Statwise: Skins new WRs w/ other FA WRs who were available Warning! LONG

[TriangleSkinsFan]

I started thinking about the new WR additions to the Skins and wondered how they stacked up against the other WRs available this offseason. I found some neat stuff...check this out. It actually took me longer to type this thread than mine the info in it. Someone in the front office is a numbers guy like me

The Offensive coaching staff has stated that they feel like the team needs WRs that can make the big plays and get YAC(Yards after Catch). I also think this is a good judge of what the WRs do once they have the ball. It's not perfect but it's really the only immediate stat that eliminates the QB form the equation. So, I searched the web and found the 2011 YAC stats for the NFL, this included all positions...WR, TE, RB, FB. This would have taken forever to do if I had taken previous years into account so I just went with the most recent year. Anyway... I removed everyone from the list that was not a WR. Then I removed everyone that was not a free agent. So the remaining list contains all free agent WRs this off season and lists them by league ranking of YAC (highest to lowest) There were about 30 guys on this list and I eliminated 2 of them because their total receptions were less than 5. I also put the current Redskins WRs on the list to see how they compare with these guys. There are some other guys not on the list but that is because they did not rank in the top 320 or so and I didn't feel like those guys were worth looking at. The list looks like this with their league ranking for YAC on the left...look at this list and think about who you would like to have on your team and keep an eye on them throughout the lists


30_ Pierre Garcon, WR IND
38_ Early Doucet, WR ARI
40_ Deion Branch, WR NE
62_ Reggie Wayne, WR IND
66_ Marques Colston, WR NO
67_ Laurent Robinson, WR DAL
69_ Jerome Simpson, WR CIN
72_ Harry Douglas, WR ATL
87_ Vincent Jackson, WR SD
113_Hines Ward, WR PIT
118_Santana Moss, WR WSH
120_Jabar Gaffney, WR WSH
125_Legedu Naanee, WR CAR
130_Plaxico Burress, WR NYJ
144_Brandon Lloyd, WR DEN/STL
180_Devin Aromashodu, WR MIN
185_Roy Williams, WR CHI
186_Andre Caldwell, WR CIN
189_Donte' Stallworth, WR WSH
193_Robert Meachem, WR NO
194_Mario Manningham, WR NYG
198_Josh Morgan, WR SF
205_Patrick Crayton, WR SD
233_Eddie Royal, WR DEN
241_Jerricho Cotchery, WR PIT
263_Braylon Edwards, WR SF
264_Chaz Schilens, WR OAK
264_Ted Ginn, WR SF
276_Leonard Hankerson, WR WSH
279_Mike Sims-Walker, WR STL/JAC
296_T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR OAK
305_Ruvell Martin, WR BUF
307_Steve Smith, WR PHI
308_Eric Weems, WR ATL

So Pierre Garcon leads the league in YAC for available WRs and beats the current Skins WRs hands down. YAC is a huge part of his game. I can see why Bruce and Mike went after this guy. Josh Morgan did not place high on this list but he missed a large chunk of the season due to injury so it stands to reason that his total YAC would suffer compared to guys who played the whole season. Read on to find out more about young Mr Morgan and the quality of his play.

But, this is a total yards stat... if the guy gets the ball a lot then this # should be big. A better value to look at is the YAC per reception average. This should be a good value to determine what the WR is likely to do once he gets the ball compared to other available WRs. Some quick MS Excel math and I can up with this list of those same guys in YAC/REC ranking, Skins WR not included in the ranking #s wise but their place is shown

rank YAC/REC
1_ 6.67 Josh Morgan, WR SF
2_ 6.51 Deion Branch, WR NE
3_ 6.41 Early Doucet, WR ARI
4_ 6.31 Harry Douglas, WR ATL
5_ 5.23 Pierre Garcon, WR IND
6_ 5.14 Jerome Simpson, WR CIN
7_ 4.89 Laurent Robinson, WR DAL
4.82 Donte' Stallworth, WR WSH
8_ 4.57 Ruvell Martin, WR BUF
9_ 4.46 Devin Aromashodu, WR MIN
10_ 4.09 Patrick Crayton, WR SD
11_ 4.00 Hines Ward, WR PIT
12_ 4.00 Jerricho Cotchery, WR PIT
3.80 Santana Moss, WR WSH
13_ 3.80 Legedu Naanee, WR CAR
14_ 3.72 Vincent Jackson, WR SD
15_ 3.69 Reggie Wayne, WR IND
16_ 3.63 Eddie Royal, WR DEN
17_ 3.58 Plaxico Burress, WR NYJ
18_ 3.33 Mike Sims-Walker, WR STL/JAC
19_ 3.31 Marques Colston, WR NO
20_ 3.20 Braylon Edwards, WR SF
21_ 3.18 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR OAK
3.15 Leonard Hankerson, WR WSH
23_ 3.00 Roy Williams, WR CHI
24_ 2.92 Andre Caldwell, WR CIN
25_ 2.82 Steve Smith, WR PHI
26_ 2.73 Eric Weems, WR ATL
27_ 2.62 Mario Manningham, WR NYG
28_ 2.58 Robert Meachem, WR NO
2.53 Jabar Gaffney, WR WSH
30_ 2.47 Ted Ginn, WR SF
31_ 2.11 Brandon Lloyd, WR DEN/STL
32_ 2.04 Chaz Schilens, WR OAK
2.00 Terrence Austin, WR WSH

Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan are in the top 5 here. And, both beat out all of the Skins WRs. Adding Deion Branch to the Skins sure wouldn't make them any younger and Harry Douglas resigned with the Falcons. So the Skins picked up 2 of the top 3 guys that were feasible options.

Not enough info for you to like these guys? So next, I ranked these guys by what percentage of their Receptions go for 20+ yards. Kind of a big play ability hint but not necessarily an indicator on it's own. That rank looks like this


rank 20+ ratio
1_ 0.35 Vincent Jackson, WR SD
2_ 0.27 Devin Aromashodu, WR MIN
2_ 0.27 Josh Morgan, WR SF
4_ 0.26 Harry Douglas, WR ATL
5_ 0.25 Jerricho Cotchery, WR PIT
6_ 0.23 Robert Meachem, WR NO
7_ 0.22 Laurent Robinson, WR DAL
0.22 Santana Moss, WR WSH
8_ 0.21 Brandon Lloyd, WR DEN/STL
0.21 Jabar Gaffney, WR WSH
9_ 0.20 Jerome Simpson, WR CIN
9_ 0.20 Braylon Edwards, WR SF
9_ 0.20 Deion Branch, WR NE
12_ 0.19 Marques Colston, WR NO
13_ 0.18 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR OAK
14_ 0.17 Early Doucet, WR ARI
14_ 0.17 Mike Sims-Walker, WR STL/JAC
0.17 Terrence Austin, WR WSH
16_ 0.16 Reggie Wayne, WR IND
0.15 Leonard Hankerson, WR WSH
17_ 0.14 Ruvell Martin, WR BUF
0.14 Donte' Stallworth, WR WSH
18_ 0.14 Roy Williams, WR CHI
19_ 0.13 Plaxico Burress, WR NYJ
19_ 0.13 Patrick Crayton, WR SD
19_ 0.13 Pierre Garcon, WR IND
22_ 0.11 Legedu Naanee, WR CAR
23_ 0.10 Mario Manningham, WR NYG
24_ 0.09 Steve Smith, WR PHI
24_ 0.09 Chaz Schilens, WR OAK
26_ 0.05 Eddie Royal, WR DEN
26_ 0.05 Ted Ginn, WR SF
28_ 0.03 Andre Caldwell, WR CIN
29_ 0.02 Hines Ward, WR PIT
30_ 0.00 Eric Weems, WR ATL

So..a Whopping 35% of Vincent Jackson's receptions go for 20+ yards. He is clearly head and shoulders above the rest. But..There is Josh Morgan tied for 2nd at 27% Awesome. Yes, Devin Aromashodu is up there too but the guy can't catch, see the next list. I am trying to build a complete picture here...

One more piece of the puzzle was how likely is the guy to catch a ball thrown at him. I know this is largely dependent on the QB but I figured that it was as good as I could get without factoring in drops and that seems like a rather subjective call. Anyway the next list just shows the percentage of throws that go to them that are caught.


rank receptions/targets
1_ 0.79 Josh Morgan, WR SF
1_ 0.79 Eric Weems, WR ATL
3_ 0.75 Marques Colston, WR NO
4_ 0.73 Hines Ward, WR PIT
5_ 0.68 Patrick Crayton, WR SD
5_ 0.68 Chaz Schilens, WR OAK
7_ 0.67 Laurent Robinson, WR DAL
8_ 0.66 Robert Meachem, WR NO
0.65 Leonard Hankerson, WR WSH
9_ 0.63 Harry Douglas, WR ATL
0.59 Donte' Stallworth, WR WSH
0.59 Jabar Gaffney, WR WSH
10_ 0.59 Roy Williams, WR CHI
11_ 0.58 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR OAK
11_ 0.58 Legedu Naanee, WR CAR
11_ 0.58 Ted Ginn, WR SF
14_ 0.57 Reggie Wayne, WR IND
14_ 0.57 Deion Branch, WR NE
16_ 0.55 Andre Caldwell, WR CIN
16_ 0.55 Early Doucet, WR ARI
16_ 0.55 Steve Smith, WR PHI
19_ 0.53 Jerricho Cotchery, WR PIT
20_ 0.52 Pierre Garcon, WR IND
20_ 0.52 Vincent Jackson, WR SD
22_ 0.51 Mario Manningham, WR NYG
23_ 0.48 Jerome Simpson, WR CIN
0.48 Santana Moss, WR WSH
25_ 0.47 Brandon Lloyd, WR DEN/STL
26_ 0.46 Plaxico Burress, WR NYJ
0.46 Terrence Austin, WR WSH
27_ 0.44 Braylon Edwards, WR SF
27_ 0.44 Ruvell Martin, WR BUF
29_ 0.39 Eddie Royal, WR DEN
30_ 0.38 Mike Sims-Walker, WR STL/JAC
31_ 0.31 Devin Aromashodu, WR MIN

Again, Josh Morgan sits right at the top catching nearly 80% of the balls thrown at him.

Finally, A big picture view of how these guys stack up against each other is to take these three rankings and add them up. A guy who ranked first in all three categories would have a value of 3 and a guy who ranked 30th in all three categories would have a value of 90. The lower the better. When you add them all up and rank them again you get this list.



4_ Josh Morgan, WR SF
17_ Harry Douglas, WR ATL
21_ Laurent Robinson, WR DAL
25_ Deion Branch, WR NE
33_ Early Doucet, WR ARI
34_ Marques Colston, WR NO
34_ Patrick Crayton, WR SD
35_ Vincent Jackson, WR SD
36_ Jerricho Cotchery, WR PIT
38_ Jerome Simpson, WR CIN
42_ Robert Meachem, WR NO
42_ Devin Aromashodu, WR MIN
44_ Hines Ward, WR PIT
44_ Pierre Garcon, WR IND
45_ T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR OAK
45_ Reggie Wayne, WR IND
46_ Legedu Naanee, WR CAR
51_ Roy Williams, WR CHI
52_ Ruvell Martin, WR BUF
56_ Braylon Edwards, WR SF
57_ Eric Weems, WR ATL
61_ Chaz Schilens, WR OAK
62_ Plaxico Burress, WR NYJ
62_ Mike Sims-Walker, WR STL/JAC
64_ Brandon Lloyd, WR DEN/STL
65_ Steve Smith, WR PHI
67_ Ted Ginn, WR SF
68_ Andre Caldwell, WR CIN
71_ Eddie Royal, WR DEN
72_ Mario Manningham, WR NYG

Josh Morgan leads this list with no one else even close.

EDIT: And for my friend Dan who told me earlier today that Mario Manningham would have been a better selection than Josh Morgan here, please note that he placed dead last overall for available Free Agent WRs in my humble analysis.

I can see why they targeted Morgan and Garcon as good additions to the team. I hope things turn out as well as the numbers suggest that they could. I guess that based on this type of info you could wonder why the team didn't appear to be interested in Early Doucet or maybe even Laurent Robinson but most of the guys on this list that placed high had something that made me dismiss them as possibilities...Age, Headcase, Off field issues, etc

[MattFancy]

The YAC yards are going to be huge. I thought I remember Kyle saying last year that only one of our receiving TDs came from someone running the ball into the end zone, I believe it was Helu.

So Morgan and Garcon are definitely HR threats which is something this offense has been lacking.

[Hitman21ST]

Good research TSF. I have no doubt that was a big factor in who we were going after. One of the major problems that plagued our offense last year was YAC. So, we address the problem on the cheap. Another win for Shanahallen

[skinsarel33t]

Very very very nice post well done

[Riggo-toni]

Nice in depth analysis. Threads like this truly make the Stadium great.

[Bang]

Good post.
If this doesn't indicate to anyone paying attention that there's actual homework being done beyond name recognition at Redskins Park these days, I don't know what will.

~Bang

[Jumbo]

Very good work,TSF. I have been arguing the choices as being very solid ones with many (not just on ES).And it's certainly not from a position of homerism or ignorance. I am (as I have stated here a lot) particularly interested in seeing Morgan's abilities to be realized more fully in DC.

[thechalkoutlines]

Triangle and Skins FO puttin in work

Ayo I'm gonna be on ti-top, that's all my eyes can see
Victory is mine, yeah suprisingly
I've been layin, waiting for your next mistake
I put in work, and watch my status escalate

[GothSkinsFan]

One thing that's impossible (AFAIK) to account for is how well the QB leads his receiver, thus making it possible to put the ball where the receiver can actually run upfield with it (I guess "in stride" is the term). Seems for years our QBs have hit the WR where the WR gets hit pretty much immediately. Looking forward to Griffin reversing that trend.

[Captain Injury]

A+ brother. Thanks a lot.

From my perspective, Garçon got a lot of balls thrown his way that were short and in heavy traffic. Dunno if stats confirm that, but his ranking on this list is even more impressive to me because of that impression.

[TriangleSkinsFan]

Yeah, If RGIII or Luck can hit Garcon better than Curtis Painter did, and hit Morgan better than Alex Smith did... I see great possibility.

Hell, if RGII or Luck can hit the current Skins WRs better than Grossman and Beck did we should see improvements in the passing game.

[Monkart]

Thank you, now when I get home I'll have to tweet PFF (Profootballfocus) and continue my argument with them. They have an article that they rate the price paid for FA, and they had us at -1.0 out of 2 with 3 players we "gamble" big bucks on. PG was one AC 94 and brandon M. ok with Brandon, but was arguing AC, I didn't think price was too high to resign him, specially when he's getting better in system each year!

[Dan T.]

Good stuff. The general vibe has been that Pierre Garcon is the top WR acquisition, but those numbers hint that Joshua Morgan might be the real free agent stud. He may still slip in under the radar and surprise people.

[skinsarel33t]

I think the best stat out of all the stats you listed was the targets/catches i think thats a very underrated stat

[wrecker]

...and pair Garcon and Morgan with a mobile QB that keeps the defense from cheating combined with a very acurate deep ball and we could have the greatest show on turf part 2.