The Nats Thread (old thread link inside, too many load issues)

[Tulane Skins Fan]

I forgot Gio!

---------- Post added June-14th-2012 at 10:57 AM ----------

He is hitting .266, with 9 HR and 32 RBI. He has a .966 fielding %. Half his errors have come on plays most SS don't even get to. His range is ridiculous, he has a cannon for an arm. He is panned as a defensive liability, yet we are 9th in the majors in fielding (.985). He is second in the NL in both HR and RBI for SS, and 7th in AVG. He is 6th in steals with 8, 3rd in slugging, 6th in OPS. But let's be realistic, the All Star game is all about publicity. Rafael Furcal is in second at SS? Every complaint about Desmond applies to Furcal. He has more HR and RBI than the leading vote getter (Troy Tulowitzki). He stacks up with the NL's best much better than is implied, but since he made a bunch of errors last year he sucks.

I've gone through this before, but here goes again: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...85&position=SS

The most important stat for a hitter (at least basic stat) is not average, and it sure as hell is not RBI. It is OBP. Desmond's OBP is .295, meaning he makes an out more than 70% of the time he comes to the plate. That number is ATROCIOUS. There is no way to say it, it is probably the worst number in the majors for an everyday player. If not the worst, one of the five worst.

He has certainly provided pop this year (which for the umpteenth time, I have no reason think will continue), and because of that he has made himself more valuable to date. For example, at the link above look at the stat wRC+. This number is "weighted runs created" adjusted for ball park factors. This takes into account everything a batter can do with the bat and normalizes it to a score. The score of 100 means he is an average major league with the bat.

Desmond's defense has been good. He does not have "ridiculous range" and a "cannon arm." He has good range and a good arm. He is certainly a capable defender at SS.

RBI is essentially a worthless stat. Average is not worthless, but it is not nearly the best thing we have. Slugging is much more important compared to other "basic stats," and he is excelling there now. But its not going to continue. I am certainly not going to cry if in September someone moves Espinosa to SS and Lombo to 2B, or even the reverse. I am definitely not going to cry if one day we have Lombo at SS and Rendon at 2B.

A SS who plays good defense and is an average hitter is definitely valuable. However, he is not a super hero. And again, unless he keeps slugging like he never has before in his life, that number is going to go down. At which point he'll become an average SS.

[hunterx]

It would be a shame if Harper doesn't make it, but I think he will. It would be a big boost for MLB's awareness, too. I don't really think anyone else from the offense can make it. They're playing good but not superstar level. Strasburg, Gonzalez and Stammen should make the team. Burnett should have an outside chance too.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

It would be a shame if Harper doesn't make it, but I think he will. It would be a big boost for MLB's awareness, too. I don't really think anyone else from the offense can make it. They're playing good but not superstar level. Strasburg, Gonzalez and Stammen should make the team. Burnett should have an outside chance too.

Middle relievers and set up men do not make the all star team.

I bet Harper gets voted in by the fans at the end as that you pick from these five for the last spot thing.

[Dan T.]

Tulane Skins Fan, you keep saying that Desmond is going to stop hitting home runs any day now. Can you please tell us what else is going to happen the rest of the season?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

Tulane Skins Fan, you keep saying that Desmond is going to stop hitting home runs any day now. Can you please tell us what else is going to happen the rest of the season?

You are going to keep posting that Desmond is the best SS in the NL.

C'mon, that's a clown question bro.

---------- Post added June-14th-2012 at 11:47 AM ----------

Desmond never hit more than 13 home runs in the minors or majors. What on earth makes you think all of a sudden he is going to hit 25? IF he does, its a fluke. He could do it, nothing is impossible. But it will be a fluke if he does. And he won't repeat it.

Are you the poster who said he had "dan uggla power"?

---------- Post added June-14th-2012 at 11:49 AM ----------

Here need more evidence that his home runs are a fluke (evidence is helpful):

2009 Nationals 1.61 11.8 % 54.4 % 33.8 % 8.7 % 17.4 % 8.1 % 50.0 %
2010 Nationals 1.67 15.8 % 52.7 % 31.6 % 9.2 % 7.7 % 7.8 % 30.0 %
2011 Nationals 1.70 17.5 % 51.9 % 30.5 % 9.0 % 6.0 % 7.0 % 18.2 %
2012 Nationals 1.41 18.4 % 47.8 % 33.8 % 5.7 % 12.9 % 8.1 % 0.0 %
Total - - - 1.63 16.7 % 51.6 % 31.7 % 8.4 % 8.7 % 7.6 % 23.9 %

His home run per fly ball rate is about 2 times higher than its ever been. Throw out 2009 because that was a september callup, which is a small sample. All of a sudden 2 times his fly balls are home runs?

Its called deviation from the mean, and it will regress.

[Dan T.]

You are going to keep posting that Desmond is the best SS in the NL.

C'mon, that's a clown question bro.

---------- Post added June-14th-2012 at 11:47 AM ----------

Desmond never hit more than 13 home runs in the minors or majors. What on earth makes you think all of a sudden he is going to hit 25? IF he does, its a fluke. He could do it, nothing is impossible. But it will be a fluke if he does. And he won't repeat it.

Are you the poster who said he had "dan uggla power"?

You have me confused with someone else. I didn't say he's the best shortstop in the NL. I don't think he's an all-star at this point. I didn't say he has Dan Uggla power.

What I did say is that I can see why Davey Johnson stuck by him when he was struggling and when many were wishing he would be benched or sent down. I also agreed that his OBP isn't good, but that his aggressiveness at the plate and resulting lack of walks has been a trade-off for his upsurge in power. I also disagree with you on his arm strength... he's shown that it's better than just "good."

He's come a long way. He's been the most clutch batter on the team so far this season, including Harper. You predicted, what, fewer than 20 homers for him this year? Fluke or not, do you want to revise that prediction?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

You have me confused with someone else. I didn't say he's the best shortstop in the NL. I don't think he's an all-star at this point. I didn't say he has Dan Uggla power.

What I did say is that I can see why Davey Johnson stuck by him when he was struggling and when many were wishing he would be benched or sent down. I also agreed that his OBP isn't good, but that his aggressiveness at the plate and resulting lack of walks has been a trade-off for his upsurge in power. I also disagree with you on his arm strength... he's shown that it's better than just "good."

He's come a long way. He's been the most clutch batter on the team so far this season, including Harper. You predicted, what, fewer than 20 homers for him this year? Fluke or not, do you want to revise that prediction?

I predicted that? I think I said I "doubt" he would ever hit 20 in a season. I'll stick to that. That doesn't mean he "can't." It means I find it very unlikely.

I'll also say this, I really really want Desmond to learn how to take a walk. If he does that, then he can be a GREAT SS. An all star. And players can develop new skills, like learning how to take a walk and work an AB. So, I hope he does. But he hasn't yet. He is what he is. Serious deficiencies with some positives at the plate. A good defender at the most difficult position to defend.

[StillUnknown]

Just got another notification saying I was quoted in this thread by Slateman, but I can't find the post. He's stuck in the internetz.

[Sticksboi05]

His home run per fly ball rate is about 2 times higher than its ever been. Throw out 2009 because that was a september callup, which is a small sample. All of a sudden 2 times his fly balls are home runs?

Its called deviation from the mean, and it will regress.

By 32 you should know that sports are unpredictable and stats are meant to change. Do I realistically think he'll randomly hit 25 HR's for a couple years? No. But sometimes offseason work pays off or you could just be coming into your own.

[Forehead]

Just got another notification saying I was quoted in this thread by Slateman, but I can't find the post. He's stuck in the internetz.

So long as Desmond does anything better than "play like complete ****" Slateman probably won't come back, since he was screaming the loudest from the mountain in pre-season. He's pulled a McD5 here.

On another note, that clown question thing is already overused and stupid.

[Dan T.]

I'll also say this, I really really want Desmond to learn how to take a walk. If he does that, then he can be a GREAT SS. An all star. And players can develop new skills, like learning how to take a walk and work an AB. So, I hope he does. But he hasn't yet. He is what he is. Serious deficiencies with some positives at the plate. A good defender at the most difficult position to defend.

Fair enough.

You are right, a player can develop new skils... for example, hitting for power.

I would like to see him draw more walks too. But as I've said before, it's a trade-off. Right now, he is the third most aggressive player in baseball at the plate behind Delmon Young and Sean Rodriguez, averaging only 3.32 pitches per at bat: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting...ed/order/false

His aggressiveness has resulted in at least two first-pitch home runs and a bunch of first pitch hits. But pitchers will go to school and not give him meat on the first pitch. When that happens, that's a good time for him adjust and become more patient.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

So long as Desmond does anything better than "play like complete ****" Slateman probably won't come back, since he was screaming the loudest from the mountain in pre-season. He's pulled a McD5 here.

On another note, that clown question thing is already overused and stupid.

Disagree. Clown question is awesome and will not be overused any time soon.

By 32 you should know that sports are unpredictable and stats are meant to change. Do I realistically think he'll randomly hit 25 HR's for a couple years? No. But sometimes offseason work pays off or you could just be coming into your own.

So I should ignore all the evidence to date?

[Backpack3r]

Do you get pissed when Ian Desmond gets a hit?

[Tulane Skins Fan]

Do you get pissed when Ian Desmond gets a hit?

No, I get happy.

That's a clown question bro.

[Sticksboi05]

Disagree. Clown question is awesome and will not be overused any time soon.



So I should ignore all the evidence to date?

No, but you can't completely ignore the possibility that he possibly may just be learning to hit for power.