2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database

[NLC1054]

But, if you are asking.... the way I look at football a disruptive 34 DL is more beneficial to the overall defense then a second pass rushing OLB.

Againn, hindsight is tricky. Taking Ryan in the first and then getting our DE in the second (even though Jarvis wasn't known as a disruptive guy, he was really coming on in preseason in 2011, and he's been flashing the more he plays) was a pretty solid move a couple years ago.

[Monk4thaHALL]

Watching Sheldon Richardson vs Vandy, dude is just so good. Now he does have explosion. He creates for himself and others. His sack, he beats the TE from a jumbo set, the double team / chip block from the RB is brushed aside and he swallows up the QB on the bootleg. His closing speed to the QB was just awesome. He already has repertoire rushing the passer. And he's 300 lbs.

[NLC1054]

And if the goal was to have a Steelers-esque defense, having two pass rushers like the Steelers have Harrison and Woodley would be a priority. For their part the Steelers don't have disruptive, pass rushing DE's either, but their d-line is better at two-gapping and absorbing blocks than we are.

The Packers sort of moved that direction this offseason when they drafted Nick Perry. The Packers actually did it both ways; they had Cullen Jenkins as their disruptive DE, then he left and Clay Matthews fell off, and now they're a little more like the Steelers with their D-line two-gapping instead of penetrating and trying to get rush off the edges.

[darrelgreenie]

Againn, hindsight is tricky. Taking Ryan in the first and then getting our DE in the second (even though Jarvis wasn't known as a disruptive guy, he was really coming on in preseason in 2011, and he's been flashing the more he plays) was a pretty solid move a couple years ago.

Its not hindsight at all.
That's my view of football philosphically and I expressed the view that a disruptive DE is more beneficial then a 2nd pass rushing OLB prior to the draft.

No one is saying that drafting Kerrigan wasn't a solid move.

---------- Post added October-8th-2012 at 08:18 PM ----------

And if the goal was to have a Steelers-esque defense, having two pass rushers like the Steelers have Harrison and Woodley would be a priority. For their part the Steelers don't have disruptive, pass rushing DE's either,

Well there was Aaron Smith, and look at the investment/priority draft they've made in players with DE that have a pass rush penetrating skillset like Ziggy Hood and Casey Heyward.
I'm sure every 34 wants 2 good OLBs but finding a 2nd OLB would take a back seat to finding a disruptive DE.

[DogofWar1]

So looking at contract details, it looks like Brown is, at a minimum, going to receive 1.1M next year, which stinks because the guy needs to go asap, but he was given some 8.5M guaranteed in 2011, and we haven't cut through all of that.

Hall is due 7.5M next year before any sort of bonuses, we really need to chop that contract down to size. The way I see it, Hall is now our 2nd best CB behind Wilson, and will either be A) moved to FS next year, B) become the 3rd CB if we bring in Talib or DRC, or C) will stay #2.

In scenario A) he shouldn't get 7.5M because only the very best FSs in the league get that kind of money, and he isn't it. He's done on guaranteed, let's try and re-do his contract and get him to around 4M a year. In B) there's no way a 3rd CB deserves anything remotely close to 7.5M. In C) I'd say the same thing as B, but maybe not to the same extent. Maybe re-work it to 5M instead or 4M or lower. I'm not certain exactly how much we'd save, from what I understand he was getting some pretty hefty (3.5M a year) miscellaneous bonuses, so that might factor in too, but I'll just leave those alone for now and discuss base salary.

Finally, Moss, bless his soul, can't get 4.15M next year. His cap hit needs to be brought down to around 1.5M at most. We have 5 legitimate WRs now, with Garcon, Morgan, Hankerson, Robinson, and Briscoe, so he's no longer an absolute necessity.

Anyways, Brown at 1.1M would save us 2.4M, Hall hopefully takes a lesser contract and saves us another 3.5M or so, and Moss hopefully takes a pay cut and saves us 2.5Mish. Combine that and we'd be looking at saving 8.4M, which is enough to get a top corner or safety in FA. Ideally, we pull that, while getting to keep Hall and Moss, and hopefully filling FS with Hall while we're at it.

If we somehow were able to slide Hall over, and give him a paycut, and Talib proved to be a decent CB option, I could see us paying him around 5M a year (suspension discount), and then, depending on Crawford's development, adding another guy either for the nickel or purely for depth. Then, hopefully Gomes develops into a decent SS or Meriweather gets healthy, and we can spend the rest of our money re-signing people and on our draft picks.

EDIT: Also, maybe we can re-do Wilson's contract and give him a longer one, reducing his base salary for next year (he's owed 3.9M) but giving him more in subsequent years. I wouldn't mind a 4 year 20M contract for Wilson at this point, he's our best corner IMO, and locking him down until he's 32ish would be nice.

Looking at all our contracts there is one silver lining to Vinny drafting crappy all those years, we only have one big name from 2008 for 2013, Davis, and one big name from 2009 for 2014, Orakpo (though we also have Riley and Robinson from 2010 and 2011). 2015 could be nasty, Kerrigan, Jenkins, and Hankerson all come due, and 2016 has Trent, Bowen, and Carriker.

[stevemcqueen1]

Againn, hindsight is tricky. Taking Ryan in the first and then getting our DE in the second (even though Jarvis wasn't known as a disruptive guy, he was really coming on in preseason in 2011, and he's been flashing the more he plays) was a pretty solid move a couple years ago.

Not everyone thought so. I know, because I hated the trade downs and hated most of the players we took in that class at the time.

That draft was pretty amateur.

You didn't need hindsight to project Watt would be better, nor that he played the more valuable position.

But, had I been in charge, the class wouldn't have been better. I'd have gone QB like Blaine Gabbert, meaning we wouldn't have RGIII today and have a significantly lesser prospect to develop. Or if not QB, I'd have gone Nick Fairley, who, while talented, has been constantly injured.

At least Ryan Kerrigan has been terrific. He was the right choice over the next best alternatives at that spot: Wilkerson, Amukamara, Jordan, Heyward, Liugit, and Clayborn. At the time, I thought he was worse than all of them.

Jarvis Jenkins wasn't the right choice. Nor was it the right choice to continuously trade down in the second and pass on Stephen Paea three times.

Hankerson, Robinson, Helu, Gomes, and Hurt have not been worth all of the trade downs frankly. I never really believed they would be, and as we get farther from their draft day and cycle in new talent, most of those guys will be cut.

[GWinSkins83]

Not everyone thought so. I know, because I hated the trade downs and hated most of the players we took in that class at the time.

That draft was pretty amateur.

You didn't need hindsight to project Watt would be better, nor that he played the more valuable position.

But, had I been in charge, the class wouldn't have been better. I'd have gone QB like Blaine Gabbert, meaning we wouldn't have RGIII today and have a significantly lesser prospect to develop. Or if not QB, I'd have gone Nick Fairley, who, while talented, has been constantly injured.

At least Ryan Kerrigan has been terrific. He was the right choice over the next best alternatives at that spot: Wilkerson, Amukamara, Jordan, Heyward, Liugit, and Clayborn. At the time, I thought he was worse than all of them.

Jarvis Jenkins wasn't the right choice. Nor was it the right choice to continuously trade down in the second and pass on Stephen Paea three times.

Hankerson, Robinson, Helu, Gomes, and Hurt have not been worth all of the trade downs frankly. I never really believed they would be, and as we get farther from their draft day and cycle in new talent, most of those guys will be cut.

Man you basically saying the players we got are not going to make it after only 1 and a half years. And what would we have now if we didnt pull those trades out? Probably a bunch of vet min players. Just imagine that for a minute.

[stevemcqueen1]

Man you basically saying the players we got are not going to make it after only 1 and a half years. And what would we have now if we didnt pull those trades out? Probably a bunch of vet min players. Just imagine that for a minute.

I don't think most will. Odds are against them. The average NFL career is like 2 and a half years for a reason. Generally, late rounders don't make it long.

But speaking specifically about the guys we picked up, I don't think Helu will be on the team next season. If Hank gets hurt again, or doesn't improve, he could get replaced with a Josh Morgan type FA acquisition (or draft pick) and his shot is gone. Gomes hasn't looked good so far and unless he finds a new role at something like SS, will remain one of our last DBs on the depth chart. That makes him very vulnerable to any sort of draft pick or vet FA acquisition that comes along.

I'd like to see Robinson make it since I've always liked him. But I liked Brandyn Thompson too. Let's be real, seventh rounders who aren't getting much PT have a low chance of making it. And I think the FO is showing that Hurt is our last OL on the depth chart too, even playing Jordan Black over him. They drafted Gettis and LeRibeus, who take away his chance at clinging as the backup at two positions. Hurt has proven hard to cut throughout his football career, but if we draft an OT or another interior lineman, he'll likely be the first to go. And I think we're going to draft at least one guy at those positions this year.

Also, I don't see how a bunch of vet min guys would be any worse than those five. It's not like any have set the world on fire, and Helu and Hankerson missed a ton of time with injury. We'd have been better off keeping that second rounder and taking Stephen Paea, or Rodney Hudson, or Brandon Harris at that choice instead of moving down for Hankerson and change.

[DogofWar1]

Hankerson, Robinson, Helu, Gomes, and Hurt have not been worth all of the trade downs frankly. I never really believed they would be, and as we get farther from their draft day and cycle in new talent, most of those guys will be cut.

I think the jury is still out on that. Remember, it's only their 2nd year. Usually it take 2-3 full seasons for players drafted in the middle and later rounds to develop into core players. We can do a true judgement of the class at the end of next year, but honestly, so far it's gone pretty well. The biggest disappointment has probably been Helu because of his injuries, but if he can get healthy, he should be a good speedy compliment to Morris' running style.

But, had I been in charge, the class wouldn't have been better. I'd have gone QB like Blaine Gabbert, meaning we wouldn't have RGIII today and have a significantly lesser prospect to develop. Or if not QB, I'd have gone Nick Fairley, who, while talented, has been constantly injured.

I think this is the biggest point. There's really only one way the class could have been better, and that would have been draft JJ Watt. And to be honest, while people knew Watt would be good, if you'd told me Watt, through 5 games in his 2nd year would have 8.5 sacks, 26 tackles, and 8 passes defended, I'd probably have called you a liar and then picked him #1 overall. No other option would have yielded the same results as what we got, Gabbert, Fairly, Quinn, etc. at 10 wouldn't have done it, and everyone else at 16 wouldn't have.

[stevemcqueen1]

I think the jury is still out on that. Remember, it's only their 2nd year. Usually it take 2-3 full seasons for players drafted in the middle and later rounds to develop into core players. We can do a true judgement of the class at the end of next year, but honestly, so far it's gone pretty well. The biggest disappointment has probably been Helu because of his injuries, but if he can get healthy, he should be a good speedy compliment to Morris' running style.

I'm disappointed with Hankerson too. I thought he was really going to work out but the severe injury hampered him, and the addition of all of the veteran receivers has blocked him.

I didn't have high expectations for Gomes going in, but did get them up after I thought he had a good rookie season. But he hasn't looked that great in limited action this year. I was hoping for a Dashon Goldson type steal out of him but I don't think he has the coverage ability to be that guy any more.

The jury is certainly still out on them, but one elite player would easily be worth all of them and more (contribution so far + potential) in my mind.

I think this is the biggest point. There's really only one way the class could have been better, and that would have been draft JJ Watt. And to be honest, while people knew Watt would be good, if you'd told me Watt, through 5 games in his 2nd year would have 8.5 sacks, 26 tackles, and 8 passes defended, I'd probably have called you a liar and then picked him #1 overall. No other option would have yielded the same results as what we got, Gabbert, Fairly, Quinn, etc. at 10 wouldn't have done it, and everyone else at 16 wouldn't have.

I think Quinn will ultimately prove a better player than Kerrigan and could have also been a better pick at 10 than Kerrigan at 16. He's a DWare clone, only more powerful. We were definitely targeting OLB early, I think LL was saying the FO was set on Quinn up until we traded down, missed him, and then picked Kerrigan. I think Quinn was very much in play for us, and we might have even taken him at 16 if he'd still been there. If that's the case, trading down was a gamble that didn't go our way.

Still, I think we came out well on that pick. I think Kerrigan has been one of the ten best non-OL players from that class thus far. Watt, Newton, Dalton, Miller, Aldon Smith, Green, Jones, Peterson, Quinn, Ponder, Kerrigan. Maybe Dareus or Rudolph is in that discussion as well. I had to exclude OL because of a lack of easy metrics for grading them, although I do know Solder has been good so far. So if you look at it like that, Kerrigan has arguably been top ten value so far, and would have been value if we had taken him at 10 without trading down.

If I were using hindsight available today to make that pick, yeah I'd have just taken Watt. If not that, I'd have either taken Quinn, or made the trade down for Kerrigan, and used that second rounder for Stephen Paea (this shouldn't have needed hindsight to make that call, Paea was a stud and first round talent).

[DogofWar1]

The injuries to Jenkins, Hankerson, and Helu have been unfortunate, but they're still contributing. Hankerson might be a little buried atm, but he's definitely playing well, and is still growing. While he could end up gone, I somewhat doubt it, there's too much upside, considering his salary is basically nil. Jenkins might not be Paea, but he's still playing well, and hopefully he stays healthy and continues to improve. Helu, I think, has a better chance of sticking around than Royster, Helu is fast enough to be the speed back to Morris' workhorse.

I think in general, you want to find a pro-bowler and at least two other starters every draft where you have picks in all 7 round, and a couple more depth guys. 2011 so far looks pretty good in that regard. Kerrigan is playing great, Jenkins is a starter (due to injury, yes, but he was in the rotation from the start), Hankerson is getting snaps consistently and should get more as he develops. Gomes, Robinson, and Hurt so far are just depth, but that's alright, they're cheap, and Helu we'll have to see but I think he still has a role to play. Hurt I think will be an interesting guy to watch, he could end up a starter as early as next year, and if he plays well suddenly the 2011 class looks much better.

[Monk4thaHALL]

---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 11:45 AM ----------

[Monk4thaHALL]

[Dukes and Skins]

Man, some people in here wont admit when they are wrong.....

EDIT: I'd personally rather be wrong 100 times and learn from it, then claim to be right every single time.

[NLC1054]

If I were using hindsight available today to make that pick, yeah I'd have just taken Watt. If not that, I'd have either taken Quinn, or made the trade down for Kerrigan, and used that second rounder for Stephen Paea (this shouldn't have needed hindsight to make that call, Paea was a stud and first round talent).

It took Paea a year to get on the field as a starter, though. And as of right now, Paea only has two and a half sacks in his career and only a half sack this season. Paea's greatest asset was his power, but he was still relatively raw as a pass rusher. He's a solid player, but let's not over inflate him and call him a stood because of his physical assets; his play on the field thus far (and the season is early) hasn't dictated that he is a stud.

Paea is a one-gap run stuffer who would've been swallowed alive playing nose tackle or defense end in a 3-4 defense. Jarvis has similiar-ish production and was a better fit for what we wanted. Apparently. I don't think the leap from Paea to Jenkins is all that huge, and given Paea's relativively minimal impact on the Bears continued insistence that he's a stud is kind of silly.

J.J Watt is a stud. He produces. Stephen Paea has an interesting physical skillset, just like Quinn has an interesting physical skillset. That does not automaticaly make either one studs.