Fantasy Value for RG3 and others

[GibbsFactor]

also, i never draft a K or DEF, i will ride a hot K sometimes, but i pick my DEF per match ups each week.

Best advise. You can draft them in the last two rounds cause really, you're not getting the right sleeper there anyway. But definitely play the matchups week to week.

[SirClintonPortis]

The top of your draft board should have players that will be used heavily during the season and are consistent. LeSean McCoy, Tom Brady, Gronk, Cam Newton, Rodgers, Jimmy Graham, and Ray Rice should all be up there.

[ConnSKINS26]

not sure how the draft will play out in my league, but im very tempted to take RGIII in the 1st round, just to ensure i get him. I won my league last year, so i think i can take some risks this year. again, all depends on who pops up in the first round as my options and what my draft spot is.

I don't know how many times I have to say this--but this is incredibly stupid. There's no reason whatsoever to draft RG3 in the 1st round if you like winning, unless you play with a bunch of guys that are completely fantasy ignorant. Then I guess you can do whatever you like.

The same goes in a QB-heavy league. There will be choices available later that will score at least as much as RG3. That way, you can take advantage of all of the stud skill players that drop when other owners take some QB's way too early.

It would be different if you were talking about Rodgers/Brady, maybe Brees/Newton/Stafford. But you aren't. You're talking about RG3, and I say this as a homer as well.

One thing to remember: Cam Newton won people leagues last year because he was a 10th round pick or so at the earliest. People were able to stack their rosters early and get a top-3 QB basically for free later on. If you're taking a QB and hoping for a similar season, but taking them in the 1st, you aren't getting that kind of value. Nevermind the fact that another record-breaking rookie season so soon is highly unlikely.

[JPCreativelab]

I don't know how many times I have to say this--but this is incredibly stupid. There's no reason whatsoever to draft RG3 in the 1st round if you like winning, unless you play with a bunch of guys that are completely fantasy ignorant.

call me stupid then, i won last year and want RGII on my team this year, i care about winning, but im willing to forego my normal rules and draft a Redskin player this year.

obviously if a Brady or Rogers is available in the 1st, i will grab them, but if its Rivers or Dalton or even Brees, I would take RGIII over them, its worth the risk to me, and i draft and play well enough to overcome the possibility that he might just suck...

EDIT: I should mention that a few people in my league (im in Texas) are huge RGIII fans, and some have already mentioned wanting him, so its not that i feel that he deserves a 1st round fantasy grade, just that im willing to take him there if thats what it takes to get him on my team.

[wit33]

i highly disagree with this statement. Gronk almost won my championship for me, by himself. Gronk and Graham are way above the rest.

also, i never draft a K or DEF, i will ride a hot K sometimes, but i pick my DEF per match ups each week.

I think he was saying that you can get a great TE in the late rounds, much like you did with GRONK last draft. He went un-drafted in many draft or was a late, late round pick. You will now have to get him in the late second or early third round. But as one poster mentioned, there is no exact science to fantasy football success. If you know what you are doing, then you should be able to get your team to the playoffs and hope for the best from there.

[ConnSKINS26]

call me stupid then, i won last year and want RGII on my team this year, i care about winning, but im willing to forego my normal rules and draft a Redskin player this year.

obviously if a Brady or Rogers is available in the 1st, i will grab them, but if its Rivers or Dalton or even Brees, I would take RGIII over them, its worth the risk to me, and i draft and play well enough to overcome the possibility that he might just suck...

It has nothing to do with the possibility of him sucking. He could be the #1 overall fantasy player at the end of the season, and you'd still have been an idiot to take him in the 1st round in August...because he won't go anywhere near that high in ANY league (barring others like yourself). The way to win is to get value. If you really want him, you can take him in the 6th or 7th, maybe a bit higher if you're really desperate for him. The 1st is lunacy. If you're in a league with a bunch of Redskins Homers who will fight for him in the 1st/2nd/3rd/4th...then do the smart thing and take advantage of that. Don't join the madness. That's amateurish.

[JPCreativelab]

I think he was saying that you can get a great TE in the late rounds, much like you did with GRONK last draft. He went un-drafted in many draft or was a late, late round pick. You will now have to get him in the late second or early third round. But as one poster mentioned, there is no exact science to fantasy football success. If you know what you are doing, then you should be able to get your team to the playoffs and hope for the best from there.

oh i agree and i got him in the 6th round last year. obviously there are no guarantees with him.

---------- Post added June-15th-2012 at 04:06 PM ----------

It has nothing to do with the possibility of him sucking. He could be the #1 overall fantasy player at the end of the season, and you'd still have been an idiot to take him in the 1st round in August...because he won't go anywhere near that high in ANY league (barring others like yourself). The way to win is to get value. If you really want him, you can take him in the 6th or 7th, maybe a bit higher if you're really desperate for him. The 1st is lunacy. If you're in a league with a bunch of Redskins Homers who will fight for him in the 1st/2nd/3rd/4th...then do the smart thing and take advantage of that. Don't join the madness. That's amateurish.

meh, like i already said, i won last year, not really being too anal about it this year, so i'm willing to be "amateurish", and an idiot, and a lunatic...and stupid :P

[ConnSKINS26]

Its your draft, do as you like. I'm just reiterating that that's a terrible way to go about trying to win a fantasy league. But if you have multiple owners who would take RG3 in the first couple rounds of a redraft populating your specific league...then I honestly think you can probably do whatever the hell you want and win that league. No offense.

[JPCreativelab]

Its your draft, do as you like. I'm just reiterating that that's a terrible way to go about trying to win a fantasy league. But if you have multiple owners who would take RG3 in the first couple rounds of a redraft populating your specific league...then I honestly think you can probably do whatever the hell you want and win that league. No offense.

haha im trying not to take offense but in a round about way, you have called me and now my friends many variations of "stupid"...i really dont know what i will do when the draft comes along, just saying i wouldnt mind having RGIII on my team and since i do very well in my leagues, i might take him very early in one just to have him, it wont be the end of the world to me that the fantasy purest want to call me stupid for it, i really dont care.

[ConnSKINS26]

haha im trying not to take offense but in a round about way, you have called me and now my friends many variations of "stupid"...i really dont know what i will do when the draft comes along, just saying i wouldnt mind having RGIII on my team and since i do very well in my leagues, i might take him very early in one just to have him, it wont be the end of the world to me that the fantasy purest want to call me stupid for it, i really dont care.

Sorry, I really wasn't trying to be offensive, despite the wording of my posts. Let me put it another way:

I wouldn't have much fun in a league where either I or the competition could get away with drafting a player with an ADP in the 7th at the earliest, in the 1st. That's not fun for me. But then, that's why I stopped playing redraft a couple years ago.

[JPCreativelab]

Sorry, I really wasn't trying to be offensive, despite the wording of my posts. Let me put it another way:

I wouldn't have much fun in a league where either I or the competition could get away with drafting a player with an ADP in the 7th at the earliest, in the 1st. That's not fun for me. But then, that's why I stopped playing redraft a couple years ago.

no offense taken man, and i get what you are saying and i agree with you. im just talking out my butt i think, when it comes down to it, as much as i would like to have him on my team, i would prolly take Rivers over him in the early rounds. it will just make my stomach hurt to watch him go off on some puke fans team and i cant root against RGIII

[DogofWar1]

I'm trying to temper my expectations, so my hypothetical stats for him are most likely on the low end of what they actually will be. Namely, I'm expecting about 3200 yards, 20 TDs, and 16 INTs. He could do much much better, and probably not a whole lot worse. Still he's not someone I would take as a QB1. As a backup though, definitely, and he's always got the chance to bust out and be worth tons of points, which could net some nice trades. So wherever you take your backup QB it's probably appropriate to take him. For me, that'd be, at earliest, round 7, but probably closer to 9 or 10.

Davis, imo, is easily a TE1. Early 4th round selection, if the meta is RB, QB, WR, TE for the first 4 rounds.

Garcon is probably fine as a WR2. There are definitely some better guys out there, but Garcon should put up very nice numbers this year. Probably earliest I'd look at him is round 6, as my #2 WR, though I'd prefer to snag him closer to round 7 or 8.

Morgan, Hankerson, and Moss I'd view initially as WR3 or Flex guys. They should pull in some nice stats, especially Moss, since he'll be our #1 slot guy and thus should see a consistent # of looks each week, but Morgan and Hankerson have some breakout potential. Moss I'd probably snag somewhere around round 10, and Morgan and Hankerson I'd take in the early teens. The ideal situation is probably to have a couple Redskins WRs on the bench, and then once they shake out and RGIII finds a favored target, put that guy in and maybe drop the other ones.

Honestly, I'm not touching any Redskins RBs, at least not until the season shakes out a bit. Everyone of my friends who had Redskins RBs last year got burned at some point (except for me with Torain, because I traded him after his 135 yard week).

The Redskins defense should be pretty good this year too. I wouldn't take them in the top 5 defenses, but one could make an argument for top 10, and definitely top 15. And while I hate to mention it since it finally seemed to die down, if Talib comes here and looks good, it might bump up the defense in general, but not by too much. Which round they go depends on how much people in your league care about defenses.

And if we're talking about leagues with defensive players, getting points for tackles and sacks and INTs, I'd probably pick Redskins in the order of Fletcher, Orakpo, Kerrigan, Riley, Meriweather, Cofield, Jenkins, Hall, with maybe a couple others who could rise up. The thing is, those leagues usually call for 2 players, so most likely I'd be looking at Fletcher, Orakpo, and Kerrigan. I'd probably draft them in the last 3 rounds of whatever draft you've got going, or just leave them undrafted.

And I'd probably leave Gano undrafted until we see if the line holds up or not. If it does, he's probably fine, if not, then he's not gonna be that great.

And OP, having just read your article, I see your thinking is almost exactly the same as mine, though our TE meta seems different.

[SirClintonPortis]

Draft Tom Brady in the first. Draft RGIII in the second. Trade Tommy after a hot game for some goodies. lol

[Drop]

lol @ this thread......Conn, i'm gonna create a meme for it.

[ConnSKINS26]

Please do!