2013 Comprehensive NFL Draft Database

[CoolHandLuke]

WVU vs Syracuse in about an hour. Should be a great game with a lot of good tape.

I am looking forward to seeing Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin, and of course Geno Smith. Ryan Nassib should also be pretty interesting.

Yes and also Shamarko Thomas SS, Justin Pugh OT, and Alec Lemon WR from Syracuse. Hope Lemon has a good game as he's a local kid from Crofton.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'm not sure about the relative difficult of find a S vs other positions. But, recent drafts have shown its hard to find rookie season starting caliber S the later you draft them (which is true for any position really). But, I was checking awhile back and very few rookie S start that weren't drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. Compare that against OL or RB or WR where mid-late round starters are much more common place.

I think your last statement about waiting to draft S is true in a vacuum. But, as I'm sure we all agree draft decisions should be guided by BPA.

I think position value factors into the BPA formulation.

But yes, BPA should guide the decision. A tier 2 safety is worth drafting over a tier 3 corner.

On the draft value of the S position, I would say there are far less starting safeties taken in the first round than WRs and OTs. I see OG, OC, and HB as low value interior positions like S. Though I think S might have a bit less draft value than any of those positions save OC. It's one of the least drafted positions most years.

Also, it seems to me that most of the best safeties in the league are not first rounders, indicating you can much more reliably get top end talent at the position later in the draft compared to the exterior positions.

Goldson was a 4th rounder
Branch was a 4th rounder
Weddle was a 2nd rounder
Byrd was a 2nd rounder
Ward was a 2nd rounder
Chancellor was a 5th rounder
Mikell was a UDFA and journeyman FA signing
Rhodes was a 4th rounder and traded for a 4th rounder and future 7th.

Even the good first rounders were teens and twenties picks like Polomalu, Reed, Thomas, and Griffin.

I see safety having about the same value as guard.

[STBonecrusher21]

Looks lile Shemarko Thomas may be done this game.

Looks like a concussion. Stumbling off the field.

*Hes back in now.

[Dukes and Skins]

Shamarko Thomas will be one of the best value picks made in this draft IMO

[Dukes and Skins]

Jordan Poyer having a strong game today for Oregon State.

[darrelgreenie]

On the draft value of the S position, I would say there are far less starting safeties taken in the first round than WRs and OTs....I see OG, OC, and HB as low value interior positions like S. Though I think S might have a bit less draft value than any of those positions save OC.

Maybe there are fewer starting S taken in the 1st round then WRs or OTs but that was never my point.
I specifically talking about rookie season starters:

I'm not sure about the relative difficult of find a S vs other positions. But, recent drafts have shown its hard to find rookie season starting caliber S the later you draft them (which is true for any position really). But, I was checking awhile back and very few rookie S start that weren't drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. Compare that against OL or RB or WR where mid-late round starters are much more common place.

If a team has the luxury to develop/groom or wait for a player to reach starting level then of course over time mid-round developmental prospects can emerge as starters. And S especially FS is a position that usually requires a good amount of seasoning before they're ready to play.

It's one of the least drafted positions most years.

This maybe true and I would wager that S is one of the least likely positions to yeild a rookie season starter.

Also, it seems to me that most of the best safeties in the league are not first rounders, indicating you can much more reliably get top end talent at the position later in the draft compared to the exterior positions.

IEven if your first assertion is true (i don't know if it is) it doesn't make your next statement true. You're pitting one group (1st rounders) against every other choice (2-7th rounders) by sheer quantity the odds are on your side.

But here is a more complete look:
Goldson was a 4th rounder
Branch was a 4th rounder
Weddle was a 2nd rounder
Byrd was a 2nd rounder
Ward was a 2nd rounder
Chancellor was a 5th rounder
Mikell was a UDFA and journeyman FA signing
Rhodes was a 4th rounder and traded for a 4th rounder and future 7th.
Eric Berry 1st
Donte Whitner 1st(?)
Polomalu 1st
Reed 1st
Thomas 1st
Mark Barron 1st
Harrison Smith 2nd
Rahim Moore 2nd

I see safety having about the same value as guard.

Okay, I'm not sure what you mean by this *shrugs*

---------- Post added December-30th-2012 at 12:37 AM ----------

This discussion might prompt me to take a closer look at the S in the class. And the recent NFL trends at the S position.

[stevemcqueen1]

I like Conner Vernon as a mid to late round option at WR. Such a good route runner.

Alec Lemon is alright but didn't really blow me away. Probably a late round project. Syracuse had a fine team this year though. They've put out a pretty good run of mid tier prospects the past few drafts.

[NIKKI8]

I don't watch alot of college football other than Penn St. and I just saw Kenny Vaccarro for the first time WOW, he is just what we need.

[Chump Bailey]

But here is a more complete look:
Goldson was a 4th rounder
Branch was a 4th rounder
Weddle was a 2nd rounder
Byrd was a 2nd rounder
Ward was a 2nd rounder
Chancellor was a 5th rounder
Mikell was a UDFA and journeyman FA signing
Rhodes was a 4th rounder and traded for a 4th rounder and future 7th.
Eric Berry 1st
Donte Whitner 1st(?)
Polomalu 1st
Reed 1st
Thomas 1st
Mark Barron 1st
Harrison Smith 2nd
Rahim Moore 2nd

Don't forget Earl Thomas. I would love to have this guy patrolling out there for us.

[stevemcqueen1]

Maybe there are fewer starting S taken in the 1st round then WRs or OTs but that was never my point.
I specifically talking about rookie season starters:

HBs are kind of plug and play, your chances are pretty good of finding a rookie starter anywhere compared to most positions. I haven't looked at raw numbers over long periods of time. But I don't know if you can infer too much about rookie safeties starting versus rookie OLs and WRs taken after the first three rounds. There are so many fewer rookie safeties than at either of those positions. For example, in 2011 there were only 14 safeties drafted versus 28 WRs drafted and 41 OL drafted, including roughly 19 interior OLs.

By nature there will be fewer rookie safeties starting because there are so many fewer rookie safeties. But it doesn't necessarily mean you are less likely to find starting caliber safeties outside the first three rounds than you are WRs or OLs.

If a team has the luxury to develop/groom or wait for a player to reach starting level then of course over time mid-round developmental prospects can emerge as starters. And S especially FS is a position that usually requires a good amount of seasoning before they're ready to play.

They do require seasoning. More than WRs, OLs, and CBs? I'm not sure I agree.

Also, I don't think we need to base too much of our decision on trying to find a rookie starter. The draft is going to be a losing bet for that. We really need to be using FA to fill the immediate hole for next year. Even if it's with an old guy that's just to be a one or two year stop gap while we groom a younger player (like Mikell).

IEven if your first assertion is true (i don't know if it is) it doesn't make your next statement true. You're pitting one group (1st rounders) against every other choice (2-7th rounders) by sheer quantity the odds are on your side.

But here is a more complete look:
Goldson was a 4th rounder
Branch was a 4th rounder
Weddle was a 2nd rounder
Byrd was a 2nd rounder
Ward was a 2nd rounder
Chancellor was a 5th rounder
Mikell was a UDFA and journeyman FA signing
Rhodes was a 4th rounder and traded for a 4th rounder and future 7th.
Eric Berry 1st
Donte Whitner 1st(?)
Polomalu 1st
Reed 1st
Thomas 1st
Mark Barron 1st
Harrison Smith 2nd
Rahim Moore 2nd

The discussion originally started about needing an impact safety to field an elite defense and the suggestion was that you find those guys in the first round, usually the early first. My original assertion was that safety is one of the least valuable positions in the draft and that taking one in the first was usually a bad call, and that they should pretty much never be taken in the first half of the first round. It's contrary to popular wisdom. That's why I made the dichotomy of first rounders vs. 2-7 and I wanted to demonstrate that the guys taken 2-7 are actually better than the first rounders in the successful cases, indicating that the highest end talent at the S position is reliably found outside the first. That's pretty unique among all other positions.

On who you added to the list, I'm not sure Reed, Polamalu, Whitner, Berry, and Barron belong on the list with the other guys this season. Berry's sham of a Probowl selection aside, I don't think they've been among the best safeties this year. Earl Thomas belongs though. Most years Polamalu and Reed would head the list but they're old now and they were drafted a long time ago and the nature and value of their position has since changed. Plus I'm not sure they aren't just HoF outliers like you'd find at any lower value position with first rounders: Steve Hutchinson and Al Faneca at interior OL, Ray Lewis and Pat Willis at ILB, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson at RB.

Okay, I'm not sure what you mean by this *shrugs*

The safety position has about the same positional value as guard does. That's in team building resources--draft picks and FA dollars.

Let's say you've got a QB, RB, WR, OT, OG, OC, DE, DT, OLB, ILB, CB, S, K, P to choose from in the draft that are all ranked in the exact same tier. Say you don't need immediate starters at any of those positions. You would use position value as the kicker. This is the system you would use for position value:

Tier 1:
QB

Tier 2:
OT, DE (OLB too in our scheme)

Tier 3:
CB, WR

Tier 4:
Non pass rushing OLBs, DT, ILB

Tier 5:
HB, OG, S, OC

Tier 6:
K, P

Within each tier you'll get gradations and you won't necessarily put certain WRs and CBs in tier 3 (slot guys who can't play on the outside full time).

---------- Post added December-30th-2012 at 08:26 AM ----------

rd 2 - Oday Aboushi
rd 3 - Will Davis/David Amerson
rd 4 - Margus Hunt
rd 4 - Conner Vernon
rd 5 - Robert Lester
rd 6 - Travis Kelce

or I'd like this too:

rd 2 - Kenny Vaccaro
rd 3 - Montee Ball
rd 4 - Cobi Hamilton
rd 4 - Margus Hunt
rd 5 - Ricky Wagner
rd 6 - Travis Kelce
rd 7 - Quanterus Smith

[LetThePointsSoar]

Late 1st to Early 2nd for me. Should be the top TE off the board

Thanks Justin! Would be a luxury pick obviously, but damn he'd be a weapon in this offense if we landed him...

[darrelgreenie]

But I don't know if you can infer too much about rookie safeties starting versus rookie OLs and WRs taken after the first three rounds. There are so many fewer rookie safeties than at either of those positions. For example, in 2011 there were only 14 safeties drafted versus 28 WRs drafted and 41 OL drafted, including roughly 19 interior OLs.

That makes perfect sense to me because on the field 5 OL plus depth you have often 3/4 WRs plus depth you basically have 2 S and in rare cases 3 S on the field plus depth (special teammer).
Part of the reason is there is simply less on the field demand for S based on numbers and therefore team carry fewer S then they do OL/WR therefore more OL/WRs are drafted.

By nature there will be fewer rookie safeties starting because there are so many fewer rookie safeties. But it doesn't necessarily mean you are less likely to find starting caliber safeties outside the first three rounds than you are WRs or OLs.

I think it certainly means that based on sheer numbers. But, if you're talking by percentage then I don't know but I still speculate that since the past few drafts have produced 0 rookie season starting S outside of rounds 1-3 and the WR/OL has produced some rookie season starters outside of rounds 1-3 then I would wager the percentage of rookie season starters post 3rd round is still lower by percentage for S then OL/WR.

But, enough quibling. The overeaching point is that if your looking for a S to come in and start as a rookie, like we are, and your staff doesn't have a special eye for drafting the position like Bobby Turner does w/RB or the developing through scheme like the ZBS for mid/late round OL then you need to look in rounds 1-3 if you're expecting starting caliber level of S play from a rookie.

They do require seasoning. More than WRs, OLs, and CBs? I'm not sure I agree.

In my observation it is rare to find a rookie starting at FS, especially outside the 1st round.

Also, I don't think we need to base too much of our decision on trying to find a rookie starter. The draft is going to be a losing bet for that. We really need to be using FA to fill the immediate hole for next year. Even if it's with an old guy that's just to be a one or two year stop gap while we groom a younger player (like Mikell).

If I was GM I would always look to first build the team through the draft and if BPA at the position we want to address don't meet then I would look to FA.
But, my aim in FA would be to find a young prospect with both playing experience and upside rather then an older stopgap, which is what we have now.

The discussion originally started about needing an impact safety to field an elite defense and the suggestion was that you find those guys in the first round, usually the early first. My original assertion was that safety is one of the least valuable positions in the draft and that taking one in the first was usually a bad call, and that they should pretty much never be taken in the first half of the first round.

Everything is situationaly relative based on where that team was in their team building process at the time of the draft. If a S is BPA available and you need a S then you draft one.

That's why I made the dichotomy of first rounders vs. 2-7 and I wanted to demonstrate that the guys taken 2-7 are actually better than the first rounders in the successful cases, indicating that the highest end talent at the S position is reliably found outside the first. That's pretty unique among all other positions.

I'm not sure I agree. I would have to see the numbers. First blush tells me that outside of QB when you pit 1st rounders vs 2-7 then the odds will be on the side of quantity regardless of position.
NFC East #1 & 2 WRs:
US-Garcon-not 1st round/Morgan-not 1st round
Bad Guys-Dez 1st round/Austin?-not 1st round
Iggles-DeSeana-not 1st round/Maclin-1st round
Gints-Hakeem-1st round/Cruz-not 1st round

On who you added to the list, I'm not sure Reed, Polamalu, Whitner, Berry, and Barron belong on the list with the other guys this season.

Other then the old/injured guys I don't see why Whitner, Berry and Barron don't belong on the list. We'll just have to agree to disagree on them as a matter of personal preference.

The safety position has about the same positional value as guard does. That's in team building resources--draft picks and FA dollars....Let's say you've got a QB, RB, WR, OT, OG, OC, DE, DT, OLB, ILB, CB, S, K, P to choose from in the draft that are all ranked in the exact same tier. Say you don't need immediate starters at any of those positions.

But when it comes to team building I wouldn't be concerned with perceived value. My main concern is building/improving my team as it is currently constructed. I would aim to use BPA to address the areas that need building/improvement.

[skinzwiz]

Are any of the Saints running backs available for free agency? They have a crowded backfield and I think any of them could excel in this offense. They have Thomas, Sproles, Ivory, Ingram, and Cadet.

---------- Post added December-30th-2012 at 11:29 AM ----------

I love Lache Seastrunk. That is all.

Yeah the guy ran like half of a 70 yard TD run on one leg and still wasn't caught.

[stevemcqueen1]

That makes perfect sense to me because on the field 5 OL plus depth you have often 3/4 WRs plus depth you basically have 2 S and in rare cases 3 S on the field plus depth (special teammer).
Part of the reason is there is simply less on the field demand for S based on numbers and therefore team carry fewer S then they do OL/WR therefore more OL/WRs are drafted.

I think it certainly means that based on sheer numbers. But, if you're talking by percentage then I don't know but I still speculate that since the past few drafts have produced 0 rookie season starting S outside of rounds 1-3 and the WR/OL has produced some rookie season starters outside of rounds 1-3 then I would wager the percentage of rookie season starters post 3rd round is still lower by percentage for S then OL/WR.

Well I guess you would have to go by percentages given the differences in supply & demand to determine a per capita success rate for each position. Unfortunately that would take a lot more work than I'd be willing to put in to figure that out. Plus the sample sizes would probably end up being small. I'm just going to drop the point. It was academic anyway. The intuitive answer is that our odds of finding a rookie starter at any position other than RB outside of the first three rounds are going to be around zero.

But, enough quibling. The overeaching point is that if your looking for a S to come in and start as a rookie, like we are, and your staff doesn't have a special eye for drafting the position like Bobby Turner does w/RB or the developing through scheme like the ZBS for mid/late round OL then you need to look in rounds 1-3 if you're expecting starting caliber level of S play from a rookie.

Yeah I think that is true. Although I'd also point out that we're not likely to see any OL starting as rookies outside the first or second round pick either. Mike doesn't seem to like rookies on his OL. Trent was obviously a different animal being a franchise player and a unique talent.

If I was GM I would always look to first build the team through the draft and if BPA at the position we want to address don't meet then I would look to FA.
But, my aim in FA would be to find a young prospect with both playing experience and upside rather then an older stopgap, which is what we have now.

Our stopgap isn't any good. But that doesn't mean we couldn't get a good one. Quintin Mikell is an old stop gap but PFF has him playing at a Probowl level this season.

But yes, I wouldn't just settle on an old stopgap. I'd draft a young player to groom simultaneously, with the plan to start him by his second or third season.

Everything is situationaly relative based on where that team was in their team building process at the time of the draft. If a S is BPA available and you need a S then you draft one.

But when it comes to team building I wouldn't be concerned with perceived value. My main concern is building/improving my team as it is currently constructed. I would aim to use BPA to address the areas that need building/improvement.

Certainly. My example was about value in a vacuum. That's not going to be the case for any team. Everyone has needs that are more pressing than other positions which are going to change the way they value each prospect. For instance my guess is we'll devalue LT and QB and OLB on our draft board since we have such a concentration of talent there already.

I'm not sure I agree. I would have to see the numbers. First blush tells me that outside of QB when you pit 1st rounders vs 2-7 then the odds will be on the side of quantity regardless of position.
NFC East #1 & 2 WRs:
US-Garcon-not 1st round/Morgan-not 1st round
Bad Guys-Dez 1st round/Austin?-not 1st round
Iggles-DeSeana-not 1st round/Maclin-1st round
Gints-Hakeem-1st round/Cruz-not 1st round

Well if you look at the really cream of the crop WRs, most of them are first rounders and are still with the teams that drafted them:
- Reggie Wayne
- Calvin Johnson
- Andre Johnson
- Larry Fitzgerald
- AJ Green
- Julio Jones
- Roddy White
- Dez Bryant
- Percy Harvin
- Damaryius Thomas
- Hakeem Nicks

There are definitely some outliers in there: Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Cruz, Welker, Garcon, Jordy Nelson. But in general, I think the good WRs go earlier in the draft and are harder to pick up in FA than the safeties. The position has more value.

Other then the old/injured guys I don't see why Whitner, Berry and Barron don't belong on the list. We'll just have to agree to disagree on them as a matter of personal preference.

I'm not a huge fan of Whitner, I think he can be a liability in coverage and is a bit of a weak link in SF's secondary. I thought he was a big bust for the team that originally drafted him too. Berry is ok. He's been a bit disappointing too so far in his career, failing to reach the level of play he showcased as a rookie. I didn't see a lot of Barron this season but I thought he was a pretty big reach where he was drafted. Maybe he'll prove me wrong but I can't see that ending up being a good value pick.

[Chump Bailey]

rd 2 - Oday Aboushi
rd 3 - Will Davis/David Amerson
rd 4 - Margus Hunt
rd 4 - Conner Vernon
rd 5 - Robert Lester
rd 6 - Travis Kelce

or I'd like this too:

rd 2 - Kenny Vaccaro
rd 3 - Montee Ball
rd 4 - Cobi Hamilton
rd 4 - Margus Hunt
rd 5 - Ricky Wagner
rd 6 - Travis Kelce
rd 7 - Quanterus Smith

I'd like:

2nd) CB Aaron Colvin Oklahoma
3rd) OG Alvin Bailey Arkansas
4th) FS DJ Swearinger South Carolina
5th) TE Ryan Otten San Jose State
5th) OT James Hurst North Carolina
6th) OLB DeVonte Holloman South Carolina
7th) OLB Cameron Lawrence Mississippi State