Unemployment falls below 8

[AsburySkinsFan]

Major revisions to the two prior months numbers
http://www.businessinsider.com/septe...report-2012-10

Maybe they have trouble counting??

So you're taking the position that they are lying? Or are you oing to go all Faux News and sit back and insinuate rather than actually take a position and support it with actual evidence.

[Larry]

Major revisions to the two prior months numbers
http://www.businessinsider.com/septe...report-2012-10

Yes.

They announced that they were better than the estimates.

[AsburySkinsFan]

Yes.

They announced that they were better than the estimates.

You apparently don't understand the game, see, when there is good news for America and a Democrat is in office you must first question the news and then imply shady dealings. You don't ever have to try and substantiate the crap you imply you just have to feed the base a shred of doubt for them to cling to the truth that Obama is indeed the worst president in history.

[Prosperity]

The Gallup unemployment rate poll was at 8.1% so I doubt that there is some conspiracy to lower the #'s, they don't seem too far off

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157871/un...september.aspx

(and they had the rate at lower levels in the summer, which corroborates the retrospective revision upward)

[SkinsHokieFan]

Excellent news.

Now hopefully people actually, you know, feel this. On the ground, unless you are in the DC area (yay me) its still appears very rough.

[twa]

Yes.

They announced that they were better than the estimates.

Yes, but are the numbers NOW accurate when they were not before?

Maybe the unemployment is actually 6.9 ....since they were off so much earlier

variations on that scale would find my accountant unemployed

[Skinz4Life12]

democrat or republican, this is great news

[ptr77]

Yes, but are the numbers NOW accurate when they were not before?

Maybe the unemployment is actually 6.9 ....since they were off so much earlier

variations on that scale would find my accountant unemployed

You would fire your accountant for making an estimate and then revising it with the actual numbers?

[twa]

You would fire your accountant for making an estimate and then revising it with the actual numbers?

So you are saying the 7.9 now is simply a estimate or the actual number?

[DjTj]

So you are saying the 7.9 now is simply a estimate or the actual number?

It is an estimate. These numbers are always estimates. We do not survey every single American every month to ask them whether or not they are working.

[SkinsHokieFan]

There is no conspiracy to manipulate data. People are hiring and productivity is still sky high, which means more people need to be hired

7.8% still sucks. The trend is good however and hopefully this starts to pick up momentum before the fiscal cliff hits.

If it appears the job market is trending up, hopefully this means QE4 won't become a reality and we see gains across the broader economy

[SkinsHokieFan]

It is an estimate. These numbers are always estimates. We do not survey every single American every month to ask them whether or not they are working.

We could be growing at 4.5% right now.

Or be in a recession at the moment as we were in December '07 when the economy felt fine.

Its impossible to know what the economy is doing "right now" which is why there are so many revisions going forward.

I have interviewed at and know too many people at BLS. These people aren't in the "lets make the incumbent President look good" business

[Rdskns2000]

Let's see what the numbers are after Obama's reelection, if they are still the same or trending downward; then it's for real.

As Bill Clinton says, people have to feel it. For those who are early voting now; if they feel the trend is positive; then Obama has no worries. A vast majority in the swing states have to not feel it, for Obama to lose.

Considering they revise the numbers every month; I will wait to see if we have real improvement or not.

[DjTj]

We could be growing at 4.5% right now.

Or be in a recession at the moment as we were in December '07 when the economy felt fine.

Its impossible to know what the economy is doing "right now" which is why there are so many revisions going forward.

I have interviewed at and know too many people at BLS. These people aren't in the "lets make the incumbent President look good" business

I also think it's important to note that, even though the number is likely to be revised later, it is the *best* estimate they can come up with right now. It is impossible to be absolutely correct (short of forcing every American to report their daily employment status to the government), but their job is to do the best that they can.

edit: I found a technical note to the BLS data, which explains that there is an expected sampling error of around 100,000 jobs and a 90% confidence interval for the unemployment rate of +/- 0.19% (when unemployment is around 5.5%).

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

Assuming that the error will increase with the square root of the unemployment rate, that would put the confidence interval at +/-0.23% for this estimate. That means that BLS is estimating that there is a 90% chance that the true unemployment rate is between 7.6% and 8.0%.

Yes, but are the numbers NOW accurate when they were not before?

Maybe the unemployment is actually 6.9 ....since they were off so much earlier

variations on that scale would find my accountant unemployed

It depends on what you have hired your accountant to do. If you are giving your accountant records of every single transaction you have made, and they are supposed to add those up, then yes, you should fire an accountant who is off by a few percentage points.

But if you are asking your accountant to estimate the productivity of your workforce based on a survey of a representative sample of your employees, then an error of a few percentage points would be perfectly reasonable.

[ptr77]

So you are saying the 7.9 now is simply a estimate or the actual number?

Ah I see your point. So since all these numbers don't come from polling every American, they are all worthless. Unless of course they show very high unemployment, then they are definitely completely 100% accurate and above reproach and questioning.

You can chose to believe the numbers or not. The possibility of the job market turning around doesn't mean Obama is doing a good job. Just like someone being happy about these numbers doesn't automatically make them a democrat.