The Fiscal Cliff thread.

[JMS]

Is this the end for Boehner?

He couldn't find votes for a tax bill blessed by Norquist. The guy is a joke.

If you are playing chicken and you think the other guy is either crazy or out of control... It doesn't work to your advantage but his.

The fact that the GOP house is controlled by ideologues who won't even support the one sided bill their own party drafted to make the Democrats look bad. A bill entirely crafted by Boehner which no democrat supported and the White house said it would veto.
That doesn't bode well for ultimately reaching a compromise on a bill both parties could support. It basically says the house republicans won't compromise and aren't concerned with the economic consequences or the fact that they will be holding the lions share of the political blame.

---------- Post added December-21st-2012 at 10:37 AM ----------

No, democrats get to vote too on a bill. Boehner just needs the reasonable republicans to vote for something that the democrats get behind.

Which ones are those? I guess reasonable is a sliding scale based on who is there. Boehner will be the architect of any deal coming out of of the House, and nobody has every confused Boehner with being reasonable.

[Fergasun]

Which ones are those? I guess reasonable is a sliding scale based on who is there. Boehner will be the architect of any deal coming out of of the House, and nobody has every confused Boehner with being reasonable.

That's right. I bet the GOP will be going for a "win" by simply kicking the can down the road 2 months; doing whatever it does on taxes and then trying to trade entitlement reforms for the debt ceiling. Do they not understand that some people (I hope it is not only me?) are sick of having these intense budget debates every 6-18 months or so? The GOP has already shown that they aren't really willing to breach the debt ceiling... if I was a Democratic strategist I would start laying the groundwork for a debt ceiling breach. Or, simply throw the GOP some bone on entitlement reform (chained CPI).

The whole point behind Bowles-Simpson was to show how members from both parties could come up with a reasonable compromise; and they basically put everything on the table (except for Obamacare). If the GOP (or Boehner) really wanted a long term deal they could have gotten one before the election... as it is I don't think there will be anything long-term until before the next election (2014), and if they want to get going on tax reform, the GOP (Boehner) need to get beyond the budget fight and start crafting that tax reform legislation, because tax reform will take more than 1 year and it will be a bloody fight as lobbyists line up to protect their own. As it is, they can't even get to working on tax reform because they keep getting strung up by the budget.

This is really effing maddening to me... and I blame the GOP. They put all their chips on a table for a Romney win, and at the very least gaining the Senate and don't have a strategy for dealing with the goverment we've given them. Instead of simply punting on budget issues for a long time (2-3 years); they continue to hold the government hostage over budget issues and not accomplish anything of what they could be trying to do. I honestly don't see the difference between "not passing a budget" (like the Senate has done) and "passing such an extreme budget that it won't go 5 steps beyond the House" (which the House has done). They want spending cuts; but when the time comes to get those spending cuts they don't want to forgo a debt ceiling fight. I know conservatives were calling for a "retreat" back to the debt ceiling fight in March. Really conservatives? Shouldn't the lessen be "we can't win on the budget alone, even with a struggling economy." Look, no matter what Obama and the Democrats have got a lot of leverage; be graceful, get the best deal you can and then try to win on your message of "entitlement reforms and out of control spending" in 2014. If you really believed in out of control spending you would simply stop extending the debt ceiling every time and get on your moral high horse.

Oh; and the chart posted regarding what happens due to sequestration? I would love to see what Goldman calculated as far as the hit on GDP is the GOP House backed budget was passed... gotta be worse than sequestration.

---------- Post added December-21st-2012 at 08:03 AM ----------

... and if you want entitlement reform come up with something less extreme than what Ryan has been pushing....

[megared]

Couldn't disagree more. The public already sees the GOP as the far too extreme party. Right now Obama seems reasonable while the GOP House does not. If things go south badly, it will be remembered as the time when the GOP killed the American economy to protect the richest amongst us. Not the polices that didn't pass because Obama wouldn't buckle to these people.

This House will go down in infamy, make no mistakes about it. But when we're talking about Obama's legacy, he'll still be tied to this mess, especially if the vision he gave the American people isn't executed because he was too busy trying to give the appearance of 'compromise' and 'progress'. Think of the gall of Clinton to shut the government down the year before an election. Remember, House Republicans demanded a balanced budget (and got it for 4 years) and that is associated with Clinton's term, and his legacy benefited from it.

This really sets the stage as to how he'll negotiate moving forward in his second term. He honestly should take the deal he laid forth prior to Plan B off the table. There's zero indications that it would've gotten through the House and right now he's offered too much to get too little.

[Buford]

We heard this same line before the election. This is on him....and the voters said "Wait....this **** was going down before he was even elected the 1st time. Now the folks who crashed the car are complaining about the tow truck driver".

His leverage just went through the roof. Boehner is fighting for his own survival. The GOP can't even agree what they stand for. Can't compare this to the 90's. You had Clinton and a far less extreme GOP at the time.

Obama can get up there and say "Look, tax cuts for everybody making under X" over and over. What is the GOP saying?

[JMS]

Well I already know I'm taking a big hit due to the payroll tax going back up. I would be surprised if the Bush tax cuts don't return as the "Obama Tax Cuts"

Big Hit? They are arguing worst case about a 3% tax hike for folks earning more than 250k.. 3%!! There is nothing about a compromise here, which is big or dramatic.

It already looks like the compromise position of the GOP and Dems is even going to be more modest hikes... smaller take increase beginning at $500,000 or something like that... It's preposterous this is such a huge deal given where we are financially as a country.

---------- Post added December-21st-2012 at 11:47 AM ----------

[/COLOR]... and if you want entitlement reform come up with something less extreme than what Ryan has been pushing....

Ryan is a tool box. He's a guy who voted 5 times to increase the debt ceiling under Bush, but as soon as a democrat is in charge he decides it's politically expedient to become ideologically intransigent.
Dude voted for every one of Bush's budgets.. Including our first two trillion dollar deficit bills... but again as soon as we get a democrat in office he can't find it within himself to vote for a budget that doesn't
roll back all the social programs since the new deal.

The country has it's credit rating reduced for the first time in American History largely because of Ryan's( and other house GOP members) intractability and still than want to play politics on revenue and debt bills..

[megared]

We heard this same line before the election. This is on him....and the voters said "Wait....this **** was going down before he was even elected the 1st time. Now the folks who crashed the car are complaining about the tow truck driver".

His leverage just went through the roof. Boehner is fighting for his own survival. The GOP can't even agree what they stand for. Can't compare this to the 90's. You had Clinton and a far less extreme GOP at the time.

Obama can get up there and say "Look, tax cuts for everybody making under X" over and over. What is the GOP saying?

Obama's had the advantage of extreme leverage since reelection. He's not using it. It appears that he's more likely to cave into extending the tax cuts for everyone than he is to revert the rates for households making over 250K. He shouldn't even negotiate with Boehner anymore...as it's obvious he has no power to deliver House GOP votes on anything he may personally agree with.

The point about Clinton was, everyone uses him & his presidency as an example of fiscal responsibility, even though a government shutdown facilitated it.

The deal Obama put forth earlier isn't making anyone happy, democrats or republicans. The income from the relatively few households making over 400K isn't going to have nearly the effect that it would on incomes over $250K. Chained CPI's effect on Social Security is pretty much minimal, as it pertains to reducing spending. Because there's so much disagreement over every step of the process, maybe they can start over in negotiating the things they agree upon, separately in January...without the guise of some 'Great Deal' encompassing all of these items that should probably be considered on their own merits.

[JMS]

Obama's had the advantage of extreme leverage since reelection. He's not using it. It appears that he's more likely to cave into extending the tax cuts for everyone than he is to revert the rates for households making over 250K. He shouldn't even negotiate with Boehner anymore...as it's obvious he has no power to deliver House GOP votes on anything he may personally agree with.

Boehner can't deliver 218 votes out of 234 republican seats in congress to pass the bill he wrote which no democrat supports and Obama said he would veto ( Boehner's plan B). But he probable can deliver 17 votes out of 234 republican seats in order to give the 201 democrats a floor vote, and winning majority...

Maybe.

[megared]

Boehner can't deliver 218 votes out of 234 republican seats in congress to pass the bill he wrote which no democrat supports and Obama said he would veto ( Boehner's plan B). But he probable can deliver 17 votes out of 234 republican seats in order to give the 201 democrats a floor vote, and winning majority...

Maybe.

I don't think he can. And the White House would be foolish to keep those concessions now that they see he has no leverage, even with his own Party. Do you really make all of those compromises to get 17 votes, when everyone's been saying that the higher taxes was a mandate by almost 70 million people? It doesn't hurt Obama to wait until January and do exactly what he wants to do.

Boehner pulled conservatives off of their committees, threatened whoever else he could influence, and still couldn't get 218 votes. He should just resign. Any of those 17 that vote for this budget would also face a fierce primary.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

It did hit me this morning though that we finally have a third party in government that so many people have wanted. Well, maybe its not the third party everyone wanted, but what essentially has happened is that the Tea Party has said, "no, we're not going along with you on the biggest issues of the day." Sounds like a different party to me.

[JMS]

I don't think he can. And the White House would be foolish to keep those concessions now that they see he has no leverage, even with his own Party. Do you really make all of those compromises to get 17 votes, when everyone's been saying that the higher taxes was a mandate by almost 70 million people? It doesn't hurt Obama to wait until January and do exactly what he wants to do.

It's already hurting the economy.. If Obama wants to avoid the fiscal cliff he's got to negotiate, and if he wants to blame the GOP for going over the fiscal cliff he's got to be seen as willing to negotiate while they aren't...
I would make the concessions to pass a bill and show the country has some sort of reasonable legislature... rather than prove the opposite..

Boehner pulled conservatives off of their committees, threatened whoever else he could influence, and still couldn't get 218 votes. He should just resign. Any of those 17 that vote for this budget would also face a fierce primary.

Boehner pulled the tea party guys who doubled down on Grover Norquist off of the committees he needed to get votes from in preparation for a compromise. Any compromise bill would need to get out of committee before he could have a floor vote on it. As such those tea party guys who said they would not support any new taxes were in a strategic position to block any compromise, so they had to go. This is different. This was Boehner asking for votes on a bill everybody understood up front was going nowhere. It was DOE in the Senate, and the President already said he would veto it.

The impass now as I understand it is not on the tax increases any longer... Boehner wants to tie the comprimise on the tax increase to spending cuts. Obama want's two separate deal.s... That drove Boehner to propose a separate plan B tax bill he could support.

---------- Post added December-21st-2012 at 12:38 PM ----------

It did hit me this morning though that we finally have a third party in government that so many people have wanted. Well, maybe its not the third party everyone wanted, but what essentially has happened is that the Tea Party has said, "no, we're not going along with you on the biggest issues of the day." Sounds like a different party to me.

You think the tea party is the third party... I would say the GOP has become the third party as they are clearly less powerful than the tea party.

[Tulane Skins Fan]

You think the tea party is the third party... I would say the GOP has become the third party as they are clearly less powerful than the tea party.

Yea. I think there are still more GOPers than Tea Partiers in Congress. I could be wrong.

I mean, think about it though. They run on different platforms in primaries against republicans, they don't vote the same way on the big issues. The only thing that's keeping them in the GOP is namesake.

[Thiebear]

Yea. I think there are still more GOPers than Tea Partiers in Congress. I could be wrong.

I mean, think about it though. They run on different platforms in primaries against republicans, they don't vote the same way on the big issues. The only thing that's keeping them in the GOP is namesake.

I think Boehner kicked a couple off of committees recently not helping.
This is like the Blue Dog Democrats of a decade ago, as they are dissapearing. though they could be bought off making them different.

[Larry]

Another goodie, courtesy George Takei.

[Thiebear]

Going to Wiki, there looks to be approx. 60 TeaParty.
Boehner fired 3 of them from committee and then thought he would get enough votes to pass "Anything" after that.
That's like insulting your barber not think your going to end up with a Kirk Cousins.

CNN:
If the fiscal cliff isn't avoided, tax rates on income, estates, gifts, capital gains and dividends will increase, and a number of tax breaks will expire .
--------------------

I haven't gotten a raise in 4 years, finally got a token promotion last month and it looks like i'm going to lose 200$ a month. (this is craptacular).
And as predicted they "Wait until the final month" when we all know it's been coming for year after year after year. This fight they are having was needed in April.

If the Leadership doesn't get fired for incompetence they will just continue to pit us again each other in online threads while they just laugh and fail their way to the top.

[Fergasun]

Going to Wiki, there looks to be approx. 60 TeaParty.
Boehner fired 3 of them from committee and then thought he would get enough votes to pass "Anything" after that.
That's like insulting your barber not think your going to end up with a Kirk Cousins.

CNN:
If the fiscal cliff isn't avoided, tax rates on income, estates, gifts, capital gains and dividends will increase, and a number of tax breaks will expire .
--------------------

I haven't gotten a raise in 4 years, finally got a token promotion last month and it looks like i'm going to lose 200$ a month. (this is craptacular).
And as predicted they "Wait until the final month" when we all know it's been coming for year after year after year. This fight they are having was needed in April.

If the Leadership doesn't get fired for incompetence they will just continue to pit us again each other in online threads while they just laugh and fail their way to the top.

What I find most funny is that this dreaded "fiscal cliff" was set up by the same people who are fighting.... err... "negotiating" to avoid the fiscal cliff they themselves set up.

How can anyone take the position that government spending/government doesn't help the government after looking at Goldman Sachs (they were one I saw recently) or other analysis. If we have the cuts and tax increases that were agreed to it would be a 3% hit to GDP. Yet, this is pretty tame compared to what would happen if we got the GOP House Budget and their spending cuts.... GOP position should be to let the fiscal cliff occur and then accept the $250k tax cut level... just my opinion... ****ty policy for me personally but you can't complain about spending and deficits and then try to put it off constantly while still pretending to care!