2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +1, Obama +0.6, Obama +0.5, TIE, Romney +7.

Something is off with that Gallup poll as it is the extreme outlier.

Also, no Republican has ever taken the white house without Ohio. A state that Obama has never trailed in and is currently leading

But Gallup is not the only national tracking poll. There are six published on most days; the others are from Rasmussen Reports, Ipsos, the RAND Corporation, Investors' Business Daily and United Press International. (A seventh daily tracking poll, from Public Policy Polling, made its debut on Thursday.)

From your article..besides Rasmussen and Investor's Business Daily, I've never seen an Ipsos, RAND Corporation, and United Press International poll used in any reports, unless those polls data are used for another poll like NY Times or something.

EDIT: I see that Ipsos is with Reuters.

[Predicto]

Rasmussen has Romney up by 3. Rasmussen was the most accurate poll last election. They are also assuming the enthusiasm for Obama is going to be the same as it was in 2008. It won't be this time around.

Actually, according to Nate Silver, Rasmussen was one of the least accurate pollsters in the last election.

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly.

Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.

Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.

What follows is a preliminary analysis of polls released to the public in the final 21 days of the campaign.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/[COLOR="Gold"]

---------- Post added October-19th-2012 at 11:37 AM ----------

---------- Post added October-19th-2012 at 11:36 AM ----------

Putting aside the polls, Obama was having some fun on the campaign trail yesterday. This is actually worth watching for 4 minutes.

[thebluefood]

It's been a LONG time since NC voted for a Republican as Gov.

Twenty years exactly if McCrory is elected (and he probably will be). There have only been three Republican governors in North Carolina to date since Reconstruction ended. Plus, McCrory will probably have a Republican majority in both houses of the General Assembly.

It's going to be rough for Democrats in North Carolina.

[War Paint]

So you are insinuating they have a liberal bias? Have you forgotten about the right wing bias of the Rasmussen poll?

I've seen NY Time polls, along with others that showed Obama ahead, but when you look inside the poll, you'll see that they heavily sampled Democrats over Republicans, sometimes over sampling Democrats by 11%. I'm not saying those polls you posted did that, but I've seen polls in recent months do that.

---------- Post added October-19th-2012 at 02:50 PM ----------

Actually, according to Nate Silver, Rasmussen was one of the least accurate pollsters in the last election.

They were the most accurate last election.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...llster-in-2008

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

According to Politico, "Rasmussen’s final poll of the 2008 general election — showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent — closely mirrored the election’s outcome."[40] In reference to the 2008 presidential election, a Talking Points Memo article said, "Rasmussen's final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there."[41] An initial Nov.5, 2008 Fordham University analysis ranked 23 survey research organizations on the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls, assuming a 6.15% margin of victory by Obama. Rasmussen Reports and Pew Research Center tied as the most accurate.

[Hersh]

It's been a LONG time since NC voted for a Republican as Gov.

As I said to bluefood, my Democratic party needs to get it together. Poor candidates and a poor message.

[Hersh]

Twenty years exactly if McCrory is elected (and he probably will be). There have only been three Republican governors in North Carolina to date since Reconstruction ended. Plus, McCrory will probably have a Republican majority in both houses of the General Assembly.

It's going to be rough for Democrats in North Carolina.

I'm a pretty reliable Democrat, but I voted 3rd party for Governor as a protest vote against my party. They need to put forward better candidates that stay out of trouble and a much better message. Voted McCrory last time but hate his inability to explain his massive tax cut. Also voted Steve Troxler cause I'm friends with his son and he's done a great job. I am encouraging all my conservative friends NOT to vote for John Tedesco for State superintendent. He's a loser. Anyways, I always love the feeling of voting.

[Predicto]

I've seen NY Time polls, along with others that showed Obama ahead, but when you look inside the poll, you'll see that they heavily sampled Democrats over Republicans, sometimes over sampling Democrats by 11%. I'm not saying those polls you posted did that, but I've seen polls in recent months do that.[COLOR="Gold"]

This really is not true. The polls don't "sample." They report what the 1300 people they spoke to said was their party affiliation. That changes from poll to poll. That's why any one single poll is not necessarily representative, but it's not because the polls are twisting things. The oversampling thing is a myth created by a blogger in rural southeastern Virginia, and is nonsense.

They were the most accurate last election.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...llster-in-2008

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

The last election was 2010.