2012 Fantasy Football Thread

[stevemcqueen1]

Just finished my 10 team $$ league, start 2 rb, 2 wr, and flex, no te required. Thoughts?
Romo, Locker
Foster, Mathews, Sproles, Ridley, Gerhart
Green, Nicks, Maclin, Titus Young, Britt
Seattle D
Matt Bryant

TE comes into play at the flex position?

Your team looks solid to me. Britt and Ridley are your bubble guys IMO. Take it from someone who owned Law Firm the past two years, it's a pain to try and figure out when to play a Patriots running back. Britt got arrested for like the 8th time this offseason. He's talented, but troubled and hard to rely on.

The one thing I'd worry about with your lineup is that every one of your W/Rs except Mathews is in a significant time share situation or the second option on their team--and Mathews is currently injured and will miss the first few weeks. It's going to be trickt to figure out when to play who.

[Elessar78]

My draft results. 12 team league, picked 12. Thoughts?

1. (12) Matt Forte
2. (13) Marshawn Lynch
3. (36) Wes Welker
4. (37) Marques Colston
5. (60) Eli Manning
6. (61) Tony Romo
7. (84) Darrius Heyward-Bey
8. (85) Evan Royster
9. (108) Robbie Gould
10. (109) New England
11. (132) Navorro Bowman
12. (133) Ben Tate
13. (156) Dustin Keller
14. (157) Carson Palmer
15. (180) Buffalo
16. (181) Jon Baldwin
17. (204) Dallas Clark

We play with a flex position and a def player (hence bowman)

[Fight4RGIII]

I just finished my draft, 14 teams, PPR, 5 pts Pass Tds, 6 all other tds QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, K D

QB: Cutler/R. WIlson
WR: B. Marshall/Welker/Bowe/Blackmon/Baldwin
RB: McFadden/Turner/D.Williams/D.WIlson
TE: T.Gonzo/Moeki
K: Nugent
D: Buffalo

What do you think? Keep in mind it is 14 teams haha.

---------- Post added September-2nd-2012 at 08:49 PM ----------

My draft results. 12 team league, picked 12. Thoughts?

1. (12) Matt Forte
2. (13) Marshawn Lynch
3. (36) Wes Welker
4. (37) Marques Colston
5. (60) Eli Manning
6. (61) Tony Romo
7. (84) Darrius Heyward-Bey
8. (85) Evan Royster
9. (108) Robbie Gould
10. (109) New England
11. (132) Navorro Bowman
12. (133) Ben Tate
13. (156) Dustin Keller
14. (157) Carson Palmer
15. (180) Buffalo
16. (181) Jon Baldwin
17. (204) Dallas Clark

We play with a flex position and a def player (hence bowman)

2 QB league?

[stevemcqueen1]

I like it a lot if Matthews comes back strong.

I just finished my draft, 14 teams, PPR, 5 pts Pass Tds, 6 all other tds QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, K D

QB: Cutler/R. WIlson
WR: B. Marshall/Welker/Bowe/Blackmon/Baldwin
RB: McFadden/Turner/D.Williams/D.WIlson
TE: T.Gonzo/Moeki
K: Nugent
D: Buffalo

What do you think? Keep in mind it is 14 teams haha.

For 14 teams, that's not too bad. Draft format? Your first three picks were McFadden, Marshall, then Welker?

Your league format favors QBs, but I think your QB situation is weak and it could keep you from having a shot. I'd have gone QB within the first three rounds to make sure I got a decent starter, even if I had to reach for Matt Ryan or Mike Vick.

Cutler seems like he's got a ton of upside and you can talk yourself into the Bears offense making a huge leap but as someone who has owned Cutler several times, he will disappoint you and fail to meet your expectations. He'll look like a top tier stud one week and then the next look like other crap. The good fantasy QBs give you a solid baseline every single week and never give you less than 17-18 points or so. That's what you want at the position.

McFadden will be a high end RB1 until he gets hurt. It'll happen, but hopefully not as early as it did last year.

Turner is cooked and has no PPR value. Not really sure what to make of the Carolina backfield, but the upside feels minimal with Deangelo Williams at this point in his career. You never know though. I'd be higher on David Wilson if the Giants running game hadn't been so bad last season and if he were a more dependable back. He's a hard running big play guy but he's also got very questionable decision making and running instincts and gets a lot of big negative plays that might frustrate Coughlin. He does catch the ball well though.

Marshall has been a trendy pick now that he's back with Cutler and I think he'll produce for you, especially in PPR format. I don't know that he'll be a top five receiver like people are thinking though. It's been over three years since he was good.

I think Welker will be an absolute stud for you and will definitely be your best player.

Not sure what to make of Bowe this year but holdouts are never positive and he's absolutely the type to come into the year out of shape. I think it'll be a while before he starts to produce.

Blackmon was a shrewd pick though. I think he's going to be immediately good, a high receptions guy, and I think he'll be your third starting receiver most of the year. Baldwin is kind of meh, but he should be the #1 receiver on that team right? Even bad teams move the ball.

[Fight4RGIII]

For 14 teams, that's not too bad. Draft format? Your first three picks were McFadden, Marshall, then Welker?

Your league format favors QBs, but I think your QB situation is weak and it could keep you from having a shot. I'd have gone QB within the first three rounds to make sure I got a decent starter, even if I had to reach for Matt Ryan or Mike Vick.

Cutler seems like he's got a ton of upside and you can talk yourself into the Bears offense making a huge leap but as someone who has owned Cutler several times, he will disappoint you and fail to meet your expectations. He'll look like a top tier stud one week and then the next look like other crap. The good fantasy QBs give you a solid baseline every single week and never give you less than 17-18 points or so. That's what you want at the position.

McFadden will be a high end RB1 until he gets hurt. It'll happen, but hopefully not as early as it did last year.

Turner is cooked and has no PPR value. Not really sure what to make of the Carolina backfield, but the upside feels minimal with Deangelo Williams at this point in his career. You never know though. I'd be higher on David Wilson if the Giants running game hadn't been so bad last season and if he were a more dependable back. He's a hard running big play guy but he's also got very questionable decision making and running instincts and gets a lot of big negative plays that might frustrate Coughlin. He does catch the ball well though.

Marshall has been a trendy pick now that he's back with Cutler and I think he'll produce for you, especially in PPR format. I don't know that he'll be a top five receiver like people are thinking though. It's been over three years since he was good.

I think Welker will be an absolute stud for you and will definitely be your best player.

Not sure what to make of Bowe this year but holdouts are never positive and he's absolutely the type to come into the year out of shape. I think it'll be a while before he starts to produce.

Blackmon was a shrewd pick though. I think he's going to be immediately good, a high receptions guy, and I think he'll be your third starting receiver most of the year. Baldwin is kind of meh, but he should be the #1 receiver on that team right? Even bad teams move the ball.

Yeah, I went McFadden (Risky I know and I expect him to get hurt at some point, hopefully it won't be season ending), Marshall then Welker. If Cutler stays healthy, I think I'll be fine, especially since he loves throwing to Marshall. Turner was sitting there at the 49th pick so I grabbed him as my 2nd RB. I'm hoping Wilson breaks out but at least Turner is a starter considering in my league, there will be 28 RB's starting every week.

[stevemcqueen1]

What do you people think of trent richardson and cam?

Cam was the fifth best QB and a top ten player overall in most formats. In my league that scores passing TDs at 6, he was the 7th most valuable player in fantasy. He had one point more value greater than the delta at his position than LeSean McCoy did.

I see 0 chance of him repeating that kind of season. His value came chiefly from the fact he got 14 rushing TDs. That's not going to happen again. Carolina won't run him like they did last year and no QB has ever had two consecutive rushing seasons like that. He threw 18 TDs as a rookie, and you aren't likely to see that number climb much. His yardage totals should be above 4,000 again, but you can't expect any QB to rack up 30+ passing TDs and keep their INT totals down in their second year. So in short, I doubt Cam owners are going to get what they pay for this year. I don't think you'll see him start rocking again for fantasy purposes until his third or fourth year.

I think Trent Richardson will be a beast personally. He's a transcendent talent and he's sure to have massive opportunity. I think he'll lead the league in carries this year. Adrian Peterson was a similar talent and was immediately one of the best fantasy backs in the league as a rookie. I think Trent has the best chance of matching that type production of any back since AP. I think he'll get 330+ carries and catch a ton of passes.

---------- Post added September-2nd-2012 at 09:18 PM ----------

Yeah, I went McFadden (Risky I know and I expect him to get hurt at some point, hopefully it won't be season ending), Marshall then Welker. If Cutler stays healthy, I think I'll be fine, especially since he loves throwing to Marshall. Turner was sitting there at the 49th pick so I grabbed him as my 2nd RB. I'm hoping Wilson breaks out but at least Turner is a starter considering in my league, there will be 28 RB's starting every week.

Yeah 14 teams is monstrous, but I don't think Turner is going to start for you for long. He looks really broken down now. I think your WR situation is really good for a 14 team league starting three receivers. But WRs don't typically win fantasy leagues.

Is it Doug Baldwin or Jon Baldwin?

I think Cutler is going to let you down though. There is a significant dip in quality from the first and second tier of QBs to him IMO, especially for a 5 pt TD format. You are going to have a really, really, really tough time beating the teams with Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. And honestly, without a great QB situation or at least two elite running backs, I don't think you can win your league. It's a good bet the team that wins your league will have two of the top five RBs or one of the three elite QBs and a top ten RB.

[Fight4RGIII]

Cam was the fifth best QB and a top ten player overall in most formats. In my league that scores passing TDs at 6, he was the 7th most valuable player in fantasy. He had one point more value greater than the delta at his position than LeSean McCoy did.

I see 0 chance of him repeating that kind of season. His value came chiefly from the fact he got 14 rushing TDs. That's not going to happen again. Carolina won't run him like they did last year and no QB has ever had two consecutive rushing seasons like that. He threw 18 TDs as a rookie, and you aren't likely to see that number climb much. His yardage totals should be above 4,000 again, but you can't expect any QB to rack up 30+ passing TDs and keep their INT totals down in their second year. So in short, I doubt Cam owners are going to get what they pay for this year. I don't think you'll see him start rocking again for fantasy purposes until his third or fourth year.

I think Trent Richardson will be a beast personally. He's a transcendent talent and he's sure to have massive opportunity. I think he'll lead the league in carries this year. Adrian Peterson was a similar talent and was immediately one of the best fantasy backs in the league as a rookie. I think Trent has the best chance of matching that type production of any back since AP. I think he'll get 330+ carries and catch a ton of passes.

---------- Post added September-2nd-2012 at 09:18 PM ----------



Yeah 14 teams is monstrous, but I don't think Turner is going to start for you for long. He looks really broken down now. I think your WR situation is really good for a 14 team league starting three receivers. But WRs don't typically win fantasy leagues.

Is it Doug Baldwin or Jon Baldwin?

I think Cutler is going to let you down though. There is a significant dip in quality from the first and second tier of QBs to him IMO, especially for a 5 pt TD format. You are going to have a really, really, really tough time beating the teams with Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. And honestly, without a great QB situation or at least two elite running backs, I don't think you can win your league. It's a good bet the team that wins your league will have two of the top five RBs or one of the three elite QBs and a top ten RB.

Doug Baldwin. I can't trust Cutler or be sure that Russell Wilson explodes but who knows, Joe Flacco was the QB on the winning team last year in my league.

[hail2theskins3]

Not a fan of those running backs. You went Megatron, Gronk, White with your first three picks?

Megatron, Gronk, Ryan, then White. Had the 8th pick. My strategy was value>need and after 2 rounds 9 QBs and 11 RBs were gone, so I loaded up on receivers. Hopefully I hit on at least one of my RBs and Matt Ryan can improve from last year.

[Elessar78]

I just finished my draft, 14 teams, PPR, 5 pts Pass Tds, 6 all other tds QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, K D

QB: Cutler/R. WIlson
WR: B. Marshall/Welker/Bowe/Blackmon/Baldwin
RB: McFadden/Turner/D.Williams/D.WIlson
TE: T.Gonzo/Moeki
K: Nugent
D: Buffalo

What do you think? Keep in mind it is 14 teams haha.

---------- Post added September-2nd-2012 at 08:49 PM ----------



2 QB league?

1 QB, 4 pts for passing TD

[stevemcqueen1]

Megatron, Gronk, Ryan, then White. Had the 8th pick. My strategy was value>need and after 2 rounds 9 QBs and 11 RBs were gone, so I loaded up on receivers. Hopefully I hit on at least one of my RBs and Matt Ryan can improve from last year.

Ryan was already pretty good last year. I think he'll be good for you, and I do think his numbers will improve a bit.

Usually makes sense not to reach for needs but the issue with receivers is that even the best ones have significantly lesser value greater than the delta at their positions than the best QBs and RBs.

Megatron is a bit of an exception. He was good for 114 points greater than the 20th WR in standard scoring last year. Meaning, he scored 114 points more than the worst starting WR in a 10 team league. That's 9th among all players, just ahead of Mojo. But the problem is Megatron has very little chance of even coming close to his numbers from last year IMO. For one thing, he's on the cover of Madden. The cover curse strikes every single year. Second, great TD totals are almost never repeated by skill position players.

After Megatron, the next highest WR from last season was Jordy Nelson with 70, which is a HUGE dropoff. Nelson was in a tier with Welker and Cruz who had 67 and 59 respectively. After them, the next tier dropped down into the 30s.

In short, few receivers are big time difference makers, and even when they are, they make less of a difference than the best QBs and RBs. That's why receivers don't typically win guys their fantasy leagues. What you can realistically expect is that Megatron and White will be above average at their position most weeks but the monster point totals that win you your matchups might elude you.

Re: Gronk, I'm not really sure what to make of him. For one thing, I doubt he comes even close to last year's TD totals this season and so people are buying high on him and paying for last year's TD production. For another thing, he's had a bad offseason and that kind of stuff can carry over into the year. There has also been talk that Brady favors Aaron Hernandez, which doesn't surprise me because Hernandez is every bit the blue chipper Gronk is. I think he should be good for you, but I don't think he comes even close to putting up the monstrous value above replacement level scoring that he did last season.

Your RB situation is going to be tough to figure out, especially early. You can milk Jennings for a couple weeks most likely. Redman, I'm not sure about. Not a fan of Kevin Smith, I don't think you'll get a ton there. Green Ellis at least gets TDs and he should start, but as a former owner of him for two years, you may get one week all season where he goes out and wins your matchup for you. Kendall Hunter is talented but part of a crowded backfield so his opportunities could be hard to predict. Knowing when to start him might be tricky. Peyton Hillis could be solid for you. He's been productive in the past, the Chiefs are going to be run heavy, and he'll get the goal line work. He'll probably be your RB1 by the end of the year. But unless someone surprises or you can get a nice waiver wire pickup or trade, you could be facing a situation by midseason where you're forced to start Green-Ellis and Hillis every week. That's not a great situation.

---------- Post added September-2nd-2012 at 10:49 PM ----------

Doug Baldwin. I can't trust Cutler or be sure that Russell Wilson explodes but who knows, Joe Flacco was the QB on the winning team last year in my league.

Hmm. Who were the running backs on his team? Last year the guy who won my league in a QB friendly format had Drew Brees, Michael Turner, and Marshawn Lynch. I rode Aaron Rodgers and a handful of middling backs and receivers to an 11-3 record and second place just by micromanaging the crap out of my matchups. It sucked to have to do and I needed a lot of luck and I was utterly reliant on Rodgers. And in the end, I knew I couldn't beat the man with the elite QB and at least one top ten RB.

Speaking of Flacco, I think he could put up good fantasy production this year. The trend is for teams to become more pass heavy as their QBs grow and Flacco is entering his fifth season. He's got solid passing weapons and he's a big time arm talent that likes to air it out.

Years 4 and 5 is where most QBs make a statistical leap as passers.

[hail2theskins3]

Ryan was already pretty good last year. I think he'll be good for you, and I do think his numbers will improve a bit.

Usually makes sense not to reach for needs but the issue with receivers is that even the best ones have significantly lesser value greater than the delta at their positions than the best QBs and RBs.

Megatron is a bit of an exception. He was good for 114 points greater than the 20th WR in standard scoring last year. Meaning, he scored 114 points more than the worst starting WR in a 10 team league. That's 9th among all players, just ahead of Mojo. But the problem is Megatron has very little chance of even coming close to his numbers from last year IMO. For one thing, he's on the cover of Madden. The cover curse strikes every single year. Second, great TD totals are almost never repeated by skill position players.

After Megatron, the next highest WR from last season was Jordy Nelson with 70, which is a HUGE dropoff. Nelson was in a tier with Welker and Cruz who had 67 and 59 respectively. After them, the next tier dropped down into the 30s.

In short, few receivers are big time difference makers, and even when they are, they make less of a difference than the best QBs and RBs. That's why receivers don't typically win guys their fantasy leagues. What you can realistically expect is that Megatron and White will be above average at their position most weeks but the monster point totals that win you your matchups might elude you.

Re: Gronk, I'm not really sure what to make of him. For one thing, I doubt he comes even close to last year's TD totals this season and so people are buying high on him and paying for last year's TD production. For another thing, he's had a bad offseason and that kind of stuff can carry over into the year. There has also been talk that Brady favors Aaron Hernandez, which doesn't surprise me because Hernandez is every bit the blue chipper Gronk is. I think he should be good for you, but I don't think he comes even close to putting up the monstrous value above replacement level scoring that he did last season.

Your RB situation is going to be tough to figure out, especially early. You can milk Jennings for a couple weeks most likely. Redman, I'm not sure about. Not a fan of Kevin Smith, I don't think you'll get a ton there. Green Ellis at least gets TDs and he should start, but as a former owner of him for two years, you may get one week all season where he goes out and wins your matchup for you. Kendall Hunter is talented but part of a crowded backfield so his opportunities could be hard to predict. Knowing when to start him might be tricky. Peyton Hillis could be solid for you. He's been productive in the past, the Chiefs are going to be run heavy, and he'll get the goal line work. He'll probably be your RB1 by the end of the year. But unless someone surprises or you can get a nice waiver wire pickup or trade, you could be facing a situation by midseason where you're forced to start Green-Ellis and Hillis every week. That's not a great situation.

---------- Post added September-2nd-2012 at 10:49 PM ----------



Hmm. Who were the running backs on his team? Last year the guy who won my league in a QB friendly format had Drew Brees, Michael Turner, and Marshawn Lynch. I rode Aaron Rodgers and a handful of middling backs and receivers to an 11-3 record and second place just by micromanaging the crap out of my matchups. It sucked to have to do and I needed a lot of luck and I was utterly reliant on Rodgers. And in the end, I knew I couldn't beat the man with the elite QB and at least one top ten RB.

Speaking of Flacco, I think he could put up good fantasy production this year. The trend is for teams to become more pass heavy as their QBs grow and Flacco is entering his fifth season. He's got solid passing weapons and he's a big time arm talent that likes to air it out.

Years 4 and 5 is where most QBs make a statistical leap as passers.

I agree with you about how it can be dangerous to draft guys after high TD seasons, but I it's hard to find any other WR or TE that have had the size and skill set of Calvin and Gronk (or at least that's what I keep telling myself). I think I might try to sweet talk someone into taking Gronk and Hillis/Green-Ellis/Smith for a top RB and average TE.

[stevemcqueen1]

I agree with you about how it can be dangerous to draft guys after high TD seasons, but I it's hard to find any other WR or TE that have had the size and skill set of Calvin and Gronk (or at least that's what I keep telling myself). I think I might try to sweet talk someone into taking Gronk and Hillis/Green-Ellis/Smith for a top RB and average TE.

If you can do it, I'd seriously consider it. That would balance out your roster with a good WR, QB, and RB. I think you'd be selling high on Gronk. RBs carry risks too though, it's always hard to tell who the great seasons are going to be, and the guys with Rice, Foster, and McCoy probably aren't going to give them up for anybody.

Since you've got Hillis, Jamaal Charles might make some sense to pursue so you can handcuff them. I really like Fred Jackson personally. He's going to get a ton of touches and the Buffalo OL is monstrous. He performed like an absolute stud before he went down last year, but his injury was a broken bone, not ligament damage. It's probably healed clean and he won't need a protracted amount of time to recover like the guys coming off knee ligament injuries. I've gotten Jackson in almost all my leagues.

I also think Trent Richardson is going to be elite, but trading Gronk for an injured rookie who missed the preseason is a tough pill to swallow. That'd be your swing for the fences move. Trent is a transcendent talent on par with Adrian Peterson. The Browns are barren at the skill positions and are going to just feed Trent once he's ready to go. He's a one man band that can do it all and he catches the ball at an elite level too so you'll get that bonus from him that Peterson owners never got. I think there is a good chance Trent leads the league in carries this season. I also think the Cleveland OL has a ton of extant talent on it and is set to be really good.

If you could trade Gronk for Richardson and something else, that'd be an attractive deal to me. But keep in mind it could easily fall through. Rookie RBs have struggled recently and Trent has been injured after all. You'd expect him to need some time to get up to speed even if he's healthy. His owners should be patient with him early.

If you need a replacement level TE, try Kyle Rudolph or Coby Fleener. They're likely to be FAs in your league. Rudolph is an elite talent when healthy, reminiscent of Gronk. He's massive, a very natural receiver, quality blocker, playing on a team with Percy Harvin as the only other significant weapon and a young QB that will need some security to lean on.

Fleener is a tremendous receiving TE and, though a rookie, should have built in chemistry with Andrew Luck. He can't block, but hopefully that won't keep him off the field. Luck leaned on his TEs in college and was comfortable working the ball to them. I expect a lot of the same early in his NFL career. He'll throw the ball a ton and probably target his TEs a ton. You could get these guys for nothing right now probably, if you need a replacement for Gronk.

[NLC1054]

Here's the team I drafted for my personal 12 team league...

QBs: Matthew Stafford/Matt Schaub
WR: Jordy Nelson/Eric Decker/Justin Blackmon/Lance Moore/Brandon Lafell
RB: Steven Jackson/Willis McGahee/Ahmad Bradshaw/Ben Tate/Robert Turbin
TE: Rob Gronkowski/Greg Olsen/Kyle Rudolph
K: Mike Nugent
DEF: New York Jets

I think I made out pretty well. Thoughts?

[stevemcqueen1]

Here's the team I drafted for my personal 12 team league...

QBs: Matthew Stafford/Matt Schaub
WR: Jordy Nelson/Eric Decker/Justin Blackmon/Lance Moore/Brandon Lafell
RB: Steven Jackson/Willis McGahee/Ahmad Bradshaw/Ben Tate/Robert Turbin
TE: Rob Gronkowski/Greg Olsen/Kyle Rudolph
K: Mike Nugent
DEF: New York Jets

I think I made out pretty well. Thoughts?

Damn, you all get a big bench. How many TEs do you start? If only one, I'd consider dealing one of yours.

I like your team for standard scoring and QB friendly leagues. Schaub is a starting caliber player when healthy and might get you some trade value if he starts out really strong. Then again, you may want to hold onto him because Stafford has gotten hurt several different years.

Your receivers look pretty good and I think you'll end up starting Nelson and Blackmon mostly, working Decker in if he gets hot.

Your RB situation is a little more tenuous. Steven Jackson has been pretty healthy lately and looked strong in the preseason. He'll get carries. But I think he's got to be approaching his shelf life soon. When RBs hit the wall, it's sudden. They go from a 1200 yard season to like 400 and you'll never see it coming. You have to be afraid of that in drafting Jackson from now on.

McGahee should be at least a solid RB2 this year. Especially in 12 team leagues. Bradshaw is worth starting when he's healthy and is another solid RB2. Ben Tate would be a high end RB1 should the unthinkable happen and Foster go down. I like the Turbin pick. It's different and the guy is a good runningback. I think its only a matter of time before something happens to Marshawn Lynch and Turbin gets an opportunity. Seattle has a burgeoning offensive line and they run the ball. That could be a lotto ticket.

[TheREALJBird]

I have an 8 team league with some buddies where we each put in $100, wanted to do a 10 man but apparently people on base aren't interested in fantasy football. Anyways, here's my team, the format for starters are: 2QB, 2RB,2WR,1FLEX,1TE,1DEF

Team: QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger
RBs: Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Ryan Matthews
WRs: Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Hakeem Nicks,Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon
TEs: Jimmy Graham
K: Mason Crosby
DEF: Texans

Figuring out whether to start Nicks or Marshall in my other WR spot, leaning towards BMarsh as Chicago plays Indy and the Giants play Dallas who has decent corners plus Nicks has been nursing that foot.