President Barack Obama/Vice-President Joe Biden Re-elected to 2nd Term Thread

[Tulane Skins Fan]

Biased or not, I think this article is saying that he's over-weighting older polls and that's the flaw. Sure, it mentions bias, but it's also making a case about his math.

That title of the article is "Silver lets his partisanship show." That's moronic.

This writer is letting his partisanship show. And the truth is that Silver has more background and a better record on deciding which pollsters should be weighted more and which ones less.

[Wrong Direction]

That title of the article is "Silver lets his partisanship show." That's moronic.

This writer is letting his partisanship show. And the truth is that Silver has more background and a better record on deciding which pollsters should be weighted more and which ones less.

From the last paragraph:

On November 7, after the dust settles from Election Day and we (hopefully) have a winner, it might very well turn out that Nate Silver once again successfully predicted the battleground states and thus the election. But midway through October, 2012 is shaping up to be a far different election than the one in which Silver made his name.

I guess time will tell.

[Larry]

I read this article last week. Its pretty dumb. Silver has a model which he does not change throughout the course of the election. To claim he's biased or partisan doesn't make any sense. The model is the model. He's just entering numbers into a computer at this point.

Works so well for the BCS.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

From the last paragraph:



I guess time will tell.

Of course time will tell. But writing this article tells us the writer's own bias.

[Wrong Direction]

Of course time will tell. But writing this article tells us the writer's own bias.

And the fact that he's biased completely invalidates his substantive critique, right?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

And the fact that he's biased completely invalidates his substantive critique, right?

I dont think he had a substantive critique. Like I said, Nate Silver has a record of solid prediction and poll analysis. This guy is biased and clearly doesn't understand what Nate Silver does.

If his substantive critique is that Nate Silver is weighing some polls more than others, then that is not a critique that makes sense. That is exactly what Silver's model does on purpose based upon historical data and accuracy of all the polling firms.

[Heisenberg]

So he throws in a predictable last paragraph in which he tries to cover his rear end in case Silver ends up being on the money and that's somehow proof that there is no bias?

[thebluefood]

So, I've been looking at one of the interactive electoral maps online (from the PBS Newshour)

Here's how they see the nation thus far.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012...pRqGBlvGnqBlKp

Obama has a pretty sizable lead among states that are leaning his way or solidly with him.

Using this as my template, I gave Romney Florida and Virginia since he's looking pretty favorable in those states. That gives Romney a one vote lead over Obama.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012...pRqGBlvGnqBlCp

I'm going to give Iowa and Nevada to Obama since he seems to be polling favorable in both of those states lately. Obama is now up 259-248.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012...pBqGBlrGnqBlCp

This leaves Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio all of which could go either way. If this is what happens, all Obama needs is Ohio to lock it up. That will put him at 277 and Colorado and New Hampshire are moot. The best Mitt can do is 261.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012...pBqGBlrGmqBlCp

If Mitt Romney wins Ohio, he's still four votes shy of victory. If Obama carries both Colorado and New Hampshire, he will win with 272.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012...pBqGBlqGlqBlCp

Having said that, if Romney wins Ohio and New Hampshire OR Colorado, he wins the race. If he wins Ohio and New Hampshire, that's 270 exactly. If he wins Ohio and Colorado, that's 275. All three and it's 279 (though that would be unlikely).

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012...pBqGBlpGlqBlCp

The point of all this: maybe I've been looking at the wrong three states. Obvious, Ohio is always a major factor; but maybe the race will actually be decided in New Hampshire or Colorado.

Anyway, just a thought on how this election might go.

[Rdskns2000]

Well, ask and I shall receive. Obama has released his plan:

http://images.politico.com/global/20...et1_part1.html

http://images.politico.com/global/20...et1_part2.html

http://images.politico.com/global/20...et1_part3.html

http://images.politico.com/global/20...et1_part4.html

http://images.politico.com/global/20...et1_part5.html

http://images.politico.com/global/20...et1_part6.html

[Predicto]

Oh he has plans...for some reason he has delayed them till after the election

New Senate Report Reveals Economic Pain of Obama-EPA Regulations Put on Hold Until After the Election

Puts Spotlight on an Agency that has "Earned a Reputation for Abuse"
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.c...d-4b0d9e63f84b

Must be like those layoff notices on hold

This isn't a "senate report." It's another pile of partisan talking reports written by a staffer in Jim Inhofe's office, which Inhofe releases as a "minority report". It is utterly meaningless, just like all of the other things Inhofe has released over the years and pretended were official government statements. He does it all the time.

I suspect that you knew this when you posted it, but I can't prove it.

[Rdskns2000]

How about a tie? 269-269.

[twa]

This isn't a "senate report."

it isn't a report from a Senate office?
Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works

don't want to address what it says,so attack the source....and why are you trying to silence the Minority????

[nonniey]

How about a tie? 269-269.

A tie is possible. The one good thing about a tie though is it would make Romney President.

[alexey]

it isn't a report from a Senate office?
Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works

don't want to address what it says,so attack the source....and why are you trying to silence the Minority????

People who think that there is a global scientific conspiracy are idiots. Senator James Inhofe is a shame.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

http://www.politicususa.com/bad-news...obama-gop.html

Bad News for Romney: Ohio Early Voting Turnout is Up for Obama, Down for GOP


In a conference call with reporters Obama campaign manager Jim Messina dropped some devastating numbers on Romney. Messina pointed out that more people are early voting for Obama in 2012 than did in 2008.

Messina laid out what early voting is looking like for the president right now. He said Obama is winning early voting in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Ohio early vote turnout is higher for Obama in 2008 than in Republican counties. He said that this election is more diverse. Most new registrants are under 30. 2/3 of those who have early voted are women, African-Americans, and Latinos. Democrats are winning everywhere where there are in person early votes.

Obama’s campaign manager explained why they think some of these polls are way off in the battleground states, “I do think there is some differences in states, we delve very deep into these states, and we think some people aren’t getting it right about who this electorate is going to be.” We continue to think the math has changed in Florida.” He said there are 250,000 more registered African-American and Latino voters in Florida, and that overall early voting among African-Americans is up 50% over 2008.

New voter registration numbers in Ohio heavily favor Obama. Four in five Ohioans (81 percent) who have registered to vote in 2012 are either female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino. 64 percent of Ohioans who have registered to vote in 2012, and the same percentage among those who have already voted, live in counties that President Obama won in 2008.

The polling numbers for early voting in Ohio also back up what the Obama campaign is saying. A Survey USA poll found that Obama leads by 19 points (57/38) among those who have already. PPP found that Obama leads by 52 points (76%-24%) in Ohio early voting. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found Obama leading Romney, 63%-37% with early voters. Even Republican pollster Rasmussen has Obama leading big in Ohio early voting, 63%-34%.