President Barack Obama/Vice-President Joe Biden Re-elected to 2nd Term Thread

[MattFancy]

It's pretty stupid, team Rmoney was spinning out of control for nearly a whole month and the Ryan pick is polling as low as Quayle, there is finally some real ground to hit Rmoney/Ryan on with policy, and all of the sudden Biden gives them just what they wanted. Somebody bind him and duct tape his mouth and throw him into a bunker until November.

I wonder if we might see Biden have "health issues" that require him to "focus on his family".

They need to keep Biden as far away from the microphones as possible. I don't care what they have to do.

[Hersh]

I think it's refreshing to see someone on the left take him to task. Bravo.

Giuliani fired a shot across the bow the other day asking if (para) Biden would be fit to lead if something happened. Not sure if it will get traction. But I know the GOP is salivating thinking about a Ryan vs Biden debate. Remembering that even Sarah Palin did pretty good against him.

It won't get any traction because gaffes are gaffes. You can be salivating all you want about the debate, it only works in Biden's favor that he is now the underdog in the debate. Furthermore, virtually no one votes for VP. I'm sure you will twist like a pretzel to explain how Biden is unfit now.

[Kilmer17]

It won't get any traction because gaffes are gaffes. You can be salivating all you want about the debate, it only works in Biden's favor that he is now the underdog in the debate. Furthermore, virtually no one votes for VP. I'm sure you will twist like a pretzel to explain how Biden is unfit now.

As opposed the lemmings desperately twisting to explain why Obama and he deserve a second term?

Nobody votes FOR a VP. But plenty of people vote AGAINST them. See- Sarah Palin.

[twa]

What polls?

the purple state polls and as far as youth

http://washingtonexaminer.com/a-romn...3#.UCvUm91lRV7
For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America's youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters.

Pollster John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Secrets Tuesday that Romney received 41 percent in his weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, for the first time crossing the 40 percent mark.


throw in the one showing discouraged voters sitting out and your registered voter polls shift considerably(which is why Rasmussen and Gallup show very different numbers than the others btw)

[Tulane Skins Fan]

As opposed the lemmings desperately twisting to explain why Obama and he deserve a second term?

Nobody votes FOR a VP. But plenty of people vote AGAINST them. See- Sarah Palin.

See Paul Ryan.

[Kilmer17]

See Paul Ryan.

All polls to the contrary?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

All polls to the contrary?

What polls. Fivethirtyeight is showing a one point bounce so far that is below the average 4 point bounce. As they point out, it doesn't matter what bounce he gets now but what bounce he gets in November, so we'll see. But it does appear that picking an extreme right winger as your running mate won't help too much.

[Wrong Direction]

As opposed the lemmings desperately twisting to explain why Obama and he deserve a second term?

Nobody votes FOR a VP. But plenty of people vote AGAINST them. See- Sarah Palin.

Quoted for truth.

Personally, I think people on both sides draw waaaay too many conclusions about what will happen using what is a relatively shallow history of presidential elections. All you have to do is look at the Republican primary to see how sharply things can change in an instant.

If we're looking at past evidence to predict this election, the unemployment rate is the death knell for Obama. I don't think that's necessarily the case, though.

I can't speak for liberals, but I think the Ryan pick will get a lot of conservative fence sitters to the polls. Voter intensity matters, but a lot can happen in either direction in 2+ months.

[Kilmer17]

What polls. Fivethirtyeight is showing a one point bounce so far that is below the average 4 point bounce. As they point out, it doesn't matter what bounce he gets now but what bounce he gets in November, so we'll see. But it does appear that picking an extreme right winger as your running mate won't help too much.

It appears that way to you because?????????

Anything concrete?

I think the Ryan pick is a desperate move personally. But I think the fact that every left wing pundit panderer and politician is out in front telling the world how thrilled they are with it, should make everyone take a pause.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

It appears that way to you because?????????

Anything concrete?

I think the Ryan pick is a desperate move personally. But I think the fact that every left wing pundit panderer and politician is out in front telling the world how thrilled they are with it, should make everyone take a pause.

So, you agree with me.... but you want me to prove that we are both accurate in our assessment. www.fivethirtyeight.com has concrete statistical analysis.

[greenspandan]

Nate Silver has a brand new article that gives good, in-depth analysis with plenty of context. It's still early to measure the effects of the pick, but so far it appears to be an underwhelming bounce. This is not really a big deal -- typically, the bounce fades anyway. Most likely, this pick will not greatly affect the race, and unless things change markedly, Obama will retain his modest but solid electoral lead.

That's not to say things can't or won't change. Romney is still in this race. He's not getting blown out at all. However, the single most remarkable thing about this race so far is how stable it's been: there has been almost no movement in the various meters from cycle to cycle, and in virtually all credible estimations of electoral counts, Obama has come out ahead. His electoral lead has been relatively small, but incredibly consistent.

oh -- here's the link to the article:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...AD1#more-33266

[Kilmer17]

So, you agree with me.... but you want me to prove that we are both accurate in our assessment. www.fivethirtyeight.com has concrete statistical analysis.

4 days after the pick, polls are trending Romney. It's too early to say anything difinitive, but RIGHT NOW, the pick is helping Romney.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

4 days after the pick, polls are trending Romney. It's too early to say anything difinitive, but RIGHT NOW, the pick is helping Romney.

The statistical analysis of the statistician Nate Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com says the opposite. It says the republican leaning polls are shifting and overall there has probably been a 1 point change. So, that's the analysis that I have for you.

[greenspandan]

4 days after the pick, polls are trending Romney. It's too early to say anything difinitive, but RIGHT NOW, the pick is helping Romney.

that's one way to put it. another, more specific and accurate way would be to say on average, a VP pick results in a +4 polling average bounce immediately afterwards, but Ryan has netted only +1 point average bounce so far.

and to further downplay the immediate results, the initial bounce is a poor indicator of the pick's long term effect on the polls, anyway.

[Kilmer17]

that's one way to put it. another, more specific and accurate way would be to say on average, a VP pick results in a +4 polling average bounce immediately afterwards, but Ryan has netted only +1 point average bounce so far.

and to further downplay the immediate results, the initial bounce is a poor indicator of the pick's long term effect on the polls, anyway.

I call Shenanigans.

Please show me proof that after 4 days, athe average bounce in the polls has been 4%.