2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database

[NLC1054]

Doesn't most of this stuff boil down to "who's the better athlete versus who's the better football player"? Because I kind of feel like that's what a lot of these sort of things boil down to in scouting.

[stevemcqueen1]

Okay, let's hash it out. Paea versus Jenkins as prospects. I admit to not having watched much on Jenkins, but I was disappointed too when we passed on Paea because he is indeed very powerful. I saw Jenkins as a NT prospect, not a DE tbqh, but there's a lot to like about Jenkins's pre-draft writeups - he was described as both powerful and athletic, with a variety of moves. Jenkins didn't have huge sack numbers, no, but he had a good number of TFL and QB pressures, which is what we would look for for our scheme. I'm just wondering whether it's possible to get some insight as to why the FO thought Jenkins was better than Paea, who was considered a top 15 pick at some points pre-draft. Maybe it was Paea's short stature and injury history (would be ironic seeing how Jenkins got hurt, though Paea missed a lot of time last year too). Paea looks really good and dominant now, but I still think there was something to those camp reports that Jenkins was dominating everyone and our super-duper stud LT was barely holding his own.

It actually doesn't need to be Jenkins versus Paea though. We could have had both of them. In fact, that's what I think we should have done really.

I think you've exactly identified the reasons we didn't go after Paea. He's short and had an injury history. Because of his height, Paea can't play regularly as a base package 5 technique. Jenkins is a long player who can play that position, but is also big enough to kick inside to NT, so he gives us package versatility. He's a scheme diverse player no doubt.

I actually disagree with the notion that our scheme doesn't have room for disruptive DLs. Carriker got a lot of sacks last year and remember, his background was as a college 4-3 DE with the athleticism to be a top 15 pick. Also, Cofield as a NT can only be interpreted as a decision to try and add a disruptive presence to the interior of the DL IMO. They're not elite disruptors. But they've got it in them. I think you can scheme up some packages using both Jenkins and Paea, and I think they would give each other looks.

Also, Hankerson is on pace for 600 yards and 6 TDs at the moment. I expect that to be something like 400 and 3 in reality, which is good considering he's buried at the bottom of a crowded receiving group and coming off a fairly serious hip injury. Helu might be a wash, but he looked dynamic and dangerous last year when healthy.

I think we drafted a Pro Bowler and 3 starting quality players, but injury hit all of them.

Hankerson has got to work out. We need a young big bodied receiver who can get off the line of scrimmage.

I hope between him, Kerrigan, and Jenkins, we've got three long term contributors.

I think Niles Paul's position change has majorly improved his chances of sticking around, but the competition at TE this camp was still fierce. His high special teams utility is probably the reason he's still here. I hope he makes it long term.

I think the writing is on the Wall for Helu and Royster personally. Shanahan is not going to stick with a back that isn't healthy for very long.

Neild is probably gone too unfortunately. The camp battle at DT was tough for him.

I'd be willing to wait around on Gomes because of how valuable nickel defenders are becoming. But he needs to improve his level of play on the field this season or he's not going to make it.

Robinson's best chance of making it long term is to replace Banks as a kick returner I think. I hope he does, because we also need a receiver like him who takes the top off a defense with speed.

I think Hurt is the kind of player who makes himself very hard to cut, kind of like Kedric Golston. But if we draft another good guard or tackle, I think he gets cut before Compton, Gettis, or LeRibeus does.

So you've got a lot of those guys on the bubble already. The further we get from their draft, the less shrift these guys will have.

---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 03:33 PM ----------

Doesn't most of this stuff boil down to "who's the better athlete versus who's the better football player"? Because I kind of feel like that's what a lot of these sort of things boil down to in scouting.

I think the best players are going to be great athletes and have great football IQ/skills.

[Monk4thaHALL]

WVU vs Texas full game:

1st quarter:



2nd quarter:



3rd quarter:



4th quarter:

[martytheman]

I'm disappointed with Hankerson too. I thought he was really going to work out but the severe injury hampered him, and the addition of all of the veteran receivers has blocked him.

I didn't have high expectations for Gomes going in, but did get them up after I thought he had a good rookie season. But he hasn't looked that great in limited action this year. I was hoping for a Dashon Goldson type steal out of him but I don't think he has the coverage ability to be that guy any more.

The jury is certainly still out on them, but one elite player would easily be worth all of them and more (contribution so far + potential) in my mind.



I think Quinn will ultimately prove a better player than Kerrigan and could have also been a better pick at 10 than Kerrigan at 16. He's a DWare clone, only more powerful. We were definitely targeting OLB early, I think LL was saying the FO was set on Quinn up until we traded down, missed him, and then picked Kerrigan. I think Quinn was very much in play for us, and we might have even taken him at 16 if he'd still been there. If that's the case, trading down was a gamble that didn't go our way.

Still, I think we came out well on that pick. I think Kerrigan has been one of the ten best non-OL players from that class thus far. Watt, Newton, Dalton, Miller, Aldon Smith, Green, Jones, Peterson, Quinn, Ponder, Kerrigan. Maybe Dareus or Rudolph is in that discussion as well. I had to exclude OL because of a lack of easy metrics for grading them, although I do know Solder has been good so far. So if you look at it like that, Kerrigan has arguably been top ten value so far, and would have been value if we had taken him at 10 without trading down.

If I were using hindsight available today to make that pick, yeah I'd have just taken Watt. If not that, I'd have either taken Quinn, or made the trade down for Kerrigan, and used that second rounder for Stephen Paea (this shouldn't have needed hindsight to make that call, Paea was a stud and first round talent).

You know what all that proves?
That the vagiants, as much as I hate to say it, were ahead of the curve in taking big, strong talented d linemen/pass rushers early and often.
Even the best cover corners can be toasted with enough time, or there is always the dink and dunk attack which is hard to defend, and that's why practically any team can march down the field in the 2 min drill.
A big, disruptive D linemen or two HAS to be a top priority this offseason..That's really the only way to stop today's insane passing NFL, shut it down with a good pass rush.

IMO, it's ridiculous that a guy can drop back and pass the ball 40-50 times a game and win, while only rushing 12-15 times.. but that's the norm now. The running game is not nearly worth what it once was in today's NFL.
The NFL today is all about passing and scoring (by design)
There needs to be a big time investment in getting after the qb, it will make everyone else better.

[darrelgreenie]

Paea is a one-gap run stuffer who would've been swallowed alive playing nose tackle or defense end in a 3-4 defense. Jarvis has similiar-ish production and was a better fit for what we wanted. Apparently.

Then if that's how you perceive him then why would you project him as NT instead of DE?

I saw Paea as a scheme diverse DL that plays stout at the POA and can add some up field rush.

I viewed Jarvis as DE/NT tweener that despite his lack of pass rush is useful because he's tough to move off his spot and spoke like he had the mentality to embrace playing NT (which imo is just as if not more important then size).

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

I think the writing is on the Wall for Helu and Royster personally. Shanahan is not going to stick with a back that isn't healthy for very long.

Eh, obviously it's Terrell Davis, but Terrell Davis stuck around forever trying to come back from the knee. Olandis Gary stuck around for a while too. Mike Anderson got banged up a bit, he stuck around. Shanny knew about Helu's history of nagging injuries coming in, I doubt he's gonna cut him loose at least next season.

Also, while it would be nice to have that disruptive individual lineman, look at last year. We had 12 sacks from our ends in a two-gap defense. 17 sacks from our rush backers. We batted down balls at the LOS all the time. There was a reason we thought our defense would make a jump in year 3. The loss of Spanos, and Orakpo has really hurt us, because we can no longer scheme up pressure, and we don't have Orakpo to make up for that.

[darrelgreenie]

I think the thing we're discussing in Watt versus Kerrigan/Quinn is "is a superstar worth 1 Pro Bowl caliber player, and 2-3 solid starters, which Hankerson and Jenkins still have a chance of becoming?).........................It's easy to say "yes" now because Watt is looking like the next Reggie White........................I don't think you can hold that against the front office.

I don't hold it against the FO, again I don't think anyone does, that frame of mind was not the genesis of this discussion.

And,, I'm not looking at it from a hindsight view. For me the question then was whether or not a disruptive DL is more valueable to a 34 then a 2nd pass rushing OLB.

And for me in thatscenario given 2 prospects with similar grades my answer will always be the same: disurptive DL over a 2nd pass rushing OLB.

[stevemcqueen1]

I was thinking about how 3 wide has pretty much become base personnel and a lot of teams use their TEs almost exclusively as receivers. Nickel and Dime defenses are important and we've seen the evolution of some interesting defenses, like the 1-5-5 and the 2-4-5.

This necessitates an evolution in the type of DLs you use IMO. A two man line means you're not really using a true 0 tech or a 5 tech.

You're basically using 4-3 DTs on the line and the ends you might use really need to be able to spot drop into zone coverages.

In an ideal world, the interior linemen are able to play each technique from 0 to 5 in order to play in each package.

That's one reason Cofield is such a useful player. He can play each technique.

When I start watching the college interior DLs, the first thing I'm sort of looking for now is a certain prototype--an ability to stay on the field for each package and either stand up and play from a 2 point stance, or play each technique. Big bodied 4-3 style DT that can register pressure or a lighter (sub 300 pound), more athletic lineman who is good on his feet. Like a Brett Keisel for instance (about 6'5, 285).

I think Jarvis Jenkins will be useful going forward because of how well he could hold up on a two man, or even one man line of scrimmage. What I would like to see is a complimentary player like Keisel, who does stay on the field for the evolved pressure packages, often in a 2 pt stance. I'd also love to see us find a really top notch pass rushing 300+ pounder to play beside Jenkins in those 2-4-5s and 2-3-6s.

[Monk4thaHALL]

Vs. LSU:


__

An interesting RB to look at would be Mike Gillislee of Florida, who has racked up solid yards in his first year as the real primary runner.

Though Florida has switched from a primary zone blocking scheme to a Man scheme, he displays a one cut approach on the few stretch plays, likes to turn up-field (north-south) and doesn't shy from contact even though he's pretty diminutive at 5'10", 200 lbs.

Even when having the hole defined in the Man scheme, he hits the hole looking for a jump-cut or to bounce it.

His size and durability will probably be the leading question marks and as to whether he could be a primary RB in the NFL. As it were, he would probably start off as an situational RB. But the more he carries like he did against the likes of LSU, he'll only bury that concern further down.

Notice the blocks he lays down here against LSU, as well, tough son-of-a-gun.

He's fairly quick with burst through the hole. He has a natural lateral movement, his stride can push laterally while still pushing vertically, he's able to run away from defenders. Every so often showcases a decent jump-cut. I don't know if anything superlative stands out, but he's solid.

But I'd say his most compelling feature, most admirable trait, is that he seems to have good vision. He seems patient to the hole when need be, reads his blocks and can sense flow of the defense and that alone bodes well for him with zone.

Currently listed by CBS as a 5th round prospect:
2013 RBs - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

- Yet, I suspect a strong Senior campaign and pre-draft workouts can elevate his stock. As it were, for a 5th, he's pretty intriguing.

2012 Game Log	        Rushing	                                                Receiving

DATE	OPP	        RESULT  	ATT 	YDS 	AVG 	LNG 	TD 	REC 	YDS 	AVG 	LNG 	TD
9/1	Bowling Green	W 27-14 	24 	148 	6.2 	38 	2 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	0
9/8	@Texas A&M	W 20-17 	14 	83 	5.9 	24 	2 	1 	3 	3.0 	3 	0
9/15	@Tennessee	W 37-20 	18 	115 	6.4 	45 	0 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	0
9/22	Kentucky	W 38-0 	        13 	56 	4.3 	11 	1 	1 	11 	11.0 	11 	0
10/6	LSU	        W 14-6 	        34 	146 	4.3 	12 	2 	0 	0 	0.0 	0 	0

RUSHING Stats
YR  TEAM 	ATT 	YDS 	AVG 	LNG 	TD

2012	

    FLA

	        103 	548 	5.3 	45 	7

...
2011	

    FLA

	        56 	328 	5.9 	60 	2

...
2010	

    FLA

	        58 	325 	5.6 	43 	7

...
2009	

    FLA

	        31 	267 	8.6 	52 	1

__



v. Texas A&M:


v. BG:

__

Florida Player Profile:
Gator Football Roster/Bios - GatorZone.com

[stevemcqueen1]

Eh, obviously it's Terrell Davis, but Terrell Davis stuck around forever trying to come back from the knee. Olandis Gary stuck around for a while too. Mike Anderson got banged up a bit, he stuck around. Shanny knew about Helu's history of nagging injuries coming in, I doubt he's gonna cut him loose at least next season.

Shanahan really cycles running backs doesn't he? It's a pretty dizzying list of names he's started over the years. Everyone gets a chance to win the job in camp every year it seems like. Most coaches will find a mix they like and stick with it for years for better or worse. It felt like Portis, Betts, Cartwright were our backs for a hundred years. This year we truly had no clue who was going to start until the final game of the preseason.

Given that, I don't see Mike having a lot of patience with Royster and Helu. He cut Tim Hightower when he wasn't healthy, and he was probably our best all around back.

Also, while it would be nice to have that disruptive individual lineman, look at last year. We had 12 sacks from our ends in a two-gap defense. 17 sacks from our rush backers. We batted down balls at the LOS all the time. There was a reason we thought our defense would make a jump in year 3. The loss of Spanos, and Orakpo has really hurt us, because we can no longer scheme up pressure, and we don't have Orakpo to make up for that.

I think you're absolutely right about the loss of pressure. Right now, it's looking like the loss of Spanos was far reaching in impact. It's clear we had become too reliant on Orakpo for our own good. We can get around the advantage we give up in the Xs and Os by finding a superior talent that is just hard to match up with. That guy will produce no matter the scheme.

Or best of all, we get a talent like that and replace Haslett with a better coordinator in the offseason.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

Shanahan really cycles running backs doesn't he? It's a pretty dizzying list of names he's started over the years. Everyone gets a chance to win the job in camp every year it seems like. Most coaches will find a mix they like and stick with it for years for better or worse. It felt like Portis, Betts, Cartwright were our backs for a hundred years. This year we truly had no clue who was going to start until the final game of the preseason.

Given that, I don't see Mike having a lot of patience with Royster and Helu. He cut Tim Hightower when he wasn't healthy, and he was probably our best all around back.

Eh, Hightower had a lot of good things going for him, but despite his versatility, he had rather poor vision - which is the one thing a Shanahan back CANNOT have. Morris has elite vision (though he missed a cutback lane last game that would have gotten 15-20 more yards at least, but it was one that was probably only apparent on TV), and is durable, so I think he'll stay around for a while.

I think one or both will be on the roster going into next year's training camp.

I think you're absolutely right about the loss of pressure. Right now, it's looking like the loss of Spanos was far reaching in impact. It's clear we had become too reliant on Orakpo for our own good. We can get around the advantage we give up in the Xs and Os by finding a superior talent that is just hard to match up with. That guy will produce no matter the scheme.

Yeah, we drafted Kerrigan with Orakpo (who IS that guy despite him not producing DeMarcus Ware-like sack numbers) in mind I think. Rather than getting simply another physically dominant player, they got Kerrigan who's not physically dominant like Quinn, but who has a nose for getting fumbles, interceptions, batdowns and big plays.

Speaking of Ware, Ware's sack numbers didn't truly take off until they replaced Mike Zimmer and Parcells with Wade Phillips (or rather, Parcells's rather antiquated 3-4 with Wade Phillips's attacking 3-4, with a natural 4-3 coach coaching a vanilla 3-4...sound familiar?). Could the same thing happen with Rak and Kerrigan? It seems natural to chalk up Ware's jump from 8 to 11.5 to 14.0 to progression, but I think Ware also had help from having Jay Ratliff and Greg Ellis to draw OL attention too.

Kerrigan already has 2 defensive TDs in 21 games (and has had shots at several more). To put in perspective, Rod Woodson has 11 defensive TDs in 238 games.

[darrelgreenie]

....Because of his height, Paea can't play regularly as a base package 5 technique. Jenkins is a long player who can play that position, but is also big enough to kick inside to NT, so he gives us package versatility. He's a scheme diverse player no doubt.

I don't think Paea height is that big a factor nor do i think it would preclude him from playing DE in okie, he's only an inch shorter then Cullen Jenkins for example.
My speculation was Paea injury and Jarvis potential to play both DE and NT could have been the deciding factors

Hankerson has got to work out. We need a young big bodied receiver who can get off the line of scrimmage.

I'm hoping Hank turns out to be a late bloomer, I always viewed him as a draft day steal.
He's got the size and skillset he just needs to bring consistency.

I think the writing is on the Wall for Helu and Royster personally. Shanahan is not going to stick with a back that isn't healthy for very long.

Royster still looks hurt.
I love Helu, still think he's our best back when healthy, but that dude has been snake bit.
I don't know Shanny track record with backs suffering season ending injuries, but I would expect that Helu has to earn/play his way back on the roster next training camp.

I'd be willing to wait around on Gomes because of how valuable nickel defenders are becoming. But he needs to improve his level of play on the field this season or he's not going to make it.

I think Gomes needs to up his game knowledge (especially in zone coverage) and improve his consistency with his tackling.
I think Gomes does everything else better then Doughty and has a better skillset.
I think Gomes is very underrating in man-to-man coverage against elite TEs.
But, Doughty's sure tackling and game and scheme knowledge are keeping Gomes on the bench.

I think Hurt is the kind of player who makes himself very hard to cut, kind of like Kedric Golston. But if we draft another good guard or tackle, I think he gets cut before Compton, Gettis, or LeRibeus does.

At this point I don't trust this FO decisions along the OL.
There is no way I'm buying that Jordan Black is better then Hurt.
I find it concerning that LeRib hasn't made more of a push to see playing time much less start.
Right now I would have to think he's behind Gettis.

[GWinSkins83]

I was thinking about how 3 wide has pretty much become base personnel and a lot of teams use their TEs almost exclusively as receivers. Nickel and Dime defenses are important and we've seen the evolution of some interesting defenses, like the 1-5-5 and the 2-4-5.

This necessitates an evolution in the type of DLs you use IMO. A two man line means you're not really using a true 0 tech or a 5 tech.

You're basically using 4-3 DTs on the line and the ends you might use really need to be able to spot drop into zone coverages.

In an ideal world, the interior linemen are able to play each technique from 0 to 5 in order to play in each package.

That's one reason Cofield is such a useful player. He can play each technique.

When I start watching the college interior DLs, the first thing I'm sort of looking for now is a certain prototype--an ability to stay on the field for each package and either stand up and play from a 2 point stance, or play each technique. Big bodied 4-3 style DT that can register pressure or a lighter (sub 300 pound), more athletic lineman who is good on his feet. Like a Brett Keisel for instance (about 6'5, 285).

I think Jarvis Jenkins will be useful going forward because of how well he could hold up on a two man, or even one man line of scrimmage. What I would like to see is a complimentary player like Keisel, who does stay on the field for the evolved pressure packages, often in a 2 pt stance. I'd also love to see us find a really top notch pass rushing 300+ pounder to play beside Jenkins in those 2-4-5s and 2-3-6s.

William Gholston is somewhat like that. I just think he needs to play more violently with his hands. Sky's the limit for him if he does.

[darrelgreenie]

Soooo back to the whole draft database and college evaluation thing, any of you college junkies do some studying of free safeties this weekend?

I didn't watch this weekend but I've been watching the cut-ups of the safety class.

Right now the guys I like the best are TJ McDonald and Duke Williams.
Just so you know, I cannot stand Safeties that dive/lunge tackle like CBs, especially if their dive tackling sometimes results in missed tackles.
I thought they were the best tacklers both in form (bringing their arms) and in angles/pursuit.

Both seem to move well, very fluid change of direction. (Williams moves like a freakin missile)
Both have experience playing Cover-2 and should therefore have a greater understanding of zone concept then the other guys.

The other guys I looked at: Hall, Rambo, Reid, Stafford, Swearinger and Vaccaro imo didn't match McDonald and Williams and seem less versatile some seem like SS only types.
After TJ and Duke the next guys I liked were Hall, Swearinger and Vaccaro.
Reid and Rambo didn't catch my eye; Rambo strikes me as a very undisciplined lunge/dive tackler.

[stevemcqueen1]

William Gholston is somewhat like that. I just think he needs to play more violently with his hands. Sky's the limit for him if he does.

What round do you think he goes in?

---------- Post added October-9th-2012 at 06:10 PM ----------

You know what all that proves?
That the vagiants, as much as I hate to say it, were ahead of the curve in taking big, strong talented d linemen/pass rushers early and often.
Even the best cover corners can be toasted with enough time, or there is always the dink and dunk attack which is hard to defend, and that's why practically any team can march down the field in the 2 min drill.
A big, disruptive D linemen or two HAS to be a top priority this offseason..That's really the only way to stop today's insane passing NFL, shut it down with a good pass rush.

IMO, it's ridiculous that a guy can drop back and pass the ball 40-50 times a game and win, while only rushing 12-15 times.. but that's the norm now. The running game is not nearly worth what it once was in today's NFL.
The NFL today is all about passing and scoring (by design)
There needs to be a big time investment in getting after the qb, it will make everyone else better.

What's interesting about the Giants is that they've really ceded some ability to stop the run in favor of going small on the DL. They put the onus of run stopping on their linebackers.

Their philosophy of loading up on pass rushers heeds a general psychological truth about the position. It's important to have a pass rushing stable because it's very hard to stay fresh doing it all game. The motivation and stamina it takes to shove up on a 300+ pound behemoth is rare, and having one guy battle that tackle all game plays to the tackle's favor. Your going to get a lot of rushes where your guy just mails it in and you're going to get ruts where your player unconsciously continues using the same tactics with diminishing returns.

Better to keep your rushers fresh so they go hard every snap. Better to mix up styles that the tackle will have to face.