RGIII. Peyton Manning's rookie year. And what we can all learn and take from the comparison.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

As it's Colts week, along with posters fretting what might happen to our HC if we have a sub 6 win season, to go along with the many knee-jerker's after RGIII's first iffy outing (he's a ROOKIE. Go figure); I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the trends through the rookie season of a man I consider to stand parallel alongside ANY GOAT, Peyton Manning. And given Andrew Luck was Universally acclaimed to be the best collegiate QB since #18, and many on here think Robert has an even higher ceiling than Luck; it seemed a topical and interesting comparison to look into.

Peyton's debut season, back in '98, ended with the Colts finishing last in the division at 3-13. He had arguably a better offense than ours, with all time greats Marshall Faulk and Marvin Harrison in their 5th and 3rd years respectively giving him top notch weapons, alongside a career solid TE safety net in Marcus Pollard in his 4th year. Throw in second year LT Tarik Glenn, who was one of the leagues best through his 10 year pro career, and a stronger veteran line than our current mish-mash effort; and he was in a better overall situation than what Robert currently finds himself in. The Colts through that 13 game losing season averaged 19.4 pts. per game on offense.

Peyton's individual numbers finished thus:

16 games started.
575 passing attempts/ 326 completions- 56.7 % completion %.
3,739 passing yards- 234 average per game.
26 TD.
28 INT.
22 Sacks.
71.2 QB rating.

I personally wouldn't be surprised to see Robert have a stat line somewhat similar to that this year, all things considered. (I can hear the thudding hearts of many at the thought of 20 plus INT's as I type. ). And when you break down the season, and how one of the all time greats, which we all hope RGIII will join when alls said and done; started out and improved as he learnt; there's more interesting potential comparisons as to how this year might well go. And folk learning to NOT panic through it all.

The first five games of Peyton's rookie season, the Colts went 1-4. (L 15-24 Dolphins/ L 6-29 @ Rams/ L 6-44 @ Jets/ L 13-19 Saints/ First win in game 5 17-14 vs Bills); with the O averaging 11.4 points per game.

Peyton's passing #'s:

169 attempts/ 93 completions- 55% completion %.
1,129 yards- 226 yards average per game.
3 TD.
12 INT.
11 Sacks.

A VERY rocky start for the Colts and their lorded superstar saviour. (Don't we now have one of those thingies?).

The next five games, the results didn't improve, but the numbers did.

The Colts again went 1-4 through the second third of the year. (L 24-31 Bills/ L 31-38 @ '9ers/ L16-21 Patriots/ L14-27 @ Miami/ W 24-23 vs. Jets.). But the offense upped the points per game by over 10 to 21.4. With three games of 24 points our more, and one over 30. As opposed to a 17 point high the first 5 games.

The rookies #'s also started to improve as he learned and grew:

199 attempts/ 116 completions- 58.3 % completion %. (Up 3.3 %.).
1,160 yards (Up 31 yards)- 232 yards average per game. (Up 6 per game.).
11 TD. (Up 8) + 2 passing PAT.
8 INT. (Down 4.).
2 Sacks. (Down 9.).

Quite a difference from the first 5 games all round.

The third part of the Colts 1998 season was again, like the first 2, a 1-4 span. (L 11-34 Bills/ L 31-38 @ Ravens/ L 21-28 @ Falcons/ W 39-26 vs Bengals/ L 23-27 @ Seahawks.). But again, the Colts offense upped the points per game ratio by over 3 to 25, with 2 more 30 plus games.

Manning's passing #'s began to stabilize out the more experience he got at the pro level:

164 attempts/ 100 completions- 61 % completion %. (Up 2.7 %.).
1,225 yards (Up 65 yards)- 245 yards per game average. (Up 13 yards per game.).
10 TD. (Down 1) + 2 passing PAT.
6 INT. (Down 2.).
4 Sacks. (Up 2.).

For the record, the Colts final game that season ended in a 19-27 home loss to the Panthers. Peyton's numbers: 17/34; 225 yrds; 1 TD; 2 INT; 5 Sacks.

Now the point of all that, aside from personal curiosity in looking at how exactly one of the GOAT started out (and relevant equation as regards Luck and RG3, and what people think of both); was to to try settle people down to NOT overreact if, as is more than likely; both the team and Robert struggle heavily at times this year.

Griff may carry all our hopes and dreams. But he is, when all said and done, a ROOKIE! And he's been as inconsistent and at times down right awful in camp and practice by all accounts like you'd expect a rookie QB to be. I personally fully expect his season to mirror Peyton's rookie year, save for 2 or 3 more (fingers crossed) wins. To start out REAL slow, and make a slew of mistakes as he learns and grows; through steady improvement as the year rolls on.

But the key for EVERYONE is NOT to panic!

We know what we have here. Just like the Colts knew what they had when they drafted the Vol 14 years ago. And IMHO, God willing we'll have a guy to stand comparison to Peyton when all's said and done.

Just give him time to fulfil that promise. And don't hurl yourselves off the ledge if it's not all roses this year for him or the team. This is about continuing to build for 2013/ 14 and beyond and a competitive, year-on-year Washington Redskins going forward. W's aren't at the top of our list of priorities right now, as nice as they are.

Oh, for the record, the year after that 3-13 rookie year ..... the Colts went 13- 3 and won the division, with Manning going to his first pro-bowl as AFC player of the year.

As my mom so knowledgeably used to tell me when I was a 'want it all, and want it NOW!' lil' brat at times:

Patience is a virtue.

Redskin Nation, the time to heed that virtue is now.

Hail.

*Edit* I never bothered including Peyton's rushing stats, as there really is no comparison between the two guys in that regard.

[S.T.real,lights,out]

Nice post GHH. I pretty much feel the same way as you but with how good Cam did last year i think people will be pretty upset if RGIII doesn't match or come close to his numbers.

As long as i see him getting better as the season goes on just like Peyton did i will be happy. I know mistakes are going to happen and im fine with that. Just dont want to see him making the same mistakes week 16 that he was making week 1.

[Fight4RGIII]

I feel like they will be pretty conservative with RG3 this year like a lot of the rookies were handled recently. Limiting the mistakes while not asking him to do too much. A low 20's TD and between 10-15 INTs is what I expect. Also, I don't think he is going to run nearly as much as most expect.

[BornToHail]

I love the analysis! One thing I would consider, though - Indy made the playoffs in '96 before falling off a cliff in '97 (allowing them to draft Manning). The Skins don't have that history.

Your overall point is well taken - we, as fans, need to be patient to let things develop. Unfortunately Cam Newton came in and burst everyone's idea of how rookie QBs perform in the NFL...

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Good post, I really liked seeing the breakdown of Manning's season. Being how quick a learner and how smart everyone says Griffin is, this was a good reminder to keep things in perspective as he learns throughout the season. We are looking for progress from start to finish and we want to see the flashes of greatness become more and more common as the season goes on and he gets comfortable. But there will be struggles.

Honestly, people will be on suicide watch if he starts out in the same manner that Peyton did his first four games. I fortunately would have my good friends, Jack and Coke to help me through, should that happen.

---------- Post added August-22nd-2012 at 10:36 AM ----------

Your overall point is well taken - we, as fans, need to be patient to let things develop. Unfortunately Cam Newton came in and burst everyone's idea of how rookie QBs perform in the NFL...

Yeah Cam really screwed things up. Thats unfortunate but despite the numbers he put up he struggled mightily the second half of the year and threw a lot of INTs too.

[Reic]

This is a great post. I know it will fall on a lot of deaf ears though, as there will still be people clamoring for Shanny's head and RGIII being a bust with those stat lines, and by that 5th game they would already be calling for Kirk Cousins blah blah blah. You know the deal, you have been here long enough.

When it comes to Cam's rookie year, he is the exception, not the rule. Rookies can have an immediate impact, no doubt, and I do believe that RGIII will, but there is only upside in his game. As BorntoHall and Momma said, he came and screwed everything up, he had a rookie season to end all rookie seasons, and it is not a fair comparison to make

[rick7423]

Excellent post GHH. It is so important to put this into the proper perspective. Patience is my mantra for my beloved Skins! We all need to give this time to play itself out.

[Aireskoi]

I love the analysis! One thing I would consider, though - Indy made the playoffs in '96 before falling off a cliff in '97 (allowing them to draft Manning). The Skins don't have that history.

Your overall point is well taken - we, as fans, need to be patient to let things develop. Unfortunately Cam Newton came in and burst everyone's idea of how rookie QBs perform in the NFL...

I think Cam will prove to be 1 of a kind with that rookie year. I have no expectation like that for RG3.

I'm expecting to see a running game that will depend week to week, if it gets on track, Robert will look good to great in with limited attempts.

There will be games that the run game gets shut down and he will have the opportunity to put the team on his back. That's where he could struggle as a rookie, but has the wheels to overcome some of that.

We're going to see, as we already have, some jaw dropping plays. Good and bad.

[CG]

Thanks for the post GHH. Obviously a healthy amount of work went into that.

I think I understand and commiserate with the thrust of your argument - patience is required with rookie QBs and immediate results are not necessarily indicative of a player's career trajectory. Peyton is a pretty miserable comparison for RG3 though.

Michael Vick or Jay Cutler would be much more appropriate in my view. RG3 and Vick are the closest match in terms of athletic ability, although I see RG3 as more of a pure passer. Cutler was in Shanahan's system, and while his mobility is underrated, he's obviously no where near the athlete that RG3 is.

In Vick's first full season as a starter (2002), he played 15 games. Projecting his stats out over a 16 game season would look something like 246/448 (55%) 3100 PYDS 16 PTD, 8 INT with 828 RYDS and 8 RTD. The Falcons went 9-7-1 and won a wild card playoff game against the Green Bay Packers.

In Cutler's first full season as a starter (2007), he played 16 games. He went 297/467 (64%) 3500 PYDS 20 PTD, 14 INT with 205 RYD and 1 RTD. The Broncos went 7-9 and missed the playoffs.


I think that Cutler's passing stats are attainable, although it was Cutler's second year in the system and he did have a few starts in 2006. I don't see RG3 running for 830+ yards, but certainly more than Cutler. 4-600 yards and 5 TDs seems reasonable.

I'm honestly not informed well enough on the state of either the '07 Broncos or the '02 Falcons to comment on how much their QB play contributed to their team success, but I really am not putting a lot of stock into this year's results for the Skins either. We are significanlty hamstrung by salary cap penalties, breaking in almost entirely new offensive personnel at the skill positions, and short on draft picks. I just went to see a threatening offense that progresses as the season moves forward.

[aussieskin]

An excellent thought out and well researched and written observation, and I agree, this won't be our year but next year should be, we need some pieces on the Oline, and the team needs to gell between RG3 and the reciever group (including TE). I also believe we will have a very good running game this year, which should make next season even better, as a good running game improves the passing game, making LB and Defensive secondary second guess makes a much better situation for our Offense. All i want from the "Skins this year is to gell and get some chemistry going.

[Reic]

As these players play together, the rookies and younger players at least, it will begin to slow down for them. I stated a few weeks ago that I am not going to base the progression of this team based on wins and losses, but rather if the offense seems to "get it" as time goes on. There is a ton of football to be had in a single season, and we have no place to go but up with this group, the question is, how far up?

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Yeah CG, pound-for-pound their not the best two to make a comparison with. Robert brings things to the table the Peyton never had in his locker, and Peyton has attributes, non more so than mentally; we all hope Robert acquires as he grows.

But being as many here think Griff is gona' be better than Luck, and Luck was widely acclaimed to be the best coming out since Manning; along with the way that season played out for both player and team and the very recent knee-jerk reactions as regards ourselves going forward on the boards; it seemed a topical point of interest to look at.

Thanks for the kind words though one and all.

Hail.

[Reic]

An excellent thought out and well researched and written observation, and I agree, this won't be our year but next year should be, we need some pieces on the Oline, and the team needs to gell between RG3 and the reciever group (including TE). I also believe we will have a very good running game this year, which should make next season even better, as a good running game improves the passing game, making LB and Defensive secondary second guess makes a much better situation for our Offense. All i want from the "Skins this year is to gell and get some chemistry going.

When all is said in done, all we should draft next year is Oline and secondary, thats it

---------- Post added August-22nd-2012 at 10:57 AM ----------

An excellent thought out and well researched and written observation, and I agree, this won't be our year but next year should be, we need some pieces on the Oline, and the team needs to gell between RG3 and the reciever group (including TE). I also believe we will have a very good running game this year, which should make next season even better, as a good running game improves the passing game, making LB and Defensive secondary second guess makes a much better situation for our Offense. All i want from the "Skins this year is to gell and get some chemistry going.

When all is said in done, all we should draft next year is Oline and secondary, thats it

[Pick6]

Whatever RG3 does this year is okay with me. I would like to see improvement as the season goes forward, but I will not be calling for the benching of RG3 ever.

[Missouri_Skins_Fan]

Honestly, the game isn't played the same way now, like it was in 98'.
QB's were still managed the same way or very similar to that of the past.

I think with the game becoming pass happy, like it is
The rules changing yearly to favor the QB,(penalties...low hit to the legs...leading with helmet, slapping the head,etc...basically, personal fouls for breathing on the QB)
Then there's the WR advantages, they didn't have back in the day, that they have now.

IMO, is a huge reason, if not the biggest
that QB's numbers are inflating & rookies are performing more successfully as rookies, than they used too before.

Think about it for a second?
Drew Brees beats Marino's record
And how many QB's threw for over 5000 yards besides Brees?

Tom Brady & Matt Stafford.

Did you know Eli had 4,933 yards as well. He too, almost his the mark.

10/32 NFL QB's threw for over 4000 yards.

That's 1/3 of the League

So yes, If this was 1998 and RG3 was a rookie?
Then yes, having a year like P. Manning's rookie year, would definitely be acceptable here.

But now...2012?
I'm thinking it would be quite a disappointment, if RG3 doesn't at least put up similar numbers as Andy Dalton last year.

Which was 3,398 passing yards
20 TD's
13 int's
58%

And guess what?
Andy was a 2nd rd pick.

Not the #2 pick in the draft.

If RG3 can't hit those numbers in a 16 game season.
I'm not going to panic or jump off a cliff.

But I'm going to start looking at him as Spider-man, rather than Superman.

I'm not expecting Playoffs like Dalton did for the Bengals, but I'm expecting similar numbers.
No excuses imo, as both Divisions are very comparable in strength as well.

That's my take, anyways.