2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database

[ConnSKINS26]

Davis was tied for the lead in targets this week.

I would agree that normally, the type of x-factor offensive playmakers we're talking about are found in the first round. Harvin, Best, Bush, Spiller. Cobb may be an exception, as well as Sproles but that was in a time when a player of his skills was less valued. McCluster was an attempt at a similar player, but he's not really what I'm looking for.

I think Denard Robinson may be an exception in that if you're comfortable with your projection of him as an explosive talent from the RB/WR/KR/PR positions, you may be able to get him later than your normal player of that skill-set....precisely BECAUSE he isn't proven in those categories. I could easily see him available in the 2nd to early 3rd. It all depends on how comfortable you are with his questions marks.

[darrelgreenie]

My early list of team needs in no particular order:

Disruptive/difference making defensive player
OT (starting caliber)
NT
Safety (starting caliber)
CB
RB

Haven't started looking at players too closely yet but who are the top FS and will they be available in the 2nd?

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't think you can fault Fred Davis for not being targeted often in this scheme.
I don't see how you can find a 'reggie bush' type player outside of the 1st round.
And even Spiller/Bush he took awhile to become 'playmakers'.
Again, I think playmakers emerge and imo drafting a player with the expectation that they're a immediate 'playmaker' is a recipe for dissappointment.

You're right about Spiller and Bush taking a while to emerge.

What about guys like Trent Richardson and Ray Rice and Chris Johnson though? They're very different stylistically from each other and from Bush/Spiller but it seems like they emerged quickly as playmakers. I know it's only one game in Richardson's case, but man if he didn't look like one of the most powerful weapons in the game in it, suggesting he's going to have a bright season and bright career.

You're probably right that you're not going to find a top tier playmaking running back outside the first round too often. Richardson obviously went very high and Johnson was a first rounder. Arian Foster and Ray Rice look like anomalies and not a realistic expectation. I'm looking at recent draft classes, and for all the talk of the RB position being devalued, it looks like the special looking ones are sill generally going in the first round:

2012:
- Trent Richardson
- Doug Martin
- David Wilson

2011:
- Mark Ingram
(Ryan Williams and Mikel Leshoure did fall into the second round though)

2010:
- Spiller
- Ryan Mathews (didn't think he was a high first round talent myself)
- Jahvid Best

2009:
- Knowshon Moreno
- Donald Brown (thought he was a reach too)
- Beanie Wells

2008:
- Darren McFadden
- Jonathan Stewart
- Felix Jones
- Rashard Mendenhall
- Chris Johnson

2007:
- Adrian Peterson
- Marshawn Lynch

But having just glanced at the running back rankings for this year, I'm impressed with the caliber of talent being ranked as second or third rounders. The fact that LeVeon Bell and Montee Ball are being projected as second rounders is astonishing to me. I have a hard time coming up with many players who would be bigger talents than them in the second round. A back like one of them could go off in our offense, early in their careers too IMO. And there is seemingly a good chance they'd be there in the second round.

Would you pull the trigger on those backs in the second? I don't think they'd be a recipe for disappointment.

[darrelgreenie]

Davis was tied for the lead in targets this week.

You're right that Davis has been targeted often enough.
But, to me its clear that the type of targets he's receiving this year indicate that he's not nearly the focal point he's been in recent years.
And in light of Davis past couple years where's he's been a top 10 or higher TE I doubt that he's suddenly become a less effective player as opposed to being a less featured player.

I would agree that normally, the type of x-factor offensive playmakers we're talking about are found in the first round. Harvin, Best, Bush, Spiller. Cobb may be an exception, as well as Sproles but that was in a time when a player of his skills was less valued. McCluster was an attempt at a similar player, but he's not really what I'm looking for.

I think Denard Robinson may be an exception in that if you're comfortable with your projection of him as an explosive talent from the RB/WR/KR/PR positions, you may be able to get him later than your normal player of that skill-set....precisely BECAUSE he isn't proven in those categories. I could easily see him available in the 2nd to early 3rd. It all depends on how comfortable you are with his questions marks.

Even looking at the players you listed above how many have proven themselves to be playmakers (much less immediate playmakers?). Imo Harvin is the only player of that group that is considered a playmaker and displayed that ability right away.
I question whether the rest other then Spiller are even considered playmakers and Spiller was a 1st round pick IIRC and was considered a dissappointment in many football media circles. (btw I love Spiller)

All I'm saying is that drafting a player with the idea that their position will be 'playmaker' isn't a draft strategy I would adopt, especially outside of the 1st round and in a role that player is foreign to playing.
I would prefer to draft BPA at a position of need and not chase after a particular position/player.

[stevemcqueen1]

Ellington would be the best out of all of them. Need speed and explosion.

I like Ellington. He's definitely a burner in the open field. But I don't think speed is the only thing or even the most important thing that determines playmaking ability for running backs. Most of these guys have the ability to run away from defenses when they've got a chance. Outside of Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden, very few have speed that's just on a whole different level. Outside of Reggie Bush, very few have balance and agility that's on a whole different level. But you still have a bunch of backs that have the ability to create for themselves and get chunk plays pretty regularly and dig your offense out of holes.

In fact, if you look at the state of the NFL right now, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and LeSean McCoy are probably the best backs in the league at the moment right? I don't remember their specific combine numbers, but I don't think any of them lit the world on fire with their speed.

Anyway, I like Marcus Lattimore a lot more than Ellington and would draft him over Ellington for sure. I like LeVeon Bell and Montee Ball over Ellington too. And while I haven't seen a ton of Knile Davis, everything I've heard of him impresses me and it sounds like he's a better prospect than Ellington.

[Dukes and Skins]

I like this guy Jake Stoneburner, a TE/WR from Ohio State. I'm also intrigued by Margus Hunt. And an Ellington would be a good fit in D.C. anway!

I seriously would love to see Ellington here in DC. Its a luxury pick, but goodness him and Morris would be a sick tandem

[stevemcqueen1]

All I'm saying is that drafting a player with the idea that their position will be 'playmaker' isn't a draft strategy I would adopt, especially outside of the 1st round and in a role that player is foreign to playing.
I would prefer to draft BPA at a position of need and not chase after a particular position/player.

I think I see what you're saying.

"Playmaker" is not a position, it's a quality a player has that often takes a while to develop/emerge. Is that accurate?

If that's what you mean, I agree with you. Playmaking typically gets tied to speed, and with good reason, so maybe people think they're getting an immediate playmaker when they get a fast player but it could be that he'll need a while to develop the other parts of his game to unleash that playmaking ability.

But I think playmaking is another way of saying "guy who can create for himself" either at QB, WR, TE, or RB. And I think it's an independent variable from speed. For instance, Arian Foster and Larry Fitzgerald are tremendous playmakers that create big plays for themselves despite neither having elite speed.

Although I shouldn't limit playmaking to just the skill positions because clearly defenders and offensive linemen can be players who have disproportionately high individual impact on the game.

[Dukes and Skins]

Haven't started looking at players too closely yet but who are the top FS and will they be available in the 2nd?

The Top FS right now IMO is Eric Reid from LSU he's a top 20 pick. After that you have a good mix of guys who are 2nd-3rd round FS/SS types. Matt Elam from Florida, Micah Hyde from Iowa, Kenny Vaccaro from Texas, TJ McDonald from USC

[stevemcqueen1]

Haven't started looking at players too closely yet but who are the top FS and will they be available in the 2nd?

Just going off CBS' rankings, it looks like these are the top ranked safeties for this year:

- Eric Reid, LSU
- TJ McDonald, USC
- Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma
- Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
- John Lester, Alabama
- Bacarri Rambo, Georgia
- Shawn Williams, Georgia

Right now, they've got McDonald and Reid rated as first rounders but it looks like everyone else is rated second round or later.

Personally, I like what I've seen from DJ Swearinger out of South Carolina, who they have ranked as a mid rounder. I really like Bacarri Rambo and I'm extremely impressed with Eric Reid. It's easy to see why he's getting first round burn. I've also seen some Kenny Vaccaro and he's looked good. It looks like a good safety class.

Ray Ray Armstrong got kicked out of Miami, so he'll have off field concerns, but his talent definitely pops when you watch him play. Could be a late round option because he can make plays.

---------- Post added September-17th-2012 at 07:52 PM ----------

The Top FS right now IMO is Eric Reid from LSU he's a top 20 pick. After that you have a good mix of guys who are 2nd-3rd round FS/SS types. Matt Elam from Florida, Micah Hyde from Iowa, Kenny Vaccaro from Texas, TJ McDonald from USC

What do you think about Baccari Rambo?

[Dukes and Skins]

Ray Ray is ineligible at the NAIA school IIRC so he's not even playing this year. Definitely a huge waste of talent.

---------- Post added September-17th-2012 at 07:58 PM ----------

What do you think about Baccari Rambo?

I forgot about Rambo actually on that list, but I mean he's a good S, but he's not the next great S like some are claiming him to be. He's a solid guy who will get turnovers, but also is overhyped

[darrelgreenie]

Would you pull the trigger on those backs in the second? I don't think they'd be a recipe for disappointment.

Oh, i hear yah.
You're talking to a guy who's favorite player in the NFL is a RB (AP) but, for this team I wouldn't draft a RB in the 2nd round.

I think/speculate that Kyle views this offense through the eyes of the QB+WRs and will always at heart be a passing focused playcaller and there is nothing wrong with that.
Not a value judgement but an observation^^

And, I don't believe a great runner can flourish without a coach focused on their success.
And historically Bobby+Mike have a good track record of finding productive backs in this system in the middle to late rounds.

Also, I like our current stable of backs and think we would have a greater bump in team benefit through addressing areas more in need of replacement/upgrade then RB.

---------- Post added September-17th-2012 at 08:19 PM ----------

....."Playmaker" is not a position, it's a quality a player has that often takes a while to develop/emerge. Is that accurate? {Yep} ......But I think playmaking is another way of saying "guy who can create for himself" either at QB, WR, TE, or RB. And I think it's an independent variable from speed. For instance, Arian Foster and Larry Fitzgerald are tremendous playmakers that create big plays for themselves despite neither having elite speed.

Although I shouldn't limit playmaking to just the skill positions because clearly defenders and offensive linemen can be players who have disproportionately high individual impact on the game.

Yep, this made me think of Fletcher that dude is a playmaker.
You need an INT to stop a drive and keep you in the ball game?
You absolutely need a turnover to give your offense another chance?

---------- Post added September-17th-2012 at 08:21 PM ----------

The Top FS right now IMO is Eric Reid from LSU he's a top 20 pick. After that you have a good mix of guys who are 2nd-3rd round FS/SS types. Matt Elam from Florida, Micah Hyde from Iowa, Kenny Vaccaro from Texas, TJ McDonald from USC

Just going off CBS' rankings, it looks like these are the top ranked safeties for this year:

- Eric Reid, LSU
- TJ McDonald, USC
- Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma
- Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
- John Lester, Alabama
- Bacarri Rambo, Georgia
- Shawn Williams, Georgia

Right now, they've got McDonald and Reid rated as first rounders but it looks like everyone else is rated second round or later.

Personally, I like what I've seen from DJ Swearinger out of South Carolina, who they have ranked as a mid rounder. I really like Bacarri Rambo and I'm extremely impressed with Eric Reid. It's easy to see why he's getting first round burn. I've also seen some Kenny Vaccaro and he's looked good. It looks like a good safety class.

Ray Ray Armstrong got kicked out of Miami, so he'll have off field concerns, but his talent definitely pops when you watch him play. Could be a late round option because he can make plays.

---------- Post added September-17th-2012 at 07:52 PM ----------



What do you think about Baccari Rambo?

Thanks, fellas.
I'm gonna have to keep an eye out for these guys.
I'm interested in S because I think a good safety play is ultra important in modern NFL defenses.
And getting that position stabilized will go a long way to building a better defensive unit.
But, man its hard to judge S from TV feed.
DJ Swearinger love the name.

[stevemcqueen1]

I think you're right DG that Kyle is pass first, and that trend might become more pronounced as RGIII grows as a passer and weapon.

But I also think Kyle and Mike have been fairly adaptive in adjusting to some of their personnel. I look at all of the pistol that was added to the offense for RGIII and it suggests to me they can be flexible and innovative. If they went out and got a big, creative workhorse like LeVeon Bell or a scoring machine like Montee Ball, I think they would use them. They've shown some willingness to give Morris a bunch of carries, so I think there could be room for that prototype workhorse in the offense.

Morris has been consistently impressive so far and I'm in no rush to go out and replace him or upgrade him. But if Bell or Ball were just sitting there in the second at our pick, they'd be really hard for me to pass up. I wouldn't chase the position in the draft or FA though.

I also agree with you DG that the short term net gain of upgrading our backs is unlikely to have as big a gain as upgrading the OL or secondary. But long term, pairing a great RB with a great QB can be a nice offensive staple you can use as your foundation for several years, sort of like what we see from Baltimore, Houston, and Philly.

[darrelgreenie]

I think you're right DG that Kyle is pass first, and that trend might become more pronounced as RGIII grows as a passer and weapon.

But I also think Kyle and Mike have been fairly adaptive in adjusting to some of their personnel. I look at all of the pistol that was added to the offense for RGIII and it suggests to me they can be flexible and innovative. If they went out and got a big, creative workhorse like LeVeon Bell or a scoring machine like Montee Ball, I think they would use them. They've shown some willingness to give Morris a bunch of carries, so I think there could be room for that prototype workhorse in the offense.

Kyle pass focus is a decided departure from the typical pass/run balance of this scheme (Denver/Texans Mike Shanahan WCO). KS=60/40 vs Everyone else=50/50
Kyle is running a cutting edge offense and I give him kudos for that but even in a game where the Morris was gashing the Rams he only had 16 carries.
When we were saddled with imo far worse QB (Wrecks/Becks) play then RB play yet still finished with a lopsided pass/run ratio.
Although I would pleasanlty surprised to see a shift towards a run focus I don't think that will happen with Kyle anymore then it would with any other pass focused playcaller.

I think we've only scratched the surface of the potential of our trio of backs.
And I think when healhty each back is capable of 100+ yards a game given 20+ carries.
But I think the opportunities for 20+ carries isn't going to happen very often. (I hope I'm dead wrong btw)

But long term, pairing a great RB with a great QB can be a nice offensive staple you can use as your foundation for several years, sort of like what we see from Baltimore, Houston, and Philly

Oh, I agree but I don't think that's gonna happen without a paradigm shift in playcalling and those backs could be on the team right now or found in the middle rounds.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'm actually becoming a big fan of Le'Veon Bell. I'm starting to like him a lot.

MSU uses some zone stretch - Bell scored a TD vs Boise ST, at the goalline, in such a play. He just made one cut and into the endzone. He's even taken the handoff "mesh point," from the shotgun alignment.

I caught up on some LeVeon Bell and was blown away, frankly. I think he's competing with Lattimore for "most talented back in the class."

He's being projected in a second round range right now but I have a hard time seeing him fall out of the first round.

The physical attributes are immediately impressive. He's got an enormous trunk and you see him push the pile and drive with ease. It takes a village to bring him down and he makes picking up the tough yards look so easy. He's got a patient, evasive running style but because of his natural size and power, he's not going to get a lot of negative runs even when he strings them out. I see some physical similarity with Michael Turner and LeGarrette Blount, but Bell has a somewhat unique build. Similar size to Blount in terms of height and weight, but Bell carries his weight in his lower body more like Michael Turner whereas Blount is distributed more evenly.

The speed is also impressive and he runs away from defenders for chunk gains with surprising ease.

But the thing that impressed me the most about Bell is his natural creativity. He's got the elusiveness of a scat back and just creates for himself so naturally, particularly when he's still in the backfield.

I kind of liken it to the stature and composure and vision that RG3 demonstrates--these guys are such superior physical mismatches they play with complete fearlessness and poise.

Another thing I liked seeing was he looked pretty good against blitz pickup in the Boise St. game. If he shows some ability to catch the ball, He'd be a complete back that can play just about every down.

44 carries for 200+ yards against Boise St. is ridiculous. The true workhorse is a dying breed but Bell fits the mold. Draft him and he'll carry your offense and get you yards when you desperately need them. I'm really excited about this back, so far he's my favorite after Lattimore, and I'm putting him high on my wishlist.

Also, I think Bell would be a really nice fit in our running scheme because of he can create off of outside zone runs or chug the ball inside with equal ability.

---------- Post added September-18th-2012 at 09:29 AM ----------

One guy that is just about the opposite of Bell, in terms of size and ground/pound is Ellington, whom I'm still fond of, but different type of role, different style RB to Bell.

Yeah, I caught up on Ellington too. I'm not as impressed by him as I was with Bell, but I still came away liking what I saw.

The first thing that jumps out at me about Ellington is his speed and acceleration. It's truly rare. His productivity as a runner is entirely based upon it and it's the thing that makes him special IMO. His balance looked pretty good, flashed on some of those runs where he breaks an open field tackle at the second level and beyond. In general though, I wasn't impressed with his ability to keep his feet after contact.

Ellington's speed gives him rare ability to take a run where he gets a big opening all of the way to the end zone. The speed puts pressure on the secondary and the acceleration gives him second life on plays to pick up extra yards.

I'd say my biggest problem is that he goes down too easily on contact and doesn't do a lot of creating for himself except in open space. In the open field, he's terrific, runs with great lean and CoD and acceleration, but touch him before he's gotten into that space and he'll go down. Even on desperation shoe string tackles guys like Ball, Bell, and Lattimore would laugh at. So you end up with a ton of 0, 1, and 2 yard carries out of Ellington mixed with some gigantic runs that fill out his yardage and YPC numbers. That's not particularly appealing to me. But the magnitude of the big plays when they come is appealing.

I think you're dead on Ellington doesn't have a future as a lead back and is a pure change of pace runner. I think he'll need to get stronger to be productive in the NFL. I'd put him behind Bell, Ball, and Lattimore for starters. Probably a few other guys I'll end up ranking over him after I review them more.

[darrelgreenie]

Spent a lil bit of time watching the available cut-ups of the following S:
Hall, McDonald, Rambo, Reid, Stafford, Swearinger, Vaccaro, Williams

Where are TJ McDonald, Eric Reid and Duke Williams projected to go?